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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 617

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
gobbledydook
Profile Joined October 2012
Australia2605 Posts
October 30 2023 03:08 GMT
#12321
I'm not sure that this changes the overall political calculus.
I am a dirty Protoss bullshit abuser
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
October 30 2023 09:01 GMT
#12322
On October 30 2023 12:08 gobbledydook wrote:
I'm not sure that this changes the overall political calculus.

Well all those idiots got arrested. Doesnt matter if they were led on by fake Telegram psy-ops channels you should not be going to airports to harass people because they are citizens of another country

Some of the rumours appear to have been fomented by a Telegram channel called Morning Dagestan, which has more than 50,000 readers.
The channel has been affiliated with Ilya Ponomarev, a Kyiv-based former Russian politician who opposes the Kremlin and claims to co-ordinate a group of Russians fighting against Moscow in Ukraine, members of which have been known to hold extreme far-right views. Ponomarev stated on Sunday that he had not controlled the channel for more than a year.

Financial Times

This kind of rumor spreading is the worst. We had a school shooting in Serbia earlier in the year, tragic event. And during the day half the people in my office got a chain-message talking about how one of the main hospitals in Belgrade didnt have enough O+ blood for one wounded girl. Im O+ and Im thinking maybe I can help, but then I think Im 45min away from there someone will get there before me how the hell doesnt that hospital have type O+ blood, O+ is not that uncommon.

Turns out a lot of people went to that hospital based off those messages and created chaos, blocking emergency services and everything for quite a while. Obviously a piece of shit spread the rumor knowing what would happen.
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4783 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-10-30 18:07:51
October 30 2023 17:43 GMT
#12323
Nevermind, won’t have the time to follow up properly. Sorry.
pmp10
Profile Joined April 2012
3398 Posts
October 30 2023 18:56 GMT
#12324
Interesting (if predictably dooming) TIME piece on Zelensky and the war.
time.com

One new insight of note:
Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
October 30 2023 19:58 GMT
#12325
On October 31 2023 03:56 pmp10 wrote:
Interesting (if predictably dooming) TIME piece on Zelensky and the war.
time.com

One new insight of note:
Show nested quote +
Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”


Difficult to say if the commanders are doing so based on better information than Zelensky has or other reasons.

We know that since the counteroffensive began, there's been some gains of ground, so advancing is incredibly difficult. If the decision is to preserve Ukranian lives, that's understandable. Overall, the Russian defensive lines have held pretty well. Similarly, where Russia's attacked near Bahkmut, it also seems to be largely a standstill.

Minefields are incredibly difficult to advance through in the best of circumstances, and Ukraine seems to still be fairly far away from being able to achieve enough fire superiority to advance through minefields in an expedient manner. There's a need to be able to clear hundreds of meters of minefield in one go, with multiple lanes of advancement.
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
October 30 2023 21:10 GMT
#12326
On October 31 2023 03:56 pmp10 wrote:
Interesting (if predictably dooming) TIME piece on Zelensky and the war.
time.com

One new insight of note:
Show nested quote +
Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”

A very interesting article, this part really caught me offguard:
When I raised these claims with a senior military officer, he said that some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

That cant have been a real demand?
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 30 2023 22:46 GMT
#12327
Update on the battle for Avdiivka. Seems to be Wagner replacements fighting now.



"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 03 2023 01:24 GMT
#12328
Medvedev has warned Poland that Russia now considers them a state enemy and that they could lose their "statehood" if they continue to aid Ukraine.

MOSCOW, Nov 2 (Reuters) - A top ally of President Vladimir Putin warned Poland on Thursday that the NATO member state was now considered a "dangerous enemy" by Russia and could end up losing its statehood if it continued on its current course.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, made the comments in an 8,000-word article on Russian-Polish relations, saying Moscow now had a "dangerous enemy" in Poland.

"We will treat it (Poland) precisely as a historical enemy," Medvedev said. "If there is no hope for reconciliation with the enemy, Russia should have only one and a very tough attitude regarding its fate."

"History has more than once delivered a merciless verdict to the presumptuous Poles: no matter how ambitious the revanchist plans may be, their collapse could lead to the death of Polish statehood in its entirety."

There was no immediate response to his comments from Poland.

The war in Ukraine has sent already tense relations between Warsaw and Moscow to new lows.

Poland, which has backed Ukraine, accuses Russia of trying to destabilise the country with disinformation campaigns and espionage. Moscow has condemned what it sees as Warsaw's hostile stance towards it and Russian interests in Poland.

Medvedev, who cast himself as a liberal moderniser when he was president from 2008-2012, now casts himself as a fiercely anti-Western Kremlin hawk, often lashing out at the West with insults.

Diplomats say his views give an indication of thinking at the top levels of the Kremlin elite.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22488 Posts
November 03 2023 09:47 GMT
#12329
Russia is free to find out what happens when NATO directly enters the war
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7326 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-11-03 10:14:29
November 03 2023 10:14 GMT
#12330
On November 03 2023 18:47 Gorsameth wrote:
Russia is free to find out what happens when NATO directly enters the war


The way the war is going, there is no need for NATO. Poland alone would raze Russia to the ground
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11941 Posts
November 03 2023 10:49 GMT
#12331
On November 03 2023 10:24 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Medvedev has warned Poland that Russia now considers them a state enemy and that they could lose their "statehood" if they continue to aid Ukraine.

Show nested quote +
MOSCOW, Nov 2 (Reuters) - A top ally of President Vladimir Putin warned Poland on Thursday that the NATO member state was now considered a "dangerous enemy" by Russia and could end up losing its statehood if it continued on its current course.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, made the comments in an 8,000-word article on Russian-Polish relations, saying Moscow now had a "dangerous enemy" in Poland.

"We will treat it (Poland) precisely as a historical enemy," Medvedev said. "If there is no hope for reconciliation with the enemy, Russia should have only one and a very tough attitude regarding its fate."

"History has more than once delivered a merciless verdict to the presumptuous Poles: no matter how ambitious the revanchist plans may be, their collapse could lead to the death of Polish statehood in its entirety."

There was no immediate response to his comments from Poland.

The war in Ukraine has sent already tense relations between Warsaw and Moscow to new lows.

Poland, which has backed Ukraine, accuses Russia of trying to destabilise the country with disinformation campaigns and espionage. Moscow has condemned what it sees as Warsaw's hostile stance towards it and Russian interests in Poland.

Medvedev, who cast himself as a liberal moderniser when he was president from 2008-2012, now casts himself as a fiercely anti-Western Kremlin hawk, often lashing out at the West with insults.

Diplomats say his views give an indication of thinking at the top levels of the Kremlin elite.


Source


Isn't that an upgrade? Didn't Russia previously view Poland as basically a victim/something that they should own? Being an enemy is better, i think. It at least means that you are taken serious.
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
November 03 2023 13:14 GMT
#12332
As we get close to five full months since the start of Ukraines offensive in the south their commander in chief gave an interesting interview to The Economist:

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia
General Valery Zaluzhny admits the war is at a stalemate

An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian lines. “If you look at NATO’s text books and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust in the south, where inexperienced brigades immediately ran into trouble.

“First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the general told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P.S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”

economist

Obviously, there is a lot of cope and blame shifting in the article but comming from the highest levels there is a lot to be read between the lines about why it turned into the disaster it did. The reaction to this article has been... Interesting to put it mildly.
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
2Pacalypse-
Profile Joined October 2006
Croatia9545 Posts
November 03 2023 13:48 GMT
#12333
Yeah, that was a very interesting interview. I liked Anders Puck Nielsen's review of that article:

Moderator"We're a community of geniuses because we've found how to extract 95% of the feeling of doing something amazing without actually doing anything." - Chill
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44203 Posts
November 03 2023 13:58 GMT
#12334
It’s a multipronged war. A stalemate in one area does not mean a stalemate in all areas.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
2Pacalypse-
Profile Joined October 2006
Croatia9545 Posts
November 03 2023 14:02 GMT
#12335
I think the point is, even if you take all of the prongs into account, a long war seems like a more and more likely outcome. A black swan event like Prigozhin's charge towards Moscow is nice to dream about, but how likely it is for something like that to happen again I'm unsure.
Moderator"We're a community of geniuses because we've found how to extract 95% of the feeling of doing something amazing without actually doing anything." - Chill
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22488 Posts
November 03 2023 14:14 GMT
#12336
Its a stalemate now.
How long can Russia keep this stalemate going at current equipment attrition levels?
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44203 Posts
November 03 2023 14:17 GMT
#12337
On November 03 2023 23:14 Gorsameth wrote:
Its a stalemate now.
How long can Russia keep this stalemate going at current equipment attrition levels?

Perun did a good video on that question with a number of models.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 03 2023 14:40 GMT
#12338
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24156 Posts
November 03 2023 15:55 GMT
#12339
On November 03 2023 23:14 Gorsameth wrote:
Its a stalemate now.
How long can Russia keep this stalemate going at current equipment attrition levels?

Longer than Ukraine without the US dumping money and weapons on them.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 03 2023 16:25 GMT
#12340
--- Nuked ---
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