EPTOr rather, given I have an assignment due on wednesday, seems smart to get it done now rather than later :o.
TL Mafia XVIII - Page 65
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Or rather, given I have an assignment due on wednesday, seems smart to get it done now rather than later :o. | ||
|
Abenson
Canada4122 Posts
Great... what can we do? Do we just wait for the mafia to hit? I hope i don't die on day 2 like last game TT.TT | ||
|
Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
Ace I'm a bit more sure about. There are some clues that point to him (although as we saw with Emp, this isn't the most reliable method.) Also I've just found Ace to be very unhelpful to the town for the most part this game. His campaign was basically "lol nubs you guys vote for me kk?", and he spent alot of time defending himself from L and others. Finally the election, Ace switched his vote from redtooth and then back again in the last minutes of the election. (he did give an explanation, but i'm not completely satisfied) I think that redtooth and Ace are part of the same mafia family, and that redtooth defended ace by mistake, and then started accusing him so he wouldn't look suspicious. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously. How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard. | ||
|
Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:18 Ace wrote: Listen, for the last time my vote isn't suspicious. I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously. How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard. I voted for Dr.h, thinking that redtooth would be a bad candidate.... I'll admit that there are others that voted for redtooth that look suspicious, but I hadn't suspected them previously. (meeple comes to mind) | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:18 Ace wrote: Listen, for the last time my vote isn't suspicious. I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously. How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard. Oh, don't worry, they're being looked at too, but you so are you. I'm not suspicious despite admitting that vote switching is suspicious. The amount of double talk you vomit out on a per post basis is staggering. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
they see me rollin, they hatin | ||
|
Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:27 Ace wrote: ^_^ they see me rollin, they hatin patrollin' dey tryin catch me ridin dirteh...? | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
meeple
Canada10211 Posts
| ||
|
Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
- Bill Murray and DoctorHelvetica keep posting away like there's no tomorrow. On the plus side, some of DoctorHelvetica's posts have been pretty helpful. I especially liked the one post + Show Spoiler [the post in question] + On February 15 2010 07:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I stopped at page 24, I'm a bit exhausted. Here is my post so far: Argument Compilation Anything listed in red is an objectively untrue statement or something I find completely ridiculous. I didn't list a lot of redundant arguments for the sake of time, but I got mostly everything. I've changed my mind a bit after going back and really scrutinizing every post. I suggest everyone do the same, you'd be surprised what bad conclusions you may have come to because you weren't really thinking. I blame my lack of focus yesterday due to packing up my room and playing video games while half-assedly browsing the mafia thread, but from now on I'm on full alert ;o I will post another update to this when I feel it's relevant. KEEP IN MIND THAT I DID NOT COMPILE ARGUMENTS FROM PAGE 24 OR BEYOND BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler + Argues that people should vote him for mayor because he is a strong player who can guide the town. I don't need to offer a strategy for the town to be mayor. l10f has done nothing to get people to vote for him, anyone who votes for him is suspicious. Don't use previous games to justify actions in this one. If L is mafia he wants Ace dead because Ace is another mafia or a strong townie. Ver + Show Spoiler + Discussing clues too much on the first day helps the mafia, Day 1 clues are very vague and shouldn't be taken seriously until later. Posting behavior isn't very easy to lynch people off of unless they make bad mistakes. We need to have a plan for the elected/blue roles and gather as much information as possible. Don't hide your thoughts. Post whatever, the more active people are the harder it is for mafia to hide. Instead of making immediate accusations based on clues, build clue profiles that grow stronger over time. Primary suspect is BloodyC0bbler due to a change in posting behavior. L + Show Spoiler + Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around. The clues very clearly point toward Ace as being mafia. Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him. We can't afford to waste any lynches. Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town. Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues. Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent" The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't. Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here. There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families. The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch. It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game. Don't make useless posts. People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it. Town can't waste time due to KP disparity. Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues. Mafia might have several good/veteran players. People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them. If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too. Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1. I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion. I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead. Zato-1 + Show Spoiler + The Horsemen are on a different team from the torch thrower, the psychopath is on a different team from the angel. There may come a time when we may need to help one mafia family survive over another. The clue connection to Ace is strong, but perhaps not strong enough. Ace needs to argue against the clues, not the people analyzing them. Our job as town is to direct the mafia into killing eachother. It seems redtooth has an ulterior motive for defending Ace. laaan + Show Spoiler + Clues promote discussion which helps the town. There is a possibility that BloodyCobbler's profile fits the clues. Town should focus on keeping good players alive while the mafia kill eachother. Mafia will want the pardoner role. l10f + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't point fingers until later days. If I am elected, I will lynch someone who was previously mafia. Chezinu is mafia and I will lynch him if I'm mayor. DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler + Let's not make accusations based on clues until later. Worry about the mayor lynch. Agrees with Ver that clue profiling will be very helpful. Don't lynch Day 1 based on clues, they're useful later. BloodyCobbler should be lynched because the accusations on him are based on posting behavior and inconsistency. Use clues to help DT's and the town in the late-game. Malongo + Show Spoiler + We need a protected DT. Disagrees with Ver, even a wrong or fake analysis can help us. l10f should be mayor because he claimed blue l10f never roleclaimed a blue role Caller, L, and BC are mafia Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere. L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town. BC: Already spotted by ver. meeple + Show Spoiler + Clues will be very important here. The accusation on BloodyCobbler is too weak to lynch him. Town should focus on surviving and hunting mafia Mystlord + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't lynch on clues before Day 3. Clues are mostly a vehicle for potentially incriminating discussion. Don't lynch Chezinu Day 1 arbitrarily. We need a mayor who is uninvolved in this drama. Using information from past games isn't helpful. Caller + Show Spoiler + BloodyCobbler will be such a helpful townie that he's a poor choice for a Day 1 lynch. Don't lynch strong players without good reason. d3_crescentia + Show Spoiler + Don't lynch strong players without good reason. Clues need to be strong in this game, we shouldn't ignore Day 1 clues because there are so many mafia. We need to keep in mind how the dynamic shifts due to there being 2 mafia. Abenson + Show Spoiler + Lynching someone based on posts hurts on the first day. Focus on the elections Ace + Show Spoiler + Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later. I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia) Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations. Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia. Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what. Clues are subjective, not objective. Never rely on clues. I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone. Clues are useful only when processed through DT's. I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly. I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death. Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother. L is trying to turn the town against me. Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town. L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red. Redtooth + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clue analysis is useless. Don't post distracting things. Ace is right. Clue analysis is the last thing we need right now. The winning mayor should lynch a veteran mayor candidate. BloodyCobbler is suspicious. Mafia will have one person running for mayor at least. The clues pointing toward Ace are a stretch. We will never have a good Day 1 analysis. Incognito wouldn't make obvious clues point to Ace, even if Ace was mafia. Ace plays aggressive whether he is mafia or town, attacking his argument style is useless. An alliance between mafia will be terrible for the town. I agree that we will probably never see 2 sets of clues on 1 mafia. If Ace was mafia, incognito wants him alive. Ace is innocent because the clues point to him. There have been no mafia accusations between L and Ace up until now. -Untrue. L directly said "I think you're red" to Ace before this post, Ace also implied Zato/L were mafia in his first post although he didn't directly accuse them L is upset about the last game in which he was mafia which is why he wants Ace dead. Ace isn't necessarily innocent, the clues just don't point to him. Clue analysis on day 1 is trash. Dozko + Show Spoiler + Disagrees with Ace: Behavioral analysis is much more subjective than clues. All we have are Day 1 clues, we shouldn't ignore them. Chezinu + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clues are good to start discussion. Use clues to accuse people even if you don't really suspect them, then analyze their reaction. I should be mayor because I am untrustworthy. There is no such thing as a wasted post. Don't kill me. What people say in public isn't necessarily what they actually think. Hobbes + Show Spoiler + By lynching active posters with clues pointing toward them, we gain a lot of helpful information. It isn't a bad idea to lynch Ace. Just because a player is good doesn't mean they are sacrosanct. The bolded spoilers are very important as they will shine a lot of light on the argument between Ace/L/Redtooth. After reading through the thread more closely, I believe clue analysis is a lot more important than I first though. The clues are much stronger and L's point about clue profiling being mostly useless because of the large number of mafia is a very good one. L has been consistent and well-spoken in his arguments. Ace/Redtooth have been a bit inconsistent and too personal. Saying things like "L is obviously upset about this previous game" doesn't help anything and is just worthless speculation that distracts from the real argument. Ace's refusal to provide an alternative fit cannot be ignored. L did imply that Ace was butthurt about a previous game and I do hold that against him, unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so (such as trying to provoke a specific reaction) Read through this and make what you will of it! Keep in mind newer arguments (Page 24 onward) aren't posted here. - Much like Bill Murray, Ace has made no contributions whatsoever. L made a note of this at some point- Ace has just been pointing out why anyone who suspects him must be a half-wit, and has otherwise been making pointless witty remarks. This makes me think he is, in fact, mafia. Not based upon clue analysis like at the start of the game, but based on behavioral analysis. If he's running for mayor and posting a lot, why would he just post a steaming pile of shit all game long? - I've warned twice of the people who are lurking. I'll do it again. Yes, there are probably a few mafia among high-profile posters. There are two people among them who I believe are NOT mafia at this point- L and redtooth. L because he's been the single most powerful voice of reason so far and has provided the Town with leadership that might actually get us somewhere. redtooth, because of the post he made when he announced he would vote for L. At any rate, the important part right now is: It's night time. I said at one point that mafia are the men of action, the Town can only hope to direct their guns at one another instead of having them shoot randomly. Well, it's that time folks. If you want to do the Town a real service, post the names of those you think are mafia, and why you think that. It's in our best interest to help the mafia families to get to know one another right now. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
Maybe if you people just let me be instead of calling me out on ridiculous "arguments" we wouldn't be having this problem? L has been far from reasonable and I've already showed how. But keep skipping my posts and saying I'm not contributing when clearly I have been. | ||
|
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
| ||
|
Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:44 Ace wrote: *yawn* Maybe if you people just let me be instead of calling me out on ridiculous "arguments" we wouldn't be having this problem? L has been far from reasonable and I've already showed how. But keep skipping my posts and saying I'm not contributing when clearly I have been. I've been reading your posts, every single one. How about instead of posting to dismiss yet another person's arguments, you come up with something helpful for the town instead? | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
They see me rollin! | ||
|
Vivi57
United States6599 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:49 Ace wrote: OMGUS i see what you did there | ||
|
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
Even though I voted for L, I'm beginning to think that the chances are extremely high. Basically, in this Gambino vs. Sumiyoshi vs. Townies game, it looks to me like the chances that a mafia mayor/pardoner is elected are extremely high. Why? The Gambino team has unity. The Sumiyoshi team has unity. The rest of us townies are in complete utter chaos. It would be so much easier for both teams to put up a candidate and get said candidate elected when they are acting in unity, as a coherent team operating under the same will and the same goals. On the under hand, us townies are acting individually; as a scattered, broken community, we each base our votes on which we THINK seems the most sincere.. whose rhetoric best persuades us. Ergo, it seems to me like it would be exceedingly easy for the mafia to get one of their own elected, ESPECIALLY given the total tally/vote count. Which is: redtooth: 10. L: 9. Each mafia team is already 10 people. With such low vote counts, a mafia team could single-handedly win their candidate a mayoral spot by their own members' votes alone, without any of the townies help at all. But of course the mafia teams would know better than to fully throw their weight behind their candidate of choice, as it would be extremely obvious -- both to the town and to the opposing mafia team - if voila! all of a sudden 10 people end up voting for one particular candidate. But at the same time they're not all going to sit back and let the elections past without their own say. Thus what i am trying to say is that maybe it is worthwhile to look at the mayoral candidates and voters. One question I had was: for those who are running for mayor, why would they vote for another candidate? Have any of you guys seen the movie Election? + Show Spoiler + Candidate #1 running for class president votes for herself. Candidate #2, deciding not to be egotistical, votes for candidate #1. Candidate #1 wins by one vote and wins the election. Given, this is a shallow interpretation, so I've tried to evaluate plausible reasons why one candidate would vote for another. Candidate #1 is MAFIA - Candidate #1 votes for candidate #2 because they are both on the same mafia team. Therefore, they have the same end goal --> get someone on their team to be mayor/pardoner, regardless of whether it is #1 or #2. Of course one being mayor one being pardoner is their most ideal situation. - Candidate #1 knows that his mafia members will swing votes his way; therefore, his vote is irrelevant. Votes for candidate #2 so he looks like he is looking out for the general will. Candidate #1 is TOWNIE - Candidate #1 votes for candidate #2 because candidate #1 wants a good pardoner by his side. However, he must assume that at least 2-4 of the other candidates running against him are from mafia families! Therefore, voting for another candidate, especially if you are a townie, is taking a great leap of faith imo. - Candidate #1 distrusts who is in line to be his pardoner/mayor. Therefore votes for candidate #2 who he thinks is most trustworthy. What seems suspicious to me is redtooth's voting. He voted for L. Yet there were many times during voting when they were tied or nearly tied (7:8), (9: 9)... Why the hell was he voting for L when doing so jeopardized his own chances of winning? Maybe he and L are on the same team. Maybe he knew he had voters in reserve (mafia members who were abstaining) who would last-minute vote for him if needed to, and therefore his vote wouldn't matter? Maybe role declaration was a ploy/an excuse so that when votes swung his way in the last minute of voting, it wouldn't seem like mafia members coming out of hiding, but innocent townies trying to protect a medic. Thoughts? | ||
|
madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:36 Zato-1 wrote: Yes, there are probably a few mafia among high-profile posters. There are two people among them who I believe are NOT mafia at this point- L and redtooth. L because he's been the single most powerful voice of reason so far and has provided the Town with leadership that might actually get us somewhere. redtooth, because of the post he made when he announced he would vote for L. At any rate, the important part right now is: It's night time. I said at one point that mafia are the men of action, the Town can only hope to direct their guns at one another instead of having them shoot randomly. Well, it's that time folks. If you want to do the Town a real service, post the names of those you think are mafia, and why you think that. It's in our best interest to help the mafia families to get to know one another right now. Yes, because... On February 15 2010 14:43 redtooth wrote: AND IF YOU THINK I AM TOWN ALIGNED YOU SHOULD OBVIOUSLY VOTE ME MAYOR. seriously you are electing citizen literally solely on the fact that "okay he was good in last game". he has said nothing this game. he has done nothing to show his town-alignment. why would you risk that? GUYS USE YOUR HEADS! L is pretty safe too. as a matter of fact i'm heading to the voting thread right now to vote L. ...is so convincing. Unless you were referring to a different post? If so, quote it for me please. | ||
|
Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
FOR MAFIA: Town (mafia do not hit): Caller (good albeit rare contributions, doubt there is red here) Dr.H (he has been posting alot, but in my opinion they've been good quality, I don't see why everyone is attacking him all the time) Chezinu (call me stupid, but I actually think he's the DT, he only roleclaimed in the thread until after I talked to him via pm) Mafia (HIT THEM HARD)- Redtooth (see my post above, although you can't hit him because he got elected....) Ace (see my post above) decafchicken- (he's lurking just like he did last game when he was godfather, also voted for redtooth with little reason) Suspicious people (possible hit): Meeple (election switching votes) d3_cresentia (I felt her posts were much higher quality last game when town, also ninja voted for redtooth) BC (points brought up previously about posting behavior) retards- BM (if he isn't mafia, I don't know what to say) redtooth (even if you are medic, roleclaiming right before the election was over was a horrible move) ????????????- L (i have no clue about you) Ver DT guide to checking people- Avoid role checking the vets with the most posts (Ace, Ver) because these guys have high chances of being godfathers, instead try to check the more active but less Vet players. I also reccomend checking Chezinu so we can know whether he is actually a DT or not, or checking other people on the town list. Medics guide to protecting people- I would recommend protecting someone on the green list, and avoid people who might be mafia, use that thing in between your ears, and DONT roleclaim. Keep your role to yourself, you are in danger of being hit by mafia, and we will need you later in the game for sure, so don't screw up. Vigi's save your kills for later nights | ||
| ||
