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TL Mafia XXVIII - Page 40

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chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
July 21 2010 00:25 GMT
#781
##unvote
##vote abstain ...for now
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 00:27 GMT
#782
On July 21 2010 09:09 Subversion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 06:09 citi.zen wrote:
On July 21 2010 05:56 DarthThienAn wrote:
On July 21 2010 05:51 Pandain wrote:
On July 21 2010 05:46 DarthThienAn wrote:

Actually, the mafia made a huge mistake - one of their hits failed, or they stacked their hits on Foolishness, a townie. A smart/good player, but only 1 townie nonetheless. The less people there are, the greater their voting power, it's stupid to stack on night 1. So to me, the statement IS false, but the reason why it's suspicious is that no one would ever genuinely say that -> mafia.



Haha, you're right about that mistake. However, I thought it had been determined that D3 was also hit but protected by a medic. So they didn't stack their hits, one of their hits simply failed. And the more important thing is why would no one say that? Heck, I might say that. "Hey the mafia are doing pretty good." Just to be sure when I'm voting, please explain more.

+ Show Spoiler +
If Subversion IS mafia, i'm so going to kill myself.


There's the possibility that d3 is a mafia faking taking a hit. It's low chance, but not 0% so I didn't leave it out.

Other than that, he's either a veteran and/or got medic protection.

What do you mean? My thoughts: Mafia FAILED last night strategically. Subversion was NOT being sarcastic/joking (look at his post). So why would he say that? Furthermore, even if the mafia HAD failed, saying that "mafia aren't making too many mistakes" is an extremely odd statement to make. Sure, it's not the best lead, but it's better than me, and I'm willing to let BB redeem himself if he happens to be a terrible townie. Subversion, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be on the path to correction at all.

I don't know... I am leaning with Pandain here. Subversion is a brand new player who does not know what to expect in these games. I can see him think... "How do you catch mafia? You watch for mistakes! Have we caught any? Nope. Ah - so thus far they aren't making too many mistakes."

I see no huge red flag. That said, he does not strike me as someone useful for the town so I am OK losing him if there are no better candidates.


THANK YOU fucking hell. I played in ONE NIGHT of harry potter mafia, I got temp banned for some stupid joke and got replaced

This is my first game ffs, I didn't realise what I said would make it "oh gg, he's mafia lol, what a fkn moron". I was trying to be useful

Seems like everyone is jumping on my voting bandwagon, I get what I said was stupid now, although I still don't really understand why its a fucknormous mistake. I was simply stating what to me, was a fairly obvious fact. It was kind of a justification for my vote to be honest. I didn't see any major mistakes, I didn't have anyone I felt REALLY deserved a vote, but I didn't wanna abstain and I thought Hyperbola was fucked anyway. So I read what he said and what others said, there didn't really seem like any better choice, so I just voted for him. Like I said, I didn't really think my vote mattered much anyway. I also had Bill up my ass saying I was gonna be modkilled if I didn't vote!

I really don't want to be voted out here, I don't want to roleclaim either, but I can if necessary??


Really bad idea.

Looking through the perspective of you being green/blue
- the last tally was before the two unvotes so the fact that you thought he was fucked _might_ be true.

Looking through the perspective of you being red
-it's your first game, and you're dropping the ball hard
-you can't hide your scummy side properly
-the "I'm new" card is a good way to stay out of trouble and has been used before by mafia. [After reading DTA's forum when he was red, I noticed that generally the newer players take orders from experienced players to the point.]


That being said, I still suck at behavioral analysis (see my past games) so I'll remain neutral on this matter for a little longer.
##Vote: Abstain
Just keep swimming
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 21 2010 00:28 GMT
#783
I'm really not feeling Subversion as red at this point. The voting was not particularly close, and even if it was, BM's counting was making it look otherwise. Haven't changed my thoughts on Brown Bear either.

@Infundibulum: You said "DTA - probable town, based on his behavior towards Foolishness." I got the opposite vibe from that, I'd just like to hear some more detail on why you felt that way.
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
July 21 2010 00:29 GMT
#784
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 00:31 GMT
#785
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.
Just keep swimming
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
July 21 2010 00:40 GMT
#786
Good point Pandain, i didn't remember that a couple of them said they'd be gone. Still, we can't let people slip under like this.

On July 21 2010 09:28 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I'm really not feeling Subversion as red at this point. The voting was not particularly close, and even if it was, BM's counting was making it look otherwise. Haven't changed my thoughts on Brown Bear either.

@Infundibulum: You said "DTA - probable town, based on his behavior towards Foolishness." I got the opposite vibe from that, I'd just like to hear some more detail on why you felt that way.


The voting was extremely close, actually. It was 5-5 when he voted for Hyper, though he says he thought it was 7-4, and to be fair this is possible since there were mistakes in the vote tally and they weren't counted often. It's Subversions reactions that make me think he might be town who screwed up and is now in over his head.

Well if you look back around page 27 or so, DTA basically goes all out on Foolishness quoting all of his posts, asking "are you so innocent yourself?" And then Foolishness gets killed by the mafia at night. I know that this is a bit of wifom, but i find it hard to think that a red would put himself out like that starting a feud with someone he was targeting.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
July 21 2010 00:42 GMT
#787
On July 21 2010 09:31 LaXerCannon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.


I've already defended this a million times now I told you, there was noone else that looked better, and I didn't want to abstain. Sure, maybe I should've just abstained, but everyone was saying abstaining is stupid and I'm new and I didn't want to fuck up. Lol, that's gone great so far

Also, why the fuck all the attention on my vote? Someone made a great post about how Hyperbola's fate was sealed in a block of 4 or 5 votes within an hour. Why is noone looking at those people? My vote came hours afterwards, when he was already circling the drain. It seems pretty clear to me that I'm just a n00b townie jumping on a bandwagon.

Why has everyone forgotten about the big group of people that STARTED the bandwagon in the 1st place?
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 01:04 GMT
#788
On July 21 2010 09:42 Subversion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 09:31 LaXerCannon wrote:
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.


I've already defended this a million times now I told you, there was noone else that looked better, and I didn't want to abstain. Sure, maybe I should've just abstained, but everyone was saying abstaining is stupid and I'm new and I didn't want to fuck up. Lol, that's gone great so far

Also, why the fuck all the attention on my vote? Someone made a great post about how Hyperbola's fate was sealed in a block of 4 or 5 votes within an hour. Why is noone looking at those people? My vote came hours afterwards, when he was already circling the drain. It seems pretty clear to me that I'm just a n00b townie jumping on a bandwagon.

Why has everyone forgotten about the big group of people that STARTED the bandwagon in the 1st place?


I didn't say that that wasn't the case. I merely said why it's a bad idea. If you look, I didn't even vote for you.

To answer your questions:
1. It was 5-5 with hyperbola going to die. two people unvoted near the end -> mafia thinks that another might bail making it 4-5 so by adding one more vote, you're putting the nail on the coffin.

2. Mafia has no reason to start a bandwagon on the very first day.
Just keep swimming
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
July 21 2010 01:12 GMT
#789
Your two reasons contradict each other imo.

You're saying that Hyperbola was a mafia vote - but you're also saying the people who started the bandwagon with 5 votes are likely not mafia?

That makes no sense =/
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
July 21 2010 01:15 GMT
#790
On July 21 2010 10:04 LaXerCannon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 09:42 Subversion wrote:
On July 21 2010 09:31 LaXerCannon wrote:
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.


I've already defended this a million times now I told you, there was noone else that looked better, and I didn't want to abstain. Sure, maybe I should've just abstained, but everyone was saying abstaining is stupid and I'm new and I didn't want to fuck up. Lol, that's gone great so far

Also, why the fuck all the attention on my vote? Someone made a great post about how Hyperbola's fate was sealed in a block of 4 or 5 votes within an hour. Why is noone looking at those people? My vote came hours afterwards, when he was already circling the drain. It seems pretty clear to me that I'm just a n00b townie jumping on a bandwagon.

Why has everyone forgotten about the big group of people that STARTED the bandwagon in the 1st place?


I didn't say that that wasn't the case. I merely said why it's a bad idea. If you look, I didn't even vote for you.

To answer your questions:
1. It was 5-5 with hyperbola going to die. two people unvoted near the end -> mafia thinks that another might bail making it 4-5 so by adding one more vote, you're putting the nail on the coffin.

2. Mafia has no reason to start a bandwagon on the very first day.


You know, if subversion is mafia and he voted for Hyperbola, that means that Youngmini is mafia too. Now that brings up the question, is Youngmini Mafia? Now, we have a Secret Friendship Alliance, and that is even more sacred than bff rings. So I do not believe he is mafia.
Other people's thoughts?

Intresting Tidbit: If Youngmini IS mafia, that also means that it is less likely chaoser is mafia. Since Youngmini did vote for lynching Chaoser.
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
July 21 2010 01:16 GMT
#791
On July 21 2010 09:42 Subversion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 09:31 LaXerCannon wrote:
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.


I've already defended this a million times now I told you, there was noone else that looked better, and I didn't want to abstain. Sure, maybe I should've just abstained, but everyone was saying abstaining is stupid and I'm new and I didn't want to fuck up. Lol, that's gone great so far

Also, why the fuck all the attention on my vote? Someone made a great post about how Hyperbola's fate was sealed in a block of 4 or 5 votes within an hour. Why is noone looking at those people? My vote came hours afterwards, when he was already circling the drain. It seems pretty clear to me that I'm just a n00b townie jumping on a bandwagon.

Why has everyone forgotten about the big group of people that STARTED the bandwagon in the 1st place?

You came in with the deciding vote in the end. Hyperbola's fate wasn't sealed and he easily could have been the one still alive today and not youngminii. The person who started Hyperbola's vote train was the guy Hyperbola accused at the very beginning without reading anything. The Mafia has no reason to start a bandwagon on Day 1. No need to risk, especially when they know who's what and they have the power to pretty much bandwagon any vote at the last minute to skew it in their favor.

Which brings us back to you, the deciding vote in the end. I'd say you sealed Hyperbola's fate by jumping on board late, which can very possibly be due to Mafia bandwagoning at the last moment. Also, don't bring up this noob card. No one cares if you're a noob.
God Bless
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
July 21 2010 01:21 GMT
#792
Also, at the time Subversion voted, if he had been following up to that point he should have thought it was 4-3 (Hyperbola-Youngmini.) Two people had just unvoted Hyperbola,(neither of them changed their vote to youngmini.) It turns out BM had miscounted the votes(As far as I am aware), but if Subversion had not known that, his vote would have just made it a tie, not have been the deciding factor.

Another thing; If the Mafia HAD been aware of BM's miscalculation, and Subversion IS part of the mafia, than perhaps the mafia did do this to save Youngmini. So the question comes down to whether the mafia was aware or not.
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
July 21 2010 01:22 GMT
#793
On July 19 2010 05:38 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
Vote Count:
6] Hyperbola (Misder, Divinek, Pandain, Zeks, SiNiquity, bumatlarge)
3] YoungMinii (XeliN, Amber[LighT, Roffles)
2] DarthThienAn (d3_crescentia, Pyrrhuloxia)
2] ketomai (citi.zen, lakrismamma)
2] Amber[LighT] (jayme, DarthThienAn),
1] citi.zen (rastaban)
1] BC (~opz~)
1] SiNiquity (Hyperbola)
1] Pandain (BC)
1] LaXerCannon (tree.hugger)
1] Infundibulum (youngminii)

5] abstain (LaXerCannon, tricode, SouthRawrea, Foolishness, Chaoser)

Not voting and in risk of modkill: 4] brownbear, Infundibulum, Subversion, ketomai


If you wish to replace into this game, PM me, and I will replace someone who I modkill.
I have class, so this will be the last vote count until I get back if I have time later.
the day ends in a little under 4 1/2 hours, at 9pm est/10kst


This is the message I saw.

Voting was 6-3 and I was threatening to be modkilled. I didn't have a lot of time to go over stuff, and I didn't want to be modkilled. So I read over some stuff as quickly as I could, and looked like everyone had it in for Hyperbola. I didn't want to rock the boat, abstain, or be modkilled, so I voted for him. End of story.
SiNiquity
Profile Joined April 2010
United States734 Posts
July 21 2010 01:29 GMT
#794
On July 21 2010 10:21 Pandain wrote:
Also, at the time Subversion voted, if he had been following up to that point he should have thought it was 4-3 (Hyperbola-Youngmini.) Two people had just unvoted Hyperbola,(neither of them changed their vote to youngmini.) It turns out BM had miscounted the votes(As far as I am aware), but if Subversion had not known that, his vote would have just made it a tie, not have been the deciding factor.

Another thing; If the Mafia HAD been aware of BM's miscalculation, and Subversion IS part of the mafia, than perhaps the mafia did do this to save Youngmini. So the question comes down to whether the mafia was aware or not.


I tried explaining this earlier but did a piss poor job. In short, BM's miscalculation was only after the day was over. BM had a vote tally before that, but Jaymee (the vote that was miscounted) voted after that tally.

So if the Mafia had their own internal tally going (not entirely unlikely - quick PM saying "holy shit it's 5-5"), they could have realized it was 5-5 and pushed it one way or the other. It could also be a coincidence and the Mafia are sitting back laughing at their fortunate circumstances.
'i' before 'e' except after 'c' ~ it's scientifically proven.
SiNiquity
Profile Joined April 2010
United States734 Posts
July 21 2010 01:32 GMT
#795
--BM tally (6-3)-- [correct]
<voting>
--Final tally (6-4)-- [incorrect, should be 6-5]

^ crappy diagram of what happened. But honestly I feel at this point it's a sidetrack only serving to derail the discussion.
'i' before 'e' except after 'c' ~ it's scientifically proven.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
July 21 2010 01:34 GMT
#796
On July 21 2010 10:32 SiNiquity wrote:
--BM tally (6-3)-- [correct]
<voting>
--Final tally (6-4)-- [incorrect, should be 6-5]

^ crappy diagram of what happened. But honestly I feel at this point it's a sidetrack only serving to derail the discussion.


How so? Explain of course. I mean, we only have a limited time to discuss so any conversations we can put aside will be helpful.
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 01:37 GMT
#797
On July 21 2010 10:12 Subversion wrote:
Your two reasons contradict each other imo.

You're saying that Hyperbola was a mafia vote - but you're also saying the people who started the bandwagon with 5 votes are likely not mafia?

That makes no sense =/


can you not think of a scenario that involves both? dumb people start the vote then the mafia sees a chance and helps it in anyway possible.

of course, it's just a scenario and is not fact
Just keep swimming
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
July 21 2010 01:39 GMT
#798
Sure, its possible.

But if you truly think it was a mafia instigation, it would seem that those original voters were at least worth looking at.

I think my defense of my vote really does make sense, I don't know why I am the only one explaining myself here.

Is it REALLY just because I said "mafia aren't making too many mistakes'?
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 21 2010 01:50 GMT
#799
My scumdar indicates that Subversion is not scum. I think that his bandwagon has to be one of the most interesting developments in the game so far. I refuse to believe that a load of townies simply jumped on because he said 'mafia aren't making too many mistakes'. There is at least one mafia in his bandwagon and I am convinced it is chaoser.
lalala
SiNiquity
Profile Joined April 2010
United States734 Posts
July 21 2010 01:54 GMT
#800
Ahh, there's 2 problems lol. I didn't catch this in my first review.

Ok, so BM posts:

On July 19 2010 05:38 Bill Murray wrote:
Vote Count:
6] Hyperbola (Misder, Divinek, Pandain, Zeks, SiNiquity, bumatlarge)
3] YoungMinii (XeliN, Amber[LighT, Roffles)


But Infundibulum was the first to vote for youngminii. So his vote was missed. At this point it was actually 6 - 4.

This is what follows:
On July 19 2010 06:30 BrownBear wrote:
###Vote: Hyperbola

7 - 4
On July 19 2010 07:53 Jayme wrote:

##Unvote
##Vote: Youngminii

7 - 5
On July 19 2010 08:38 Misder wrote:
##Unvote: Hyperbola
Vote: LaXerCannon


6 - 5

On July 19 2010 08:58 zeks wrote:
##unvote hyperbola
##abstain

5 - 5
On July 19 2010 09:16 Subversion wrote:
##Vote: Hyperbola


6 - 5

BM then doesn't count Jaymee's vote in the final tally for youngminii, quoting 6 - 4.
'i' before 'e' except after 'c' ~ it's scientifically proven.
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