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United States1967 Posts
Ok, so I was in the middle of typing up a long analysis on Nemesis's voting/posting pattern, but I'm going to do a setup analysis first:
Set Up:
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective (Not likely, that means, 2 of the 5 teams are blue, and we haven't had a save yet, nor do we have people claiming themselves at this critical day period)
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 7 Town (The most likely scenario if Subversion roleblock claim is correct, and Nemsis is fake claiming DT)
2 Mafia Goon, 1 Medic, 6 Town. (Not likely at all, since then both Subversion AND Nemesis are lying, which makes zero sense)
2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town. (The most likely scenario if Subversion is lying and Nemesis is actually DT)
Here is my 'read' on Subversion. He just doesn't care and is super inactive. The role block claim was legit. I think a fake roleblock claim by an inactive mafia makes so sense, and him being inactive actually reinforces my opinion that he is in fact green. Everything points to someone that just doesn't care enough to be active (btw mods, I think he should at least get a warning for this game at least, because his inactivity is borderline modkill level.)
I'll post a more detailed post on Nemesis after I eat dinner, but looking at both team pairs as a whole, I have to go with the nemesis/chaose & meapak/ace over kj/aidnai & subversion/incog. Basically it comes down to the latter team feeling way more green than the first team pair.
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United States1967 Posts
On January 11 2011 08:31 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 07:44 TheMango wrote:
Just got done with work, so I've been reading the recent posts. I'm really surprised the aidnai is suddenly switching to subversion, when he was dead set on nemesis...
basically it comes down to this for me: Nemesis/Chaos & Meapak/Ace are mafia team, or it's aidnai/KJ & Subversion/Incognito are mafia team.
Although I was suspicious of aidnai, the last couple posts had me leaning towards him being town, and Nemesis DT claim is more suspicious to me than Subversion roleblocked claim. I think Subversion is more likely just a really inactive townie, while Nemesis claim of DT seems like a desperate measure to win the game. I'm currently writing up an analysis of why I think Nenemsis/Chaos & Meapak/Ace are mafia, might take me 15 mins or so. Hmm...it's been over half an hour, nice analysis.
I got interrupted couple times IRL, don't you worry, analysis on you is incoming.
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United States1967 Posts
On January 11 2011 08:36 aidnai wrote:
remember Mango, once you switch your vote it's final, because of the tie situation. So don't do it until you're absolutely certain. Just saying.
yea, I dont want to get vote sniped either, but I'm pretty certain that Nemesis/Chaoser & meapak/Ace are mafia team, pending some explanations from Subversion/Incog (they better show up)
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United States1967 Posts
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How does being inactive = green?
Being inactive does not imply the role of anyone.
And I guess I'll be waiting for your real analysis then.
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RoL can you confirm the time left? I believe we have just over 4 hours today?
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United States1967 Posts
Nemesis vote history (counting the ones he retracted)
Vote: TheMango/Gmarshal/Foolishness (Day 1 vote) - retracted
##Vote: Team 9 Flamewheel/Orgolove (Day 1 vote) - townie
##Vote Team 6 Kingjames01/Aidnai (Day 2 vote) - townie
##Vote Team 7 Subversion/Incognito (Day 3 vote) - based on DT claim checks
small game/small sample size, could have easily just made wrong votes as a townie, I think some of us may have similar records, so not really too suspicious by itself...
Day 1 Votes - Votes on the 'inactives', which to be fair, both me and Gmarshall were inactive for most of Day 1, then he switches to another town team.
Day 2 Votes - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=175638¤tpage=16#316
says Subversion is NOT scummy, then votes KJ/aidnai, and then 'CHECKS' subversion???
Day 3 - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=175638¤tpage=16#316 and read the post right below. Looks like mafia team work to me imo.
I've had my suspicions about Meapak/Ace as well, due to Meapak's suspicious inactivity around the time he got killed in the Mafia game (he was active on the IRC channel even after his death, but was inactive in this game for at least a day or so). But other than that, my case on them is pretty weak. My main suspicion is on Nemesis, and by association, I'm saying Meapak/Ace has to be mafia for obvious reasons.
It looks like the swing vote rests with KJ/aidnai. I do not want to make a mistake and lose the game at this point, so I hope Subversion/Incog shows up ASAP and says something. Also, it would help if KJ spoke up, being the senior on that team.
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United States1967 Posts
I'm going to be playing sc2 for about 2 hours so brb, but I'll definitely be here for the last 2 hours or so.
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United States1967 Posts
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Aidnai you need to switch your vote. Mango is dragging his feet and I'm almost certain now that the scum team is gm/mango and subversion. Notice how he's active right when things appear to be about to swing out of his favor but he hasn't really added anything except for an "analysis" of voting patterns which falls under "contributing without contributing" he's promising a big analysis but look at his posts, he's probably going to delay it right until the end. You need to switch now Aidnai, don't let mango run railroad this one through.
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oh and lol mango, by "active in the irc channel" you mean that I asked if I could lurk even though I was dead and then proceded to leave my computer. Basing you suspicions off of inactivity is laughable at best and scummy at worst. I'm one of the only people who did a decent analysis so far and you don't even consider that. That also reminds me, read my analysis and subversions sibsequent "response" subversion barely explains his actions. Aidnai I hope you read this in time because you're the only hope the town's got since mango is acting so scummy.
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United States1967 Posts
becoming desperate? so now I'm obviously mafia since I called you guys out? The truth is, my analysis doesnt prove 100% on way or the other, or we wouldnt be in this situation. But im now convinced based on your reaction.
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United States1967 Posts
I have irc logs that prove you were chatting in that channel while people were wondering where you were in our game. I dont think I can even post them here, but I'm not the only one that called you out on it.
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lawl at your "analysis" if you can even call it that. You can't even draw connections between nemesis/me and Ace/meatpak's team at all can you? While I can 100% draw connections between you and subversion. You're all over his ass right now trying hard as fuck to shove this idea that he's townie while I/nemesis haven't done a single thing past claiming we checked ace and found he was townie. We didn't try to do any analysis, any bullshit logic, nothing of that sort. Aidnai, vote Gmango and lets win this game
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lol no I'm just pissed the town is going to lose because no one analyzed anything. This game has been pretty pathetic in terms of actual analysis. You don't have any "analysis" so of course it doesn't prove 100 percent either way. We have a DT telling us "Subversion is red" We have an analysis done that points to subversion being red and we have no counter claim of DT, if you are a DT you should claim now because guess what, if we mislynch we lose. I don't see how I can be any clearer here people, Aidnai this lynch is in your hands.
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On January 11 2011 11:24 TheMango wrote:
I have irc logs that prove you were chatting in that channel while people were wondering where you were in our game. I dont think I can even post them here, but I'm not the only one that called you out on it.
Oh and lol at this... just lol. I bolded my favorite part.
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United States1967 Posts
? whats so lol about it. I wish gmarshal was here so he could back me up, or tell me I'm being stupid. But you're acting very scummy right now. I like how you ask the DT to come out, as someone wouldnt have come out already if they were DT, LOL
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It's basically a personality contest between you and me mango because you're calling me scummy without any evidence so it'll just depend on who Aidnai decides to vote for.
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=[ how come I'm not in that contest?? sadface
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United States1967 Posts
people better start coming on and posting because this would be really sad if we lost cause of lack of information due to inactives. Need gmarshal, subversion to post asap, and seniors KJ and foolishness would be of great help right now.
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EPT
