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Haunted Mafia - Page 118

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
October 21 2010 06:24 GMT
#2341
Alright, thanks. I hope some encouraging clue analysis goes down tomorrow. I have got nothing except the baseball bat thing. It might seem too obvious, but maybe that's just over thinking it. Maybe Dr. H. is throw a bone out to the members of a dwindling town population.
Hyperbola
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States2554 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-10-21 06:38:22
October 21 2010 06:31 GMT
#2342
One thing we have to consider is the voting of players.

For example day 1:
Veldril - 16 -Lucktar, YummyBlaBla, kenpachi, annul, youngminii(V), southrawrea, Masq(V), grandmoose, HeavOnEarth, oddo123, thegilaboy(V), kingjames01(V), Lexpar(M), MetalFace, Bill Murray, NB(M)

Here the vote was between Veldril and Masq(V). Naturally the vampires would want to defend Masq and therefore a total of 4 (known) vampires voted for Veldril. The mafia were not entirely aware of who the vampires were at this point so they could have simply voted randomly. I think that many of the players here have a high chance of turning up vampires so clues against them should be taken with twice the weight of others.

Day 2 provides us with little analysis because other than a select few players, everyone predominantly voted for Veldril. Day 3, however is another story:

Artanis[Xp](M) - 15 - SiNiquity, southrawrea, deconduo, Hyperbola, thegilaboy(V), Hittegods, annul, Neos, glurio, Flicky, kitaman27, XeliN, Divinek, aztrorisk, Iankill - (L-9)

glurio - 17 - orgolove, oddo123, Lucktar, jaminz, Artanis[Xp](M), Glasse, spydr, Aeres, HeavOnEarth, KhrisKruel, quickstriker, chesshaha, MetalFace, KtheZ, zerroth, AirbladeOrange, grandmoose - (L-7)

HeavOnEarth - 8 - Node, CubEdIn, YummyBlaBla, Yogy, kenpachi, jcarlsoniv, Lexpar(M), Nemesis - (L-16)

jcarlsoniv - 1 - kingjames01(V) - (L-23)
thegilaboy(V) - 1 - ghrur - (L-23)

edit: shit... messed up down here. I'll repost this part later
####
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 21 2010 06:43 GMT
#2343
alright

i am going to start this here

i also have a pocket mad scientist. he is not confirmed (as in, my DT did not check him) but i am inclined to believe him for now. i sent him a message asking if he would rather check hittegod's clue tonight and kill kenpachi now or if he would rather check kenpachi's clue tonight and kill hittegods now

he hasnt responded, but i am now voting kenpachi under the assumption he is going to agree with my logic. if he disagrees, then i will unvote onto hittegods, i guess. but i really dont know why he would ask for a blue check _yesterday_ if he was a red =\
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 21 2010 06:45 GMT
#2344
ps hyperbola, editing posts EVER is like a modkill =\
Hyperbola
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States2554 Posts
October 21 2010 06:50 GMT
#2345
@annul: hope I don't get mod killed, but there was a failure of continuity in the logic that was nothing but detrimental.

Alright, well the main idea of the second part is that the mafia were trying to dwindle the support for Artanis by voting under HeavOnEarth and Glurio. Specific players that randomly voted against Artanis should be put under suspicion.
####
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
October 21 2010 06:55 GMT
#2346
Editing is not allowed. The next person to edit their post will get modkilled.
RIP Aaliyah
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 21 2010 07:33 GMT
#2347
actually, never mind me, i am an idiot

unvoting kenpachi and taking down hittegods today. the town circle suspects him of being the vampire lord.
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 07:51 GMT
#2348
Just did some analysis on every flipped scum:

VAMPS:

bumatlarge - Voted for Veldril, then switched to maq. Died night 1

Attacked: No one Defended: No one

masq - Voted for Veldril, died day 1

Attacked: No one Defended: Veldril

youngminii: Voted for jodogohoo, then switched to veldril. Died night 1

Attacked: Aztro Defended: No one CONCLUSION: Aztro is likely not vamp

kingjames01 - voted veldril day 1, veldril day 2, jcarlsoniv day 3. Died night 3

Attacked: Bill Murray Defended: no one CONCLUSION: jcarlsoniv is likely not vamp

thegilaboy - voted veldril day 1, veldril day 2, artanis day 3. Died night 3

Attacked: No one Defended: no one




MAFIA:

NB - voted Seraph then switched to Veldril day 1. Died night 1

Attacked: jodogohoo and was suspicious of a bunch of already dead people
Defended: Maybe heavonearth...it was kind of indirect

BrownBear - subbed in day 2, voted for veldril day 2. Died night 2

Attacked: All lurkers and pandain Defended: no one

CONCLUSION: this is something that's been getting to me, but no mafia has been modkilled. Therefore I don't think the lurkers are more likely to be scum, and his attack of lurkers helps fortify this...at least they're not mafia anyways

Lexpar - Voted Veldril day 1, veldril day 2, veldril day 3. Died night 3

Attacked: Bill murray Defended: no one

Conclusion: He did not give a reason for his vote on heavonearth. It's likely he was just going with the clue. This makes heavonearth very unlikely to be mafia

Artanis - day 2 voted veldril, day 3 voted glurio. Died night 3

Atacked: Cubedln, Nemesis came to Cube's defense as well and Artanis had an exchange of words with him.
Defended: no one

Conclusion: Cube and Nemesis are very likely not mafia




SO, conclusions from this analysis:

kingjames and thegilaboy were both trying to get people off clue analysis. Kingjames even came out to say that we should arbitrarily go after anyone investigating clues. I think the choices we've been saying, especially with day 2 clues, are likely vamps. We should stick to our guns.

EVERY SINGLE FLIPPED VAMPIRE VOTED FOR VELDRIL ON DAY 1...I Will do vote analysis in my next post. I think every vamp in the game voted for veldril.

BrownBear posted a few times on how lurkers are where we should be looking for scum. This makes me much more inclined to believe the active posters are the ones we should look at for mafia, not the lurkers.

thegilaboy posted publicly that he doubts there are any more vampire brutes (LOL WIFOM)

in my opinion, jcarlsoniv and aztrorisk are 99% not vampires. Heavonearth, nemesis, and Cubeldin are 99% not mafia.

Vote analysis next up
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 08:03 GMT
#2349
The only lynch analysis I'm gonna look at is for Veldril day 1. Bandwagons onto townies really doesn't tell us much.

Veldril - 16 - Lucktar, YummyBlaBla, kenpachi, annul, youngminii, southrawrea, Masq, grandmoose, HeavOnEarth, oddo123, thegilaboy, kingjames01, Lexpar, MetalFace, Bill Murray, NB

Also bumatlarge changed his vote last minute. Jaminz also changed his vote off Veldril to bill murray, jcarlsoniv changed his vote to masq

Lucktar, YummyBlaBla, youngminii, masq, thegilaboy, kingjames01, lexpar, bill murray, and NB are all dead, that leaves us:

kenpachi, annul, southrawrea, grandmoose, heavonearth, oddo123, metalface, jcarlsoniv, and jaminz

if my counting skill are correct, there are 6 vampires left.

At one point, masq and veldril were neck and neck. I guarantee every vampire was on veldril day 1 to defend their scum buddy. No one switched until it was obvious that masq pulled ahead, which is when bumatlarge changed, jaminz changed. jcarlsoniv changed earlier in the thread...plus I Don't think jcarlsoniv is vamp because of kingjames' vote.

If any of these players have been subbed for I'm not sure because I can't find it in the thread.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 08:05 GMT
#2350
currently mafia is ahead 7 to 6. I'd kinda want to just leave the mafia to kill these players and try to lynch mafia, but they've been doing a much better job of not being transparent...I'm inclined to follow the hittegod lead, especially since a lot of players have been coming to his defense.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
Hittegods
Profile Joined April 2007
Stockholm4641 Posts
October 21 2010 08:08 GMT
#2351
Alright, seems like the old bandwagon is about to take another toll on the townies, me =(. I thought we had learned something and were supposed to go after shady behavior as much, or more, as for clues. Especially since that strategy we've been using is really easy for scum to handle, wait for someone to be pointed out and the just quietly bandwagon, no need to ever post and make yourself look suspicious.
This neo violence, pure self defiance
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 08:53 GMT
#2352
On October 21 2010 17:08 Hittegods wrote:
Alright, seems like the old bandwagon is about to take another toll on the townies, me =(. I thought we had learned something and were supposed to go after shady behavior as much, or more, as for clues. Especially since that strategy we've been using is really easy for scum to handle, wait for someone to be pointed out and the just quietly bandwagon, no need to ever post and make yourself look suspicious.


I suspect you more that people have to come to your clue defense than really the clue itself.

And if we've learned anything, its that clue lynching is a lot better than analysis...artanis was scum, brownbear was scum, masq was scum, kingjames was scum.

Yes we learned something. Obvious clues are awesome
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 09:06 GMT
#2353
annul, cube, and spydr are the ones who have defended hittegods clue analysis, although annul has changed his vote to pm land I guess.

It's more defense than I've seen in other cases...also haven't heard an alternative from hittegod yet.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 21 2010 09:12 GMT
#2354
by the way, any defense i might have of hittegods has nothing to do with a clue analysis. it has to do with the fact that he was one of the ones who PMed me asking to be DT checked BEFORE that clue even came out (read: before he knew he was in danger). if he was a red, why would he ask me to check him?

but after discussing it in PMs with the circle, we concluded it is likely that given his request to be checked, his distrust of me beforehand, and the obvious clue, he is probably the vampire lord. so i changed my vote and most of the circle (if not all of us) will be hitting him.
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 09:14 GMT
#2355
I think spydr's is the most suspicious defense of him honestly. Very likely scum if hittegods is
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 09:15 GMT
#2356
although not really sure why hittegods would be the vampire lord. He hasn't been especially active or anything. I would think Node would be a better candidate out of the two people that who've blue claimed to you. He's much more noticable.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 21 2010 09:17 GMT
#2357
yeah, but node doesn't have a kill clue pointing directly at him. that's what made me stop and think for a minute about him.
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 09:21 GMT
#2358
Just remember that an active vampire is much more likely to be the vampire lord. They're not exactly going to vote in a lurker.

NB was active day 1 and he's the one who got elected on the mafia side. Hittegod being a vampire lord is unlikely, but being scum I agree on. Don't vote him because you think he's a vampire lord, but because you think he's scum.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
October 21 2010 09:27 GMT
#2359
if it were up to you, what would be your kill wagon today, KK?
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 21 2010 09:41 GMT
#2360
metalface, kenpachi, and grandmoose I'm pretty certain are vamps from my analysis.

As for mafia, that's a bit tougher. I think hittegods is scum and I'm liking the obvious clue on him. I think the lurkers are more indicative of townies than scum, and that he scum are more active than people think because of Brownbears posting. I need to look at who defended Artanis' clue analysis and went after glurio instead...I think that's the biggest clue to who is mafia right now
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
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