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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
On April 22 2010 07:24 Abenson wrote: Why? He doesn't really care. In fact, he wants the game to last longer, and therefore he wouldn't want to give out mafia's names. he wouldn't hit them in the night with his nightkill because they're not an assassin and not relevant to his win condition | ||
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nbtnbt5
232 Posts
On April 22 2010 06:25 Bill Murray wrote: Just because Ace rolechecked him, and he acted like a DT, I'd like to remind you of WHY he's NOT a confirmed DT. He can say "well I wouldn't do that as an assassin" but his only possible argument of not being an assassin is literally a scummy argument. there are 3 options: a) Ace is a detective. This is great for us, as the best player is on our side. b) Ace is an assassin. This isn't terrible for us, as the best player is for himself (we can ignore him) Remember, assassins get rolechecks. I find this likely, as he has already defended one accusation of this. I'm not saying "lets lynch ace, he's an assassin!", all I'm saying is remember he could be. c) Ace is a good guesser. I don't see this being the case, regardless. He wouldn't do this. Do I personally think he's a DT? Yes. Do I think he could be an assassin? Yes. Either way, we have reds to hunt. and even if he isn't a DT, but an assassin then wouldn't it benefit us (for now) to keep him alive? On April 20 2010 13:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. also what is this and where can i find it? (i tried searching for it) | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
So can you guys just hurry up and finish voting double lynch so we can move to the night phase? | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 06:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:But given the logic posted by Korynne, it wouldn't make sense for BC to be red since he was Aces strongest opponent. I'm more wary of RoL given the circumstances of his roleclaim - right after Ace, and right after I pointed out that he hadn't really contributed anything to the town since he get back, despite saying he would. I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia. I don't know what we should do tomorrow yet, I guess see how night turns out. Unless BC turns out Miller I think we're probably lynching one of BC/RoL? Then I think we should focus on some of the more inactive/lurking people. Protoss is still on my suspicion list, so is Scaramanga (from his replies to my post). Tree.hugger needs to explain how he came up with the strange logic... Watch out for Infund if BC comes up mafia. But anyway I'm not going to analyze anyone too much now, going to wait for night results. Don't forget to vote for/against double lynch guys! | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 08:27 nbtnbt5 wrote: also what is this and where can i find it? (i tried searching for it) Uhhh... xD If you look on the Mafia forum, and then look for the ONLY THREAD THAT ZBOT STARTED THAT HAPPENS TO HAVE THE SAME NUMBER FOR MAFIA AS THIS GAME, I think you would find it? xP Why is this so hard? xD [Link provided here incase you still cannot find it] This reflects poorly on your abilities in general. >_> | ||
tree.hugger
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote: Actually, now that I think about it, Caller being a miller seems the best for Ace being detective (like better than if Caller ended up being mafia). What happy coincidence. If you guys say Ace is the best player, then I think we have a good chance to win! =) I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia. I don't know what we should do tomorrow yet, I guess see how night turns out. Unless BC turns out Miller I think we're probably lynching one of BC/RoL? Then I think we should focus on some of the more inactive/lurking people. Protoss is still on my suspicion list, so is Scaramanga (from his replies to my post). Tree.hugger needs to explain how he came up with the strange logic... Watch out for Infund if BC comes up mafia. But anyway I'm not going to analyze anyone too much now, going to wait for night results. Don't forget to vote for/against double lynch guys! Strange logic? Now easy there, you might disagree with my read on the mafia, and I acknowledge in a heartbeat that I think you made some good points, but let's not pretend that what I said has been in any way empirically disproved. Lets recap: I suggested that, knowing that Ace was wrong, the mafia were more likely than not to conclude that he was making it up. Therefore, it is more likely than not that they in some way covered their tracks, and made sure to not be seen as leading the charge for Caller's death. At the same time, it seems likely to me that some may have taken the opportunity to cash in their knowledge for town-cred. I mainly used this logic as a way to further point the FoS at BC. Consider how good his position suddenly looks if Ace has found to be making his rolecheck up. Suddenly Ace is the one lynched, and BC looks like the pro-town vet, calling Ace on his bluff. It's plausible, but again, you've suggested otherwise, and fairly compellingly. That's not to say that one of us is obviously wrong or right, it's merely a difference of opinion that we ought to come back to after the game, and analyze. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
I'd like to discuss an obvious issue which hasn't yet gotten too much attention. I am going to go with the assumption that Ace is a detective, assassin, or another non mafia role. I believe this to be the case because if he was mafia, he would not want to claim caller was mafia after a "rolecheck" and have him flip townie and therefore suffer a lynch the next day, lowing mafia KP. The only way I see for this not to be the case is if the mafia went for a very risky strategy hoping that caller was a miller and succeeded, but that's just not likely at all. Ok, so it seems that Ace is not mafia, and most likely is a detective or assassin due to his pointing out caller as red after a rolecheck. Now that I have justified that assumption, let's think about what that implies about the people who voted for caller: Voted for caller: Ace Falcynn nAi.PrOtOsS Incognito DarthThienAn RebirthOfLeGenD motbob meeple IntoTheWow Scaramanga Korynne RaGe d3_crescentia Osmoses Scamp Are these people likely or unlikely to be scum? Since ace "rolechecked" caller, there was a good case for townies to lynch him. So mafia knew that enough townies would vote to lynch caller, but they also knew caller would flip green. As such, I believe that most if not all people on that list are not mafia. If the town were to focus on people on this list (which is commonly the case when a green is lynched) they would be completely wasting their time, which is great for mafia. Drawing on this observation, here are the people that are left: BrownBear tree.hugger KF91 iNfuNdiBuLuM BloodyC0bbler Bill Murray Fishball Abenson JadeFist Roffles nbtnbt5 love1another AcrossFiveJulys madnessman So therefore AcrossFiveJulys must be mafia. Wait... But anyway, that's a juicy list, and I think we should focus on those people. | ||
motbob
United States12546 Posts
But here's why the "evenly distributed" strategy works best in this case. Let's say that RebirthOfLeGenD, IntoTheWow, and I are discovered to be mafia. Suddenly there are three names on the top list. Pattern recognition is a skill that every human possesses, so the rest of the people on the "voted for Caller" list will immediately be under suspicion, even though the rest of the mafia members are in the "didn't vote for Caller" list. Also, it's clear that Ace is a detective. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
BloodyC0bbler Fishball KF91 Abenson RebirthOfLeGend BrownBear (aka zona before) madnessman | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
Current thoughts on the situation: Ace is DT, small probability that he's Assassin, very very small probability that he isn't. At the very least we can trust his checks even if his judgments aren't spot on (though Caller hadn't really been making much sense at the time). At this point we really need to look at the dynamics BC/RoL. I'd also like to go back to judging Meeple since I thought his indecisive language could be a tell, so a follow-up on that would be good. @AcrossFiveJulys, a few things to point out about your logic of lists. Does it occur to you that the mafia would deliberately spread out votes as to avoid being lumped together? Furthermore, does it occur to you that we'd have some mafia on the first list to speed up the Caller lynch since we're operating on a majority-lynch system? Let's be fair here, the majority of players on the first list are likely pro-town, but it seems odd that you would advocate dropping the first list altogether from analysis. Instead we should probably be comparing a combination of vote/post/activity analysis as per each list. What are your thoughts? Good night, everybody. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Ok, the actual non-caller list intersected with the jpak list: BloodyC0bbler Fishball KF91 Abenson Brownbear | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
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IntoTheWow
is awesome32277 Posts
I was right thought, Caller didn't seem THAT suspicious to me. I mean, he made some mistakes in terms of the list logic and something else, but he still went after the people most of "the town" suspects of. In the last pages, there was a point of no return for him, and he knew it, so he didn't really bother trying to make a case for himself but rather trying to figure out what was happening with BC + Ace. Also, I see some people pointing me as Mafia, what? Check posting history people. I see a lot of people just making conjectures based on conjectures from other players. I would also check on people who were silent during Caller's bandwagoning. As a mafia the best thing to do seems to just ride the "Ace is DT" logic from some pages ago, see Caller turning green (I guess the mafia didn't expect him to be Miller) and then blame it on Ace. In the case of Ace not being scum, the mafia would have just cleared Caller and Ace and it would be Ace's fault, not the people bandwagoning behind him. I hope the above is understandable, I just came from uni and my brain is a fried egg. | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On April 22 2010 11:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: BC, why did you vote against double lynch? When you watch the town lynch someone based on really retarded logic, and have already seen them continue it. I'll vote because I have to, but till you smarten up, I'm not helping, simple really. | ||
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