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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45937 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:32 GreenHorizons wrote: Literally no outcome would invalidate the 89 out of 100 chance Biden wins 538 forecast. How is this still where that argument is? I think the only people still debating that fundamentally misunderstand statistics/probability. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8082 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:25 Nebuchad wrote: I mean if your model consistently predicts 98% probability of something and the 2% keeps happening, that is cause for concern about your model. But in this case that is not what happened, it predicted a high likelihood of a Biden win and this looks like a Biden win, so there's not much to criticize right now (except if you're a bitter contrarian, so, we're here) True. And there is no way to really test those models scientifically because the samples are tiny. So it's really people who do the best they can with the data they have and the science we possess. Unless we could run the same election 1000 times, no one can ever prove that a model is "right" or "wrong". | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12463 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
Of course, neither he nor his supporters will accept the results of the investigations, so it's not much of a silver lining. | ||
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:35 TheTenthDoc wrote: The one small silver lining to Trump's acting like a petulant baby is that I think he might actually order investigations into voter fraud and finally banish the GOP's boogeyman once and for all. The GOP has carefully avoided that at all costs, because the specter of voter fraud gains them far far more votes than any actual fraud costs them on the whole, but Trump does not care about them. This is that key mistake of believing that Americans will buy into investigations properly.  | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23957 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:33 Nebuchad wrote: Arizona has more in play left than they've been saying, so that's one bad news for Biden. On November 04 2020 23:51 GreenHorizons wrote: I feel like there's still another big shoe to drop soon. Like a bunch of votes materialize or disappear/get destroyed inexplicably for either candidate or something. Maybe I've just been up too long and am hallucinating. At least it's not a shaq sized doc martin so far | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:35 TheTenthDoc wrote: The one small silver lining to Trump's acting like a petulant baby is that I think he might actually order investigations into voter fraud and finally banish the GOP's boogeyman once and for all. The GOP has carefully avoided that at all costs, because the specter of voter fraud gains them far far more votes than actual fraud costs them on the whole, but Trump does not care about the party at all. Of course, neither he nor his supporters will accept the results of the investigations, so it's not much of a silver lining. They've had investigations. Kris Kobach had a whole force or something and I believe it found literally 0 evidence. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8082 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:33 Nebuchad wrote: Arizona has more in play left than they've been saying, so that's one bad news for Biden. Do you know how much? The NYT had Biden at +3 with >98% votes counted and still didn't call it out, I was kind of puzzled by that. | ||
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Batmankills
145 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12463 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:36 Nevuk wrote: Depends on where it is and how much. His lead there is pretty large. "Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted." It's quite a lot. But yeah, depends on where it is. | ||
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Diavlo
Belgium2915 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:33 Nebuchad wrote: Arizona has more in play left than they've been saying, so that's one bad news for Biden. Yeah that seemed very weird. But looking at each district, Pima and Maricopa seem to be where most remaining votes are and they are +22 and +6 for Biden at the moment. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:35 TheTenthDoc wrote: How many Bengazi investigations did we have? And I will bet you there would have been another one if Hillary had won 4 years ago.The one small silver lining to Trump's acting like a petulant baby is that I think he might actually order investigations into voter fraud and finally banish the GOP's boogeyman once and for all. The GOP has carefully avoided that at all costs, because the specter of voter fraud gains them far far more votes than actual fraud costs them on the whole, but Trump does not care about the party at all. Of course, neither he nor his supporters will accept the results of the investigations, so it's not much of a silver lining. The amount of negative investigations does not matter when your peddling a lie. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:36 Nevuk wrote: Depends on where it is and how much. His lead there is pretty large. They've had investigations. Kris Kobach had a whole force or something and I believe it found literally 0 evidence. Kobach's task force carefully dissolved before they had any official findings and was first and foremost a way to grift money into the pockets of of his cronies. That doesn't work as well when you need to find 10K plus fake votes to save your boss' fortune. | ||
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Batmankills
145 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23957 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:42 Batmankills wrote: This looks quite absurd. Not a single vote for Trump. https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1323992377380450309 I hope OAS specifically explains that one. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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virpi
Germany3599 Posts
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Batmankills
145 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:43 GreenHorizons wrote: I hope OAS specifically explains that one. I mean, i believe voter fraud chances are low in this election, but events like these are pretty absurd. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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