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On January 20 2010 21:23 d3_crescentia wrote:
Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss.
I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try.
I've just seen this but is it not strange how d3_crescentia posts that he does not like to vote for people who simply say they'll try hard, but afterwards posts his own candidature where he says basically the same thing he slated a few posts ago, except its sugar coated with some pointless characteristics listing, which can by no means be verified.
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Well what a great day to start. If you really feel I'm the mafia, then very well, feel that way. It's not like this is the first time people started accusing me as mafia due to 2 words in the description and I was actually a townie. But note this, if you fail to get a kill correctly and end up killing an innocent townie who was actually trying to help and be the most active, I can already see the downfall of this game. Of course it's far worse if you killed someone who actually had a significant role within the town, such as DT or a medic, though I'm not giving myself away at the moment. I don't mind dying from the get-go to prove everyone's illogical point that they think they are right about themselves but yet they only end up very wrong; because I can and will foresee that.
On a second note, I still stand by my initial comment of waiting 2-3 days after the mayor/sheriff have been started in order to receive more clues and link up the mafia with the men they will kill then. Each day, 3 people will die due to the fact that they have 3 Kill Point at the moment, and if we can at least wait 2 days, there will be 6 kills, but 6 clues to figure out. We can't really waste votes on someone who we aren't so sure yet until we can confirm at least 90% that it is certain this and that person is mafia. That's why it's important that all the townies must come together and work as a team, especially the ones who have roles like Detective, medic, etc.
My suggestion is that for the detective, use the clue check and see if "no_re"s post was correct and on the mark or not. Since he did mention 2 possible leads, the OP can tell the detective that it is either correct that the assumptions and leads are in a right direction or not. But regardless of the response, they must also be careful not to be caught by the mafia and realized that they are DTs or the mafia will start targeting them next turn....
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On January 20 2010 23:50 dozko wrote:Alright day 1, here's my take on the situation: [BTW i've spoilered these since they turned out quite long] Firstly the method of picking the sheriff and mayor. + Show Spoiler +We have two real options here: one is to go for a random vote i.e. every person draws a random number from 1 to 34 and then another from the remainder and those are the votes. The second option is to support the candidatures of people who have expressed desire to be those roles.
As far as the first method goes one can calculate that the probability of at least one from the sheriff or mayor being mafia is 0,374 or 37% basically. So the only reason we should go for the second choosing method is if we believe we can achieve a lower probability by it.
Why I dont believe this is possible: the only reason a person will nominate himself is if that person has an incentive. These can be of two kinds: good or bad. Its trivial to see why bad incentives harm our chances (ie. the person is mafia). The good incentives can also be harmful mainly because such a person desires the role for:
a) "protection" . This will adversely affect his playstile because he now does not have to put that much effort in argumentation. This line of thought is similar to the economics research done, whereby an increase in cycling helmets' safety actually lead to an increase in cycling related injuries.
b) because " he wants to lead the town". Its a democracy and relying too much on the individual opinion of some person who happens to be elected for a responsible position, without any real arguments, will skew the towns analysis and judgment. Hence such positions should only be used to utilize their special "abilities" and not to add any analytical weighting.
Therefore I propose the random pick method for our sheriff and mayor. The probability is reasonable and ensures we do not succumb to any adverse selection issues. Secondly no_re's fine analysis of the connection to Quick(Attack)Striker and his subsequent replies make me feel a bit suspicious. Let me put some additional stuff forward for consideration: Before no_re posted his analysis placing some suspicion on QuickStriker, he had made a total of 9 posts in the thread. Of those only 2 are edited. i.e. 2/9. However once the analysis was posted all of his subsequent posts, until some other member pointed this out to him, are edited, and one is edited more than once. Couple this with the fact that he is an old TL member, with around 1500 posts, and so should be familiar that Tl.net and other forums frown on post editing. Therefore his edited posts after the analysis by no_re could hint that he got a bit uneasy. Its hard to tell whether he got uneasy because he's mafia or because he's nervous for being called out so early, but the narration seems to point to the former.
Just to comment on my editing, I honestly didn't know editing is wrong after someone pointed me out. As you see, each of my edit tells what i have edited as I never changed my comment or view where it's stating something else. My style of editing has always been like that and you can check throughout TL where I post and edit stuff. I always make that *edit* mark as it is my habit to do so. Seriously guys, let's be real here, if you really think I'm mafia, then kill me first and let's take it from there. I'm not really that much interested in this game since if I was, I would have done a whole lot more. But then again, you would be killing the most active person in this game right now judging how I was able to contribute more than everyone with what we should and what shouldn't be doing. But whatever.
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What I do like at the moment is after looking through the names of the posters after I slept to now, most of them are the ones who have absolutely NOTHING on their profile.... Xelin also admitted he had edited his profile after I made that list so if I didn't make such a list, no one would have known that he originally didn't had anything on a profile. Besides, as the rules and OP says, it's illegal to edit your profile where that automatically considers as "cheating" as in per rules. I just want to leave that for food for thought as I take a shower.
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Dzoko your reasoning is fine and tbh it does make certain sense going with a random selection purely to avoid being duped and led into a situation where mafia are in important roles. My main quibble with it is that this game is meant to be a strategical analysis kind of game and it doesn't really seem in the spirit of things to emphasise randomness in selecting the people who get voted in. That said i wouldn't really be against it, just personally I would be more inclined to go with reasoning and vote for someone i feel would both suit the role and that i am not suspicious of.
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On January 20 2010 23:54 dozko wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 21:23 d3_crescentia wrote:
Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss.
I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try. I've just seen this but is it not strange how d3_crescentia posts that he does not like to vote for people who simply say they'll try hard, but afterwards posts his own candidature where he says basically the same thing he slated a few posts ago, except its sugar coated with some pointless characteristics listing, which can by no means be verified.
I like to shower myself with compliments. If you took offense to that, then I apologize.
Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in.
I do think, though that he has the right idea - we should investigate and dissect whatever clues we have right now for the DTs to check at night. In one of my earlier posts I recommended checking the bodies, especially since there weren't two but THREE deaths. We don't know how the first person died, and that in itself might be a clue.
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On January 21 2010 00:27 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 23:54 dozko wrote:On January 20 2010 21:23 d3_crescentia wrote:
Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss.
I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try. I've just seen this but is it not strange how d3_crescentia posts that he does not like to vote for people who simply say they'll try hard, but afterwards posts his own candidature where he says basically the same thing he slated a few posts ago, except its sugar coated with some pointless characteristics listing, which can by no means be verified. I like to shower myself with compliments. If you took offense to that, then I apologize. Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in. I do think, though that he has the right idea - we should investigate and dissect whatever clues we have right now for the DTs to check at night. In one of my earlier posts I recommended checking the bodies, especially since there weren't two but THREE deaths. We don't know how the first person died, and that in itself might be a clue.
Nah man I did not, dont get too defensive, I was merely posting my thoughts, with the idea to get more people commenting. Of course we do not have nearly enough information right now to make any 100% correct decisions but every theory, no matter how accurate still generates some sort of a discussion which helps the town have more to base decisions on.
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On January 21 2010 00:27 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 23:54 dozko wrote:On January 20 2010 21:23 d3_crescentia wrote:
Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss.
I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try. I've just seen this but is it not strange how d3_crescentia posts that he does not like to vote for people who simply say they'll try hard, but afterwards posts his own candidature where he says basically the same thing he slated a few posts ago, except its sugar coated with some pointless characteristics listing, which can by no means be verified. I like to shower myself with compliments. If you took offense to that, then I apologize. Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in. I do think, though that he has the right idea - we should investigate and dissect whatever clues we have right now for the DTs to check at night. In one of my earlier posts I recommended checking the bodies, especially since there weren't two but THREE deaths. We don't know how the first person died, and that in itself might be a clue.
Hmm... that last part you said is really getting to me right now... there is barely any description of how the first guy had died.... and that being a clue itself can also refer to someone who has a blank empty profile! Of course that is a wild guess and it's still too vague and early to assume that... Though if we think about it, it is possible that out of the 12 names I mentioned earlier who has a complete empty profile, one of them can be mafia.....
The DT can only check one person's clues rather than a list of clues made by more than one person, so what we need right now to maximize DT's ability is to have a single person to compile all the clues into one post and stating that it was based on his thinking which the DT can take advantage of that and exploit it where he can use his ability on that single post to the OP in which the OP has NO CHOICE but to give its answer.... that is one method I would go for to further help the DT..
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Checking up on people with large postcounts for veterancy using the search feature...
~OpZ~ - TL Mafia II, III
JoxxOr - TL Mafia II, Ace's Mafia World
decafchicken - TL Mafia II, III
l10f - Pyrry's Mafia Game
Fishball - a lot of them (II, III, V, VII, and more)
QuickStriker - TL Mafia VII
I know there are plenty of people who have played mafia with relatively smaller postcounts. I'll come up with those as soon as I feel up searching through 29 more names.
At any rate, these are people with posting histories that we can maybe sort of guess about their posting history/behaviors.
Also... a discrepancy (for the lulz, I'm guessing):
+ Show Spoiler +On January 20 2010 04:52 decafchicken wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 04:48 Ace wrote:
I think this game is almost all new players, or at least 75% are. The game you linked was quite complex but yea you'll get the gist of Mafia reading that.
The wikipedia article is also a great source of basic information. i've never played before! Oh decaf, you... person.
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On January 21 2010 00:55 d3_crescentia wrote:Checking up on people with large postcounts for veterancy using the search feature... ~OpZ~ - TL Mafia II, III JoxxOr - TL Mafia II, Ace's Mafia World decafchicken - TL Mafia II, III l10f - Pyrry's Mafia Game Fishball - a lot of them (II, III, V, VII, and more) QuickStriker - TL Mafia VII I know there are plenty of people who have played mafia with relatively smaller postcounts. I'll come up with those as soon as I feel up searching through 29 more names. At any rate, these are people with posting histories that we can maybe sort of guess about their posting history/behaviors. Also... a discrepancy (for the lulz, I'm guessing): + Show Spoiler +On January 20 2010 04:52 decafchicken wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2010 04:48 Ace wrote:
I think this game is almost all new players, or at least 75% are. The game you linked was quite complex but yea you'll get the gist of Mafia reading that.
The wikipedia article is also a great source of basic information. i've never played before! Oh decaf, you... person.
Thanks for pointing those facts out, it is definitely helpful. But I do realize that you didn't make a history of mafia games yourself as you seem to recognize me from previous mafia game I played which based on your list is Mafia VII, which seems probably correct.
And that was funny how you pointed out about decaf... lol!
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I just used the search feature. It may be missing information. And, as I've said, it's not a full list.
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On January 21 2010 00:27 d3_crescentia wrote:
Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in.
I know it's too soon, but it seems crazy that someone who is mafia could be that prominent in his posting. He has about 15% of posts in a 34 player game.
Mods, for future reference, can we ask for a current vote count at any stage?
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First day clues should NOT be used to lynch a person unless the day progresses, so that they correspond with the other day's clues. Moreover, I am really wary of the fact that two obvious clues pointing to single individual appeared within a single day. That is generally sign of the unintentional red herring.
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The fact that we don't have as much activeness from other townies or majority of people compared to the other game really sadden me. The ones who are in the mist of quietness and just sitting along the sidelines should all step up rather than being scared or not wanting to come out at all because they're lazy. This game contrast to the other mafia game going on right now is so far behind with pretty much everything. Perhaps it's just me that I think this way but that's what and how I see it right now....
On January 21 2010 02:06 haster27 wrote:
First day clues should NOT be used to lynch a person unless the day progresses, so that they correspond with the other day's clues. Moreover, I am really wary of the fact that two obvious clues pointing to single individual appeared within a single day. That is generally sign of the unintentional red herring.
3 things regarding the first day clues:
1. The 2 clues weren't pointing or directed at single individual, as they were usually directed to 2 different people as the OP or the TL mafia game works in a way each death leads to a clue to one different person.
2. I'm just sort of hyper and active in the beginning stages, especially right now when I'm on my winter break having absolutely nothing to do..... though I still don't get how that is how I am unintentional red herring when I am coming up being the most active person in this game right now wanting this game to move along much quicker and trying to lead this game into a positive direction.
3. There were 3 deaths, meaning 3 clues, which also means 3 different people, not 1.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
In games of Mafia, there are degrees of activity. These degrees of activity would persist no matter what roles people got, and since roles were randomly assigned, suggesting that 'Poster A' is mafia because he posts too much is ignoring the fact that 'Poster A' would've contributed significantly anyway, as they're experienced with games of mafia, and comfortable playing any role.
What instead is more important are deviations in posting patterns and word choice. These will lead us more surely to the mafia.
This not to say that anyone is or isn't mafia, it's simply a note of caution. We shouldn't go about lynching our most active and productive members, or else who's going to go about finding the clues?
The reason I announced my candidacy for sheriff/mayor is that I have the objectivity and patience to not consistently make ridiculous judgments.
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On January 21 2010 02:01 RoyW wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 00:27 d3_crescentia wrote:
Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in. I know it's too soon, but it seems crazy that someone who is mafia could be that prominent in his posting. He has about 15% of posts in a 34 player game. Mods, for future reference, can we ask for a current vote count at any stage?
I believe I have at least or around 50% of posts since the game started! Just pointing that out though I don't want to brag or anything. I just really want this game to start, move, and go on.... =/
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On January 21 2010 02:01 RoyW wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 00:27 d3_crescentia wrote:
Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in. I know it's too soon, but it seems crazy that someone who is mafia could be that prominent in his posting. He has about 15% of posts in a 34 player game.
Which is one of the reasons why I don't believe he's mafia despite what other people think. Also, our game has been relatively slow in comparison to the other one.
On January 21 2010 02:06 haster27 wrote:
First day clues should NOT be used to lynch a person unless the day progresses, so that they correspond with the other day's clues. Moreover, I am really wary of the fact that two obvious clues pointing to single individual appeared within a single day. That is generally sign of the unintentional red herring.
I don't really see two clues pointing to the same person, because I don't believe that there's anything concrete about our discussion of these clues except wild conjecture. no_re has given us the best (if not only) analysis of what he thinks the clues mean.
My opinion is that we should try and figure out what parts of the clues are the most suggestive and clue check those. There will be a lot more information to deal with once day two comes. The other problem is that we haven't seen much activity as of yet, and so it's hard to hold a discussion when there's only two-three isolated people participating at one time.
As for lynching... we should lynch whoever we reason out seems to be most likely mafia. We can't really do that without higher participation, though.
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On January 21 2010 02:15 tree.hugger wrote:
In games of Mafia, there are degrees of activity. These degrees of activity would persist no matter what roles people got, and since roles were randomly assigned, suggesting that 'Poster A' is mafia because he posts too much is ignoring the fact that 'Poster A' would've contributed significantly anyway, as they're experienced with games of mafia, and comfortable playing any role.
What instead is more important are deviations in posting patterns and word choice. These will lead us more surely to the mafia.
This not to say that anyone is or isn't mafia, it's simply a note of caution. We shouldn't go about lynching our most active and productive members, or else who's going to go about finding the clues?
The reason I announced my candidacy for sheriff/mayor is that I have the objectivity and patience to not consistently make ridiculous judgments.
I like the way you think.
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I was at the other mafia game and this post really got to me...
On January 21 2010 02:19 Bill Murray wrote:
789 my theory is not thrown out the window... it is correct
town wants player A lynched tonight
mayor lynches player B instead
Player B and mayor are either friends or mafia, and are going against the town's wishes.
We should then lynch the mayor, as he has 3 possible votes per voting window. Him saying "i vote for [NyC]Hobbes" = 3 votes. We can't have someone doing that and going against the wishes of the majority of the town.
i suppose the mayor could do this just on a whim, but would we want someone like that as the mayor even if they arent mafia?
It gives a good point regarding what sort of mayor we want..... it's some good food for thought to think about if we get a mayor and his first vote to kill would be someone who is mafia but went against the town decision.... and the whole if we want a mayor who goes against the town wishes... hmm...
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On January 21 2010 02:26 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 02:15 tree.hugger wrote:
In games of Mafia, there are degrees of activity. These degrees of activity would persist no matter what roles people got, and since roles were randomly assigned, suggesting that 'Poster A' is mafia because he posts too much is ignoring the fact that 'Poster A' would've contributed significantly anyway, as they're experienced with games of mafia, and comfortable playing any role.
What instead is more important are deviations in posting patterns and word choice. These will lead us more surely to the mafia.
This not to say that anyone is or isn't mafia, it's simply a note of caution. We shouldn't go about lynching our most active and productive members, or else who's going to go about finding the clues?
The reason I announced my candidacy for sheriff/mayor is that I have the objectivity and patience to not consistently make ridiculous judgments. I like the way you think.
I second that thought. Like I mentioned again and again, it's too early to assume anything who the mafia could be. The clues are a bit too vague compared to the other game if you take a chance to look at them....
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EPT
