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On April 29 2009 17:55 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2009 16:28 MamiyaOtaru wrote:On April 28 2009 16:25 zatic wrote:
On a side note I love how regarding end of the world scenarios everyone seems to have this fantasy of stacking up huge amounts of canned food and small arms and ammunition but somehow expects drinkable water coming from the tab. Strawman much? No one expects that. It's not like the knowledge of how to purify water is that esoteric. Yet you need water to start with. Just saying that every kid knows you can survive weeks without food but only days without water. Yet in every end of the world scenario people start stacking up on guns and canned food without even mentioning water supply. If you assume water will still be coming from the tab why don't you just assume you will still be able to call pizza delivery. SoCal is what, 50 mio people living in an urbanized desert. Once the zombies start roaming everyone will just die of thirst before you will even open your first can of beans.
you could have like.. 500 buckets/pots/pans lying around collecting rainwater! ^^
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On April 29 2009 17:55 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2009 16:28 MamiyaOtaru wrote:On April 28 2009 16:25 zatic wrote:
On a side note I love how regarding end of the world scenarios everyone seems to have this fantasy of stacking up huge amounts of canned food and small arms and ammunition but somehow expects drinkable water coming from the tab. Strawman much? No one expects that. It's not like the knowledge of how to purify water is that esoteric. Yet you need water to start with. SoCal is what, 50 mio people living in an urbanized desert.
Good point. SoCal is fucked. While Wyoming is relatively dry, there are rivers everywhere so I sort of didn't think about the masses of people living where people shouldn't live since I'm in a low population area with plenty of water.
Even so, there are people who actually stock up on loads of slightly bleached water (that keeps for a good amount of time). I'm one, despite said proximity of a river. Won't last long, but can get me through a few days until other arrangements can be made, or the tap comes back on (in the event of a less than end of the world level disaster)
So you make a good point: there probably are people who aren't thinking of water (esp in dry areas) and maybe should be.
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can a mod seriously fix the title to sound more gramatically correct and more familiar to the english language. I realize i am fucking hammered right now, but every time i read thte title "epidemy at mexico" i hear it in the taco bell chihuahua voice. Why not "Swine Flu Epidemic" or Epidemic in Mexico"?
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Zurich15325 Posts
On April 30 2009 17:30 Masamune wrote:
can a mod seriously fix the title to sound more gramatically correct and more familiar to the english language. I realize i am fucking hammered right now, but every time i read thte title "epidemy at mexico" i hear it in the taco bell chihuahua voice. Why not "Swine Flu Epidemic" or Epidemic in Mexico"?
Sure thing, done.
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So basically this disease spreads very easily.
A global pandemic is likely.
However the actual disease seems pretty mild and the chances of dying are low, specially if you're medicated.
This is not the 17th century, we have medications and precautions.
I'm not too worried.
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The public schools(kinder-12th) have been shut down until may 8th. My sister has all this time off till then. UIL activities has been suspended until the may 11th. WTF this shit never happened during my years at school...all we got was a terrorist attack.
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this people dying is so so cool!
-cheers- 
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On April 30 2009 12:48 MaZza[KIS] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2009 01:37 Maenander wrote:On April 29 2009 23:58 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The WHO number is a lagging indicator because lab confirmation takes time. The number of deaths and illnesses attributed to the disease is always going to be greater than the current official lab-confirmed number. In a city like Mexico DF a lot of deaths will happen everyday. During a panic like this one, a lot of deaths will be misattributed to swine flu without any lab confirmation. That´s what probably happened. Of course international organizations and our governments should prepare for a pandemic nonetheless, but I think the probability that this virus will cause one is quite low. and you say this using what scientific model? A friend of mine (quite coincidentally) is doing a masters and he chose to do his modelling component on influenza. As the model is just finished (and has been confirmed by inputting other data with known measured results) he put the swine flu data thorough his model. Using a population size of 100,000 it took 8 people to start the epidemic. In just under 25 days approx 60-70% (cant remember the exact number) of the population was infected and in the end (as the curve drops off and people develop immunity, get treated, etc. etc.) 700 ended up dead. That's 700 out of 100,000 population. Now, the scary thing is that he didn't include mutation or re-infection in his model. Basically, his "best case" scenario model (just get sick, develop immunity/get treated, live/die) predicts 700 deaths for a 100,000 population. Imagine the problem compounded with todays urbanised societies/ Scientifically, yes, we are f*cked if this thing spreads... and it's going to spread QUICK unless appropriate containment measures are put in place. Hence why the panic from WHO. Why is this flu so bad? Because it's infectivity rate is so efficient (very low probability of being immune and good infection mechanism)... compound that with the population density of places like Mexico and New York; add in air travel and you've got a pandemic. I'm not saying to flip the script, but you should definitely be concerned... cover your mouth when you cough and/or sneeze and wash your hands thoroughly. With a little bit of care this thing won't spread and we'll be OK. We'll probably be ok anyways, but I'm sure you don't want to be in the dead statistic.... The last thing I'd worry about are conspiracy theories about the state of the economy. They could have just as easily had Michael Jackson rape another kid.
Ok I got this wrong, of course this one can get a pandemic just like the normal flu does every year.
But where did your friend get any numbers, while there are no reliable numbers out there??? I doubt his numbers, a toy model with insufficient input data won´t cut it. I doubt the mexican government could hide 20000 dead people in MexicoDF. At this point we would arrive next week at the latest according to his model, because the sample size of 8 was probably reached already about 2 weeks ago (unknown cases). There is no indication that this virus is more dangerous than normal flu yet (1 of 1000 infected dies).
I am not against protective measures though, I never was.
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On May 01 2009 15:46 Maenander wrote:
I doubt the mexican government could hide 20000 dead people in MexicoDF.
you never know haha
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On April 30 2009 18:42 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2009 17:30 Masamune wrote:
can a mod seriously fix the title to sound more gramatically correct and more familiar to the english language. I realize i am fucking hammered right now, but every time i read thte title "epidemy at mexico" i hear it in the taco bell chihuahua voice. Why not "Swine Flu Epidemic" or Epidemic in Mexico"? Sure thing, done.
rofl "Epidemy with Mexico", it's painful to read.
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You guys ALL need to take a step back.
You ALL need to read this before thinking another thing.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx
-------------------
Now you see? Less than 10 people have DIED as a DIRECT result of the virus. 3,500 people die A DAY from malaria ALONE. Why aren't we labeling that an epidemic? Because there aren't any vaccines that can be make which will make people very, very rich. I'm talking billions here.
You'll probably notice that it is my first post. Yes it is. I found the level of awareness on this matter very disturbing.
Basically, don't panic. This is NOT an epidemic. I'm not going to say out right away that it's a get rich quick scheme, but nowadays, anything is possible.
With a little more research, I think you'll find that the media, as always, has blown it out of proportion.
A big problem that humans face, is when something is unknown to us, we make assumptions. These assumptions can induce fear and cause widespread panic. If only people READ and RESEARCHED the topic, they would see that it isn't as bad as initially thought.
Without wanting to start any form of flame war, I'll just make a quick example. When the Twin Towers were hit, they estimated deaths to be above 10,000. I'm not sure about the exact number, but I'm sure it's under 4,000.
I'm not saying these deaths aren't tragic, I would just like to point out how the media uses hyperbole to attract ratings and sales.
Again, I apologies if this sounds like I'm attacking the media, but I'm a little frustrated at how they publicise the bad news, but not the good news. The pandemics, but not the cures.
I apologies again if I have offended anyone, and I assure you it was done unintentionally.
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i'm not panicing or even worrying, altough i'm going to live and work as an executive chef de cuisine in salvador da bahia brasil starting from next wednesday.
i took two flew shots in my entire life and that was when i was a kid.i never take any form of medicine except for some painkillers when its really needed to, therefore i never ever got sick during the last 25 years due to natural resistance( i drink smoke work under very stressy conditions etc)
i'm not saying people shouldnt worry or take precuations for this whenever they can r need to
but the thing is nowadays we are messing way to much with our natural resistance for no reason
i'm also not saying that there are indeed some really nasty ones wich none of us can handle no matter how healthy we are (maybe even this one)
but i'm more afraid for when a really big one is going to pop up and a bigger % is going to die due to have bad natural resistance
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Totally agree with the natural resistance part. There are way too many pills that people take and most of this stuff is overreacted. I mean if you look at description about almost every disease you can find similarities and actually think that you have all these diseases. And doctors and pharma companies are more than happy to give you some more prescriptions, just in case..
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this is all just a big media scam. normal flue is more deadly then this one so media blowed it up alot.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
The only thing i've noticed about the media coverage of the epidemic is that when it was only mexico with the problem I could only find one short article using google about the epidemic (the one zxk3 used in the op). I.e. this thing was largely ignored by the world media. And now that its spreading everywhere its getting over-hyped something terrible 
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On May 02 2009 22:04 BookTwo wrote:You guys ALL need to take a step back. You ALL need to read this before thinking another thing. http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx------------------- Now you see? Less than 10 people have DIED as a DIRECT result of the virus. 3,500 people die A DAY from malaria ALONE. Why aren't we labeling that an epidemic? Because there aren't any vaccines that can be make which will make people very, very rich. I'm talking billions here. You'll probably notice that it is my first post. Yes it is. I found the level of awareness on this matter very disturbing. Basically, don't panic. This is NOT an epidemic. I'm not going to say out right away that it's a get rich quick scheme, but nowadays, anything is possible. With a little more research, I think you'll find that the media, as always, has blown it out of proportion. A big problem that humans face, is when something is unknown to us, we make assumptions. These assumptions can induce fear and cause widespread panic. If only people READ and RESEARCHED the topic, they would see that it isn't as bad as initially thought. Without wanting to start any form of flame war, I'll just make a quick example. When the Twin Towers were hit, they estimated deaths to be above 10,000. I'm not sure about the exact number, but I'm sure it's under 4,000. I'm not saying these deaths aren't tragic, I would just like to point out how the media uses hyperbole to attract ratings and sales. Again, I apologies if this sounds like I'm attacking the media, but I'm a little frustrated at how they publicise the bad news, but not the good news. The pandemics, but not the cures. I apologies again if I have offended anyone, and I assure you it was done unintentionally.
Lol, are you the author of that article? Booktwo? Iunno, that doctor definitely a little out there. He says he's not one for conspiracy theories but his words before and after that sentence say otherwise. I'm not saying he's wrong, just presents himself as a radical while claiming otherwise.
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Am I the author of that article? Are you serious?
No. I am not.
Dr. Mercola is a world renown doctor, and I'm just a frustrated 18 year old, not wanting the world to panic over something that shouldn't be labeled an 'epidemic.' I wholly blame the media for the hype.
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for correctly predicting the bullshit that is swine flu i will exercise my congratulatory public "lol" at everyone who panicked.
LOL!
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sorry for the bump, but
PANIC! 1st confirmed case in Australia http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25452286-5018988,00.html
it seems alot of the anxiety and fear surrounding the flu has dissipated, but its troubling that it has actually been confirmed in my country :S
the report says it was a low count and she was no longer infectious.
Well the good news is she arrived in QLD, not NSW LOL. dont come to NSW plz flu
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EPT
