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On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (=
I can help you cohost, plenty of exp here 
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On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (=
Both those setups are extremely scum favored. I think you would want to go 11-2 and then it would still be scum favored.
EDIT:Mountainous
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On September 29 2015 15:33 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (= Both those setups are extremely scum favored. I think you would want to go 11-2 and then it would still be scum favored. EDIT: Mountainous
Simply untrue. With 10 vs. 3 scum needs 4 mislynches already which is 1 more than in most 13 player minis -> 4 mislynches for scum vs 3 correct lynches for town. That's as fair as it gets.
11 vs. 2 is ridiculously imbalanced. Town needs only 2 correct lynches and mafia 5 (!) mislynches. That's absolutely retarded.
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On September 29 2015 17:08 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2015 15:33 DarthPunk wrote:On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (= Both those setups are extremely scum favored. I think you would want to go 11-2 and then it would still be scum favored. EDIT: Mountainous Simply untrue. With 10 vs. 3 scum needs 4 mislynches already which is 1 more than in most 13 player minis -> 4 mislynches for scum vs 3 correct lynches for town. That's as fair as it gets. 11 vs. 2 is ridiculously imbalanced. Town needs only 2 correct lynches and mafia 5 (!) mislynches. That's absolutely retarded.
You are undervaluing the lack of power roles for town and the fact that scum has knowledge of that fact.
Scum do not need to play around medics. They do not need to fear investigative roles. The strongest town players will get killed on night 1. 5 mislynches seems about right to me.
Parity of the amount of lynches each side needs is not the way to calculate fairness because it does not recognize the disparity in difficulty that each side faces. It is far easier for the town to mislynch than it is for them to lynch correctly, especially when they have zero way to confirm alignments other than correctly lynching. This is evident from the day one mafia lynch rate which is only 2.9% better than flipping a coin to decide the lynch. Claims and Roles play a HUGE role in balancing the game in favor of the town and a 10-3 setup does not do enough to recognize and correct for that.
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On September 29 2015 20:30 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2015 17:08 justanothertownie wrote:On September 29 2015 15:33 DarthPunk wrote:On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (= Both those setups are extremely scum favored. I think you would want to go 11-2 and then it would still be scum favored. EDIT: Mountainous Simply untrue. With 10 vs. 3 scum needs 4 mislynches already which is 1 more than in most 13 player minis -> 4 mislynches for scum vs 3 correct lynches for town. That's as fair as it gets. 11 vs. 2 is ridiculously imbalanced. Town needs only 2 correct lynches and mafia 5 (!) mislynches. That's absolutely retarded. You are undervaluing the lack of power roles for town and the fact that scum has knowledge of that fact. Scum do not need to play around medics. They do not need to fear investigative roles. The strongest town players will get killed on night 1. 5 mislynches seems about right to me. Parity of the amount of lynches each side needs is not the way to calculate fairness because it does not recognize the disparity in difficulty that each side faces. It is far easier for the town to mislynch than it is for them to lynch correctly, especially when they have zero way to confirm alignments other than correctly lynching. This is evident from the day one mafia lynch rate which is only 2.9% better than flipping a coin to decide the lynch. Claims and Roles play a HUGE role in balancing the game in favor of the town and a 10-3 setup does not do enough to recognize and correct for that.
I see what you mean. I would love to try a 11-2 setup
I think the 2 mafias need to be super good to have a chance though
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On September 29 2015 07:05 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (= I can help you cohost, plenty of exp here
Thanks!! (=
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On September 29 2015 20:30 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2015 17:08 justanothertownie wrote:On September 29 2015 15:33 DarthPunk wrote:On September 29 2015 04:58 Rels wrote:
I would like to add a new game to the mini mafia queue:
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The Vanilla Experience
It will be an all-vanilla mini mafia. Thinking of 10 townies / 3 scums at the moment, but it can be 7/2 if there isn't enough people interested.
Looking for cohosts! I would be a lot more confident if I had at least one experienced cohost. (= Both those setups are extremely scum favored. I think you would want to go 11-2 and then it would still be scum favored. EDIT: Mountainous Simply untrue. With 10 vs. 3 scum needs 4 mislynches already which is 1 more than in most 13 player minis -> 4 mislynches for scum vs 3 correct lynches for town. That's as fair as it gets. 11 vs. 2 is ridiculously imbalanced. Town needs only 2 correct lynches and mafia 5 (!) mislynches. That's absolutely retarded. You are undervaluing the lack of power roles for town and the fact that scum has knowledge of that fact. Scum do not need to play around medics. They do not need to fear investigative roles. The strongest town players will get killed on night 1. 5 mislynches seems about right to me. Parity of the amount of lynches each side needs is not the way to calculate fairness because it does not recognize the disparity in difficulty that each side faces. It is far easier for the town to mislynch than it is for them to lynch correctly, especially when they have zero way to confirm alignments other than correctly lynching. This is evident from the day one mafia lynch rate which is only 2.9% better than flipping a coin to decide the lynch. Claims and Roles play a HUGE role in balancing the game in favor of the town and a 10-3 setup does not do enough to recognize and correct for that.
You can't take day1 as an example for the whole game since it gets progressively easier to find mafia the longer the game goes and there is more and more information available. You are overvaluing the importance of power roles.
11 vs 2 is insanely town favored and only winnable for mafia if they play extremely well and town is a bunch of retards.
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surprisingly, vanilla games are very, very swingy.
The reason is that town has no way to deal with shitty townies. In theory, 10v3 is more than fine. The problem is that there's a very good chance at least 2 of those 10 are just afk and not playing and thus deadweight etc.
So, you're both right. If we assume everyone in town plays good and genuinely tries to solve the game, 10v3 is fine. If town has maybe.... 3-4 useless players/trolls/inactives, 11v2 becomes balanced. The problem is you have no idea how many useless players town will have when you design the setup 
The best you can do is to try to apply a generic "how good are tl mafia towns" to it, and go from there.
It's interesting how standard roles like "cop" actually reduce the swing of games because they introduce information in a predictable manner to the game and they can be targeted at a difficult part of the gam.
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On September 30 2015 01:37 Palmar wrote:surprisingly, vanilla games are very, very swingy. The reason is that town has no way to deal with shitty townies. In theory, 10v3 is more than fine. The problem is that there's a very good chance at least 2 of those 10 are just afk and not playing and thus deadweight etc. So, you're both right. If we assume everyone in town plays good and genuinely tries to solve the game, 10v3 is fine. If town has maybe.... 3-4 useless players/trolls/inactives, 11v2 becomes balanced. The problem is you have no idea how many useless players town will have when you design the setup The best you can do is to try to apply a generic "how good are tl mafia towns" to it, and go from there. It's interesting how standard roles like "cop" actually reduce the swing of games because they introduce information in a predictable manner to the game and they can be targeted at a difficult part of the gam.
Well, you just said what I said more politely. 11 vs 2 is winnable for mafia if town consists of retards. You can't balance games around townies being dumb. Mafia can also be stupid and/or deadweight for their team. That's not what balance is for.
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On September 30 2015 01:50 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2015 01:37 Palmar wrote:surprisingly, vanilla games are very, very swingy. The reason is that town has no way to deal with shitty townies. In theory, 10v3 is more than fine. The problem is that there's a very good chance at least 2 of those 10 are just afk and not playing and thus deadweight etc. So, you're both right. If we assume everyone in town plays good and genuinely tries to solve the game, 10v3 is fine. If town has maybe.... 3-4 useless players/trolls/inactives, 11v2 becomes balanced. The problem is you have no idea how many useless players town will have when you design the setup The best you can do is to try to apply a generic "how good are tl mafia towns" to it, and go from there. It's interesting how standard roles like "cop" actually reduce the swing of games because they introduce information in a predictable manner to the game and they can be targeted at a difficult part of the gam. Well, you just said what I said more politely. 11 vs 2 is winnable for mafia if town consists of retards. You can't balance games around townies being dumb. Mafia can also be stupid and/or deadweight for their team. That's not what balance is for.
I think almost every tl mafia mini game has like... 2 deadweight townies.
I don't think 10v3 vanilla on TL is balanced.
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On September 30 2015 02:10 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2015 01:50 justanothertownie wrote:On September 30 2015 01:37 Palmar wrote:surprisingly, vanilla games are very, very swingy. The reason is that town has no way to deal with shitty townies. In theory, 10v3 is more than fine. The problem is that there's a very good chance at least 2 of those 10 are just afk and not playing and thus deadweight etc. So, you're both right. If we assume everyone in town plays good and genuinely tries to solve the game, 10v3 is fine. If town has maybe.... 3-4 useless players/trolls/inactives, 11v2 becomes balanced. The problem is you have no idea how many useless players town will have when you design the setup The best you can do is to try to apply a generic "how good are tl mafia towns" to it, and go from there. It's interesting how standard roles like "cop" actually reduce the swing of games because they introduce information in a predictable manner to the game and they can be targeted at a difficult part of the gam. Well, you just said what I said more politely. 11 vs 2 is winnable for mafia if town consists of retards. You can't balance games around townies being dumb. Mafia can also be stupid and/or deadweight for their team. That's not what balance is for. I think almost every tl mafia mini game has like... 2 deadweight townies. I don't think 10v3 vanilla on TL is balanced.
It sure as hell is more balanced than 11v2.
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On September 30 2015 02:15 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2015 02:10 Palmar wrote:On September 30 2015 01:50 justanothertownie wrote:On September 30 2015 01:37 Palmar wrote:surprisingly, vanilla games are very, very swingy. The reason is that town has no way to deal with shitty townies. In theory, 10v3 is more than fine. The problem is that there's a very good chance at least 2 of those 10 are just afk and not playing and thus deadweight etc. So, you're both right. If we assume everyone in town plays good and genuinely tries to solve the game, 10v3 is fine. If town has maybe.... 3-4 useless players/trolls/inactives, 11v2 becomes balanced. The problem is you have no idea how many useless players town will have when you design the setup The best you can do is to try to apply a generic "how good are tl mafia towns" to it, and go from there. It's interesting how standard roles like "cop" actually reduce the swing of games because they introduce information in a predictable manner to the game and they can be targeted at a difficult part of the gam. Well, you just said what I said more politely. 11 vs 2 is winnable for mafia if town consists of retards. You can't balance games around townies being dumb. Mafia can also be stupid and/or deadweight for their team. That's not what balance is for. I think almost every tl mafia mini game has like... 2 deadweight townies. I don't think 10v3 vanilla on TL is balanced. It sure as hell is more balanced than 11v2.
It's kind of a shame that games take so long. Would be cool to run 10 games of each and see what happened.
Maybe the best idea is some middle ground like 12v3 or maybe 9v2
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I was bored at work today so I wrote a simulation that emulates different setups a million times each by using a lynch selection formula that attempts to mirror the lynch percentages for normal game minis in the database that scales based on current cycle, which improves as the game goes on. This completely eliminates night kills, aside from the mafia kp, which will always hit town successfully in the simulation. Here is what it came out to for anyone that is curious:
10v3
Town 55.8%, Mafia 44.2%
9v3
Town 40.6%, Mafia 59.4%
11v2
Town 83.6%, Mafia 16.4%
The biggest flaw here is that the lynch percentages are based on games where the lynch could be influenced by night actions. It also doesn't take into account the value of being able to shoot the strongest player each night. It's tough to say how far the numbers should be adjusted in mafia's favor, but I decided to leave day one close to unaffected. Looking at the very limited sample size of all vanilla games that have been played and taking into account an all vanilla setup, I made the lynch percentage more harsh for town in comparison to the previous test on day two and onward . Here is what the new "all vanilla" simulations came to.
10v3
Town 43.5%, Mafia 56.5%
9v3
Town 30.1%, Mafia 69.9%
11v2
Town 75.1%, Mafia 24.8%
12v3
Town 55.8%, Mafia 44.2%
9v2
Town 64.5%, Mafia 34.5%
I'm sure these are still very flawed since there are so many factors to take into account. However, for 11v2 to work out close to 50/50, you would need to push the lynch percentages on day two and onward below the base 28% day one value, which doesn't make much sense.
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Thanks for the data! Seems like 10v3 is still the best setup. Maybe I'll use a minimum activity requirement to mitigate the problem Palmar posted: that most mini mafias had two dead weight as town. Of course, an activity requirement won't solve the "stupid town problem", but it will be an insurance for town that very few posts people will be modkilled.
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Insane Kita...nicely done. I assume you are a statistician/actuary/quant guru for a living...you seem to churn this stuff with almost no effort and to have the patience to do the database...
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Seeing as the queue is a bit bare, could you put me down for [M][T] Gravedigger mafia, planned for 3-4 weeks from now.
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On September 30 2015 05:26 Rels wrote:
Thanks for the data! Seems like 10v3 is still the best setup. Maybe I'll use a minimum activity requirement to mitigate the problem Palmar posted: that most mini mafias had two dead weight as town. Of course, an activity requirement won't solve the "stupid town problem", but it will be an insurance for town that very few posts people will be modkilled.
Surprise surprise. Seriously, anyone who thinks 11v2 is even close to fair should never have anything to do with balancing games.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Given that "10v3 with a couple blue roles" is balanced, one should be hesitant to call "10v3 with no blues roles" balanced.
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On September 30 2015 09:20 Blazinghand wrote:
Given that "10v3 with a couple blue roles" is balanced, one should be hesitant to call "10v3 with no blues roles" balanced.
Flawed logic. Blue roles can hurt town as much as they help. Examples are vigis losing mislynches or cops getting false checks. Also mafia fakeclaims can be a very powerful tool that is lost in vanilla games.
I don't know how a balance team member can make a generalized stupid statement like this. smh
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EPT
