|
On January 20 2010 12:52 no_re wrote:Well hi everyone, my first mafia game, not entirely sure how it works so bare with me if Im doing it wrong, however relating to the "clues" posted everyday here is what I got from the above entry. My first thought when dissecting the post was this rather obvious quote: A quick attack? Well with a player named QuickStriker in the game this looks like a kind of obvious clue. Also he was the first to respond to the first Sheriff Candidacy anouncement of Fulgrim, drawing attention to himself being "amused" by Fulgrim's "I'm not a mafia" comment. This intruiged me.
I think that analysis overall was extremely good, from reading up on some earlier Mafia games it seems that the host often likes the come up with elaborate or entertaining deaths. This in itself makes the " With a quick attack " stand out far more in my eyes, and somewhat exonerates the other as possibly just being a whimsical choice by the host.
In all honesty this by itself is enough to make me fairly suspicious and Quickstriker I am still more suspicious when I see some of what you have typed. In particular your reaction to no_re's non-serious accusation where you are essentially saying we must "hold off any action untill the DT comes forward and leads us through the valley of death and into the promised land" - I paraphrased,
This however, as far as I can tell is an exceptionally bad strategy, the point of electing a mayor or sherrif is someone who seems active, discerning and importantly decisive, and your suggestion of sit and wait reeks to me on manipulation at an early stage.
p.s. am i doin it rite?[/QUOTE]
|
Won't edit but i was initially going to quote all of no_re's post and the "p.s. am i doin it rite? [/QUOTE] managed to slip its way into my post ^^
|
Non related to the above, but just a thought. I have been thinking about a working hypothesis that the people more likely to have the arguably more interesting roles on the Townie side, as well as more likely to be Mafia might be people with high post counts and who are well known in the community (and are not well known for being idiots)
Was thinking this as I would presume a game can be doomed from the start if there is an incompetant Mafia team and so to try to avoid this roles could be influenced, however small, in this way.
This is just complete conjecture and a thought that i decided to share, but if Bloody could explain if the roles are allotted on a completely random basis or if there is some choice in the matter I would be interested to know 
|
Also I put myself forward to run for election. Considered not doing as I have a survival instinct and don't want to have too much attention drawn to myself at an early stage but in all honesty I think i would be a good choice for either of the roles.
|
Hi everybody, I'm glad to be in this game of TL-Mafia. Some thoughts/analysis...
One night in a town of Liquiville, there came a strange event.
An event of history and would lead many people to bewilderment.
The sheriff Ace however was on the case.
Journeying to the docks by the beach, he answered the cries of a persons shriek.
What he found however, was a trail of blood. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide.
Rushing to the persons aid, he turned the body and knew it was grave.
A quick check of the pulse, and he knew it was done, L would fail to see the coming sun.
Picking up the body, he turned to make his way back to town, and failed to see the figure step behind him. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground.
His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done.
Across town in his mayoral office, vx70GTOJudgexv sat at his desk. He was busy signing new laws for the town when he heard a crash outside his door. Getting up and exiting into the hall, he began to search for the sound. As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor.
When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race. It was here that the town began to be reshaped.
The lines that are bolded are written in prose. The lines that are not make some attempt to rhyme. I feel that the prose lines contain the clues, though it could be the other way around. For the most part, I agree with no_re's preliminary judgments - the broken flower vase, the "quick attack" - though I think that we're going to need more analysis overall to figure things out. Also, there's that bit about the cave by the shore... more in a later post.
Truthfully, though, I think we'll end up learning a lot more about people once elections are underway.
|
Based on his contribution so far, I'm going to second XeliN in his bid for nomination. It's important that we have someone active in the thread as mayor or sherrif, and also good to have someone providing reasoning behind thier decisions, whether they be good or bad.
|
And what's general day 1 voting etiquette? Do we wait to last minute, because it seems as though it's pretty much going to be a wild guess.
|
After looking through all the profiles, the only one that seems to be of remote interest is haster27's map of South Korea which could be linked to the shore in a rather convoluted way.
Also, I left this part unbolded:
When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race. It was here that the town began to be reshaped.
As they aren't sentences written in rhyme.
We should probably do clue checks on whatever we have on the first night. The flower vase is a pretty outstanding clue as it stands. I'd like to see, though, what the bodies themselves can tell us - Judge's death is directly related to a rush of air.
On January 20 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote:
Also I put myself forward to run for election. Considered not doing as I have a survival instinct and don't want to have too much attention drawn to myself at an early stage but in all honesty I think i would be a good choice for either of the roles.
You do realize that if you're voted Mayor/Sheriff you'll be immune to any hits while your bodyguards are alive? Seems that if you have a survival instinct it would be the best way to live the longest... the problem is just in convincing other people to vote for you.
|
On January 20 2010 20:58 RoyW wrote:
And what's general day 1 voting etiquette? Do we wait to last minute, because it seems as though it's pretty much going to be a wild guess.
Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss.
I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try.
|
On January 20 2010 21:19 d3_crescentia wrote:
After looking through all the profiles, the only one that seems to be of remote interest is haster27's map of South Korea which could be linked to the shore in a rather convoluted way.
And by this I mean his profile. Still a long-shot by any means; clue checks would be a better thing to think about.
|
Sure i am aware of that xD, but im also concious that it is certainly going to be an ambition of the mafia in general to have their members run in the election race and so anyone who puts themselves forward is simply by that action more suspicious that one who doesn't. (this is arguable but certainly not an illogical point to make).
So thats what i meant by survival instinct as the town could be more suspicious of me and the mafia, knowing i am not one of them, could ifind it easier to persuade others to vote lynch,
|
Updated profile as it was quite barren and so kinda difficult in the clue department, hopefully all the others mentioned as having no info to go on for clues will do the same.
|
On January 20 2010 22:31 XeliN wrote:
Updated profile as it was quite barren and so kinda difficult in the clue department, hopefully all the others mentioned as having no info to go on for clues will do the same.
Profile edits are illegal after the game's started. =/
|
My profile had literally nothing in it, a mod can confirm i thought its something i should have done. If I really have committed a most awaful of crimes then hopefully bloody will tell me and I will edit it back to blank with sincere apologies
|
i rlly want to edit "awaful" its making me blush with shame 
|
I am announcing my bid for election.
We need someone who's rational, non-inflammatory and persuasive enough to be an elected official. We also need someone that is willing to spend the time not only listening to what others have to say, but also critically developing their own reasoning outside of what is said in the thread.
I am active, logical and obsessive enough to get to the bottom of this.
|
Hey guys. Just wanted to say I'm a bit busy today and tomorrow so I probably wont contribute much until tomorrow evening, but as i understand that will be in before the voting ends at least.
And please note, while clue analysis can be helpful it is very likely that it will be useless until we have more dayposts to draw from to find repeating themes and such. For now it's probably better to look at what people are writing, their reasoning, and try to figure out the motivation behind it..
Also for people running for office, it would be nice if you describe why you are running, what actions you plan to take and why.
|
Also to carry on the spirit of openess, assuming a player cannot vote for himself for candidate, I will be voting for Fulgrim (as of now, more people could come forward and I might change my mind) I liked his post and also Quickstriker immediately questionined him str8 after the post. The reason this has influence on my descision is because I will say plainly I am exceptionally suspicious of Quickstriker at this moment and so going with a hypothesis that Quickstriker is Mafia, it makes Fulgrim very unlikely to be mafia as they would hardly criticise their own
This is simply a hypothesis, I am not claiming quickstriker to be mafia I am however very suspicious of him at the moment and look forward to him posting more.
|
On January 20 2010 23:24 XeliN wrote:
Also to carry on the spirit of openess, assuming a player cannot vote for himself for candidate, I will be voting for Fulgrim (as of now, more people could come forward and I might change my mind) I liked his post and also Quickstriker immediately questionined him str8 after the post. The reason this has influence on my descision is because I will say plainly I am exceptionally suspicious of Quickstriker at this moment and so going with a hypothesis that Quickstriker is Mafia, it makes Fulgrim very unlikely to be mafia as they would hardly criticise their own
This is simply a hypothesis, I am not claiming quickstriker to be mafia I am however very suspicious of him at the moment and look forward to him posting more.
Yeah, players can't vote for themselves. Votes should go in the vote thread, though.
|
Alright day 1, here's my take on the situation: [BTW i've spoilered these since they turned out quite long]
Firstly the method of picking the sheriff and mayor. + Show Spoiler +We have two real options here: one is to go for a random vote i.e. every person draws a random number from 1 to 34 and then another from the remainder and those are the votes. The second option is to support the candidatures of people who have expressed desire to be those roles.
As far as the first method goes one can calculate that the probability of at least one from the sheriff or mayor being mafia is 0,374 or 37% basically. So the only reason we should go for the second choosing method is if we believe we can achieve a lower probability by it.
Why I dont believe this is possible: the only reason a person will nominate himself is if that person has an incentive. These can be of two kinds: good or bad. Its trivial to see why bad incentives harm our chances (ie. the person is mafia). The good incentives can also be harmful mainly because such a person desires the role for:
a) "protection" . This will adversely affect his playstile because he now does not have to put that much effort in argumentation. This line of thought is similar to the economics research done, whereby an increase in cycling helmets' safety actually lead to an increase in cycling related injuries.
b) because " he wants to lead the town". Its a democracy and relying too much on the individual opinion of some person who happens to be elected for a responsible position, without any real arguments, will skew the towns analysis and judgment. Hence such positions should only be used to utilize their special "abilities" and not to add any analytical weighting.
Therefore I propose the random pick method for our sheriff and mayor. The probability is reasonable and ensures we do not succumb to any adverse selection issues.
Secondly no_re's fine analysis of the connection to Quick(Attack)Striker and his subsequent replies make me feel a bit suspicious. Let me put some additional stuff forward for consideration:
Before no_re posted his analysis placing some suspicion on QuickStriker, he had made a total of 9 posts in the thread. Of those only 2 are edited. i.e. 2/9. However once the analysis was posted all of his subsequent posts, until some other member pointed this out to him, are edited, and one is edited more than once. Couple this with the fact that he is an old TL member, with around 1500 posts, and so should be familiar that Tl.net and other forums frown on post editing. Therefore his edited posts after the analysis by no_re could hint that he got a bit uneasy. Its hard to tell whether he got uneasy because he's mafia or because he's nervous for being called out so early, but the narration seems to point to the former.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
