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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9119 Posts
On March 28 2020 09:06 Danglars wrote: I don't put much stock on China's numbers but this is stretching it even for yellow journalism. A few days ago it made the news rounds here that a county hospital bought 1300 body bags, they had under 200 patients in total. It's meaningless, I'm sure if you think back on your workplaces you'll find that plenty if not most consumables were bought in far larger quantities than immediately used. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On March 28 2020 09:09 Sharkies wrote: The China situation is very easily explained. Since about two weeks ago, the number of imported cases has risen from 0 to 40+ per day. China is only doing what a lot of other countries wish they had done at this stage, which was to impose mandatory quarantine on all travellers (and massively restrict travel into the country). If other countries had done that early on, many of them wouldn't be in the situation right now (to be clear, this is not ban entry, it is mandatory quarantine). Schools are reopening in all parts of China apart from Beijing and Shanghai (playing it conservatively in Beijing as political capital and Shanghai as the main port of entry for all foreigners). The reality is a lot of people who cannot read Chinese have very limited information on the China situation (western media actually have very little understanding of China and often get basic details like the title of key politicians wrong), so it is difficult for the public to make an accurate assessment of what is happening based on fragmented and sometimes incorrect information. It would also help if many Western journalists were not recently kicked out of the country by order of the government. It's some kind of mashup between outright lies, government censorship, the lack of an independent press, and the cultural and lingual split. Schools reopening is a good sign, theaters shutting after having been reopened is not. The pieces we can get are often anecdotal and could be contradicted (like the Wuhan mortuary could be just a stockpile if no further stories come out). I want to know the situation out of China from citizen journalists and the like. But just look at Cui Tiankai (Wuhan videos) who was filling that role of informing foreigners and has disappeared. The Chinese ambassador to the US denied knowing even his name, despite having been asked on mainstream outlets. Also, I'm perfectly willing to believe America is having a worse tangle with the virus than China has had or is having. It's just so hard to get a grasp when independent news reports are a small trickle. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12193 Posts
Regardless, 5k urns times 8 mortuaries seems like it would match this type of number, depending on the time period that is represented by this specific delivery. It would be a little low even? We should expect the number of deaths to be lower than reality in all countries, as some people will die at home and never get tested. On March 28 2020 09:40 Danglars wrote: I want to know the situation out of China from citizen journalists and the like. But just look at Cui Tiankai (Wuhan videos) who was filling that role of informing foreigners and has disappeared. The Chinese ambassador to the US denied knowing even his name, despite having been asked on mainstream outlets. I googled Cui Tiankai and it told me that he is the Chinese ambassador to the US, I don't get it? Did you mix up his name with someone else's? | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9119 Posts
On March 28 2020 09:48 Nebuchad wrote: There is also a number of 56007 cremations in the city for the last quarter of 2019 that is circulating along with the data on urns. For example here. That seems to match with the numbers that China gave (the number is around 1500 to 2500 higher than last years) although if China is faking numbers they could fake the 56k number as well obviously. Regardless, 5k urns times 8 mortuaries seems like it would match this type of number, depending on the time period that is represented by this specific delivery. It would be a little low even? We should expect the number of deaths to be lower than reality in all countries, as some people will die at home and never get tested. I think the numbers thrown around from Wuhan seem deceptively large at first glance because it's a city with a larger population than New York that was pretty much invisible in western pop culture before this. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 28 2020 09:09 Sharkies wrote: The China situation is very easily explained. Since about two weeks ago, the number of imported cases has risen from 0 to 40+ per day. China is only doing what a lot of other countries wish they had done at this stage, which was to impose mandatory quarantine on all travellers (and massively restrict travel into the country). If other countries had done that early on, many of them wouldn't be in the situation right now (to be clear, this is not ban entry, it is mandatory quarantine). Schools are reopening in all parts of China apart from Beijing and Shanghai (playing it conservatively in Beijing as political capital and Shanghai as the main port of entry for all foreigners). The reality is a lot of people who cannot read Chinese have very limited information on the China situation (western media actually have very little understanding of China and often get basic details like the title of key politicians wrong), so it is difficult for the public to make an accurate assessment of what is happening based on fragmented and sometimes incorrect information. It's all well and good to say that China handled it well - and it's certainly hard to argue with that the lockdown significantly reduced the spread - but this seems a bit obtuse. Given 1. The alleged complete lack of community spread is a fully unrealistic assertion after the infection had already spread far and wide 2. China has already played with the numbers in the past by changing their criteria several times 3. Deciding to return to more lockdown-type conditions is inconsistent with everything being fully "under control" as claimed there is significant room to doubt the official narrative. It's true that a lack of access to Chinese language sources does present a barrier to better understanding of the situation, but you have not provided any insight based on that knowledge that would support a different conclusion. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On March 28 2020 09:48 Nebuchad wrote: There is also a number of 56007 cremations in the city for the last quarter of 2019 that is circulating along with the data on urns. For example here. That seems to match with the numbers that China gave (the number is around 1500 to 2500 higher than last years) although if China is faking numbers they could fake the 56k number as well obviously. Regardless, 5k urns times 8 mortuaries seems like it would match this type of number, depending on the time period that is represented by this specific delivery. It would be a little low even? We should expect the number of deaths to be lower than reality in all countries, as some people will die at home and never get tested. I googled Cui Tiankai and it told me that he is the Chinese ambassador to the US, I don't get it? Did you mix up his name with someone else's? Yeah, brain wires got crossed. Cui Tiankai was asked by Jonathan Swan (Axios) about citizen journalist Chen Quishi. He’s one of a number that have disappeared and whose family is asking for his status and whereabouts. The covid crisis makes it particularly concerning. | ||
Nakajin
Canada8989 Posts
Its gonna be the new normal for a while, well at least I got easy compared to most. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2620 Posts
However it's hard to blame China if they handled the virus well. So first you have to sell a narrative that they didn't handle it well and it only looks that way because they covered it up. And THEN you can put the blame on them. Fortunately it's not working very well because most people care about what is happening at home more than what is happening in China. Also they are now in exactly the same situation that other countries were in weeks ago (imported cases coming in) it's just that they have already learned their lesson. I think you could expect Chinese officials to be hyper vigilant at this stage. I would not be surprised if they tested the shit out of everything and just locked down again if they saw any signs of community transmission. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10522 Posts
On March 26 2020 23:42 Firebolt145 wrote: https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fp24qc/ Diary of a New York intensivist. Fascinating read. This is harrowing. Lunch arrives sometime after 13:00. Here’s one silver lining to all this: the community has gone out of its way to shower us with food. My lunches and dinners (residents know to always raid the hospitalists’ office and grab a plate before heading home to crash) have been Mediterranean chicken kebobs on Sunday, chicken piccata on Monday, and pizza today. It genuinely raises moral. This is probably the only part we can relate to right now. I haven't packed a lunch in over a week now. It's been pizza, pasta, pizza, sushi, pizza, pizza, all from members of the community. Today all the pizza was eaten by the previous shift and I was expecting to go without food since I didn't pack a lunch but half way through my break 3 large Dominoes pizzas came in with brookies and salads. At this rate we'll die of heart disease before the COVID gets us. Other than that our ER has actually been well below normal census for us. All the people that come in for whatever bullshit reasons have been staying home. We've seen a few COVID-19 cases, a ton of rule outs that we've tested, but otherwise it's been some of the least busy shifts I've ever worked. Being in the San Fran Bay Area I was really expecting worse since we were one of the earliest areas to start having cases but I guess the shelter in place order has been working. Now I'm worried that not enough people are getting it to start building up a herd immunity so once the shelter in place orders are lifted it will just open the floodgates. | ||
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Jek
Denmark2771 Posts
It'd be absolutely rediculous for China to try and cover-up to anywhere remotely near the preposterous claims of the nutcases. It would be the world's biggest PR failure of all history as it'd 100% be uncovered. Being honest and sharing their wisdom and experience is the fastest way for China to get on the good side of literally the entire western society it's way too big of an opportunity to toss aside because... reasons unknown. This isn't a war where the victor writes the history. If they did a cover-up I'd fear for the future, not because of virus' but because a completely inane goverment being in charge of a superpower I refuse to believe China's, or any country's for that matter, goverment consist of nothing but baffoons. | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On March 28 2020 19:09 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: The China cover-up spin is likely because many governments didn't handle the outbreak in a good way (especially the US). These politicians now need to be able to blame someone and China is the easiest target. However it's hard to blame China if they handled the virus well. So first you have to sell a narrative that they didn't handle it well and it only looks that way because they covered it up. And THEN you can put the blame on them. Fortunately it's not working very well because most people care about what is happening at home more than what is happening in China. Also they are now in exactly the same situation that other countries were in weeks ago (imported cases coming in) it's just that they have already learned their lesson. I think you could expect Chinese officials to be hyper vigilant at this stage. I would not be surprised if they tested the shit out of everything and just locked down again if they saw any signs of community transmission. Are you arguing that China has no responsability in the spread of covid19 and that they didn't tell the WHO that they were no signs of human to human transmission until it was too late ? Or that while they were saying that they bought respirators and masks from the EU and the US ? Once again, i'd like to remind you that it is impossible to trust any cn sources and that they banned foreign journalists. | ||
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2620 Posts
On March 28 2020 21:47 Erasme wrote: Are you arguing that China has no responsability in the spread of covid19 and that they didn't tell the WHO that they were no signs of human to human transmission until it was too late ? Or that while they were saying that they bought respirators and masks from the EU and the US ? Once again, i'd like to remind you that it is impossible to trust any cn sources and that they banned foreign journalists. China has some responsibility but lets not overdo it on the blame game. This is a timeline of early covid-19. Dec 10. One of the first patients starts feeling ill. Dec 16. Patient with infection in both lungs, working at the wildlife market, is admitted. Dec 27. Wuhan officials are told that a virus is causing the illness. Dec 30. Two people (administrator Ai Fen and doctor Li Wenliang post about the outbreak on WeChat. The first one is reprimanded, dr Li is called in for questioning. Dec 31 China reported 41 infected people of an influenza of unknown origin to WHO with a likely cause being the Wuhan wet market (closed the next day). Jan 1. 8 doctors who have posted about the virus are brought in for questioning. An official orders a lab to stop testing and to destroy samples. Jan 5. SARS is ruled out. Jan 7th. Central government starts being involved. Jan 7th. Information about the virus genome is released and it's classified as a coronavirus. Jan 11th The first death reported in China. Local officials claim there are no new cases (likely because of a pre-planned major CCP conference). Jan 13th The first reported case outside China. Jan 14th. WHO reports that China claims it has seen no clear evidence of human-human transmission. Jan 20th The first reported case in the US. Jan 23rd China puts Wuhan in lock-down (60 mn people in the full province). At that point 17 people had died. Essentially until Dec 27 there was no major cause for alarm. Dec 31 WHO is informed that something is up. That is pretty early on in the process. Local government then starts to try to cover things up for about a week. After that central government steps in, virus data is released. One week after that the questionable message about no confirmed human-human spread is released. The thing is that at this point this might be true because of the incubation period of the virus. The wet market wasn't shut down more than two weeks before. One week after this the entire province is quarantined. Essentially China went from recognizing that there is a virus on Dec 27 to full lock down on Jan 23rd. That's less than month, only two weeks after the first death, and it's done when only 17 people have died. In my book that is pretty damn fast. The real question is at what point did other governments start to take measures given the fact that they KNEW what they were facing. Also of course they started buying respirators. They had the problem right then and there was no major need in other places at the time (and probably every hope that the rest of the world could contain it). At this point they are selling/giving away respirators instead because they don't need as many. Can't really blame them for that and at the time most people believed that the virus could be contained. | ||
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
On March 28 2020 22:02 schaf wrote: I don't think blame games are getting us anywhere. I know there's not much to do staying at home but what does it help to know China effed up? Also this is not the international conspiracy thread - maybe we need one? I hope so; then I could be less of a lurker and more of a prophet. In terms of Coronavirus and You: I'm personally coming out pretty ahead here. My state (Oklahoma) is doing alright for the moment, though a lot of people aren't taking it seriously and a surprising amount of non-essential businesses are still running. My job gave 2 weeks PTO as of 7 days ago; I wonder if it will be extended if the circumstances here change, but either way I was considering putting in my 2 weeks anyway right before this whole thing hit, so.. this really has just been a free vacation of isolation. My dad isn't as lucky, as he's currently out of work for an unknown time without pay, and is the only income for himself/my mother. 6 cases as of now in my county (was 2 yesterday) so it could kick off a bit in the near future. | ||
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Salazarz
Korea (South)2591 Posts
On March 28 2020 21:47 Erasme wrote: Are you arguing that China has no responsability in the spread of covid19 and that they didn't tell the WHO that they were no signs of human to human transmission until it was too late ? Or that while they were saying that they bought respirators and masks from the EU and the US ? Once again, i'd like to remind you that it is impossible to trust any cn sources and that they banned foreign journalists. It took China less than a month to go from 'a couple dudes came down with a weird flu' to 'here is this new, highly infectious coronavirus, let's lock shit down.' It took Western governments more than twice as long to go from 'lol just a flu' to 'maybe we should actually consider doing something about this shit', all the while witnessing what's going on in China and the rest of Asia and having so much more data about it. We should be thanking all the deities mankind ever invented that the virus first popped up in Wuhan and not, say, Washington, considering the way we've been dragging our feet on this. | ||
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stilt
France2749 Posts
On March 28 2020 21:47 Erasme wrote: Are you arguing that China has no responsability in the spread of covid19 and that they didn't tell the WHO that they were no signs of human to human transmission until it was too late ? Or that while they were saying that they bought respirators and masks from the EU and the US ? Once again, i'd like to remind you that it is impossible to trust any cn sources and that they banned foreign journalists. Dunno, the WHO was informed on 31 december and the corona genetic sequence was shared on january 12. From this time, the West has to take responsability. The epidemy appeared at least 1 week later. Considering the process of identifying the virus, I suppose it is natural the authorities took time to react. Ours didn't begin a lock down before around 4500 thousand people were infected and was bragging 2 weeks before they will be no penuries. They banned a few american journalists who were here for american interests, america did exactly the same just before. French journalists can still operate. Anyway, this talk is borderline out of the topic. | ||
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TheYango
United States47024 Posts
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On March 28 2020 22:02 schaf wrote: I don't think blame games are getting us anywhere. I know there's not much to do staying at home but what does it help to know China effed up? Also this is not the international conspiracy thread - maybe we need one? Saying that you can't trust any cn numbers is pretty far from an international conspiracy, it's just common sense at this point. Secondly this is not the first time wet markets in China produces a deadly disease. They were warned multiples times since the SARS and asked to stop it. This is not playing the blame game, our governments are now responsible for containing the outbreaks in our respective countries. However that doesn't mean we should forget how slow the CN governement warned the rest of the world while they had the biggest migration of the year (cn new year) and how unwilling they are to close a 17billions market despite knowing it _will_ result in more diseases like this one. | ||
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Garbels
Austria653 Posts
The US had its first confirmed case of person-to-person transmission on 31.Jan. How did they react in february? Not at all I would say. Public health emergency in florida was Fist of March (edit: I noticed washington was one day prior). The EU->US travel ban was 11.March. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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