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On January 10 2011 06:04 Ace wrote:
I can't vote remember?
So if you are claiming you were responsible for Orgo's lynch, and appeared on another innocent lynch wagon then why should I believe you? I just quoted a post of yours where you said you don't really think myself or LSB are scum but don't exactly trust us. You say Nemesis is fishy but you didn't vote for him. That's wishy washy.
If you believe you are the most outstanding figure in this game and we haven't caught any mafia then yea, I think it's safe to say I don't mind lynching you. If you can present a scenario where Subversion is telling the truth about being role blocked and Nemesis must be a fake DT then show it.
@Mango: If your vote is there and someone else comes in and quickvotes then it's an instant lynch.
That is false, it's not majority lynch ending day early or anything of the sort mango. Just like the previous nights, the votes will be tallied at day end and in the event of a tie, the person to receive the votes first gets lynched.
Ace, you're now saying I should be lynched for being part of two bad lynches. First of all, in no way does being part of bad lynches make me scum, and second, I tried my best to prevent the beneather inactivity lynch when he showed up with 5minutes to go and posted. obvious scum tell amirite?
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Being part of 2 bad lynches doesn't mean you are Scum. Taken into account with everything else though I don't see how you aren't Scum.
Also if you wanted to prevent the beneather lynch because he was inactive then why didn't orgolove get the same treatment?
Like I said before. If you can make a case for Subversion telling the truth about the roleblock and Nemesis lying about his DT claim I'm all ears.
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By the way if Nemesis is telling the truth then this exists:
2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town.
If he is telling the truth AND Subversion is also then this exists:
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
However no one has claimed medic and no one has counter-claimed DT. Subversion isn't here defending himself either. Why would you believe him over Nemesis? Don't you think it's something that no one else has been role blocked?
Otherwise you must be making the claim that Mafia figured out the setup a day ago and wanted to claim DT in advance or weren't afraid of a counter-claim. This also means they purposely wouldn't roleblock anyone again.
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On January 10 2011 06:49 Ace wrote:Being part of 2 bad lynches doesn't mean you are Scum. Taken into account with everything else though I don't see how you aren't Scum. Everything else:
-Took initiative to change the inactive town atmosphere
-Tried to stop the beneather lynch at the last minute because of new information
-applied pressure to various people (nemesis, ace, subversion, orgolove, beneather) who were not contributing or appeared questionable
-expressed my thoughts fearlessly and frequently
-attracted all manner of attention to myself
Also if you wanted to prevent the beneather lynch because he was inactive then why didn't orgolove get the same treatment? I wanted to stop the beneather lynch because when he did post, he convinced me that he was a townie. Orgolove on the other hand was inactive but not afk, and nothing he did gave me any reason to believe he was town. Additionally, the only other lynch option yesterday was subversion. Would that have been better?Like I said before. If you can make a case for Subversion telling the truth about the roleblock and Nemesis lying about his DT claim I'm all ears. I already presented the case for nemesis being a lying scum.Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 05:23 aidnai wrote:
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There are only two options here.
1) Nemesis is telling the truth.
-Nemesis/meapak are clear, subversion is scum.
-subversion fake claimed the roleblock, there is no roleblocker
-We are in setup 4: 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town
-Either aidnai/KJ or Gmarshal/foolishness/mango are the remaining scum team.
Problems:
-Assuming Nemesis is really a DT, why not pick orgolove night one? why not pick me night two?
-I don't believe Gmarshal et al are scum.
-Doesn't explain Subversion's complete lack of interest in the game.
or 2) Nemesis is lying
-Scum team is pushing an easy lynch to finish us off
-Subversion is an apathetic townie, he told the truth about his roleblock claim
-With no blues claiming and a mafia roleblocker, we are in setup 2
-The remaining scum team is between aidnai/meapak/mango-gmarshal
-most likely remaining scum is meapak (since nemesis tried to clear them, and other teams are likely greens)
Problems:
-why would scum do something so bold when they were doing just fine without a fakeclaim? It's almost certain one of subversion/aidnai would have been lynched today anyway.
For me right now, it comes down to Gmarshal being town. That right there proves to me that nemesis is lying. Of course, I need to convince Gmarshal/mango and subversion that I am town as well. Have you been able to talk to foolishness yet? I feel weird tooting my own horn, but if I have to, I will go back and analyze myself to show I can't be mafia.
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On January 10 2011 06:53 Ace wrote:
By the way if Nemesis is telling the truth then this exists:
2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town.
I already pointed this out -_-
If he is telling the truth AND Subversion is also then this exists:
If nemesis is telling the truth, Subversion is scum, extremely unlikely to have been roleblocked
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
However no one has claimed medic and no one has counter-claimed DT. Subversion isn't here defending himself either. Why would you believe him over Nemesis? I think it's much more likely that a green will completely fail to show up to defend himself than a red. Unfortunately, neither of my lynch targets showed up yesterday... Don't you think it's something that no one else has been role blocked?no, it's pretty much expected whether subversion was telling the truth or not. Mafia would never confirm subversion's innocence by blocking someone else, especially since he's an easy lynch target.
Otherwise you must be making the claim that Mafia figured out the setup a day ago and wanted to claim DT in advance or weren't afraid of a counter-claim. This also means they purposely wouldn't roleblock anyone again.Mafia didn't have to know the setup to figure out it's smarter to only block subversion or no one at all
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If Mafia don't know the setup they don't know if there is a medic or DT. Why would they take that chance and not roleblock anyone else?
Regardless Subversion nor Incognito are not here defending themselves. I'll believe Nemesis over an absent player.
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I'm not talking to you anymore Ace. I'm not getting in a spam war when I need my townies to be able to decide clearly and quickly.
Gmarshal -- this is for you when you get here.
A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP.
On January 10 2011 05:53 TheMango wrote:
##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser
voting now in case it comes down to a tie, but this is not a 100% confirmed vote for me, I may switch before the day is up.
On January 10 2011 05:54 TheMango wrote:
I'll see if I can get in touch with gmarshall
Please vote first, talk later for the reasons listed above. If I'm right, town is dead the moment meapak shows up. This is basically a race. I'll be around if you have questions.
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United States22154 Posts
##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser
Persuaded by the above arguments, there's still time for me to change it if I change my mind but for now this is it
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United States22154 Posts
##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser
forgot to bold
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Thank you. Remember, all this vote does is buy us time to decide properly. Now you have to make your real decision.
So here's the issues you need to think through.
Assuming that you (team 2) are not mafia, then you only have two options. Nemesis is DT: Subversion/aidnai for scum team. OR Nemesis is liar: Nemesis/meapak for scum team. There's no other possibilities, thanks to Nemesis' claim.
All you have to do is decide is which combo it is.
Subversion, just in case you do show up, 1) I hope you have a good reason for your activity level (but hopefully nothing horrible happened), and 2), I don't believe there's any rush for your vote, so take your time ask questions and decide well.
Nemesis/Chaoser: 2
GMarshal (0.5) (safety vote)
TheMango (0.5) (safety vote)
aidnai
Subversion: 1
Nemesis
Not yet voted: Subversion, Meapak_ziphh
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Hmm, I am not sure as to who Subversion's mafia partner is but if town don't vote together in this scenario, town will lose for sure. If mafia manages to convince even 1 person to vote with them, town loses.
Really think about this carefully. Aidnai, you seem to be pretty convinced that I am scum and Subversion is town, when a day ago you were all over him for his roleclaim. What made you change your opinion of him?
On January 10 2011 06:53 Ace wrote:
By the way if Nemesis is telling the truth then this exists:
2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town.
I already pointed this out -_-
If he is telling the truth AND Subversion is also then this exists:
If nemesis is telling the truth, Subversion is scum, extremely unlikely to have been roleblocked
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
However no one has claimed medic and no one has counter-claimed DT. Subversion isn't here defending himself either. Why would you believe him over Nemesis? I think it's much more likely that a green will completely fail to show up to defend himself than a red. Unfortunately, neither of my lynch targets showed up yesterday... Don't you think it's something that no one else has been role blocked?no, it's pretty much expected whether subversion was telling the truth or not. Mafia would never confirm subversion's innocence by blocking someone else, especially since he's an easy lynch target.
Otherwise you must be making the claim that Mafia figured out the setup a day ago and wanted to claim DT in advance or weren't afraid of a counter-claim. This also means they purposely wouldn't roleblock anyone again.Mafia didn't have to know the setup to figure out it's smarter to only block subversion or no one at all
You seem to be WIFOMing all over the place here trying to make the situation fit with your opinion. Really, green is more likely to fail to defend himself? Where the hell did you get that info from?
And tell me, gMarshall/theMango, what makes me fake claiming DT more likely than subversion fakeclaiming to have been roleblocked?
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headed out and about for the evening. Nemesis, the problem with your claim is that it means either GMango or me are scum, and I don't believe that. I went back over the posting history, and meapak/nemesis scum team makes a lot more sense.
If Gmango comes to any conclusions (sorry just getting tired of typing both names), please post in the thread at the very least for the sake of subversion who may/may not show up to vote at some point. You guys have an advantage in having a few perspectives you can trust (3 man team I mean), so I trust you to get this one right.
Be back later tonight.
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A meapak/nemesis Scum team makes a lot more sense? Explain. Show the series of posts that helped you arrive at that conclusion.
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On January 10 2011 09:59 aidnai wrote:
headed out and about for the evening. Nemesis, the problem with your claim is that it means either GMango or me are scum, and I don't believe that. I went back over the posting history, and meapak/nemesis scum team makes a lot more sense.
If Gmango comes to any conclusions (sorry just getting tired of typing both names), please post in the thread at the very least for the sake of subversion who may/may not show up to vote at some point. You guys have an advantage in having a few perspectives you can trust (3 man team I mean), so I trust you to get this one right.
Be back later tonight.
Can you at least post what makes you think that meapak/Nemesis scum team makes more sense?
Also, if you really are town, I suggest you ask kingjames01 to asess the situation himself.
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Problems:
-Assuming Nemesis is really a DT, why not pick orgolove night one? why not pick me night two?
-I don't believe Gmarshal et al are scum.
-Doesn't explain Subversion's complete lack of interest in the game.
We checked Ace first night because 1) he was semi inactive and 2) Ace is the best player in this game, to not check him would stupid. If he's alive then I don't have to suspect him when he makes it past two days. If he's dead, we'll have wasted a check but I would rather not have to worry about the alignment of Ace.
Why would we pick you over Subversion? He claimed he got role blocked. That's suspicious enough for a check. That added in with the fact that he basically came in, said he got blocked and then never even joined in the conversation about the block and discussing the incident at all reeked of scum to me so we decided to check him.
I'm pretty sure Mango ain't scum either so obviously you would be trying very very hard to say we're fake claiming cause you red =]
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United States22154 Posts
an in depth discussion of what the mafia may have been thinking
Lets take it from day 1 shall we
Day 1: Mafia discovers which setup they are up against, sort of, they either have a role blocker or they don’t. Lets see where both paths lead
Day 1 with a role blocker, basically here the mafia has one goal, to try to establish whether they are up against 2 blues or no blues, if they are up against two blues then they have to try to get them to claim asap to take them out
Day 1 without a roleblocker. The mafia knows they are up either against a medic or a DT, the challenge is to establish which and take it out as soon as possible, if they play their hand right they may be able to fake claim the other role.
Night 1 with or without- the mafia chooses to take out LSB the most vocal person in the town, this is the obvious choice for the medic to protect and as LSB dies the mafia can essentially conclude that there is no medic or that the medic is rather stupid
Night 1 with a role blocker- Here is where things get interesting, if the mafia has a role blocker then they chose to role block Subversion, this would make sense if there is a possibility they might be up against two blues, also they don’t know whether their hit on LSB has been successful yet, hence their only real choice was to use it. Why Subversion? If the mafia is moderately intelligent they noticed that he was essentially just lurking and hence could possibly be a blue trying to avoid the mafia’s attention on the first day.
Night 1 without a role blocker – this one assumes that Subversion is Mafia, and is claiming to be role blocked to make the town think that they are in setup 1 or 2. However this to me seems like a less than wise choice, unless the mafia is prepared to have the other member claim to be role blocked the following day, honestly if the mafia did this it had to be to setup a fake role claim, if this is so where is it and why hasn’t it manifested? Also why did the second member not claim his role block today allowing one the members to claim a probable setup 2 and thus a “fake claim” from Nemesis? For this reason this seems unlikely. It just feels way too ballsy for mafia no real tangible benefit.
Day 2 with a role blocker - The mafia is pretty content with the fact that Subversion is gathering suspicion for telling the town he was role blocked, since none of their members are under suspicion (the only threatened people are subversion and the aidnai teams, as well as Orgolove all of which they know to be innocent. (Since the mafia would have to be Nemesis and meapak or Aidnai, and nemesis’ attack on Aidnai clears him in my mind if we assume this setup, hence leaving meapak as the only viable other scum)
Day 2 without a role blocker, this incriminates aidnai as he seems to push for Orgolove/Flamewheel and barely manages to escape the push forming against him, in this case subversion and aidnai basically have to be mafia, and they are just happy that they avoided death, it still doesn’t account for why aidnai didn’t either claim to have been role blocked the following morning, thus clearing subversion and setting up Nemesis for a rather harsh fall or claim the missing role, medic. This leads me to suspect that the mafia does in fact have a role blocker, and that they’ve been very wise about how to use him.
Night 2 with a role blocker – the mafia hits and either role blocks Subversion again (as claiming hey I was role blocked for the second time would make him doubly suspicious) or chooses to save the block, knowing that if they can get Sub to hang then the game is in the bag for them.
Day 3 – here nemesis role claims, leading to our current predicament, one of two situations, either Nemesis and meapak are scum or Nemesis is clear and subversion and aidnai are scum.
As I see it would make no sense for a member of the mafia to claim to have been role blocked and then have no follow up on the following day, and no fake roleclaim, for this reason I believe the mafia has a role blocker and that Nemesis is most certainly mafia, with meapak almost certainly being the other.
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Sometimes it's just better to think of a simple answer. You have no idea what the Mafia know and don't know their motives. Hence it's just a simple decision on who is more believable here.
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Have you forgotten about the fact that after Subversion claimed he got roleblocked, he pretty much disappeared from the game? What kind of townie would do that? Why would it make no sense for a mafia to claim to be role blocked and then have no follow up? Mafia want to cause chaos, no matter how it comes about. Look at Mafia XXIV (I think), where mafia claimed to have been hit and then hit and left the rest of the analysis of what happened to the town. When a townie gets hit or saved or whatever, most of the time they themselves want to get to the bottom of the situation because it involved THEM. To just say something and leave is very scummy. Not to mention look at his posts:
i dont really see what the point is of DTs checking inactives if its publicly announced. Surely then mafia will just make sure they're not inactive to avoid being detected?
It's a good thing for mafia to be active, active mafia=mafia that's easy spot since they can't hide.
His next few posts are just of him repeating that he's voting for BC/Beneather cause they aren't active
On January 05 2011 09:00 Subversion wrote:
omg, somehow completely fucked something up in the above post, sorry for the random screwed up quotes =/
also need to bold my vote
##Vote Beneather/BC
Oh okay, soz, that actually makes a lot of sense.
Ugh this Day 1 vote is really just.. meh. Really not much to go on. For now I'm going with:
##Vote Beneather/BC
My main reasoning here is that Beneather seems reluctant to say anything without BC being here to give him advice. Seems like a scummy junior would be scared of exposing himself without a senior to run his posts by. Also, BC yet to make an appearance.
and finally his last two posts are of him claiming to be roleblocked and then responding to an FoS on him.
There's been no contribution or actively of his that in anyway has helped the town. Lynch his ass.
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Wow, many grammar errors, my bad.
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GMarshall, you seem to be WIFOMing all over the place.
If you want to go to WIFOM land, then let me just pose this to you:
You said it yourself that if there was a roleblocker, mafia is content Subversion and Aidnai was gathering suspicion during day 2, and that I was pretty much not in the spotlight.
Third day, I could have easily pushed for either of them without fake-claiming. By fake-claiming, I have pretty much put myself in the spotlight where I was pretty safe before. Why go for a risky fake-claim to push for their lynch when I can just as easily push for their lynch without fake-claiming?
Do you see the hole in your thought process now?
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Back. I'm trying to re-read everything from gmarshal/mango with an open mind to see if I could be wrong about them. I was wrong about orgo and I don't want to tunnel.
If I throw out my assumption that team 2 is town, then I'm open to the possibility of a subversion/gmango scum team.
Chaoser, I know subversion has looked pretty damn scummy. But scum try their best NOT to look scummy, and that's what's missing from the picture with Subversion. In any case, I made my earlier posts on the basis of reading gmango as green, not based on my read of subversion. Assuming you're really the DT, and you get your way today with lynching subversion: Who's next, me or gmango? It's not too early to talk about and it will help me think things through today.
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EPT
