EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 98
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
Firebolt145
Lalalaland34491 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On April 03 2020 03:39 JimmiC wrote: What if the regular flu kills 3 million and Covid kill 3 million? At what number does it become not acceptable? Given what has happened in countries when things are left to run wild it would not just be 3 million if steps are not taken. I wouldn't forcibly close down any businesses or schools unless the expected deaths were over 10 million. Getting people to be hygienic, social distance and self isolate risky people is enough imo. | ||
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Firebolt145
Lalalaland34491 Posts
There is no way you can enforce social distancing while allowing employers to insist their employees continue to go to work. Even now with the UK in lockdown I get numerous calls every day from key working patients who complain that their employers insist they go to work where they cannot avoid being in close proximity of another person. Even with current measures hospitals are filled to the brim in many different countries. Imagine if we were more lax about and allowed people to still go to work or children to still go to school. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 03 2020 03:45 Banaora wrote: Jean Rottner, governor of the region grand est, has said on twitter that the masks he ordered have arrived in France. So was it all a misunderstanding? Well if it is a misunderstanding, that would be great. There is no doubt that these supplies are in high demand and the situation is pretty tough. France seized all masks produced inland, as did other countries, and thus seized masks that were built by a swedish company, bringing tensions between the governments for example. There are several examples of the same kind, some with Turkey as well. On April 03 2020 03:27 FiWiFaKi wrote: I guess my issue here is that you're very pro lockdown, and say the west is handling it poorly. And then people end up getting warned who have different opinions from you. I think the US is handling it better than any other country. The flu kills 250k to 500k people per year, while COVID is serious, the reaction is disproportionate. We move on with our lives while making easy changes to be more careful. Closing the country until a vaccine is no bueno in my books. When someone is 85 and they die, even if they are found to have COVID in their system, it's highly likely something else killed them. If COVID ends up killing 3 million worldwide, that to me is a completely acceptable number for a shitty flu season, doesn't justify so many people not being able to make ends meet. When you do the analysis of overall benefit to people, I think the minor reaction results in much better results than such a big one. Ok, let's quickly run a few numbers. The flu kills 250/500k *worldwide* per year. In France, there are approximately 2 to 6 million people who catch the flu each year. Out of these, around 10k die. Hospitals are not oversaturated and people can be treated. Imagine if Covid gets the same amount of cases. Let's target the middle, with 4 million. 20% of those need to go to the hospital, 5% in ICU, 3% die. That would mean 800,000 people in the hospital in a few months, 200,000 in ICU (in France, we had around 6k ICU beds total). And 120,000 dead. Add to that the overloading of ICU beds, that's probably around another 100k dead. You already have more than 200k deaths *only in France*. And the flu is seasonal. There is currently no proof that Covid is seasonal, which means it is not going to stop, until enough of the population has become immunised that is slows and stops spreading. It *seems* to spread a little bit slower in hotter countries, but that could be because their health systems are less developed and can't track it as well. I'll take a commonly used target of 60% of the population before it stops spreading. If I take the same figures I took earlier, that brings us to 40M people, with AT LEAST 3% dead (not even accounting the ICU shortages, that would greatly increase the death toll as demonstrated by Italy these past few weeks.) That is >1M deathes, only for France. I did this with a country well equiped in supplies and hospitals. There are 3 ICU beds in Central African Republic, for 4 million people. Do you want to guess a body count worldwide ? 3% of 7 billion people is 210million. Are you willing to bet 210million lives by taking only mild measures ? I don't see how the US is handling it better though. 2 trillion debt taken (it's pretty much the only country that can do this kind of thing since dollar is the reference currency), 10M unemployed in 2 weeks, and still a larger increase in cases and deaths than all other countries, while it had more time to prepare. If you compare to Europe as a whole, the US is still rising higher, faster in cases and deaths. | ||
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:01 FiWiFaKi wrote: I wouldn't forcibly close down any businesses or schools unless the expected deaths were over 10 million. Getting people to be hygienic, social distance and self isolate risky people is enough imo. I find myself in this camp somewhat. I think the govenment shutting down stuff is like shotguning stuff and doing both tons of harm and good, while people voluntarily engaging in safe practices is a million times more efficient. I would still ban stuff like music concerts for the meantime though. How do we get more people on board with self care? Thus far I'm very satisfied with how my country is dealing with this, specially compared to other LA countries. Argentina and Ecuador are a shit show, it saddens me how many more people will die and how the economy will get wrecked more than necessary because of populist politians. | ||
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Firebolt145
Lalalaland34491 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17268 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:14 GoTuNk! wrote: I find myself in this camp somewhat. I think the govenment shutting down stuff is like shotguning stuff and doing both tons of harm and good, while people voluntarily engaging in safe practices is a million times more efficient. I would still ban stuff like music concerts for the meantime though. How do we get more people on board with self care? Thus far I'm very satisfied with how my country is dealing with this, specially compared to other LA countries. Argentina and Ecuador are a shit show, it saddens me how many more people will die and how the economy will get wrecked more than necessary because of populist politians. This wouldn't work. It doesn't matter if 99.99% of people practice safety and hygiene. The other 0.01% is all it takes to spread it to the rest of the population. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:14 GoTuNk! wrote: I find myself in this camp somewhat. I think the govenment shutting down stuff is like shotguning stuff and doing both tons of harm and good, while people voluntarily engaging in safe practices is a million times more efficient. I would still ban stuff like music concerts for the meantime though. How do we get more people on board with self care? Thus far I'm very satisfied with how my country is dealing with this, specially compared to other LA countries. Argentina and Ecuador are a shit show, it saddens me how many more people will die and how the economy will get wrecked more than necessary because of populist politians. Would you mind elaborating a lot on the situation with Chile vs Argentina/Ecuador as far as Covid goes ? ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/bQ3fvkS.jpg) Things don't look too different apart from the deceased in Ecuador ? Can numbers for Argentina be trusted ? | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10656 Posts
In other news a bill passed that essential employees (with at-risk patients at their residence) can stay home up to two weeks with 2/3s pay. My boss notified me and told me that they will explore this and keep me updated on the logistics of going about this (if I have to take vacay first before I qualify etc). So that’s nice. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11519 Posts
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:40 Simberto wrote: I don't know how to react to the casual "3 million deaths is totally fine". Well that would solve retirement issues and reduce unemployment, no ? :-) Yeah, it's ridiculous, there is no good way to react. It's the epitome of "fuck them all, don't stop my business, I don't care if my parents die." | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23245 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:44 Nouar wrote: Well that would solve retirement issues and reduce unemployment, no ? :-) Yeah, it's ridiculous, there is no good way to react. It's the epitome of "fuck them all, don't stop my business, I don't care if my parents die." The only people I empathize with having this opinion are teenage orphans/familial abuse victims that are realizing they are totally hosed at every level through no fault of their own. I don't want to make any assumptions about anyone but I can't help but mention the casual consignment to death is disconcerting for me as well. | ||
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:34 Nouar wrote: Would you mind elaborating a lot on the situation with Chile vs Argentina/Ecuador as far as Covid goes ? Things don't look too different apart from the deceased in Ecuador ? Can numbers for Argentina be trusted ? Yes, 3 main differences. First, Chile is testing WAY more than the other 2 countries. 1200 tests per million (and growing) vs 363 (ecuador) and less than 200 for Argentina. This skews cases. https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/covid-19-testing-trends-globally-regionally/ Secondly, our infrastructure in general is just a lot better. There are already anectodal videos of bodies in Ecuador on the streets and no one picking them up. We have more beds, ICUs, ventilators, etc. Our government expects to DOUBLE our national health capacity by May. Thirdly, Argentina did the mandatory lockdown too early in my opinion, people are not respecting it and we are seeing some riots. Ecuador will most likely follow a similar path. Both are poorer countries and their economies are getting wrecked. Argentina's PIB is expected to contract 7% this year. Hiper inflation and food shortages are not impossible. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11519 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:44 Nouar wrote: Well that would solve retirement issues and reduce unemployment, no ? :-) Yeah, it's ridiculous, there is no good way to react. It's the epitome of "fuck them all, don't stop my business, I don't care if my parents die." I guess maybe the last thing is where its at. I wonder how many people who are fine with three million deaths would still be fine with it once their parents/grandparents are amongst those. Letting faceless numbers die is always easy. I think people should try to put a face and a probability to it. How many of you are fine with rolling a ten-sided die for each of your grandparents? If you roll a one, they die. (Depending on your age, this might also be true for your parents, uncles, aunts and so forth) | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On April 03 2020 04:55 JimmiC wrote: Was there any point to this point other than insulting people? If you dont want to make assumptions simply do not, instead of making these passive aggressive posts. This bing covid tracker has now surpassed 1 million reported cases. https://www.bing.com/covid Please stop making these actively agressive posts. Especially given no obvios insulting taking place. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15690 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44368 Posts
On April 03 2020 05:13 Mohdoo wrote: Right now, based on the Oregon models, I will be working from home though at least June. Probably until August. That's so wild. It has been 2 weeks and this might go on for 4 months? lmao. I think our culture will permanently change. Yep; for the youngest generations too. Every US school should be closed/ sticking to online/remote teaching through the rest of this school year.. and then we'll see how things are after summer vacation. | ||
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