Razzia of the Blizzsters - Page 18

A bit at random, I took the following high level TvZ bo7 from various periods of the game:

(1) MarineKing vs Nestea, GSL Open Season 2, November 2010;
(2) Mvp vs Nestea, Blizzcon [3 series united], October 2011;
(3) MarineKing vs DRG, MLG Spring Arena, April 2012;
(4) Mvp vs Life, Code S finals, October 2012;
(5) Bogus vs Soulkey, first HotS Code S finals, June 2013.

And I compared the average supply count of the Terran player at various points:



(Small mistake on the graphs, the Blizzcon 2011 is noted November instead of October.)

Despite the low sample size, we clearly visualize the evolution of openings and the movement towards “modern macro play”.

Note: even if “5 minutes” stands as our “point zero” here, don't think there is no hyper-development within the first 5 minutes of the game. Though dormant, the seed is fully here. It just so happens that the 2 rax of 2010 TvZ has been replaced with CC first into 1-1-1 or Reaper 3OC, which by force materialize the effect later. The consequences are best seen here:



And yet, on average, Zerg max less fast in Mvp vs Life (~18:10) than in MarineKing vs DRG (~14:15). What happened? Is time being de-contracted? Is hyper-development finally losing ground? Alas no: the phenomenon has become partially hidden. We are indeed only looking at raw supply, but we have no information about the quality of said supply. After the Queen patch, hyper-development actually became so violent that instead of maxing in 14 minutes on lings/banes/mutas—which Terran could stand—Zerg was now maxing in 15'45 on lings + broods/infests. (The drone barbecues coming from Mvp's Blue Flame openings did the rest to bend the curve.) The length of the curve increases, but its steepness too; it simply has to be converted into something else because of the protective barrier of the supply limit—whose raising would be an absolute disaster.

Past certain thresholds, investments in economy and technology become more interesting. (And actually forced!) This is why supply inflation in LotV is in fact an euphemism regarding the contraction of time between HotS and the current version of LotV. The extent of the phenomenon is best seen when comparing similar scenarii:

(1) Proxy rax attack vs 1b Roaches defence

If we compare what SuperNova owns at 5 SC2 minutes (~3'37 in LotV) with MarineKing's macro 2 rax on Steppes of War (lol), we see that SuperNova has much more despite (a) proxying further and (b) proxying harder (+1 rax). SuperNova's contain is stronger (4 bunkers to 2), yet he still starts his expand/transition (CC + dual gas) earlier. Thanks to the current LotV economy, at 5 minutes SuperNova has already 35% more resource value on the map than MarineKing. + Show Spoiler +

(2) 2b mutas into Roaches against mech

Comparing SuperNova vs bly (set 2) and GuMiho vs Solar. bly's build is less economical (3Q speed + faster Lair vs gasless 4Q); his macro is of course considerably inferior to Solar's one; he loses more in harassment, and still:



When Solar reaches 180 supply, on 63 drones, he has not yet completed +1 armor, he has no transition and only 3 bases. When bly reaches 180 supply (one minute later), on 59 drones, he has way more tech (Hive and 2/2 on the way, Hydra den, Burrow…) + 5 bases ready. Solar can only dream of such a transition.

Thus, on LotV, players would max faster, on higher technology, if they were “allowed” to do so. But players cannot “glide” over the development curve all the way through. Interrupting the cycles, some forces say “no”. Which are? The very game and the opponent. Look indeed at the number of times both players reached a high threshold of development in Bogus vs Soulkey:



What happened? Did we go back to the youth of WoL? Yes, in a way. Players can indeed orient the missile of hyper-development towards three kinds of entrances, according to the ETA triad (Economy; Technology; Army). To break your opponent's flow, you can invest everything in army; but since your opponent is riding the “ET” wave, you better succeed now or you'll lose the ensuing battle of curves. Enter: all-ins.





In approximatively one minute, an extremely deadly “timing attack” is prepared and launched. The steady flow from Bogus' infrastructure kicks in too late: Bogus is wiped.

But there's more. Here, the eruption is still partially minimized, because (1) Queens don't belong to the attack and (2) Soulkey also turned all his Zerglings into Banelings. Army value thus represents slightly more accurately the productive surge:



In the span of a single minute (actually, 30 seconds for most of the herd), Soulkey's offensive army value is multiplied by 8.65. The game is riddled with surges like that (generally on a lesser scale, of course), turning the arena into a powder keg. And people wonder why SC2 is an untameable creature!?!

+ Show Spoiler +

SC2 is a RTS suffering from autoimmune disease. Excessive contraction of time made the “RT” part grow cancerous, and it immediately started viciously attacking the “S” part, which was forced to retract under the assault:


If you have ever wondered why the frontier between timings and all-ins is sometimes so blurry in SC2 (particularly with the following characteristics), look no further: the culprit is, again, contraction of time. See Welcome to ZParcraft II for a few concrete applications in the context of the last major crisis of asymetric hyper-development.

Tons of pressure builds also died (or can't see the light) because hyper-development automatically made them become all-in… while of course they lack the strength of an all-in. Those builds thus face the ruthless following alternative: disparition or radicalization. Pressure disappears? The cursor moves towards passive macro. Pressure becomes more radical? Towards all-in. Spaghettification of strategy. + Show Spoiler +

Hyper-development is also what makes some people say that “players have become so greedy”. Though the formulation is simplistic (as with most of the common vulgate), the idea behind it is sound: it just so happens that what was once “greed” is now standard. See for instance “One Core to Rule Them All” in Welcome to ZParcraft II.

You have surely noticed the worrying appearance of invincibility in LotV. Invincible Roach/Ravager Warpgate, invincible Disruptors. Why? Because otherwise, hyper-development defends too easily. The torrent of resources allows the defender to produce more units and defensive structures, so tech-based aggression/harassment tools have to follow the movement and become much more powerful to have an impact. And since it is still not enough in many cases, enter the ultimate “anyway”: instantaneity, invincibility.

In order to preserve “activity,” the hydra of hyper-development forces the Blizzsters to repeatedly kill the defender's advantage, replaced with the puzzling concept of the attacker's advantage.

Enter: Medivac Boost; proxy Hellbats [Hellions turning into Hellbats at Armory tech]; semi-teleporting Tanks;
Enter: various bane busts; muta regen; Ravager busts; invincible Nydus;
Enter: Warpgate; Blink; Recall; invincible Disruptor + Warp Prism picking from massive range;
Enter: worker bowling.
Etc.

(Notice how many of those attacks are proxy attacks to recreate windows that hyper-development + the basic time barrier that is space would otherwise shut close.)

Violence calls for violence. Contraction of time is a drug. Speed in one domain has to be echoed by more speed in another domain. Hyper-mobility is the natural child of hyper-development; nonsense, the proud third generation. + Show Spoiler +

Now; let us consider the past, and our bright future.


+ Show Spoiler [material] +

It is actually harder to find a regular supply inflation in LotV's games with the 5-10-15 minutes system. One would probably have to refine to 5-10-12-14. Trades indeed don't occur randomly, and hyper-development further routinizes sequences. By the old 15 SC2 minutes benchmark, (1) probably more of the LotV games are already finished and (2) the “survivors” are already diving in the downwards spiral, particularly because of the decreased stock of minerals implemented by the SC2 crew (a very astute mechanic to obtain what they want). But the phenomenon is still visible at 5 and 10 minutes, though concealed/minimized by the ET substitution discussed above.

The second game between SuperNova vs bly is a good example of the insane rate of development in LotV: from 3 bases, Lair and 78 supply at 10 minutes to 5 bases, Vipers on the way and 200 supply at 15 minutes. All of this in 3 minutes 35 of real time. See “Spaghettification” for the inevitable consequences.

It is interesting to compare the relics of the first macro games in proto-WoL to the maturity of BW. In the MKP vs Nestea series, if we consider the only macro game which welcomed a third from the Terran, i. e. the Shattered Temple game (set2), we can draw the following comparison:



Not much difference, hmm? But we would again be fooled by the facial values. Just like the evolution of openings accelerated the average rate of development, we have to compare apples with apples. The benchmarks are roughly similar, except… the BW games were 1 rax FE, while MKP opened Thor drops (= high tech) with a 9'52 natural!! Despite expanding 6 minutes later, MKP outpaced his ancestors.

Le ver est dans le fruit since the beginning. Consider for instance the first game of the very first GSL finals between FruitDealer and Rainbow, another macro game from proto-WoL. At 15 minutes, FruitDealer was already on 170 supply out of a Speedling expand into 2b mutas, with 11'30 Hive into 15'30 ultras out. As for his opponent, Rainbow opened rax fact CC into 2 fact Tanks/Thors 3 rax third and still got 130 supply of biomech (= high infrastructure costs + high tech) at 15 minutes despite only securing his natural at 8'30! Of course, in this case the values are “brute” as no fights had occurred (passive macro!), and they had considerably less than their heirs because of the uneconomical openings, but still… SC2 is simply drown in resources.

Here lies the “seed” mentioned above: regardless of the stage in which it is materialized, SC2's eco-productive system suffers from a chronic state of hyper-development.

Hence the common steep landscape of SC2 games. Think of it like a cheetah. It accelerates extremely fast from 0 to 110 km/h, but can only run on a short distance before collapsing. For the economic aspect, breaking the {2;2;1} worker triplet is sound and obvious, but we also need to bend that curve: probably a tad faster at the start, but with a slower pace afterwards. Taming the beast! LotV does not do that: the eco curve simply enters depression a few minutes earlier than in HotS—the cheetah runs even faster at the start, but runs out of steam even more brusquely.

Hyper-development is structurally incapable of producing action-packed, back-and-forth games on a constant basis; such games happen against the power of the propulsion, thanks to various counter-forces and shock absorbers—notably the defender's advantage (which, ironically, is partly fueled by the massive production infrastructure coming from said hyper-development: think for instance about the speed of remax of Z/P in lategame TvZ/P). To get such games, one has to hope that timings/all-ins damage but don't kill; that fights are “stalemates”; and that economies stabilize on a “medium” setup, ideally decreasing the army size:reproducibility ratio. Naturally, in the modern era, planets rarely line up; which is why Neanderthal games are the rule while authentic gems are happy accidents. From here also comes the dreaded phenomenon of the “single engagement into victor”.

The rocket engine of hyper-development is indeed self-destructive. The brutal contraction of time tends to generate a chronic state of instability: after the initial push, a plateau is reached from which “over-critical” action occurs (e. g. players have to go “all-in” on certain decisions, or on the engagements). + Show Spoiler + Then, when economies crumble in macro games, it's often too delicate to catch up: under the threat of their opponent's huge army, players cannot redevelop without risking immediate checkmate. This is also what makes games predictable and anticlimatic, on top of frequently preventing better players from coming back in the game.

The LotV economy (12 workers + 1500x4 + 900x4) is a massive regression compared with the already terrible SC2 basis. There is not the slightest ounce of “progress” here. (People who consider the LotV economy as an improvement confuse the symptom and the disease; the LotV economy fixes nothing, it simply makes the disease worse, so new symptoms arise.) I am sure people remember MULEs on gold bases and the ridiculous spikes of income on eco charts, triggering the nerf and the increasing scarcity of Gold bases on maps? Well, for LotV, the Blizzsters decided that it was Christmas for all races: MULEs on Gold are no longer the exclusive property of Korhal peasants, they are now democratized. Hurray for equality! The economic changes in LotV are simply this: a “Golden economy” with a free, permanent MULE at the start. What kind of gameplay do we get from this? Unsurprisingly, not a stable one.

The first SuperNova vs bly game is, for instance, a dazzling example of the kind of complete nonsense that LotV currently delivers: proxy 3 rax bunk contain 3OC into defensive Tank and Cloak Banshees mech vs hatch sac into 1b burrowed Roaches Lair rush into 2b turbo Roaches mass Nydus (spotted but indestructible). Yay, OK.

+ Show Spoiler +

So far, LotV is thus not an accident, but the accomplishment: the Blizzsters have finally the means to fully apply their original program…



… and they have many weapons at their disposal to keep contracting time. First, since boredom “de-contracts” time, “Mr. Viewer” comes to think that contraction of time is the key to solve the problem of… contraction of time. But “turtling deathballs” are merely the most visible symptom, so the problem is not at all defending or lesser mobility. The game ended up being too “slow” (= passive) because it is… too fast! same as camping partially comes from the fact that the defender's advantage is actually… too weak! The common misunderstanding allows the SC2 crew to tell the “community” what it wants to hear, while applying more of the methods which caused all the problems to begin with. Just consider the transition between the end of WoL and HotS: wasn't it exactly the same problematics? What little dark “miracle” turned Zerg (by essence supposed to be the anti-deathball race!) into a deathballing race? Answer: this horror was the rotten fruit of that one. Same as this or this come from this, MULEs rains in mech into air lategame scenarii are self-explanatory, etc. Then, after the scapegoat units were banned for political reasons (though WoL Infestors were of course a massive joke), HotS unsurprisingly had to recreate what WoL had refused to deconstruct… Out: broods/infests. In: SHosts/Corruptors/Viper. “But with LotV you precisely can't go broods/infests!” — Who cares! Symptoms change, disease remains. Sapping the eco substratum to weaken/prevent 200/200 accumulation changes nothing to the internal logic of hyper-development. Yeah, after the Roaches/Ravagers 3b all-ins are solved, you will a-click 170 supply of GMO mammoths instead. Anything new under the sun?

Second, the true-false concession of “less extra workers at the start”. They may concede less than +6. But then what? See for instance how politicians declare that “unemployment increased slower than foreseen this month” and claim that this is a decisive victory. Well, too bad unemployement still rose. Same idea here: hyper-development would still be deadlier, but less than with the 12 workers change. “Victory!” roars the big cat. Victoire sans lendemain.

Third, the total amount of minerals in a base: a worthy debate indeed, but one that leaves untouched the central question of hyper-development. If you remove 500 minerals from each node, or x minerals from y nodes, you didn't modify at all the basal rate of development! In fact, the sinister synergy between the 12 workers change and the decreased quantity of minerals in each base is a clever coup from the SC2 crew: they make sure that people cannot escape the game of cubes. The tour de force is to combine the “Golden economy” with various nonsensical tools (incarnations of the attacker's advantage) to further dive the game into a chronic state of instability, alternating short periods of passive, turbo build-up with high-stake “action”. Brutal propulsion into spectacular crashes—exactly what “Mr. Viewer” wants! Sense and strategy will further disappear in the wake of the razzia, but one cannot make an omelette without breaking some eggs. And no sacrifice is too big to multiply Sparks and get what the Blizzsters truly want to enforce: Speedcraft.