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On November 05 2020 00:21 Biff The Understudy wrote:
How many times does it need to be repeated, those are just mathematical that make statistical predictions. They are not Nostradamus, and not meant to be.
I read a million twitter post saying 538 was "wrong again". Those people do not understand statistics; if Silver had given Trump 2% chances of winning and Trump had won, he still wouldn't have been "wrong".
They have repeated the whole cycle that Trump had a chance to win.
I mean if your model consistently predicts 98% probability of something and the 2% keeps happening, that is cause for concern about your model. But in this case that is not what happened, it predicted a high likelihood of a Biden win and this looks like a Biden win, so there's not much to criticize right now (except if you're a bitter contrarian, so, we're here)
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So Trump camp wants the counting of votes to stop as of right now.
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So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win?
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On November 05 2020 00:27 KungKras wrote:So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win?
No, but if the counting stopped right now (As Trump wishes), he would
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On November 05 2020 00:27 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 00:27 KungKras wrote:So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win? No, but if the counting stopped right now (As Trump wishes), he would
Well... it's something
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It all comes down to Michigan.
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Trump's not handling it well.
Warning : dangerous misinformation ahead. Trump is LYING.
This tweet's turn of phrase is goddamn hilarious though :
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On November 04 2020 23:04 Simberto wrote:
What this elections tells me is that the US is lost at this point.
Your only chance was to slamdunk Trump into the dumpster. That was the only way your country had to normalize in some way. But you didn't. Despite horribly failing at his job in every possible way, and generally being about the most disgusting human being you can imagine, the election is still close, and Trump might actually still win. So you will keep getting Trumps, feelings over facts, and all that other bullshit. And your country doesn't care.
But even if he doesn't win, the best case scenario is a Biden president without a senate. So nothing happens for 4 years, then republicans blame Biden for nothing happening despite making sure that nothing happens. They somehow manage to find an even more disgusting asshole than Trump, and he gets elected.
You elected Bush twice. We though you learned your lesson afterwards, but instead you elect Trump. And even after this horror of a 4 year presidency, you still don't manage to beat him consistently, and he in fact somehow GAINED votes.
It is beyond my understanding what is going on in the US. But it really seems to be beyond salvation. It is only going to get worse from here on. Half your country is simply too stupid or insane.
To all the sane Americans, i can only advise you to somehow find a way to get out while you still can. The US is broken, and it doesn't want to be fixed. Half the country thinks that Donald Trump is a good choice for president.
Your mistake was assuming (or more so naively hoping) that Bush was some sort of anomaly within US politics, and that starting with Obama it was all on the path to having a political divide that looks similar to Europe.
At least you will most likely get Biden by the skin of his teeth at this point. You'll probably end up liking him less than Obama, who himself was less palatable than Bill Clinton, but hey, it's better than Trump for at least the next four years. Maybe he'll survive a challenge against the Alex Jones 2024 campaign, maybe not.
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On November 05 2020 00:27 KungKras wrote:So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win?
Depends on if you're of the opinion Al Gore won in 2000 or not 
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On November 05 2020 00:27 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 00:27 KungKras wrote:So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win? No, but if the counting stopped right now (As Trump wishes), he would
Most of the votes that have yet to be counted are from Urban areas, mail ins.
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On November 05 2020 00:27 KungKras wrote:So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win?
In the most important states they're now counting early votes where Biden has a strong lead, and he's already winning enough, so yeah you should be getting more confident right now
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On November 04 2020 23:57 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 23:53 Stratos_speAr wrote:On November 04 2020 23:51 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 23:45 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Another interesting side story here is that many people (like Wegandi) tried to dunk hard on pollsters and modelers like 538, whereas every model had the current projected outcome within the realm of their "likely" outcomes.
There will be a lot of talk about how polling of individual states was off (like FL), but the actual models did a pretty damn good job. What? The polls had Biden beating Trump by 1% in Florida (that's a huge error), had Biden winning WI by 7%, MI by 4-5%, etc. It is across the board the polls are off by 4%+ in one direction. The polls sucked and weren't close. Look how bad this is lol https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html I'll give you a chance to read my post again. More slowly this time, please. If you think the pollsters did a good job at accurately forecasting this election you're not going to convince me. The fact that 538 had Biden at 80%+ and he barely won is not a good look (coupled with the polls).
538 didn't predict that Biden would win 80% of the electoral votes lol. You seem to be mistaking a reasonably high chance of winning with a reasonably high number of electoral votes. Those aren't the same things. Whether he wins by 2 votes or 100 votes, a win is a win. The fact that it's close right now does not, in any way, invalidate the 80% win prediction.
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On November 05 2020 00:27 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 00:27 KungKras wrote:So.... We're getting more confident every second that it's a Biden win? No, but if the counting stopped right now (As Trump wishes), he would
Actually, he wouldn't! With Biden leading in NV, WI, and MI he has 270 in the outstanding states I'm pretty sure. Be careful what you wish for Trump.
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Doing what he is doing is so fucking dangerous.
Who would even want to weaken a centuries-old democracy like that just to stay in power four more years. A combination of never being satisfied and hating to lose that much?
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Ramping up the rhetoric now.
edit: trumps tweets, already posted.
He's priming his base for some really stupid shit.
Kinda sad that he doesn't understand the simple fact that reps favour vote in person, dems favour mail ins - but sadly that will go for the entire base too.
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United States44396 Posts
The Democrats main problem is that their ivory tower elitist politicians don't know how to bullshit to the idiotic American public.
If someone wants to know why they can't work making trucks in the factory their father worked in they don't want you to tell them some answer based on macroeconomics, they want you to tell them it's because of the Jews. The first answer will make them feel stupid, the second answer will make them feel angry and therefore motivated to work with you to destroy the menace. If they don't know why the greatest military in the world can't ever seem to win a war they don't want you to explain that warfare has changed since WW2 and that the responsibilities of a global hegemon are different, they want you to tell them it's because the generals are pussies who won't nuke people like we did to the Japs.
Trump bullshits and the American population lap that shit up. He tells them that tariffs are checks paid by the Chinese gov to the US, that the balance of trade deficit is a literal pile of money that the US gov had been sending to the Chinese gov and that only he would stop the practice of sending all your money to China, he tells them that diseases are fake, that the innocent are guilty, that every problem has a simple solution that the moron politicians are too dumb to implement.
The Democrats need to go one better. On healthcare they need to just paint the insurance companies as evil leeches, possibly run by Jews, who literally killed your grandma so they could extract some adrenochrome from her as part of their literal leech bloodsucking immortality plans. The American population will go "makes sense" and when the Democrats say "and the only way to stop those vampire insurance companies is to nationalize them" it'll get popular support. They need a literal tv star to deliver the lines too.
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On November 05 2020 00:30 KungKras wrote:Doing what he is doing is so fucking dangerous. Who would even want to weaken a centuries-old democracy like that just to stay in power four more years. A combination of never being satisfied and hating to lose that much?
If he loses he's going to jail and having all of his assets seized by Deutsche bank. No other president has had this much to lose.
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On November 05 2020 00:30 KungKras wrote:Doing what he is doing is so fucking dangerous. Who would even want to weaken a centuries-old democracy like that just to stay in power four more years. A combination of never being satisfied and hating to lose that much?
Someone who might go to jail if not elected.
Like the vast majority of autocratic narcissist in leader positions.
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So Mississippi, Arizona, New Jersey, and South Dakota all voted to legalize (Medical) Marijuana. That makes 36 states as of now, and neither party will endorse such a stance for legalization.
Both parties are beyond out of touch.
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Literally no outcome (save a third party win I guess? but they probably had a .00001% chance or something) would invalidate the 89 out of 100 chance Biden wins 538 forecast. How is this still where that argument is?
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EPT
