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On June 15 2012 18:07 Phanekim wrote:
most arguments do not deny that the OP has a point. the temporal balance is sort out of wack where there is an overemphasis on the first 12 minutes, that a certain advantage in the early game is too hard to come back from. This is consistent with teams that are evenly balanced. That when one establishes and early advantage, there are no comeback mechanisms.
This means most games are decided in laning phase instead of team fights where it should be decided according to most people.
I don't have a problem with the game being decided in laning phase, but a 5-10% advantage in gold should not lead to a 90% winrate. If it would lead to a winrate of 67-75% then it would be perfectly fine. Early kills should give an advantage, not the win.
If Riot wants the early advantage to lead to a win then the lategame should be even stronger so the game doesn't last 45 minutes even if it was already decided 30 minutes ago.
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On June 15 2012 17:51 1ntrigue wrote:Can we all agree that Smoke of Deceit would make LoL far more exciting? 
Hells yeah.
Smoke is boss mode. Would add a lot more jungle pressure to high level play.
I also wouldn't mind limiting the amount of wards that can be on the map at any given time as well... but thats just me.
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Interesting, would be very cool to see similar stats for Dota 2 and compare, since I'm a strong believer that snowballing is far less of a factor in dota 2, but it hard to say without clear data.
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On June 15 2012 17:41 Morfildur wrote:
[
The problem is that in series that go 2:1, the rule still holds true.
Even the team that only ends up getting 1 win (i.e. the worse team) will have this 12 minute advantage in this game and end up winning. That means even if the other team is better in general, if it is behind early by just a kill or two, there is barely any chance for a comeback.
A solution would be to make the cheaper early game items a lot more cost efficient than the lategame items, so even if you are behind in gold, you are not (simplified) half as strong as the opponent but instead ~75% as strong.
Another option would be to let skills scale better with XP and to reduce the AP/AD rates instead, so instead of for example 200+0.5 AP it would be 400+0.25 AP, items would still give a significant advantage but the difference would not be as big as it is now.
I have to disagree with you here. Scaling is not the problem, in fact, harder scaling allows for bigger comebacks.
Here are a few suggestions:
-allow for more ganks (smoke of deceit and ward restriction, buff the red buff again)
-allow carries to carry harder, this can cause frequent comebacks. For example: Team B is stomping Team A with numerous ganks, but meanwhile Team A's carry is last hitting like a chinese rice farmer. 30 minutes in the game, Team B is ahead in total gold and exp, but team A's carry has several core items. Team A's carry proceeds to rip the whole team apart (with back up from his team ofcourse). Team A pushes and wins.
Now there is a problem with letting items scale too hard, if you do this it promotes passive play style (farming instead of pushing or ganking). To fix this you need ganks to be viable, for example by making carries lose gold on death or by giving the killer a lot of gold for the kill or/and giving more gold for assists.
These two suggestions seem to contradict each other, but the goal is to allow for a more dynamic playstyle. You can shut down a farmer heavy team by ganking. You can shutdown an early game team by succesfuly letting your carry farm.
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United States47024 Posts
On June 15 2012 13:58 jeparie wrote:
Has anyone else considered that the more expensive items in LoL are more cost efficient than the cheaper items?
In dota and hon, the more expensive items are MUCH less cost efficient than the cheaper items. Completing more expensive items is really only good because you only have 6 slots, and because of the active effects of the items.
I think that might have something to do with why games are more snowbally in LoL than in dota.
In other words, when a team is slightly ahead in dota, the extra gold they have is partially getting sunk into things like recipes and combining 2 items with no increase in stat/gold efficiency.
In LoL, however, the extra gold that they use to buy an item makes the gold that they previously spent more efficient, giving them a larger advantage than you might see by just comparing gold earned
This is actually a key point. Ironically, the following post missed this:
On June 15 2012 14:42 Kaneh wrote:
I cannot help but feel that the claims of 'snowballing' are inherent to this genre. There are no alternate objectives, no economy vs military vs tech, nothing other than plain old gold, which means when you have an advantage, it is always an absolute advantage instead of an overall (aggregate) advantage.
Until there are ways of sacrificing in one area to hopefully gain a larger advantage in another area, snowballing will always be a problem.
In DotA there is enormous tradeoff between gold-efficiency and slot-efficiency. Items that are gold-efficient are generally very slot-inefficient and vice-versa. Because of this tradeoff, you cannot snowball a gold advantage into an immediate further advantage--because either you spend that gold on gold-efficient items, and cap out on items quickly (allowing the enemy to come back while you're saving toward something that you're going to sell an item to get), or you spend that gold on slot-efficient items, allowing the enemy to come back using gold-efficient items and forcing a fight.
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Hey guys! Back for a little. Sorry I haven't updated in a day or so.
My motivation for completing this project (the phase 2 of the project that involves benchmarks at every 3min) has waned somewhat. My wife sat me down and made me realize I had been spending 10-15 hours over the course of the extended weekend (around the business trip) and it had really cut into just general family life. The only reason I realized it is because it cut off my SC2 playing completely (I didn't spend my damn bonus pool before the season lock... grrr).
I'll get the 3min benchmarks up for the finals games today and compile some new looking charts, but after that I'll wait for the full VOD listing which is expected on the 18th.
On the 18th, if someone would be interested in helping compile the stats for the full tourney I would lloooove it. I'm envision myself having trouble compiling all that information solo.
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On June 15 2012 17:41 Morfildur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 14:15 GeorgeForeman wrote:
There's a lot of stuff to wade through here, but one point I did not see addressed is that teams that are better will tend to exert their superior play by the 12 minute mark of any game. One thing to note from MLG is that there were really only like 6 teams out of 19 (?) that had an actual shot at winning it. That means you had a lot of instances where bad teams would go up against clearly better ones and get wrecked.
I think a more interesting exercise would be to just look at teams that were "close" in terms of skill. For example, only look at series that went to three games. (It's a crude way to restrict the data, but it makes sense to me.)
The point is, instead of thinking, "The teams that are up early tend to end up winning, therefore comebacks are very difficult," you can look at the same data and think, "Most of the time, the better team (ie, the one that wins) will tend to show their superior skill even in the first 12 minutes." So the low rate of comebacks is more a sign that the game has such a steep curve that the superior teams will show their superior ability very early on in the game.
Personally, I think both interpretations are valid. Better teams tend to take early advantages, and they tend to hold those advantages throughout the game in part because they're just better. The problem is that in series that go 2:1, the rule still holds true. Even the team that only ends up getting 1 win (i.e. the worse team) will have this 12 minute advantage in this game and end up winning. That means even if the other team is better in general, if it is behind early by just a kill or two, there is barely any chance for a comeback. A solution would be to make the cheaper early game items a lot more cost efficient than the lategame items, so even if you are behind in gold, you are not (simplified) half as strong as the opponent but instead ~75% as strong. Another option would be to let skills scale better with XP and to reduce the AP/AD rates instead, so instead of for example 200+0.5 AP it would be 400+0.25 AP, items would still give a significant advantage but the difference would not be as big as it is now.
Based on what? Looking through the games he's charted, there were only 2 games from series that went 3 that were close after 12 minutes. No combacks in either of them, but both went long. One was from the TSM/CLG.eu series, and that game was back and forth the whole time and came down to a 50 minute team fight. Hard to say that was a "snowball" game.
Anyhow, my point is that the sample of elite teams playing eachother in games that are close after the early game is very limited, so drawing general conclusions about how well the game can snowball is questionable. And I don't think the CLG.na series vs. Dig and TSM are in yet, and I can remember at least a few combacks out of those 9 games....
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I was really into LoL and loved the community here but after playing a little dota, watching a pro game of LoL was really bizarre to me because the teamfights are literally scheduled by dragon and baron and whoever wins the first fight wins the game. Also it's hilarious that top laners can literally ignore the rest of the map for 20 minutes. Maybe the metagame has changed since the last game i watched, i sure hope so.
edit: i think it's also interesting that in dota a team can be ahead in towers but behind in kills, or ahead in kills but behind in cs, or ahead in cs but behind in gold (so a heavier distribution of gold towards your carry but your other guys are underfarmed because they were in a trilane) and you can even be far ahead in gold but behind in xp. in general, in LoL teams are either behind or ahead. its true that you can be behind in towers and ahead in kills. however in general kills, map control, cs, gold and xp are all strongly correlated, which the OP uses as the entire base of his idea. Doing a study like this in dota would make zero sense because there is no single metric which you can use to determine success. additionally, one team could have simply picked more carries than the other one.
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A 10% advantage in LoL is not the same as a similar lead in Basketball. Leads in sports do not grant the team in the lead additional athletic prowess. Imagine if a basketball team was 10% faster after grabbing that lead, it'd be much harder to come back against that. It's my least favorite part of MOBAs as a spectator.
Basketball would be less interesting if Miami's triple carry setup was farmed and no teams have a chance against them even though Lebron repeatedly blows his ults in the fourth quarter.
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If snowballing is a problem in LoL what would the solution be?
I think something along the lines of more gold efficent items, but slot inefficent, would help. Something like a Tier 2 Doran's Item that builds from nothing and builds into nothing. So grabbing one of them would grant a nice power boost immediately but would quickly fall off as teams keep farming. Teams that lose a big fight and fall behind in gold could all buy one of these to even out the playing field giving them a 50-50 chance in the next team fight rather than relying on the other team to throw the game.
The only issue with this is preventing the teams who get ahead from buying the items and rofl-stomping for the win. I suggest reducing the sell value of these items to less than 50%, maybe like 30% or lower, so if the team ahead already buys them the losing team would have to play defensive and farm past the effectiveness of the item. It's something I would at least like to see placed in the beta testing.
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On June 18 2012 04:10 Ghost-z wrote:
If snowballing is a problem in LoL what would the solution be?
I think something along the lines of more gold efficent items, but slot inefficent, would help. Yes, that would help. But the most important thing would be reducing tower damage by a whole lot, because as it is, if you are within range of tower + flash you are guaranteed 100% safe until 30 minutes or so.
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United States47024 Posts
On June 18 2012 09:26 Attakijing wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2012 04:10 Ghost-z wrote:
If snowballing is a problem in LoL what would the solution be?
I think something along the lines of more gold efficent items, but slot inefficent, would help. Yes, that would help. But the most important thing would be reducing tower damage by a whole lot, because as it is, if you are within range of tower + flash you are guaranteed 100% safe until 30 minutes or so.
That's actually much less of a big deal than people make it out to be.
Sure in DotA, towers don't hit as hard, but you have TP scrolls. Towers might hit harder in LoL, but you can't have 2 other players instantly appear on the tower when you're diving.
Strong defender's advantage actually works to curb snowballing, not aid it, because it gives the defending team room to maneuver without instantly losing the game.
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On June 18 2012 10:04 TheYango wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2012 09:26 Attakijing wrote:On June 18 2012 04:10 Ghost-z wrote:
If snowballing is a problem in LoL what would the solution be?
I think something along the lines of more gold efficent items, but slot inefficent, would help. Yes, that would help. But the most important thing would be reducing tower damage by a whole lot, because as it is, if you are within range of tower + flash you are guaranteed 100% safe until 30 minutes or so. That's actually much less of a big deal than people make it out to be. Sure in DotA, towers don't hit as hard, but you have TP scrolls. Towers might hit harder in LoL, but you can't have 2 other players instantly appear on the tower when you're diving. Strong defender's advantage actually works to curb snowballing, not aid it, because it gives the defending team room to maneuver without instantly losing the game. Well I don't know... I imagine that if towers did less than a quarter as much damage in early game, like in dota, it would allow really dynamic strategy like in dota, just because there would always be an opportunity for everyone to be ganked at all times. As it is now, like I said, top lane can literally ignore the other two lanes and tp in for dragon, and bot lane can (and needs to) just farm, for the first 20 minutes of every game.
A big difference is that harassing is a way bigger deal in LoL because it's the only way to be aggressive. In LoL, if some level 1 teamfight goes really well and your carry gets 2 or 3 kills, you can have an advantage 3 minutes into the game and then use it to harass the other guy out of lane, and the lanes are so set in place that it's pretty much gg at that point.
I'm probably wrong about a lot of this stuff because I was never that into high level LoL play. And maybe it's gotten more interesting since i switched to dota?
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This is just sad. Seriously, if you are 90% sure to win with a lead by 12 minute, that's horribly sad for LoL.
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On June 18 2012 18:51 Unleashing wrote:
This is just sad. Seriously, if you are 90% sure to win with a lead by 12 minute, that's horribly sad for LoL.
It would be fine if games didn't take an additional 30 minutes to end despite that, lol.
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On June 18 2012 04:10 Ghost-z wrote:
If snowballing is a problem in LoL what would the solution be?
I think something along the lines of more gold efficent items, but slot inefficent, would help. Something like a Tier 2 Doran's Item that builds from nothing and builds into nothing. So grabbing one of them would grant a nice power boost immediately but would quickly fall off as teams keep farming. Teams that lose a big fight and fall behind in gold could all buy one of these to even out the playing field giving them a 50-50 chance in the next team fight rather than relying on the other team to throw the game.
The only issue with this is preventing the teams who get ahead from buying the items and rofl-stomping for the win. I suggest reducing the sell value of these items to less than 50%, maybe like 30% or lower, so if the team ahead already buys them the losing team would have to play defensive and farm past the effectiveness of the item. It's something I would at least like to see placed in the beta testing.
What i think they need is more game changing items (BKB syle) as it is now the items are nice but very dull and very few items (maybe only zonyas) can make a big difference to the game.
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Watch some CLG.eu games. They probably win 50% of the games they are behind in. Yesterday they won one against m5 were they were 29000 behind in gold. Thats way too much actually, so that it makes me wonder if LoL is not snowbally enough. Because whats the point of winning early and mid game if you still lose in the end?[
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On June 18 2012 18:51 Unleashing wrote:
This is just sad. Seriously, if you are 90% sure to win with a lead by 12 minute, that's horribly sad for LoL.
Almost every pro game I watch tells a different story. DH and CLG.eu is behind early on very often and still manages to win. The same for M5 vs. curse.eu in the beginning.
The big points are:
- where does the gold advantage come from? better farming or kills or global objectives?
- who gets the lions share of the gold? damage dealer, tank or support?
- is the other team hindered in their progression through that gain in gold? by being dead or having their jungle mobs stolen
Gold often enough represents a level advantage and that is an advantage in power which turns into a general advantage on the battlefield. This only creates a snowballing effect if the losing team doesnt have the skill to capitalize on the winning teams mistakes or is unable to outmaneuver the leading team. It is NOT a systematic problem of the game. Gold doesnt matter as much as enemies making mistakes, placing smart wards, good teamplay and a good champion selection does.
The really clutch encounters happen after 15 minutes or so, when you are dead for a much longer time than in the beginning. Only then will a team have a decent opportuninty to capitalize on your mistakes. Gold can give a team an advantage, but it doesnt give anyone an autowin in a fight.
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On June 16 2012 23:25 SaturnAttack wrote:
A 10% advantage in LoL is not the same as a similar lead in Basketball. Leads in sports do not grant the team in the lead additional athletic prowess. Imagine if a basketball team was 10% faster after grabbing that lead, it'd be much harder to come back against that. It's my least favorite part of MOBAs as a spectator.
Basketball would be less interesting if Miami's triple carry setup was farmed and no teams have a chance against them even though Lebron repeatedly blows his ults in the fourth quarter.
If in basketball there were teams of such a high skill gap like in LoL games playing against each other (NBA teams against amateur teams) we would easily see a similar 90% statistic.
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On June 18 2012 21:00 Redox wrote:
Watch some CLG.eu games. They probably win 50% of the games they are behind in. Yesterday they won one against m5 were they were 29000 behind in gold. Thats way too much actually, so that it makes me wonder if LoL is not snowbally enough. Because whats the point of winning early and mid game if you still lose in the end?[
but keep in mind, it was an incredible job turtling by CLG:
-wave clearing: anivia's ult, trist + range + explosive shot, made it incredibly difficult to push into a tower with their team there. anivia's wall also makes engaging into the choke extremely risky.
-as a result of this, anivia and trist had perfectly good farm. even if m5 were that much gold ahead, anivia had nearly 500 cs if i remember correctly, and trist had a full IE/PD/LW/BT build; thats all the damage output you need haha.
-double shurelias. this one is overlooked, i think - teams snowball by pushing an advantage. if they couldn't by taking towers, they would have to do it by forcing fights at dragon/baron. the double shurelias helped CLG make sure they could disengage from an unfavorable fight and then still have a second shurelias to turn and reengage in their favor - even if they're down gold.
so, from their champions and waveclearing abilities, to their ability to avoid getting caught and engage on their own terms, they were able to stall a snowball and turn it around. this requires incredible coordination and good choices (in game and in buying items), which i think is a very good thing to have.
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EPT
