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On July 12 2022 15:16 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2022 07:13 Manit0u wrote:On July 12 2022 06:51 Simberto wrote:On July 12 2022 06:47 KwarK wrote:On July 12 2022 06:23 WombaT wrote:
I’m assuming Putin knows this and gambled on a quick Ukrainian fold militarily, possibly followed by the installation of a puppet government in best case scenario terms.
As this patently hasn’t happened, what’s the actual endgame here? Push on and don’t back down and, if you can make a military breakthrough, occupy Ukraine? That seems a crazy waste of resources.
Apologies folks as this has no doubt been hypothesised and answered many times, but I’m not especially regular in this thread/wanted to ask something more pertinent to the actual topic. That seems to be the new plan, yes. Or get close enough to a breakthrough that Ukraine sues for peace. It’s not a good plan. But i think at this point, there is no other plan possible either. The important thing here is that it is not Russia who is making the decision, it is Putin. And Putin cares mostly about Putin, and only secondarily about Russia. If Putin just stops the invasion right now, retreats, and returns to the status quo pre 2022 invasion (assuming Ukraine would accept that), he will not stay ruler of Russia for long, and he also will not stay alive for long. His legacy would also suck. It is always the same sunk cost in war. Lots of Russians have died. If you just abort the war, they have "died for nothing", which reflects really badly on the leadership. Which means that we are all stuck in this shit for a long time. Personally I don't think Ukraine is interested in suing for peace or any such negotiations. Especially that they've announced they're readying up a million new men. Zelensky also presses his military to increase efforts in southern parts of Ukraine and Ukrainian government told people in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to evacuate the cities. I don't think this has anything to say since ukraine would be posturing to be in a position of strength / resistance, even if they where holding on to their absolute last soldier. You always want to negotiate from a position that is as strong as possible, so ukraine has to appear strong no matter if they plan to kick russia out, or if they are planning to sue for peace. I too think that ukraine is not interested in suing for peace at the moment, but that is purely based on my general feelings, as it is impossible for me to gauge ukraines ability to continue the fight or to accurately determine their position.
UA now knows that peace is just an advantage for RU to build up for another attack. It's scary to realize that your larger neighbor intends to destroy you. So they're fighting for survival, there's no possibility of peace.
P. S. The following gaffe of gaffes is what Western opinions often sound like :p
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Canada11372 Posts
Yeah, were I Ukraine, I don't think I would trust any 'land for peace' deal with Russia. The end result of Crimea was just another launching point for Russia to open up another front in their war a few years later. Why wouldn't it happen again with any other land Russia gains? No, as long as Ukraine has weapons and manpower, I don't see them negotiating peace anytime soon.
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On July 12 2022 15:16 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2022 07:13 Manit0u wrote:On July 12 2022 06:51 Simberto wrote:On July 12 2022 06:47 KwarK wrote:On July 12 2022 06:23 WombaT wrote:
I’m assuming Putin knows this and gambled on a quick Ukrainian fold militarily, possibly followed by the installation of a puppet government in best case scenario terms.
As this patently hasn’t happened, what’s the actual endgame here? Push on and don’t back down and, if you can make a military breakthrough, occupy Ukraine? That seems a crazy waste of resources.
Apologies folks as this has no doubt been hypothesised and answered many times, but I’m not especially regular in this thread/wanted to ask something more pertinent to the actual topic. That seems to be the new plan, yes. Or get close enough to a breakthrough that Ukraine sues for peace. It’s not a good plan. But i think at this point, there is no other plan possible either. The important thing here is that it is not Russia who is making the decision, it is Putin. And Putin cares mostly about Putin, and only secondarily about Russia. If Putin just stops the invasion right now, retreats, and returns to the status quo pre 2022 invasion (assuming Ukraine would accept that), he will not stay ruler of Russia for long, and he also will not stay alive for long. His legacy would also suck. It is always the same sunk cost in war. Lots of Russians have died. If you just abort the war, they have "died for nothing", which reflects really badly on the leadership. Which means that we are all stuck in this shit for a long time. Personally I don't think Ukraine is interested in suing for peace or any such negotiations. Especially that they've announced they're readying up a million new men. Zelensky also presses his military to increase efforts in southern parts of Ukraine and Ukrainian government told people in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to evacuate the cities. I don't think this has anything to say since ukraine would be posturing to be in a position of strength / resistance, even if they where holding on to their absolute last soldier. You always want to negotiate from a position that is as strong as possible, so ukraine has to appear strong no matter if they plan to kick russia out, or if they are planning to sue for peace. I too think that ukraine is not interested in suing for peace at the moment, but that is purely based on my general feelings, as it is impossible for me to gauge ukraines ability to continue the fight or to accurately determine their position.
The only thing Ukraine might agree to is a return of 2014 boundaries since I really don't think they're ever going to get Crimea back and probably wouldn't want it back considering the amount of Russian integration historically and currently in those parts of Eastern Ukraine.
I don't think they're going to sue for peace until they get at least this. The problem is Russia absolutely isn't going to agree to this, its a huge shame to get militarily smashed by a bunch of country bumpkins that fight for a pretend country like this. Historically when military skirmishes were more common, empires would do mutually beneficial land trades (the Byzantine Empire did this a couple times) as a good faith arrangement to stop hostilities. But the current brand of nationalism is so cynical that I don't think either side could accept this sort of arrangement.
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Putin's peace offers were all insincere attempts to distract and buy time. Meanwhile Zelensky has consistently rejected the surrender of territory even when Ukraine was in a position of relative weakness. He's gotten bolder in how far back he wants to go with his territorial claims, but I think a big part that plays into that is Putin's dishonesty. He's considered a terrorist, and you do not negotiate with terrorists.
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Zurich15355 Posts
Video of German-supplied smart munition hitting Russian vehicle.
Submunition delivered by long range artillery, which descends on a parachute looking for vehicles, when found hits it with a shaped charge. Amazing to get drone footage of this in action.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155
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On July 12 2022 16:28 FeatherPlanes wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2022 15:16 Artesimo wrote:On July 12 2022 07:13 Manit0u wrote:On July 12 2022 06:51 Simberto wrote:On July 12 2022 06:47 KwarK wrote:On July 12 2022 06:23 WombaT wrote:
I’m assuming Putin knows this and gambled on a quick Ukrainian fold militarily, possibly followed by the installation of a puppet government in best case scenario terms.
As this patently hasn’t happened, what’s the actual endgame here? Push on and don’t back down and, if you can make a military breakthrough, occupy Ukraine? That seems a crazy waste of resources.
Apologies folks as this has no doubt been hypothesised and answered many times, but I’m not especially regular in this thread/wanted to ask something more pertinent to the actual topic. That seems to be the new plan, yes. Or get close enough to a breakthrough that Ukraine sues for peace. It’s not a good plan. But i think at this point, there is no other plan possible either. The important thing here is that it is not Russia who is making the decision, it is Putin. And Putin cares mostly about Putin, and only secondarily about Russia. If Putin just stops the invasion right now, retreats, and returns to the status quo pre 2022 invasion (assuming Ukraine would accept that), he will not stay ruler of Russia for long, and he also will not stay alive for long. His legacy would also suck. It is always the same sunk cost in war. Lots of Russians have died. If you just abort the war, they have "died for nothing", which reflects really badly on the leadership. Which means that we are all stuck in this shit for a long time. Personally I don't think Ukraine is interested in suing for peace or any such negotiations. Especially that they've announced they're readying up a million new men. Zelensky also presses his military to increase efforts in southern parts of Ukraine and Ukrainian government told people in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to evacuate the cities. I don't think this has anything to say since ukraine would be posturing to be in a position of strength / resistance, even if they where holding on to their absolute last soldier. You always want to negotiate from a position that is as strong as possible, so ukraine has to appear strong no matter if they plan to kick russia out, or if they are planning to sue for peace. I too think that ukraine is not interested in suing for peace at the moment, but that is purely based on my general feelings, as it is impossible for me to gauge ukraines ability to continue the fight or to accurately determine their position. The only thing Ukraine might agree to is a return of 2014 boundaries since I really don't think they're ever going to get Crimea back and probably wouldn't want it back considering the amount of Russian integration historically and currently in those parts of Eastern Ukraine. I don't think they're going to sue for peace until they get at least this. The problem is Russia absolutely isn't going to agree to this, its a huge shame to get militarily smashed by a bunch of country bumpkins that fight for a pretend country like this. Historically when military skirmishes were more common, empires would do mutually beneficial land trades (the Byzantine Empire did this a couple times) as a good faith arrangement to stop hostilities. But the current brand of nationalism is so cynical that I don't think either side could accept this sort of arrangement.
Crimea isn't something that Russia can keep unless they get a water deal done with Ukraine to feed it with water from a Ukrainian river. Either Russia controls southern Ukraine or it doesn't control crimea anymore.
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For how much people invoked memories of the winter war in the beginning, its amazing how little they seem to realise how that one ended and why. Suing for peace does not have to mean you trust the other side, it can simply mean 'I am either getting destroyed now/my position is only going to get worse from now on, or I continue to exist with the possibility of my enemy coming back later'.
For now it seems ukraine is able to resist which is all that matters for the prediction of suing for peace is gonna happen imo.
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Modern warfare is scary effective O.O
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Russian Federation614 Posts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/12/iran-drones-russia-uav-combat-ukraine
US says that Iran may supply drones to us. If true (probably it will be discussed during Putin's visit to Iran next week), it will mean the further increase of economic and military cooperation between Russia and Iran, since both countries, being under sanctions, need markets to sell their stuff.
If confrontation between Russia and the West continues, I wonder how Kremlin stance towards Iranian nuclear program will change.
Iran is also to become a full member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization this year.
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/middle-east/iran-to-join-shanghai-cooperation-organisation-this-year-uzbek-foreign-ministry20220711224244/
With China seemingly pushing them there and into BRICS as well.
Also there are photos of one of the GMLRS missiles (used by HIMARS system) bein shot down by SA-22 (or Pantsir-S1 in Russian designation) AA system (in Novaya Kahovka, where our supply depot was hit).
https://t.me/HersonVestnik/6277
So they aren't impervious, but Ukrainians seem to often combine their GMLRS volleys with unguided volleys from BM-27 or BM-30 (depending on required range) to distract our air defence, while GMLRS, being more accurate, go for the target.
Edit: Iran denies US claims regarding drone transfer
https://en.mfa.ir/portal/newsview/686762
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I wonder about Iran, they'd have to weigh their options carefully. Russia can't help Iran beyond the nuclear program, they have nothing to offer. They project no military power currently, as they are preoccupied in Ukraine and will not come out in good shape. The economy is reeling. I really hope the US finds a way to somewhat mend our relationship and work on weakening the sanctions. It would benefit Iran directly and instantly and further reduce oil prices. Russia has been exposed and is losing allies.
One thing that would be an issue is if China tries to supply Russia through Iran. Let's hope this isn't what's happening.
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This move by Iran is probably an attempt to put pressure on US in ongoing negotiations to restart JCPOA which I heard are not going well (Iran wants some monetary guarantees that the deal won’t be killed by US administrations to come).
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Iran wanting hard assurances after the last administration killed the deal for shits and giggles is not an unreasonable position to have, far from.
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Northern Ireland26083 Posts
On July 13 2022 04:12 Gorsameth wrote:
Iran wanting hard assurances after the last administration killed the deal for shits and giggles is not an unreasonable position to have, far from.
In a more disjointed world of see-sawing polarisation it’s basically a requirement for diplomacy and big breakthroughs to be worth pursuing in countries where there’s a degree of continuity.
It becomes less a matter of weighing up positives and negatives of whatever on the table, as much as ‘even if we agree will it be torn up in 5 years when the next bloke/blokette takes office?’
Continuity has its downsides too of course, I mean the US will be applying some degree of sanction to Cuba and unfailingly backing Israel probably right up to the destruction of the Earth, because that’s their policy and what they do and cannot be tweaked.
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Here's a few updates from the fight in Luhansk. From what I can gather, the Ukrainians used the HIMARS to take out not only Russian ammo stores but also air defenses for the entire Luhansk region. Not sure if this means that there are now no Russian air defenses in Luhansk (I would assume there still are somewhere else, but I could be wrong).
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There would have to be a lot more, but I'm sure Ukrainians will get to them eventually. They were allegedly flying planes poking around the area yesterday.
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Here's some recent numbers from Rosstat (their federal statistics agency):
Automotive production industry in Russia contracted by 97%,
buses - by 77%,
diesel locomotives - by 63%,
glass - by 61%,
washing machines - by 59%,
refrigerators - by 58%,
freight wagons - by 52%,
electric motors - by 50%,
passenger cars - by 40%,
baking equipment and elevators - by 35%,
pumps (must be industrial) - by 30%
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Jeepers, this is like Worms level military shenanigans
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I kind of assumed this was the case, but it's good that people way smarter and more knowledgeable are confirming (as much as confirming can be done in the war). I do have to wonder if Russia comes up with any ad hoc way to stop HIMARS and I honestly don't think they can.
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EPT
