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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On February 03 2021 06:23 Emnjay808 wrote: if GME drops sub 50, im going in. It was $4 6 months ago. Do you have some special info that makes you think it'll go up? I can bet you any amount you want at 1:1 odds that the price will be below $40 at the end of 2021. Might be a better value proposition for you than buying GME at $50. Some TL admin might be willing to act as an escrow lol. | ||
KwarK
United States44436 Posts
On February 03 2021 06:23 Emnjay808 wrote: if GME drops sub 50, im going in. Best way to do this is sell 50 puts. You get paid to make that promise. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On February 03 2021 06:50 KwarK wrote: Best way to do this is sell 50 puts. You get paid to make that promise. Year out put @ 90 strike is 60 dollars right now. Seems like decent value if you think that GME won't drop below 30 for the rest of the year. Options are just not good to buy right now for GME, IV is way too high. Even if you think it's going to go down, would you really spend $60 per option (well 6000 since contracts are 100x), so that it goes to $20 and you make $10 for every $60 you "invest". Short selling showing its strengths here. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
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Emnjay808
United States10666 Posts
Back to Nio for me. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 03 2021 08:30 FiWiFaKi wrote: Year out put @ 90 strike is 60 dollars right now. Seems like decent value if you think that GME won't drop below 30 for the rest of the year. Options are just not good to buy right now for GME, IV is way too high. Even if you think it's going to go down, would you really spend $60 per option (well 6000 since contracts are 100x), so that it goes to $20 and you make $10 for every $60 you "invest". Short selling showing its strengths here. Straight shorting is definitely more profitable than puts; that’s been well known for a long time. Just don’t get dragged into some bizarre short squeeze and end up with unlimited losses and you’re good to go. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On February 03 2021 09:14 LegalLord wrote: Straight shorting is definitely more profitable than puts; that’s been well known for a long time. Just don’t get dragged into some bizarre short squeeze and end up with unlimited losses and you’re good to go. I think most of the time short selling is less profitable than buying puts. Catching a well timed drop in spy, like what happened a couple days ago would net you 500% profit, versus like 5% if you're short selling. Short selling has a lot less varience, so I would consider it to be much safer. Yes, you have a chance for infinite losses, but usually you'd cut your losses at 10-30% your investment, the position moves slowly. When you have a put option a month out, a 5% jump in stock price on good news kills 90% of the options value in a day. GME right now is a very special example, where imo puts are not good. | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8941 Posts
ive seen a lot of crying from these idiots about how robinhood blocking trades was market manipulation but how is what the redditors did any different? ive seen some arguments where they try to hide behind the veil of "individual retail brokers just using a free brokerage sevice" but thats got to be a load of bs. the entire price hike most definitely isnt going to be because of just the redditors but they were the catalyst and it was most definitely a coordinated attempt to artificially change the stock price. it may be hard to make a case in court against a bunch of redditors but it doesnt mean they didnt manipulate anything. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On February 03 2021 11:42 evilfatsh1t wrote: heres what i dont get about the wsb and its clown followers. ive seen a lot of crying from these idiots about how robinhood blocking trades was market manipulation but how is what the redditors did any different? ive seen some arguments where they try to hide behind the veil of "individual retail brokers just using a free brokerage sevice" but thats got to be a load of bs. the entire price hike most definitely isnt going to be because of just the redditors but they were the catalyst and it was most definitely a coordinated attempt to artificially change the stock price. it may be hard to make a case in court against a bunch of redditors but it doesnt mean they didnt manipulate anything. One is a group of people who publically talk about and speculate about stocks. Its no different than any trading floor or bar in any part of the world at any point of time. Robinhood IS the broker making the trades that is acting in benifit of the investment bank that owns it and gives it money by restricting access to the market for the people who don't have enough money to get around the rules. That robinhood is just a "free brokerage service" would imply that its suppose to be a brokerage and not just a trap for people to be manipulated by that company for the companies benifit and against the people who are investing in stocks. The market manipulation that WSB is no different that the market manipulation that the traders and hedgies that go on cnbc and other media to talk about stocks. What robinhood is doing that makes what they're doing worse is that they're providing unequal access to the market for poor people and rich people. You can get around their stock buying restrictions by just having enough money. On top of this there's just a lot of latent rage over 09 and how they're just going to fuck us over again because they know they'll never go to jail or face anything other than a slap on the wrist if we're lucky. | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8941 Posts
i just dont get how retail investors can think they are purely victims when they were also trying to manipulate the stock price. i dont really like the comparison to floor traders and wsb because floor traders dont conspire to raise the price of a stock with the intent of creating a squeeze. thats what wsb did. it wasnt innocent speculation of a stock price, it was the deliberate coordination to create short squeeze and fuck some people over with the side benefit of making money for yourself. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
It wasn't a pump and dump, it wasn't trading on asymetric information. What happened is like looking at the companies balance sheet and telling other people this company is good/bad, based on fundamentals to change price. Which analysts on TV or investment reports do all the time. A few people did their research, and saw what I would call a valid investment strategy, to make money on people that made a bad investment. They weren't telling people to buy with the intention of selling right after. What Citadel did, was equivalent to placing to placing a bet on a boxing match, and then broke one of the fighters legs before the fight. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
The hedgefund loss was mostly a paper loss i think,they would never cover their shorts for 400$ though maybe some had to i dont know. Did the short percentage increase or decrease during the past 2 weeks,those numbers would be interesting to see. I think in the end many small investors made a loss though no doubt the ones who got in early made big. They got kinda lucky the brokers protected them from buying more stocks lol. | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8941 Posts
On February 03 2021 14:12 FiWiFaKi wrote: I don't view what WSB was doing as market manipulation, at all. It's efficient distribution of capital in the market with a net expected return on invesment. It wasn't a pump and dump, it wasn't trading on asymetric information. What happened is like looking at the companies balance sheet and telling other people this company is good/bad, based on fundamentals to change price. Which analysts on TV or investment reports do all the time. A few people did their research, and saw what I would call a valid investment strategy, to make money on people that made a bad investment. They weren't telling people to buy with the intention of selling right after. What Citadel did, was equivalent to placing to placing a bet on a boxing match, and then broke one of the fighters legs before the fight. how is what happened with wsb anything like looking at company financials and speculating on the price of stock? its not comparable at all. hedges shorting was a decision based off the company performance but wsb's "plan" had absolutely nothing to do with company performance. it was conditioned on other people partaking in the plan to influence stock price completely irrespective of how the company was actually performing. thinking that the shorts are a bad bet and making the shorts a bad bet is a whole different thing to me. wsb didnt let things run their course and speculate on whether gme stocks would rise because the company genuinely started to perform better. wsb forced stock prices to rise by conspiring with others in their own community. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On February 03 2021 14:44 evilfatsh1t wrote: how is what happened with wsb anything like looking at company financials and speculating on the price of stock? its not comparable at all. hedges shorting was a decision based off the company performance but wsb's "plan" had absolutely nothing to do with company performance. it was conditioned on other people partaking in the plan to influence stock price completely irrespective of how the company was actually performing. thinking that the shorts are a bad bet and making the shorts a bad bet is a whole different thing to me. wsb didnt let things run their course and speculate on whether gme stocks would rise because the company genuinely started to perform better. wsb forced stock prices to rise by conspiring with others in their own community. I think any investing strategy that has an expectation for profit, and doesn't deceive people, from an ethical standpoint, is fine, and should be legal. People make bad investments all the time, buying when earnings didn't go their way and they read an gloom and doom article on the future of the company (and see the share price dropping every day), and or buying at the top because companies make headlines. It's like if I was at 100x margin on S&P500, it dropped by 1%, got margin called, be forced to liquidate, and many other people would be in my situation as well, that cascading effect would drop S&P500 by 50%.... And the company that was responsible for the drop would buy in at 50% original price. That's fair game, I'd be down a lot because I was investing without my own money. Malicious deception, and misrepresentation of information is what is concerning in regards to market manipulation. So for example, lying about selling your short position, making incorrect statements about earnings in your article to convince people to buy the company. Most companies have zero public announcements between their quarterly reports, and the stock prices wildly fluctuate on these companies. They go up long term, but short term, the market is one big poker game that isn't based on fundamentals. With how you're seeing the WSB situation, wouldn't all of technical analysis be viewed as market manipulation? BB is at $5, makes a deal with Amazon, no financial info on the deal, stock starts going up, people hop on the momentum, telling others to buy because growth potential is there, goes to $15. Is this unfair to you? Or did you not like GME because it wasn't based on the potential future of the company, but because someone was in an extremely overleveraged position, and was easy to cause a margin of call? If someone sold it for $5, are you a bad person for buying it because you knew it was worth $15? Only publically available info was used here. Anyway, struggling a bit being coherent, but the take away is that almost ever trade has a winner and loser, you're trying to take money from the guy across from you because you own McDonald's, he owns Wendy's... A dollar of revenue in one is a dollar less in the other. This GME short squeeze was one of the most ethical ways to take another persons money in the stock market. No tricks, no lies, genuinely helpful advice from people with fewer ulterior motives than anyone making a statement on behalf of a company. Reddit was even kind enough to spell out their manifesto over the whole internet, meanwhile, when you trade a stock, you don't announce and explain to the person you're trading with why you are right and they are wrong. You keep that informational advantage to yourself. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20255 Posts
On February 03 2021 14:44 evilfatsh1t wrote: how is what happened with wsb anything like looking at company financials and speculating on the price of stock? its not comparable at all. hedges shorting was a decision based off the company performance but wsb's "plan" had absolutely nothing to do with company performance. it was conditioned on other people partaking in the plan to influence stock price completely irrespective of how the company was actually performing. thinking that the shorts are a bad bet and making the shorts a bad bet is a whole different thing to me. wsb didnt let things run their course and speculate on whether gme stocks would rise because the company genuinely started to perform better. wsb forced stock prices to rise by conspiring with others in their own community. From my understanding WSB people saw that the stock was undervalued because of the shorts and the recent good news with the Chewy guy joining the board and a new console generation. So it wasn't just "its shorted lets screw them". | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 03 2021 14:19 pmh wrote: The GME hype was a golden opportunity for the shorters,they could short more stocks for a very good price. These people they dont short randomly overnight,they do their research. I'm sure they thought the same thing at $20 and at $40. And yet it kept those highs for an impressively long time before the recent squeeze, and there are plenty of stocks in this market that have maintained absurdly high valuations for no good reason. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
The players need to do whatever it takes, as long as within the rule book to do so. Buying a stock and telling someone else about why they should also buy it with truthful information is within the rules. If we as a society view short squeezes as bad, then lets make some changes to the rule book. Regulate brokers more, get them to report all their clients portfolios more frequently, publish short interest on companies, set maximum allowable limits, so forth. I don't know the laws surrounding this stuff, but my issue is that the same way we have net neutrality, brokers should have market neutrality. If you're going to limit some stocks, you better limit every single one. You should not be allowed to play favorites. Your job to society is to facilitate transactions, and nothing else, otherwise conflicts of interest will arise. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On February 03 2021 16:09 LegalLord wrote: In hindsight, Robinhood was probably badly capitalized enough that it couldn't afford to put up enough money to support GME collateral, they didn't want to admit that they had liquidity problems, and are just bad at PR. It's what all the other brokerages that tried to limit trading mentioned and it's consistent with them being in a frenzy to raise extra billions almost overnight. A nail in the coffin in my eyes though; I've already been very displeased with how shitty the platform has been whenever it mattered. I'm sure they thought the same thing at $20 and at $40. And yet it kept those highs for an impressively long time before the recent squeeze, and there are plenty of stocks in this market that have maintained absurdly high valuations for no good reason. It's definitely the least bad explanation out of what it could have been, and hopefully an investigation proves it. Like you said, poorly handled. But that fuck up is on them, if they can't handle the customer amount, they shouldn't have accepted them in the first place. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Message from a TSLA veteran: Shut the fuck up and hold This sub,its amazing. https://blog.robinhood.com/news/2021/1/29/what-happened-this-week Makes perfect sense,i dont think they are badly capitalized. The collective risk just became to big. If anyone has a link where we can see the day to day short percentage at the end of the day then pls share,it would be interesting to see what exactly did happen. | ||
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