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On February 02 2011 13:23 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:13 Divinek wrote:
allow me to ellaborate on my earlier point
having TWO kp per cycle is not as beneficial to town, because we have less information. As you can tell thus far our kill selections have been off the mark. The longer the game goes on the more info we get (clues + analysis) so the fewer kills the better. THUS only mafia would want to keep an SK alive to limit the amount of info town can get from clues (as some clues go to sk) and just plain THE GAME ENDS SOONER
Sure the game ends sooner,but now we dont have to ask vigis to hit inactives we can direct which inactives get hit by our SK and then focus the lynch on the scummiest target around, if we decide for some reason that we are going through people to fast we lynch lunar. I dont see what your issue with this plan is
he has absolutely no reason to listen to us
Assume he goes okay guys i am dah sk. IF he listens we know it's him and he dies, if he does not listen he dies. HE CANNOT WIN with either of these conditions (besides all previously stated wifom)
So his best bet is to deny all claims against him obviously.
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On February 02 2011 13:50 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote:
LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified This is a scum deviation of town interest. FoS right back at you.
have you read anything ive said? You just say something without explaining any reasoning behind it. That is a mafia way of posting to avoid slip ups because their reasoning is different naturally.
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On February 02 2011 14:14 GMarshal wrote:
I'm going to throw this out there, since this a clue based analysis game, its quite possible that there are no dts much like in the minimafia game,
All of these roles will appear in this game in some capacity, and there will be no roles that aren't on this list.
I think that means there has to be at least one of each role in the game. The in some capacity thing confuses me, but im pretty sure all of the roles have to appear.
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On February 02 2011 15:32 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 15:07 Coagulation wrote:
kav what are you doing man.
are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk? Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic: Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right? Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III) I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand. Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum. I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been. Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely). The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT.
mmmm i think a DT's value goes up a little bit in a non flip game. Im really confused why you're trying to defend a checked SK over a DT. Sure an sk can help town out, but at this point he has been identified, he has no more need to help town because he will surely die. Well that's not true he could some how not die if town listens to retarded suggestions like keeping him alive.
Your reasoning really has started to sway to making less sense, and it is of course entirely possible that you could be mafia. I don't care overly much to entertain the idea one way or another, but I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. Why would anyone else possibly finger him? Sure bum could be mafia, but even if bum was I still think lunar would be SK regardless because a mafia coming out like this would still be fairly sure of an SK. But I think it's much much more likely that bum really is a DT and lunar is almost certainly an SK.
If you are scum, and you do a census tonight you could simply lie to us about the SK number and then we end up lynching our DT the next day. etc etc
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On February 03 2011 02:45 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote:On February 02 2011 15:32 Kavdragon wrote:On February 02 2011 15:07 Coagulation wrote:
kav what are you doing man.
are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk? Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic: Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right? Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III) I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand. Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum. I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been. Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely). The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT. mmmm i think a DT's value goes up a little bit in a non flip game. Im really confused why you're trying to defend a checked SK over a DT. Sure an sk can help town out, but at this point he has been identified, he has no more need to help town because he will surely die. Well that's not true he could some how not die if town listens to retarded suggestions like keeping him alive. Your reasoning really has started to sway to making less sense, and it is of course entirely possible that you could be mafia. I don't care overly much to entertain the idea one way or another, but I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. Why would anyone else possibly finger him? Sure bum could be mafia, but even if bum was I still think lunar would be SK regardless because a mafia coming out like this would still be fairly sure of an SK. But I think it's much much more likely that bum really is a DT and lunar is almost certainly an SK. If you are scum, and you do a census tonight you could simply lie to us about the SK number and then we end up lynching our DT the next day. etc etc I explained why actually being a DT is not actually helpful to the town at this point. Mafia can, and likely will kill him before he can get another check in. I specifically asked that my bad logic be pointed out, not generally lumped up. Be specific. Any scum can generalize and give good general advice to the town. Show me where my logic breaks down. Also, why the sudden flurry of activity? You've been very inactive up till now. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I hope it continues, but why now? (More importantly, why not before?)
You're right. But it is entirely within the realm of possibility that we have more than one medic, so bum is not guaranteed to die tonight, unless mafia wish to stack on him.
I'm more active now because my exams are over lol, and people wanting to keep an SK alive makes me rage. At least their logic behind it does, so i must post my raaaaaaage.
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On February 03 2011 14:05 Kavdragon wrote:What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case.
This is true if the SK is UNKNOWN. But once he's out there the mafia wants to keep him alive, because he's alot more likely to hit town than mafia, because town often mis lynch all the time. So the SK co-operating with town in an ideal situation would only end the game sooner because you are killing people fast with LESS information. (besides at this point in the game there still seem to be alot more townies alive than mafia so he wants to kill townies till the numbers get closer i would think)
Also, if the sk is discovered he does not GIVE A FUCK. He is fucked, he has to deny all accusations and not listen to people or it makes him look like what he is, a dead man.
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the amount of mindless sheep in these games hurts my soul
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On February 04 2011 07:45 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2011 07:27 Divinek wrote:
the amount of mindless sheep in these games hurts my soul You need to change your vote. Or do you have a problem with lynching scum maybe?
im more confident that lunar is SK than either of these people are scum. I believe in standing by my vote and not sheeping like everyone else. I think killing SK is priority over killing people faster, they do seem likely scum, but it's more like that ones scum and one is not or something and id rather not kill one townie sooner.
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On February 04 2011 08:02 Coagulation wrote:
jesus christ divinek we got fucking evidence that bum is scum and your gonna ignore it saying you "dont wanna be a sheep"
What the fuck is wrong with you.
You have got to be kidding
what evidence do you have? I might have missed it, all i read over the thread were people saying he's scum and there was an analysis posted and it was alright, but not nearly as convincing as 100% sk.
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On February 04 2011 08:24 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2011 08:13 Divinek wrote:On February 04 2011 08:02 Coagulation wrote:
jesus christ divinek we got fucking evidence that bum is scum and your gonna ignore it saying you "dont wanna be a sheep"
What the fuck is wrong with you.
You have got to be kidding
what evidence do you have? I might have missed it, all i read over the thread were people saying he's scum and there was an analysis posted and it was alright, but not nearly as convincing as 100% sk. Mod confirmed Bum lied
oh rofl, well if that's convincing evidence then sure ill take 99% scum over 100% sk seems good enough to me
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why in the name of all that is holy is there a god damn novel on the page
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On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote:
Don't kill yourself dude. That's just bad sportsmanship really (even given your situation). It's also extremely unfair for the mafia in this game who are still trying to win.
If you want a better reason, if I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. We'd have to ask Qatol the lawyer to interpret this law which is probably a path you don't want to go down =D
confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule
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Eh sure we could try to convince lunar to shoot a vet or maybe even pick someone and med protect them, but there's no guarantee he would listen and I dont want to risk anyone
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On February 08 2011 01:20 GMarshal wrote:
Ok, I'm not putting my vote behind anyone to settle a stupid squable that is most likely two townies tunneling, instead what do you guys think of Kav's analysis of Impervious? That at least has much more to go on then 1 clue sort of matches and includes a behavioral analysis. Also Divinek care to explain your freak out at the LD situation which jackal has so kindly pointed out?
i thought jackal actually analyzed something instead of pointing shit out lol. But I just didn't trust the SK, you guys thought we could and that he would listen to us and this was likely but he had no reason to listen to us, he was going to die either way. I'm glad your trust in him prevailed, but when I see glaring certainties to me I sort of tunnel lol.
And you had clues pointing to scum that were fairly certain but I am always a fan of going for the sure thing, in hind sight obviously hitting two mafia and getting no townies killed was amazing, but any other scenario might have ended badly. But a one for one trade would have been okay too but then we'd still have had to waste a lynch regardless.
I was freaking out cause I was preparing for worst case scenario while others were expecting the best, their optimistic bias payed off and I'm glad for it. :D
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On February 08 2011 04:43 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 08 2011 04:24 Barundar wrote:
Jackal is obvious town at this point, not sure of cubed. I love the scumhunting jackal, but you really need to learn to convince town and not just yourself of peoples guilt =). Some behavioural analysis would be great, while you post DivineK's posts, you don't actually comment on them and point out why exactly these means he is mafia. Same with Cubed. Maybe ask Foolishness for advice on how to build a case? =)
IMO you should check blue tonight Kav. Lynching SK is the only "break" we get from hunting mafia, and if eti was a red, well then we will just realise we have won one day later. If we want blue info now is the time. Cubed is simply the clues. Movie scene with an explanation. Followed by why the explanation was given. I've already pointed those out. If we're playing a game with clues I have to believe the clues carry more weight than analysis. This is rapidly becoming paralysis by analysis. Divinek's posts I did comment. 1 comment covers them all. He went apeshit for no real reason.
i went ape shit because i standing up for what i believe in and people pay you more attention when you get maaaaaaaad! And i thought everyone else was being crazy
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If you believe impervious is mafia kav then why not have a vote on him? Here's my look at kenpachi
My case on kenpachi: WHAT CASE HE DOESN’T SAY ANYTHING. But actually lets look at some of his posts, as kav points out its silly to analyze every single post, but I will include the most recent of his posts here, or at least something like the later half. I do believe he started this game out with a few opinions and two liner posts that tried to share his perspective on things. But I’m looking at the most recent half of his posts or so, if someone wants to go farther back that’s fine or wants me to actually do the other half then I can, but just see what’s here first.
Questions, who thinks asking questions can be useful? Everyone should, but it’s what questions you ask and how you ask them that’s important, and if you’re only asking questions you’re not taking a stance or giving an opinion, you’re not really be pro town, lets try and see how many questions kenpachi has (im gonna leave out quotes unless the post is actually MUTLI LINED, which most of his are one liners). I feel the most effective use of questions is to ask one of someone and then give an explanation why the must answer these questions, or how these questions are really beneficial to town etc, unless it’s implicit to the question otherwise this has always seemed like a very scummy tactic ( I know I used it in my nooby days when I first started out)
Questions: He asks 3 separate questions of us!
+ Show Spoiler +
wait is this sarcasm
"suspicious looking meat" is that no beneather?
wait, WHAT?
Summary posts are also kind of helpful/useful, but again they don’t put forth a lot right. I mean you’re repeating what others have said so you cant slip up, or get caught at anything. Rather mafia like behaviour if engaged in too much our without other useful posts. These can also be point out the obvious posts that don’t tell us anything he thinks really, just the facts etc.
Summary posts: (again every line is an ENTIRE post, multi line posts are actually quoted)
+ Show Spoiler +also, Coag disappeared also as did kita the day before so yea.. dummy. read the day post Show nested quote +of those 3, we believe:
bum and beneather were scum
Sin/papa was the 3rd scum.
ah it sorta makes sense Show nested quote + We lost 5 people in total this night and yesterday.
Siniquity (modkill)
papapanda (modkill)
Coagulation (beneather)
bumatlarge (lynch)
Beneather (Hes bodyguard so maybe he was martyred? if this was possible or vig hit him) So beneather killed Coag from the day post. noclue here. Second medic protect this guy. yea probably man. hey look. no steel shit in the day post. Yes gg nemesis
Note all of those were entire posts, he did not add any really useful interpretations/analysis with his facts or summaries.
Random posts that aren’t useful (if you think they are please let me know why!)
+ Show Spoiler +
no im not Romanian
no im baffled that LD wasnt responsible for killing beneather
I cared. ;;
Wiggles no. just no nononono
nemeiss
None of the three previous sections were analyzed because what is there to analyze lol? no opinions or content, it was just to give you a look at the empty crap he's been feeding us to feign activity
Interesting posts to look at
ALSOOOOOOOO, FoS on Barundar for just wanting to kill me.
OMGUS kind of attitude, barundar has proved to be a pretty tactful dude, keeping his posts short and sweet but very useful. I suppose you could see this as him trying to throw some fire on barundar, but he doesn’t really do any work to try and push it or anything.
There are no reasons to kill me. die.
I think mega inactivity is a great reason to kill someone. Such a great defense of your position sir, you’ll need better than this to keep me off your tail!
oh btw i asked for med protection on bum because i thought he was actually the DT. I voted him because his scum slip was confirmed
This one I almost put under the summary/stating the obvious section lol. But it does have an opinion attached to it he just never explains why he thinks either of these things. No reason why he believes bum, and I guess he can plead the sheep card for following the confirmed scum slip, throw his vote on the wagon and no one complains
you lie~
Who what when where why?
THIS WAS AN EXCELLENT POST OF BARUNDARS THAT NEVER GOT FOLLOWED UP ON
On February 01 2011 08:32 Barundar wrote:wat
WAT INDEED. Kenpachi has been skating by on the radar for far too long now, this post I found from barunar was rather compelling, especially since nemesis came back town from the census I do believe.
My verdict? Kenpachi is a heavy lurker, is he mafia? I have no reason to believe otherwise
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Does anyone know if those other symbols would mean for a drug? Like an anchor or I love you? I know a horse is the sign for heroine
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Actually Kav I think the far stronger link is the fact that there's a horse in the day post and a picture of a very similar horse head thing in impervious' profile
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On February 09 2011 12:53 Kavdragon wrote:
Oh, and on the topic of Divinek, I'm willing to bet that his name comes from the song "The divine suicide of K" off the album Kezia. Kezia being the album that he uses for his profile pic. I've searched around on wikipedia, but haven't found much. That being said, I'm not the best at seeing the connections in clues (see: beneather's "stary night" clue), so someone else might want to look into this.
That is exactly where I get my name from! I find it funny when people read it as Div-in-ek instead of divine k, but i cant blame them it does read as a full word.
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On February 10 2011 08:32 Kavdragon wrote:Alright, well I have to go soon, so I'll be offline till about an hour before the lynch. IF YOU THINK IT'S TOO LATE TO SWITCH THE VOTE, IGNORE THE REST OF THIS. This is what I'm thinking. We can afford a mis-lynch or two. The best place to hid as mafia is among those who do not give opinions, or suspicions. Those people are the hardest to analyze, so let's get rid of them to make sure the mafia aren't hiding among them. Zerroth and Divinek are the two main ones that come to mind. While it would be nice to lynch scum today, it will be safer in the long run if we protect ourselves against this hazard. I was planning on posting this later, so it's not totally done, but here's what i have on DivineK so far: + Show Spoiler +Divinek hasn't posted very much, so I there isn't a lot to pull from. I searched for contradictions within his posting and came up with a few, detailed below. + Show Spoiler [Post analysis] ++ Show Spoiler [Bad Idea/first post] +On January 24 2011 07:48 Divinek wrote:
Trading damn near anything is worth it for a scum player in this game imo. Lol, you cearly don't realize how important the census is for verifying lynch. A veteran player like yourself should have realized just how useful that ability would be ina game with no flip. On January 28 2011 17:42 Divinek wrote:
if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember
I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm. On January 28 2011 15:50 Divinek wrote:
ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him.
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On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote:
I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip? That was a scum slip. On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote:
LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified On February 02 2011 13:15 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:13 GMarshal wrote:On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote:
LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified I dont think you get it we aren't offering LunarDestiny a choice between serving town or some better deal, if lunar deviates at all from the towns instructions (which I think we should determine by majority vote) he hangs, I dont see where the disadvantage to giving town a second KP is. what, he's going to hang eventually anyways if he listens to you, because he confirms himself as the SK if he does. (or the other SK listens just to implicate him), or he could not listen to you and kill other people making it look like he's not the SK there's so much wifom i dont see how you can think he'd want to listen to us if he was SK. If he's been found out like this he's going to die eventually, his best bet is obviously to deny all claims and play it off like he's NOT the sk. On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote:
I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. You're an experienced player. Your first game was actually the same game that Bumatlarge first played in. You said that a revealed SK would never bargain with town? It's happened in every single game I've played that had an SK. You knew better than that: LunarDestiny played with you in Insane Mafia, as a third party, and in a similar no-win position. What did he do? He went ape crazy and killed a bunch of mafia. You said that you are basing your position on past SKs but never mentioned Insane. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. He is the balancer. Whether SK is revealed or not is totally irrelevant to their win condition. It makes it much harder, but not impossible. SK has helped town several times before after being revealed, and hey look. It happened again. I will state it again. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. The mafia were in the lead at that point, so they would want the SK dead. After the lynch/SK/Modkill brought their numbers down to two, town was ahead, so we lynched the SK. It was after Mafia lost three people that Foolishness got on and posted this: On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote:
If I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. Soon after Divinek was kind enough to provide us with this post. [B]On February 05 2011 09:10 Divinek wrote:
confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule This whole argument is bad, and bad in a way that benefits the mafia. It doesn't make much sense from the perspective of a townie, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of Mafia However, contradictions or scummy SK plans aren't the only thing i found suspicious about Divinek. It's when and what his posts are about. + Show Spoiler [Behavioral Analysis] +First off, when I was browsing through Divinek's posts, I found an interesting similarity between Haunted Mafia and Mafia XXXVI: + Show Spoiler [Post comparison with known mafia/town…] +Divinek has been inactive. I don't think there's any arguing that point. In a thead of over 2000 posts, he has 38, roughly 1/50th of the posts. He posted very little at the beginning of the game, posted a bunch about the SK, and then got rather quite again, though, not as quite as before. I'd like to compare his posting from Haunted mafia ( Vampire), Team Meley Mini mafia ( townie) and this mafia ( Ma fi a?). ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/z6XN0.png) (Note, he was subbed in, so his first real post was 744.)Notice the similarities? He more or less dissapears after a "Hi" post in the beginning, then lurks, popping up and posts a couple of posts, then dissapears again for a long time in both Haunted and this Mafia. In the Team Meley, he was much more active, and didn't disappear after his first couple of posts. This is similar to mafia play I've seen before where they say hi, then disappear for a while, while they get in touch with their scum buddies.
no opinions or suspicions did you not read my case on kenpachi? Or do you trust him because he's in your circle?
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EPT
