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On February 02 2011 02:59 Beneather wrote:
I think it'd be smarter to get the population for Blues since we know the number of Mafia so we just minus the #of mafia to the # of players and we'll get the population of the SK. Either was is good just a thing that I wanted to pointed out..
I have been inactive because of exams.. I will be more active now.
Bad logic, Mate. There are four allignments that can be checked: Red, Blue, Green, and Black.
We know the total, and we know the # of red. If we check the # of Blues, that leaves us with one equation,(Total = Red + Blue + Green + Black) and two unknowns. (Black, and Green) Unsolvable.
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On February 01 2011 23:16 Eti307 wrote:
I'm sorry I don't have the time to keep up actively with this thread.
...
If you can replace me go ahead.. if not I'll still read the thread and vote
Nothing personal, but I strongly support this notion. Come back later when you have time. M
Mods, do you have anyone willing to replace?
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In regards to GMarshal being Mafia\SK:
No. There's behavioral analysis behind it, not even clue analysis. It's all speculation based off the "Wouldn't it be interesting if..." It's a pointless discussion that's not going to go anywhere without behavioral analysis to support it, and right now, that analysis doesn't support it.
In regards to Beneather being Mafia:
Yes. It's likely that he is mafia. Yes, I regret my hasty choice, picking him as BG sucks. Remember, I screwed my self over by not realizing that the BG choices had to be submitted BEFORE I was mayor.
No. We shouldn't lynch him yet. Lynching BG's this early is a bad idea, and I'm not saying that because I'm the mayor.
Talking about these two will only waste time for now. Let them keep posting, and let's move our attention elsewhere for now. For at least tonight, I think we should pressure Zerroth, Papapanda, and Divinek. While I think that the posting demographic isn't super likely to have mafia in it, it's going to be the hardest demographic to analyze. If anyone else has targets to put out there, please, do so.
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On February 02 2011 03:10 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 23:16 Eti307 wrote:
I'm sorry I don't have the time to keep up actively with this thread.
...
If you can replace me go ahead.. if not I'll still read the thread and vote Nothing personal, but I strongly support this notion. Come back later when you have time. M Mods, do you have anyone willing to replace?
Nope, we are searching though.
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On February 02 2011 03:27 Kavdragon wrote:
In regards to GMarshal being Mafia\SK:
No. There's behavioral analysis behind it, not even clue analysis. It's all speculation based off the "Wouldn't it be interesting if..." It's a pointless discussion that's not going to go anywhere without behavioral analysis to support it, and right now, that analysis doesn't support it.
In regards to Beneather being Mafia:
Yes. It's likely that he is mafia. Yes, I regret my hasty choice, picking him as BG sucks. Remember, I screwed my self over by not realizing that the BG choices had to be submitted BEFORE I was mayor.
No. We shouldn't lynch him yet. Lynching BG's this early is a bad idea, and I'm not saying that because I'm the mayor.
Talking about these two will only waste time for now. Let them keep posting, and let's move our attention elsewhere for now. For at least tonight, I think we should pressure Zerroth, Papapanda, and Divinek. While I think that the posting demographic isn't super likely to have mafia in it, it's going to be the hardest demographic to analyze. If anyone else has targets to put out there, please, do so.
I'd suggest doing so after daybreak, don't give mafia reasons to kill you if you come up with a strong analysis on one of them. Or SK for that matter.
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In regard of the Beneather/Bodyguard case:
-Yes, he is scummy like hell, but how sure are we that he is scum. For now, we'll keep him as bodyguard.
-Census is important. Yes, we aren't 100% sure that Kav is town. But he is very likely to be town or he is telling the truth about the census (imagine a dt counter claim that a mafia was killed but Kav still say mafia number remains the same).
-GMarshall is telling the truth about being targeted by a kill. Very stupid for SK to target him since town is getting owned and SK can't win against mafia after town crumbles. Mafia is the likely attacker and that means mafia is going for the census.
-Until GMarshall is killed, our census is in good shape.
-After GMarshall is killed, Kav is very likely to be wide open since Beneather is likely to be scum. The thing is once mafia killed Kav, we will know that Beneather is mafia or SK (not likely, SK wants to stay alive and not volunteer as bodyguard to be exposed). So we don't need to risk a lynch on Beneather.
-If mafia don't care about census, we can let Beneather live for now.
-If mafia wants to kill the census, then they will have to kill Beneather themselves (slight possibility that he is town) or confirm Beneather is mafia by just killing Kav.
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Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play.
Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice.
I'll start:
DT's:
Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him.
Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.)
Medics:
Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again.
Vig:
My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure.
Vet's:
Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields.
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On February 02 2011 04:43 Kavdragon wrote:Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play. Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice. I'll start: DT's: Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him. Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.) Medics: Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again. Vig: My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure. Vet's: Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they stack their hit on me tonight. Wouldn't bother me much either.
I honestly believe Nemesis was SK. Night kill totals will determine that however.
If we have any Detectives (I'm assuming we don't. It's safer) but if we do I would urge you to check on BrownBear and Impervious.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2011 04:43 Kavdragon wrote:Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play. Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice. I'll start: DT's: Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him. Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.) Medics: Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again. Vig: My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure. Vet's: Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields.
Don't forget mason as well. He should be blue hunting. DT will probably need to claim and give some results tomorrow. BGs are always good, and try your best to predict a hit (someone who becomes very vocal at a certain point, someone who catches your eye). Unless a vig feels very vulnerable, I think he should save hits from people like zerroth or D3 and wait for a situation where we KNOW someone is red. But of course, pop it if you are in danger. If jackal is a vet I am worried for what the rest of our vets are like.
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm...
When you judge someone, spread it into three parts, and keep them separate. Behavior comes first, then the information available and then clues. Don't disregard them, you just need to develop an eye for them, which I obviously haven't yet -_-
If there is no information available about that person, then you can extend the analysis into 2/3 of your opinion.
That sheep pic is cruel, but helpful, as it is likely that nemesis is town and not SK. Bum is 0 for 2!
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Lol, your death would be an EPIC mafia fail.
Firstly, you are a vig. Mafia avoid them like the plague. (You still absorb the hits.)
Secondly, you were almost lynched. What happened to the last guy that was almost lynched? He got lynched the next day. People are suspicious of you, regardless of how good/bad the logic is.
Why would the mafia kill you? I mean, Mafia, please, by all means stack your hits on him, I think that would be fantastic. The less deaths the better.
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Err. ^^ directed to Jackal58's post.
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On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm...
Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda?
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On February 02 2011 05:10 Kavdragon wrote:
Lol, your death would be an EPIC mafia fail.
Firstly, you are a vig. Mafia avoid them like the plague. (You still absorb the hits.)
Secondly, you were almost lynched. What happened to the last guy that was almost lynched? He got lynched the next day. People are suspicious of you, regardless of how good/bad the logic is.
Why would the mafia kill you? I mean, Mafia, please, by all means stack your hits on him, I think that would be fantastic. The less deaths the better.
I'm not a vig. I'm a vet. And yes the less deaths the better.
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On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote:the only clue i could find Show nested quote +He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58Steeler picture in profile
On January 30 2011 12:06 Coagulation wrote:
Steel
On January 30 2011 14:01 Coagulation wrote:
A vote for jackal is a Vote for TOWN!
On January 30 2011 13:09 Coagulation wrote:
blocked you say?
Kinda like they do in football?
STEELers
Can we ban Coag from clue analysis? We posts all this then right before the lynch he tells everyone whos voting for jackal that they are mafia. This is a good vig hit, because lynchng him would lead to mindless conversations and hard to interpret WIFOM about coag's play.
Looking back, zerroth pointed at the clues on beneather first, so if both he and beneather are red, he has to be bussing. Or he is town. I'd like for you to look again at who you are suggesting to get vig hit, kav. Or at least explain it to we lesser mortals.
Im going to look into siniquity, as I have my suspicions, but as for now, please do not make a repeat of yesterday's lynch. Looking at everyone's posts, it's just awful for town to either let mafia create a scenario like that where people start posting clues and let arguements build up over small suggestions. What's worse, is that situation was likely to have been town induced. Do not make yourself a coag.
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On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda?
Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said.
Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason.
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On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2011 04:43 Kavdragon wrote:Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play. Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice. I'll start: DT's: Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him. Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.) Medics: Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again. Vig: My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure. Vet's: Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields. Don't forget mason as well. He should be blue hunting. DT will probably need to claim and give some results tomorrow. BGs are always good, and try your best to predict a hit (someone who becomes very vocal at a certain point, someone who catches your eye). Unless a vig feels very vulnerable, I think he should save hits from people like zerroth or D3 and wait for a situation where we KNOW someone is red. But of course, pop it if you are in danger. If jackal is a vet I am worried for what the rest of our vets are like. I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... When you judge someone, spread it into three parts, and keep them separate. Behavior comes first, then the information available and then clues. Don't disregard them, you just need to develop an eye for them, which I obviously haven't yet -_- If there is no information available about that person, then you can extend the analysis into 2/3 of your opinion. That sheep pic is cruel, but helpful, as it is likely that nemesis is town and not SK. Bum is 0 for 2!
I'll accept full responsibility for poor veteran play on my part. Yes I'm new. Yes this is the first time I've had a role other than vanilla townie. Do I see where I've made errors? Yes. Will it improve my play in future games? Of course. Can I change anything I've done up to this point? No.
And I have yet to have anybody tell me how a veteran should play. Nor have I seen anything special in the other games I've been in to identify a player as vet. They've all been lynched in the games I've been in.
None claimed flat out to be a vet prior to being lynched. Although I do believe either RoL or LSB claimed to be blue without being specific. And without any result. They were still lynched. Town went on to lose.
So I claim what I am. I have no prior precedent to look at except lynched Vets. That doesn't help town. So I claim what I am. I don't know if my claim prevented my lynch. But I'm still an extra townie with an extra night life.
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On February 02 2011 05:30 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote:On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said. Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason.
What exactly is my "job"
People keep telling me what a horrid job I'm doing without saying how it should be played. 
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On February 02 2011 05:42 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 05:30 bumatlarge wrote:On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote:On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said. Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason. What exactly is my "job" People keep telling me what a horrid job I'm doing without saying how it should be played.
To get hit/killed. To be a good target for mafia. To not almost get lynched.
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On February 02 2011 05:45 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 05:42 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 05:30 bumatlarge wrote:On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote:On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said. Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason. What exactly is my "job" People keep telling me what a horrid job I'm doing without saying how it should be played. To get hit/killed. To be a good target for mafia. To not almost get lynched.
Well I'm one step ahead of some others I've played with.
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On February 02 2011 05:26 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote:the only clue i could find He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58Steeler picture in profile Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 14:01 Coagulation wrote:
A vote for jackal is a Vote for TOWN! Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 13:09 Coagulation wrote:
blocked you say?
Kinda like they do in football?
STEELers Can we ban Coag from clue analysis? We posts all this then right before the lynch he tells everyone whos voting for jackal that they are mafia. This is a good vig hit, because lynchng him would lead to mindless conversations and hard to interpret WIFOM about coag's play. Looking back, zerroth pointed at the clues on beneather first, so if both he and beneather are red, he has to be bussing. Or he is town. I'd like for you to look again at who you are suggesting to get vig hit, kav. Or at least explain it to we lesser mortals. Im going to look into siniquity, as I have my suspicions, but as for now, please do not make a repeat of yesterday's lynch. Looking at everyone's posts, it's just awful for town to either let mafia create a scenario like that where people start posting clues and let arguements build up over small suggestions. What's worse, is that situation was likely to have been town induced. Do not make yourself a coag.
NopE
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EPT
