EPTTL Mafia XXVII
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 05 2010 07:08 Qatol wrote: But getting you killed is so much fun! It's obvious why he always does it. EXACTLY. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
I'ma accept the moral victory for scaring him :3. (also, ace-kins, amazon is selling pre-orders for GW2 and I expect you there). So yeah, lets read some rules and think up STRATEGIES, brb. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 10 2010 07:20 flamewheel wrote: Hmm... Semi-open setups are tricky, since we know what roles there can be but not the number. However, since there is a given number of mafia we should be able to roughly estimate what kind of blue powers (and/or extraneous mafia powers) there are in the game. 17 people and four mafia, so the mafia comprise 23.5% of the town's population. Normally in Incognito's games, the mafia comprise a flat 20% of the total population and blue roles are adjusted based on that, and given the fact that there are more varied roles than in these more 'standard' games, I'd assume we'd have some of those. Let's see... Incognito likes Mad Hatters. I can't remember if that is his or Qatol's (perhaps both?) favourite role, but most likely there will be one Hatter. Obviously, it'd be ludicrous to say that there isn't a medic, though the question is whether or not there's one medic or two. I'm split between the numbers, since either could work... A self-saving medic is way more powerful, and that would mean there would probably only be one medic. However, Incognito has ninja'ed in the fact that medics cannot save themselves, so two medics is probable. Between the Watcher/Stalker and DT there's more likely to be a DT. Watchers and Stalkers are cute roles, and I'd count them as half a blue role. There'll probably be one of either. There is a Veteran, most likely. Since it is a passive blue role, I'd count it as a half. Because you can't have too many blue roles without balancing Mafia powers as well... There will probably be a Mafia-aligned Day vigilante, and perhaps a town-aligned one. If there are two medics (or two of anything) I'd find it more likely that there'd be a roleblocker. Probably to throw off the DT, there will be one, at most but probably not, two Millers. Of course, this is all conjectural based on how I would potentially balance a game. Well, as far as I can see it, there's two possibilities. We probably have a single day-vig in the game based on how the role was described; Its put apart in a black format and given that the role counts are useless, I'd have expected a red/blue name instead. If there is just one Dvig, then there's 3 possibilities: 1) Real SK type with alternate win goals. Highly unlikely given a single day shot. 2) Town controlled day vig, maybe 4 blues total besides the Dvig, medic, dt, watcher, vet/hatter. 3) Mafia controlled Dvig. - If there's a roleblocker there are probably 7 blues. 1 of each type most likely. - If there isn't, I'd guess 5-6. Double medics in a 1 kp setup is absolutely ridiculous, have both claim early and have the watcher check them. You will have a 50% chance at finding the roleblocker. If a vet or hatter lied and stepped up to get blown up, even more ridiculously powerful. Gives DT and watchers 3 free checks. Given that if double medics are in play, I'd count them as 3 blues for the above totals. So how do we abuse this information? Well, its simple, pimple. We can do this 2 ways. 1) Mass roleclaim asap because mafia need to spend 7 days shredding our blue totals. Unlike the prior game with 0 minute long days and 3 total kp/day (of which, the town kp was only marginally controlled), we now have full days and 2 kp total, which means this game will go until day 6 at the minimum. Medics obviously lie and vet/hatter claim DT/Watcher respectively so that mafia are 50% screened in their attempt at hitting any of our info roles. That way its pretty impossible to hit into our blues safely. 2) RANDOM BULLSHIT. Given that 1) is a better plan, we'll probably end up having haters bring the hate because my name is a letter long and go with 2) under fears that a nearly impossible to lose game will crumble under the weight of "L is too dangerous to listen to". Your call. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
I understand. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? Well, maybe try reading the plan before posting. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Outing yourself as the tracker which is probably the most powerful blue role this game seems like such a terrible idea right now. Unless he's a hatter or vet and is claiming as instructed. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
I'm off to sleep. I work now so I won't be around during the day but i'll be back around 8pm est. maybe i'll post tmr morning if i'm not too sleepy. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 10 2010 17:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: L your plan has some flaws. 1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG. 2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day. 3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers. I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L. Gotta go to work so only a quick recap: 1) DT needs to find sanity regardless of any plan we use. We also wouldn't kill the DT after seeing that the target he calls flips miller. REALLY poor logic on your part seeing as the uncertainty exists because of the role. I haven't specified a use for the DT (yet), so worrying that we'll hit a miller is pretty hilarious. 2) Ok. Let them lie. If we have a legit DT, we trade a DT for a mafia member on day 1, which is pretty tits given how weak our DTs are. 3) Then we end with 9+ blues and we know people are lying and that the majority of our townies are legit. Mafia are now in a position where they need to lie about their night actions and lie about them correctly. I say no one visited, say, citi.zen because I watched him? Well, fuck, a medic or DT did. Or shit, a tracker watched me and saw that I didn't visit anyone. I mean, your objections aren't flaws at all. There ARE flaws, but those aren't any of them. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
YES i do tell 3 classes of people to lie about their role. Vet/hatter need to claim to be dt/watcher/tracker. Medic needs to lie in whatever way he feels necessary. Why? Because this forces mafia to lie. If we had everyone claim and we have like only 4 blues total, we KNOW they're legit because the number's hyper low. If we have everyone claim and we have 9 blues, we KNOW some of them are lying. No other role should lie, and the roles that ARE lying should only be lying in the way set out above. On that note, I'm townie, brosefs. We have decided there is probably around 4-5 greens Look at the game numbers. 17 players. 13 town. 4 mafia. 7 blue roles. We're likely to have 4-7 blues max, giving us at the worst 6 greens. The game is 1 kp with 17 players in play. Every correct lynch we have buys us a day. Every medic prot buys us a day. We have potential 3 information roles. With 2 players down a day and a minimum of 8 people alive if we chain-mishit, we have 9 deaths until we're in near death situation. That means we can screw up every single day until day 5 and still win. Given that, I'd be very shocked to see us packing 8-9 blues as per your estimate. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 12 2010 08:03 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok so we have 1 tracker, 1 watcher, and 2 detectives claimed. This makes sense according to L's plan, as 2 of them are hatter/vets and are lying. If you have claimed townie or have not RC'd at all and are one of the roles that should be claiming tracker/watcher then do so immediately so we have a better idea of whether there are mafia hiding in the blue RCs. Otherwise we can probably trust the RC'd blues. Changing my vote from meeple to redtooth as per radfield's above reasoning. If meeple is lying we can probably figure it out later. That sounds about right if we have a medic who's refused to claim and that one of the DTs is a Vet/Hatter. If no one's lying thusfar, that's pretty odd, because that would mean there's no Dvig, and quite frankly introducing a new role then not using it is pretty fucked. So the Dvig has thus refused to claim, which is kinda odd given that I'd have expected him to get priority for medic protection, but the alternative scenario, a mafia Dvig, is unlikely unless we have multiple townie liars. So yeah, good showing but there's 1-2 holdouts that are kinda fucking stage 2. Please do not use your night roles until I give you brosefs some heads up. Don't want to give a mafia Dvig the chance to sacrifice himself to prevent an assured win by spilling the beans now. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Anyways, so the plan basically goes like this; Tracker tracks our DTs. Watchers watch any of our blues. If one of DTs is bullshitting, we'll be able to figure it out immediately. DTs can check our blues if they want, but given the sanity issue I can understand another checks. Sound decent? Comments plz. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 12 2010 10:29 MooCow wrote: I'm investigating meeple because he was 2nd highest on the votes for being lynched and no one else recommended any other candidates. Please do not send in your night action right away!!! Important that we talk about our 2 DT check targets. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 12 2010 11:26 meeple wrote: Why exactly are you asking me instead of doing some thinking on your own?If one of our dt's checks come back red... do we act? How likely is he paranoid? How likely is he's really mafia and just pretending to be paranoid? | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 12 2010 11:51 meeple wrote: lol well apparently you're the man with the plan... also I was asking the town. No need to get all defensive I'm not being defensive. I'm wondering why you're purposely not answering your own question. This post hasn't really answered the question either, so feel free to get to it whenever you feel like doing some work. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 13 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Hey guys, just wanted to let you know I got role blocked last night. Guess the mafia thought I was blue. What this is means is that if no one else claims to have been role blocked last night, this is evidence for me being town-aligned, which means that we should be able to narrow down what kind of detective ludwig is. Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched, but hey, I'm just saying what happened. Wait, why would you be told that you were roleblocked unless you had a role? Are you trying to dodge getting killed for the DT confirmation? Also, I really hope our medic was at least protecting our watcher last night. DT is protected because we probably have a fake and watcher is a weaker role. Without Dvig claimed, I have no idea why the medic wouldn't have protected the tracker. Anyways, time for night role information! Hopefully we've found some interesting stuff via DT or watcher. If not, I think we have enough information to make an educated guess about our hits tonight regardless. Incog, on a rules point: do you notify vanilla townies about roleblocks? Not sure that even answerable fairly at this point. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Yeah, really hoping our watcher turned something up. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 13 2010 10:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: L, please post your ideas before we get information about the night actions back. Then, we will know whether you are a legit townie or a mafia who is trying to bend the evidence one way or the other. Well, derp derp. You were supposed to be checked by our DTs. If we had a hatter or a vet in our DT group, our watcher should know who he is and be able to confirm the other DT as legit. He should also be able to figure out who the roleblocker is if he checked you if you aren't bullshitting. Basically the question here is whether or not we're killing you today and I'd kinda like information regarding who's lying and who isn't. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 13 2010 11:22 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I'd kind of like to hear the various things you are thinking about before you have evidence to work with, because you are either a dickwad or an intelligent mafiso, and i'd like to be confident that you are just a dickwad. Well, derp, depends what the watcher has to say. If the watcher says a single person visited you and there's no one else that claims they were blocked, things are ez pz, we kill that person. If we find out one of our DTs was blocked, then its pretty obvious you're lying. If multiple people visited you and no one else claims to have been blocked and incog confirms that people without roles are informed of being blocked, then we've found a lead on the roleblocker. If the watcher didn't watch you and instead decided to shit around, I dunno what to tell you. I understand you're trying to play some form of accusation trading defense, but if you're so confident that the watcher won't contradict you you should be gagging for him to show up and clear things up, no? | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 13 2010 12:01 Incognito wrote: Rereading the rules is never a bad thing. Thanks bro. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 13 2010 11:58 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Shit looks like meeple didn't watch me last night unless he changed his mind after this post. I'm kinda hoping he was trying to fake out the roleblocker with that. Then again, if he checked Ludwig he might have found and confirmed our medic. If that's the case, please don't tell us who he is unless he's going to get bussed. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 13 2010 14:06 meeple wrote: Heh... well it does give some sticky situations since we can't actually rely that much on the detectives results... but it does give us some starting points. In my eyes, AFJ is slightly greener... not only because one of our "dts" seem to have confirmed what he claimed but also because of his lack of complaining under all this scrutiny. If he were red, I imagine he would be squirming a bit more... Of course, there's always the possibility that both MooCow and AFJ are mafia and coordinating this... which would explain both the result and the lack of complaining. I highly doubt that MooCow would suggest and check someone who is also mafia given that our current plan is to axe him in order to give DTs role information. Its possible that one is trying to set the other up, but both of them being mafia seems incredibly unlikely. You not checking AFJ kinda makes getting information our DTs harder, but if you've confirmed that there's a medic, that's awesome. The problem is that now our lynch choice is much harder. I personally don't think AFJ is mafia because he's acting pretty emotionally, but I haven't gone through his past games to see how he plays mafia. If that's the case, then its possible that up to 3 people visited AFJ yesterday. If i'm right and he's not mafia, then he isn't the medic either because he wouldn't lie about being roleblocked and meeple picked up a medic. Unless meeple is lying or if the hatter dropped a bomb on ludwig and thinks he and meeple are both mafia which seems very unlikely. So basically we're kinda at a null point in terms of the objective information. We can either kill AFJ to let our DTs narrow their potential sanities, or we can attempt to find someone else. Personally, I have tomorrow off and don't need to work all day, which means I'll have time to look into 2 people too. I think i'll pick flamewheel and foolishness because 1) flamewheel is cute and 2) foolishness is not posting which piques my interest. If I'm too busy to do a full post history on those 2, I'll do a gut feeling map of the people playing like I did last game. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
either way, I'm getting some shut eye. its 3am. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
If I'd be able to guess, I'd say that he might be one of the blue roles that hasn't said anything yet. If he's green then maybe that's a tell that he suffers from a lack of motivation during his non-role games. Anyways, back to writing on foolishness. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 14 2010 07:12 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2010 06:41 Foolishness wrote: WHOA WHOA WHOA! So you requested Veteran and got denied. That's great and all. Hey for any non vets out there, did you know that you could request roles before the game starts? I sure didn't. Hey Incognito, why didn't you PM me and ask me if I wanted a certain role? At this point, everyone is more important than you. "waa waaaa I'm upset I didn't get the role I wanted waaa". Nobody needs to hear your QQ about not getting a "good" role. And now your assumption that "oh well I didn't get that role somebody else must have gotten it because I'm special" now just makes you sound like a pompous player. Thanks for your contribution there, it really opened my eyes on the current town situation and I feel like I have a better understanding of what's going on. Oh, can you PLEEEEAAAASSSEEE ask more questions in your posts? I honestly enjoy when someone feigns contribution by writing a bunch of rhetorical questions/possibilities that have already been discussed in the thread. I imagine that because flamewheel hosts so many games, he got a special bonus from a fellow host. Not a big deal. More importantly, after being mostly inactive since midway through the first day, why are you focusing on this and not more pressing matters? Because he wanted to make a post that appears to have content but doesn't. Does anyone know how to use TL's search to find all of someone's posts in a certain thread? Would make this much easier for me. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 14 2010 07:17 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: sorry, here's the correct link http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=AcrossFiveJulys&gb=date Its like the fifth time I used that for foolishness. I guess I was misspelling his name. Post comin' soon :3 | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Foolishness at the time of me writing this has: Posts at the: 66 84 100 111 168 173 179 283 429 432 positions in the thread. There's a very strong concentration around the early game, then a strong trending presence late. 66-100: Foolishnesses first three posts are pre-game, but they're very interesting in light of developments to come. In 66, Foolishness basically jokes and says he's been mafia quite a lot and that he wants to be mafia again. In 84, Foolishness asks for the game to be delayed if people want him to play, then he's cool with the starting time in 100 and signs up. In 111, Foolishness asks if PMing is allowed. K. Post game start: In 168 Foolishness basically puts up an empty post. He does nothing more than lightly beratethe plan and tell someone else he doesn't care about something. Odd. In 173 he starts dogging flamewheel with an admittedly Chez-like post. He asks a bunch of questions and leaves things like that. Again: Odd. In 179 he basically starts up by stating that tree.hugger couldn't possibly be the tracker because claiming would be stupid. He also suggests killing Ohn in a one liner and drops the idea. This post marks the first bit of Foolishness's productive content. 100 posts later in 283, Foolishness makes a one liner townie claim. 429 rips on Flamewheel for rather irrelevant shit. 432 paints Flamewheel as Godfather because he asked the host for a role. Foolishness has 2 posts after this. 1 is large and with real content. The other is small and does not. First, to deal with a claim made of me: I appreciate the concern, but I just made a post with content (although I'm sure you're going to claim otherwise for the sake of your argument). And AFJ even posted my PM where I said I'd be gone for a bit. I know I'm going to regret writing this because you're going to jump on me and claim I'm mafia off of ridiculous assumptions, but as you said "haters bring the hate". No, you don't appreciate the concern. You didn't post that PM in the thread. You didn't tell the town that you were going to be afk. You replied to a PM and stayed silent about your activity, trying to downplay suspicion. You clearly weren't as afk as you'd have liked it to appear because you were worming around in PMs. Why the hell wouldn't you go "hey bros, busy weekend"? I had a lot of work to do this week and said so. Why hide shit? What's more, why the well timed inactivity and reappearance? You specificially wanted the game to start later then were happy about its start time, so what's up with that? You've been known to do this in many of your games as blue or mafia, you go afk at the start to keep yourself alive until you're excessively prodded, and only then do you go to work. Typically you wait until day 3, but I guess you were worried that AFJ would pass the buck onto you today? I mean, I have no idea what to think here. You're either the medic, the day vig or a mafia member. That said, you're suspicious as all hell. I wouldn't advocate killing you today, nor do I feel like pushing against you because I think there's a high possibility that it'll force meeple to come out to defend you if you are the medic, which would essentially end the game for us. There's a lot in your post history that doesn't add up. I'm going to check something so give me a few hours. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Your last defense is essentially: I hate people who give the town information. and I play anti-town every game (ignoring the fact that you've been mafia for the vast majority of your recent games). That's pretty fucked. I've finished the thing I mentioned earlier, so I'm pretty solid on the idea that we shouldn't kill you for today. That said, if we kill AFJ today and he flips red, you are 100% our next target. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:47 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Uhhhh care to explain why lynching foolishness makes sense if I were to flip red? o_O No. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: then don't shit on the thread with your useless, non-backed-up thoughts. They're pretty useful because if I'm killed tonight after you're lynched, I'd rather that mafia members don't survive. If you actually are town, the statement would have been null to you anyways. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 14 2010 11:05 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Why are you taking every opportunity you have to try to make me look bad? I was interested in your reasoning behind that statement because it would be informative to know whether there is any semblance of logic behind why you want me lynched (allows me to know whether you are a mafia trying to bandwagon me or a townie who is overly paranoid). I was taking every opportunity to breadcrumb a 100% mafia kill because if you flip red and I die, or if I'm Dvigged by mafia prior to your lynch, the information I have would dissapear. If you're red, its possible that you lied about the roleblock, which means that mafia might not even have a roleblocker, which means that I might get Dvigged at any time during the thread. Are you red, though? Probably not, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't put out information as a contingency plan. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Let's make a deal -- you analyze citizen and actually spend a few minutes reading my post explaining why lynching me isn't a good idea, and I'll do the 2 analyses I mentioned. Do them anyways if you're town. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On June 18 2010 10:33 Foolishness wrote: So what was up with that PM ludwig sent? I don't think there's a rational explanation for anything that ludwig did that game. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Negatory, commander. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
No idea what happened in the PMs but reading the thread lots of things felt like Mafia had no idea what to do with the roleclaims. We didn't have IRC because I had work. Bad news blues. | ||
| ||
