EPTTL Mafia XXXVI - Page 77
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Let's start relying less on clues, which we have apparently be pretty terrible at, and rely on behavioral analysis. That will always work. But please, before you do, read the post on who it should be done. I'm guilty of some of the things mentioned in there, but I'm new and I'm learning, so I'll try harder, and next time we'll see if I can pin a scum. It can't just be me though. We need our help. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Actually, as part of the behavioral analysis, it would be fun to go back and see if I can see any people that were trying to gently encourage the steelers clue. I'll do it tomorrow though, for right now I gotta sleep. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
LSB: A tip, if you can figure out what clues I wrote, and which one Node wrote, it could be useful Just to intrude for a moment here. This is like saying "If you see the difference between what I perceived the inkblots to be, or what Node perceived the inkblots to be then you would have a better chance of figuring out what the inkblots the clues link to. For example, Node might look at a picture of a Banana and think of monkeys, while LSB would look at the same picture and think of a dick. So half the clues are about a monkey and the other half are about a dick. Edit: Then the person reading the clues might think of video games (donkey kong) relating to the clue or a picture of a superhero in someones profile. IE: Your at square one. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
For example, Node might look at a picture of a Banana and think of monkeys, while LSB would look at the same picture and think of a dick. So half the clues are about a monkey and the other half are about a dick. This quote deserved to be quoted. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
General posting style: HPmafia: Played as town/blue, active, underlined he was new, and got so suspicious he got killed off night 1 by a town busdriver. Posted more in 1 day 1 night than in this entire game. Discussed the mayor selection freely. Example: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2010 10:54 Beneather wrote: Yeah, that is true. Disregard my post I wasn't really thinking of it like that. But if he was mafia and just Lynch somebody important that is contributing a lot and helping the town find the mafia. We could just lynch the mayor. It really depends if the person turns out to be a mafia or a townie right? I think someone isn't stupid enough just to lynch a random person without the town approving it then we could just lynch the mayor right? Im really unexperienced please stop me if I'm acting noobie? Alot of back and forth, but posting without fear. Has alot of thoughts on how mayor should use his power, something he hasn't adressed in this game. PYP3: Played as town. It was an active game, but he had more than twice his posts in this game, and that game was pretty short. Example of Beneather scumhunting: + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2011 06:49 Beneather wrote: HaploPaithan you have to have reasons on why we have you can't just blindly say something with out any reason to back up your statement. That's just basically 1 line spamming. Why do we have to worry about CopyCat he will only copycat someone that has a good role and that he knows it for sure or he'll be just wasting his powers blindly and might get some bad role or something. The only time CopyCat will work is if people start claiming and he can just copycat that role if it's good also it would be good to see if their lying about their role. It really can be used as a Detective tool as well. So what are you thinking that CopyCat is a bad role ? He has yet to post anything regarding other people's posting in this game. Present game: A lot of empty posts: + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 11:00 Beneather wrote: ITs TIME!! :D FINALLY! On January 23 2011 11:23 Beneather wrote: /confrim On January 24 2011 09:42 Beneather wrote: We're not suppose to be voting yet. The thread will be created on the Day 1. Right now it's Night 0. So we can't vote yet. On January 26 2011 12:19 Beneather wrote: I don't think its counted since it was too late so it really doesn't matter. His activity is way lower than in his games as town, yet a good part of his posts are empty. Suspicious posts:+ Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 05:38 Beneather wrote: Alright we have 2 people running for mayor. 1. KavDragon 2. Kitaman KavDragon has brought up strong points of having scum bodyguards which most agree to. Aswell other stated if the mayor dies and without any death of the bodyguards then the bodyguards are scum and we can just lynch them. Kitaman hasn't brought up any points in his run for mayor. It's all basically saying that we should vote for him because he is better than KavDragon etc. Also saying that KavDragon is red because he's a communist russian etc. These are the only 2 running so far and if I had to vote now it'd be KavDragon since he had brought up a lot of good points and could be a huge asset to the town. There are a few more ideas that Mr.Wiggles had to that I agree with but I think KavDragon can incorporate those in to his plans. This rang the alarm for me. First of all he summarizes instead of discussing the candidates. He doesn’t question the plans of the mayor more than what Mr.Wiggles has said. No independent thoughts, no contribution. Personally I don’t believe in scumslips, but it’s worth mentioning: + Show Spoiler + On January 26 2011 15:39 Beneather wrote: I meant the number of deaths the town is going to have. Badly worded I guess. Argues for SK checking, first time he really shows an opinion on plans. Suspicious choice of words. Vote reasons: + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2011 05:51 Beneather wrote: Looks like DocH dropped out? I guess that my vote will be going to KavDragon since I agree with most of his points. Except for choosing Volunteered BGs because that just allows Mafia to pick them off for free since which was stated post before this. Let's talk about the lynch for this day. I read that if we vote for KavDragon that he would lynch OriginalName since his prof. looks like the best relation to the clues. I support this he has been inactive and also looks like a smurf cause when he joined it seemed that he played a game before but only had 60-70 posts. His reasons for day 1 vote. Kinda weird reasoning for lynching OriginalName, he doesn’t seem to really think ON is scum. After this Kav chooses him as BG. He has yet to talk about this! GMarshal and Kav has had some cute back and forth about it, but Beneather has not even mentioned it. A mafia is probably not too happy about the spotlight, but on the other hand that choice of BG probably has saved his life, and lets him get away with scummy afk play. Reasons for voting day 2: + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2011 14:37 Beneather wrote: I'm very in the middle between RoL and Nemesis. The Analyzing of bum on RoL's post really show that the clues are going towards him but LD made a point that some clues are going Nemesis. Can they both be mafia? or 1 Sk and 1 is Scum? I'll be voting for RoL... We NEED YOU to claim if you were VISITED LAST NIGHT!!!! Doesn’t actually give any reasons, just bandwagons. The reasons for choosing RoL over Nemesis aren’t exactly clear. Raises FoS against both Nemesis and RoL. Last question is again relevant. He has no posts before the next day. Reasons for voting day 3: + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2011 14:32 Beneather wrote: It really does look like Jackal is scum from what the clues point to. The points addressed in posts before this make sense and it looks like he's scum. More bandwagon. Again just quotes posts before him. Day post reactions: + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2011 11:08 Beneather wrote: ^ was about to ask that question? Or Did the Mafia and SK visit the same person. Do people know if they were visited? On January 27 2011 11:16 Beneather wrote: Wait so you were hit? I'm confused. The chances of that ever happening are very slim but I think that they both win? Since both are SK and they cant kill eachother. Nothing much here, relevant questions but doesn’t say anything of his alignment. And lastly + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2011 08:47 Beneather wrote: If GMarshal was SK and his computer broke that would mean he was unable to send in his hit making it a 1 KP night. He claimed saying he got but was protected by a medic to cover that up but in reality he is SK and look like he's contributing. Wow some pretty heavy fingerpointing there Beneather, don’t you think you should clarify this? Conclusion: Way lower activity than usual. Excessive bandwagoning. No scumhunting, but interested in SK. Zero contribution. He has completely ignored that he got chosen as BG. This to me signifies he doesn’t like it. A green would be happy to get a more special role. Only a mafia or a blue would dislike the attention, ergo he isn't green. He has posted relevant questions after day posts, which to me shows he is following the thread, and is not just a bored/busy townie. In HPmafia he was a DT, but that didn't make him lurk like this, and stop contributing. Verdict: Mafia Why did you have to pick him as BG Kav? It’s about the only reason I can see not to lynch him. I plan to post a few more analysis on my suspects today or tomorrow as time allows it. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 29 2011 10:19 Barundar wrote: And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this. On January 29 2011 10:34 CubEdIn wrote: I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies. It is time. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
Also, that was a horrible lynch, I hope to god Nemesis was SK because he sure as hell wasn't mafia. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4211 Posts
On February 01 2011 15:13 Coagulation wrote: so that pic pretty much confirms jackal is town How so? All it does is tell us we're fucking idiots for following the clues like we have been. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
On February 01 2011 19:47 Impervious wrote: How so? All it does is tell us we're fucking idiots for following the clues like we have been. No, it tells us we've been analysing the clues the wrong way. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4211 Posts
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papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
a) mafia just are not killing kav and try to mindfuck town b) kav is mafia c) kav is SK All three are kinda messed up so im guessing that some of the accusation towards beneather or gmarshal are wrong. | ||
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papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
On February 01 2011 19:51 Impervious wrote: It doesn't exclude or confirm him as any role though..... Yes, people are looking into it too much imo. On February 01 2011 22:13 papapanda wrote: Some scenarios to consider if beneather and gmarshal are red(s or SKs): a) mafia just are not killing kav and try to mindfuck town b) kav is mafia c) kav is SK All three are kinda messed up so im guessing that some of the accusation towards beneather or gmarshal are wrong. Don't forget that if GMarshal is SK and beneather is mafia, then mafia would think they need to kill GMarshal before they can target kav. This scenario coupled with GMarshal not being around during the night would explain why: -SK didn't send in a hit -GMarshal claimed medic saved. GMarshal would have to claim hit or mafia would know for certain he is SK. Claiming vet is riskier than claiming medic save in this setup imo. We absolutely no way of verifying if he's telling the truth or not, as asking the medic who saved him to claim would be stupid. Again, this is all theory. I'm not accusing GMarshal of being scum/SK yet. I wouldn't be surprised if mafia decide to sack beneather by killing kav tonight if they think GMarshal is SK. Beneather is getting lynched tomorrow anyway, so they get mayor and SK for free. Might not be a bad idea to have a medic on kav just in case. (Yes I know this is a turnaround from my previous position, but after thinking about it my plan was too risky) | ||
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Eti307
Canada3442 Posts
I don't like being that inactive... but between a new job and finishing school I can't follow this constantly. If you can replace me go ahead.. if not I'll still read the thread and vote | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 01 2011 13:27 Kavdragon wrote: Cool. With that out of the way, I'll wait a little longer for dissenting voices, then turn in the request for Mafia. We are going to eventually need a number on the SK population. I'd get that tonight. If we know that number it eliminates people guessing about vig shots. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On February 02 2011 02:14 Jackal58 wrote: We are going to eventually need a number on the SK population. I'd get that tonight. If we know that number it eliminates people guessing about vig shots. For now it's more important to know if we're correct about lynches. Number of kills were low, so most likely we have 2 mafia KPs and 1 SK. If the number of KPs starts fluctuating inexplicably, then sure, we could, but so far we have no idea whatsoever about who is mafia. A confirmed red kill would allow us to get a lot of information. Basically, if Nemesis wasn't mafia, we have a good deal of information on the people who pushed on him during the past two days. | ||
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Beneather
Canada451 Posts
I have been inactive because of exams.. I will be more active now. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
Oh we have 8 blues, that's AWESOME! Just like the number of SKs, if we find out that there is 1sk or 2sk, how will that help town? At best we'll realize that there are people who did not claim hits, but then what? But if we know if our lynch is correct, it will open up new doors. | ||
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