Nevada with some really good news for Biden, Carson City County has come in and Trump is actually underperforming compared to 2016, where he won the county by 14%. With 88% reporting, Trump is only up 11%. If these results are indicative that Nevada will remain the same as 2016, Biden can wipe some sweat off his brow. I expect at least a +50k from Clark county.

iPlaY.NettleS

Australia4416 Posts

November 04 2020 06:32 GMT

#1283

On November 04 2020 15:26 Batmankills wrote:

still counting or they done for tonight?

KwarK

United States43989 Posts

November 04 2020 06:32 GMT

#1284

If you sort PA by percentage reported you'll see almost all of the reported areas are strongly Trump while the Biden strongholds, Montgomery, Delaware, Allegheny, and Philadelphia are at 50%. And that's where the voters are.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html

State is frontloaded Trump voters but Biden is up 49 points in Philadelphia with 46% counted.

TheTenthDoc

United States9561 Posts

November 04 2020 06:34 GMT

#1285

On November 04 2020 15:30 Shingi11 wrote:
NE 1st for biden, could end up being very important. crazy how EC vote could be the decider.

Fox really going ham on calling key places for Biden. First Arizona, now NE 1st...bold decisions.

TheYango

United States47024 Posts

November 04 2020 06:34 GMT

#1286

On November 04 2020 15:28 LegalLord wrote:

Show nested quote +

Comparing to 2016, looks like a very low amount of third party voting.

That said, I voted third party, so there's at least one data point.

I feel like the third parties had way less visibility this election cycle. The establishment candidates just dominated coverage. Johnson and Stein at least got their names in the news in 2016. We barely heard anything about the third parties this time around.

Shingi11

290 Posts

November 04 2020 06:35 GMT

#1287

So tie is off the table with biden taking NE 1 i think. IF trump takes PA and biden holds the other 2 we are at 270 to 268. that is with trump winning Maine 1st.

IyMoon

United States1249 Posts

November 04 2020 06:36 GMT

#1288

On November 04 2020 15:35 Shingi11 wrote:
So tie is off the table with biden taking NE 1 i think. IF trump takes PA and biden holds the other 2 we are at 270 to 268. that is with trump winning Maine 1st.

Unless we have a faithless

Laurens

Belgium4557 Posts

November 04 2020 06:36 GMT

#1289

Politico still has NE 1 as Trump victory, with 78% votes counted he has a 52.8-45 lead.

TheTenthDoc

United States9561 Posts

November 04 2020 06:36 GMT

#1290

Man. It's really going to come down to MI and PA huh. Places that have gone out of their way to say they probably wouldn't be finished until Friday...

LegalLord

United States13779 Posts

November 04 2020 06:37 GMT

#1291

On November 04 2020 15:30 Uldridge wrote:

Show nested quote +

Would've been fun if the 2 party system broke because of some third party stuff.. or is that literally impossible right now?

Third parties can play as spoilers and siphon votes from the major party candidates. Occasionally they may lose because of it.

I don't think that's happening this year.

JimmiC

Canada22817 Posts

November 04 2020 06:37 GMT

#1292

--- Nuked ---

FlaShFTW

United States10402 Posts

November 04 2020 06:37 GMT

#1293

Nevada seems really good for Biden, in fact I would call it. Washoe county is really good for Biden right now, 82% reporting with +7 for Biden, when Clinton barely won this county in 2016.

KwarK

United States43989 Posts

November 04 2020 06:38 GMT

#1294

The irony being that 538 et al have been saying for weeks that it would come down to PA as the most likely decider and yet they've been derided by a few posters here all night for polling errors in other peoples' polls.

KwarK

United States43989 Posts

November 04 2020 06:40 GMT

#1295

On November 04 2020 15:37 JimmiC wrote:

Show nested quote +

5.9 with 93% reporting. Tight but I still like my odds

It's less tight when you think about a 1.1 point difference out of 7 needs 4.05 Trump vs 2.95 Biden which in turn needs 58% Trump voters in the remaining 7%.

Shingi11

290 Posts

November 04 2020 06:40 GMT

#1296

On November 04 2020 15:36 Laurens wrote:
Politico still has NE 1 as Trump victory, with 78% votes counted he has a 52.8-45 lead.

the major networks seem to have been leaning it to biden. Like they where trying to figure out how to divided NE since a lot of there screens where not letting them do it anything but solid.

IyMoon

United States1249 Posts

November 04 2020 06:42 GMT

#1297

NYT now have Biden winning GA with 60% of a chance. If Biden wins GA, he needs 1 of the rustbelt states (assuming AZ Stays for Biden)

LegalLord

United States13779 Posts

November 04 2020 06:42 GMT

#1298

Putting the current results into 538's "conditional odds" map, you get something like 60-40 chances for Biden to win. Feels like it's about there, given these results so far.

PA looks rough, though.

FlaShFTW

United States10402 Posts

November 04 2020 06:42 GMT

#1299

Trump's Georgia lead is now down to 2.5% with 91% reporting. Needle moved to Biden 64%. Some more small bits of good news. Lead is 120k votes with still a lot of Atlanta votes existing.