TL Mafia XXVIII - Page 42

My thoughts: hyperbola is prolly just a quick trigger townie; I'd think a mafia would be too skittish to CONTINUE with it, especially when voting is so thin at this point. Mafia wouldn't have to be desperate as of now. Townie or red, hyperbola is obviously desperate now, with so many votes against him. But the desperation started and caused the bandwagon (according to Pandain). When the hyperbola bandwagon started, voting was evened out so there wouldn't be a need for mafia to bandwagon on someone. Mafia don't really tend to bandwagon anyone day one, at least they don't start the first bandwagon. They might start a second bandwagon to save someone's ass. Doesn't really help prove anyone innocent but I think hyperbola's behavior could be townie and the voting against him could be townie too. In better words, neither action really stick out at me as suspicious but no one's exonerated. Maybe if a team of people desperately work to save him there could be something going on.

I'd like to hear why foolishness is so quiet this game. I've seen him in games as green and games as blue (DT). Both times he was really active and talkative and was somewhat of a leader with plans and so on. I've never seen him quiet and I've never seen him red. Could be an irl thing, could be something else.

Darth...'s plan to "maximize" deaths on Day 1 strikes me as poor thinking. I get that it gets us information, so this could certainly be a townie sentiment. However, I've been red in many past games and I often got pissed off at how much harder it could be to win with just one more townie alive at the end, due to a non-lynch or something similar.

At this point, my vote really is between Darth and hyperbola because it seems too late to rally the town anywhere else. Hyperbola strikes me as green running mouth. The reactions to that at least give the town something, even if he's red. Darth's hanging back and saying something that could be a subtle red move or a legitimate townie move.

Yeah I double checked his other posts, and everything else is Darth clown spamming. As someone nicely put it: he's playing like Chezinu. So I can't be made to feel guilty about voting for him.

In my experience, mafia rarely actually "bandwagon". One or two might hop in for the final vote to kill someone they don't like over the current top target, but usually, they just vote wherever they feel like, based on their posting and what they've said in the past.

The hyperbola bandwagon is just plain stupid imo. Anyone who was "convinced" by Siniquity's argument against hyperbola is also plain stupid. He gave poor reasoning for a random vote, but that does not make him mafia. A lot of the times, mafia play more like Siniquity, pointing out "mistakes" that townies make, and calling them scummy.

My post was to contrast YellowInk's silly no lynch suggestion. Why are we even considering that? We need information. The game is about getting information for the town ASAP so that we can lynch/KP accurately. Therefore, we lynch a someone who is not already going to be modkilled. Pandain, I was only half-joking about it. Lynch someone who has voted but is not helping the town out. Someone like me, but, preferably, not me.

And you're right, I was playing like Chezinu ^_^. He has inspired me.

I might be out for the rest of today. Before you lynch me, consider how many other people have not posted, but have voted. For instance, d3, who is currently voting for me, but has said as little as I have said.


Also, don't PM Opz, PM me!! ^^.

Let's not let this get lost in the shuffle. Red or confused green, I don't think BrownBear is much of a threat right now.

From what I gather, DarthTheinAn is usually a pretty high profile player (won mayor two games ago). This game he is playing obstinate/quiet.

When DTA was red mayor two games ago, "Darth was also an excellent mafia player, managing to sweep his way into office on day 1, but he did overstep his boundaries just a little bit on the last day, and his position as mayor actually worked against him as he was under intense scrutiny, which led to his downfall." Source for that is BrownBear, btw, so... take that into account however you will. But it seems to me if DTA was red this game he'd be trying to take a lower profile this time around.

Some of this is [url=http://www.sirlin.net/articles/balancing-multiplayer-games-part-4-intuition.html]intuition, which I usually don't rely on, but BrownBear strikes me as town and reminds me of RedTooth in a game where I got him killed for similar behavior (I was red that game ). Meanwhile, DTA is clearly taking a low profile. From a player that is usually talkative, this usually means blue / red. I laid that on DTA day 1 and on Foolishness as well. Foolishness did make a bigger post towards the end of the day, but still seemed blue/red to me, and I imagine this was part of the hit reasoning (plus Foolishness is a good veteran player [whose first game was ran by me :D]).

Now you may think that it is too obvious for the mafia to kill off someone who publicly calls them out. It's not. It's good strategy. In fact, I myself killed off Foolishness in a game I won because he was one of the few suspicious of me. If someone suspects you, they won't magically think you're innocent if you let them survive the night. People's heuristics for determining who they will vote for don't tend to shift too wildly over the course of a game. Even if people make a mistaken vote early, they will tend to justify it ex post facto and perhaps continue it (maybe what I'm doing here, but I think I have some good logic to back up my gut feeling). If you are mafia, and a member is getting 3rd/4th place in votes, even with just a couple, that member could be in 1st a few days later. By killing off the people who are suspicious of you, even if their reasons suck, you get talked about less and you literally shave off your vote total. It's not too bad of a strategy to just play whack-a-mole going after all your public detractors because you can always just say you're getting framed. I've been there, done that.

I think Foolishness is right on that DTA would have been an obvious blue-snipe target. I'm not sure why D3crescentia might have been hit; he didn't stick out to me. I'm not familiar with him, though I've been out of the loop for a while and BC called him a top player.

Finally, the Chezinu-style (constant trolling) play always strikes me as red. Maybe it's because I've been on multiple red teams with Chez, but, if you're trying to help the town, it usually pays to actually do so.

##Vote DarthTheinAn

Also, the case against Subversion seems really good to me, too. I'm voting DTA first because DTA already has votes against him and DTA would seem to be the better brain to pluck from the Mafia Think Tank if they are indeed both red.