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Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
June 18 2022 09:38 GMT
#2181
Greek yields spiking.
That worked in 2020 for crash predicting. But I don't think I'll play.

Quadrillions of not-QE in the news by 2023 imo.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
June 18 2022 12:08 GMT
#2182
On June 18 2022 18:38 Vivax wrote:
Greek yields spiking.
That worked in 2020 for crash predicting. But I don't think I'll play.

Quadrillions of not-QE in the news by 2023 imo.

Panic over the ECB raising rates for the first time in 11 years from -0.50% to -0.25%?
And they haven't even raised them yet, just said they would next month.

Good lord, what a disaster the EU is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42596 Posts
June 18 2022 20:52 GMT
#2183
On June 18 2022 21:08 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 18 2022 18:38 Vivax wrote:
Greek yields spiking.
That worked in 2020 for crash predicting. But I don't think I'll play.

Quadrillions of not-QE in the news by 2023 imo.

Panic over the ECB raising rates for the first time in 11 years from -0.50% to -0.25%?
And they haven't even raised them yet, just said they would next month.

Good lord, what a disaster the EU is.

It’s really not but okay.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 18 2022 21:31 GMT
#2184
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support another 75-basis-point rate increase at the central bank’s July meeting should economic data come in as he expects.

“The Fed is ‘all in’ on re-establishing price stability,” Waller said Saturday in prepared remarks to a computational economics conference in Dallas.

Policy makers on Wednesday increased the federal funds rate by three quarters of a percentage point, to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, the largest hike since 1994. Chair Jerome Powell, who has vowed to raise rates until there’s “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is abating, told reporters at a post-meeting press conference that another 75 basis-point hike, or a 50 basis-point move, was likely at the Fed’s next meeting in July.

Officials forecast rates will rise to 3.4% by December and 3.8% by the end of 2023. Those would both be the highest levels since early 2008, when the US economy was on the cusp of the financial crisis.

Waller discussed lessons learned from that crisis and the pandemic in his remarks.

The Fed took swift and aggressive monetary policy action to stem economic and financial losses during the financial crisis and returned quickly to that playbook as Covid-19 spread in March 2020 -- slashing rates to nearly zero, ramping up massive bond purchases and implementing a slew of emergency facilities to stem panic in financial markets.

“The first time for these actions was scarcely a decade ago, and there is good reason to think such a response may not be extraordinary anymore,” Waller said. Future recessions, even “typical” ones, may well require turning again to the aggressive policy actions of the past two years, he said.

As a result, he said it was important to learn lessons from the experience and acknowledged criticism that the Fed had been slow to begin normalizing policy -- it only halted bond purchases in March and stared raising rates a few days later. He blamed this on policy makers saddling themselves with overly-restrictive criteria to start tapering bond purchases, which in turn delayed rate liftoff.

“By requiring substantial further progress toward maximum employment to even begin the process of tightening policy, one might argue that it locked the Committee into holding the policy rate at the zero lower bound longer than was optimal,” Waller said. “But if we again face those challenges, we now have the additional insight that only experience can bring.”


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 20 2022 02:02 GMT
#2185
Deutsche Bank now expects a recession, at least in the US.

The first economist on Wall Street to predict a U.S. recession in 2023 is moving up his timeline for an economic contraction.

"More than two months ago we forecasted that the U.S. economy would tip into a recession by end-2023," Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. economist Matt Luzzetti wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "Since that time, the Fed has undertaken a more aggressive hiking path, financial conditions have tightened sharply and economic data are beginning to show clear signs of slowing. In response to these developments, we now expect an earlier and somewhat more severe recession."

Luzzetti now sees U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at "sub-1%" in the first half of 2023, followed by a -3.1% contraction in the third quarter of 2023 — one quarter earlier than Luzzetti previously estimated. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Luzzetti expects growth to contract by another -0.4%.

"The upshot is that the economy is likely to contract next year by about 0.5%," the note stated. "A more severe downturn leads to a higher unemployment rate, which peaks near 5.5%. The weaker labor market helps to guide inflation closer to target by 2024, though we still anticipate a nearly half percent overshoot at that point."

Luzzetti and team also see the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaking at 9% in the third quarter of 2022. CPI, a closely watched measure of what Americans pay for goods and services, was up 8.6% year-over-year as of May — the most since 1981.

Recession fears are picking up across Wall Street and the C-Suite as the Federal Reserve embarks on an aggressive pace of rate hiking. On Wednesday, the Fed lifted rates by 75 basis points as the central bank took a harder tone on stomping out inflation.

On Friday, the Fed reiterated his hawkish stance on policy by noting in a report to Congress that the monetary body is "acutely" focused on bringing down inflation. The commentary weighed on stocks yet again despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite already being in bear market.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
June 20 2022 02:27 GMT
#2186
Odds are we’re already in one.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17249 Posts
June 21 2022 20:58 GMT
#2187
On June 20 2022 11:27 LegalLord wrote:
Odds are we’re already in one.


It seems the signs were all there...



Nicely explained.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-22 01:12:18
June 22 2022 01:00 GMT
#2188
Thats an interesting vid though i dont find the method that is beeing used to get his prediction all that convincing.
(comparing historical bearmarkets with the current drop). The vid unfortunatly does not discuss any of the underlying issues,i would be very interested in hearing what he has to say about that.

If interest rates are going to be significantly higher for a longer period of time then i do think PE will return to the mean eventually as laid out in this vid. But what this means for the market is less easy to predict.
It will take some time for PE to return to historic mean and profits could keep rising. Inflation alone should make profits go up if everything else remains equall.

Its difficult to say if rates will remain high for a long time.The current rate hike is far from enough to stem inflation,the fed is hesitant to do what it takes.
Rates are also not the biggest problem (this is my opinion which is different from mainstream economics). The biggest problem are the open market operations of the fed. If those continue (which i do expect) then hiking the rates wont change all that much unless there would be a very steep rise forcing a recession.

As said,i do expect the fed to keep liquidity very high. Maybe at a slightly higher rate but that is sort of irrelevant when inflation is aproaching 10%.
The problem is the seize of the liquidity and not so much the price of that liquidity (this i feel is an important point and again probably not a mainstream opinion. Price will have an effect on the seize eventually but for that to happen rates would have to be more or less equall to inflation at the minimum).
If the fed continues on its current path then i expect inflation to stay above 5% for 5 years if not longer.

It is difficult to see a market crash similar to 2008 in a environment with very high liquidity. I do think valuations will keep dropping (mostly due to the slow increase in rates) but a 75% crash i do not expect.
Unless the fed starts adressing liquidity directly. This is possible but virtually impossible to predict at least for me.
If the fed wont adress liquidity then eventually inflation will catch up with the dropping valuations and then you could end up with a rather mild bearmarket.
.
Personally i dont expect the market to drop signigicantly over the summer because there is still to much liquidity. (i dont think it will rise either).
Next point i think will be around the fall. When the fed has to asses the impact of the mild rate hikes they are planning to do.
I expect that by the fall there wont be any significant improvement when it comes to inflation,it will still be between 5% and 10%.

And then the fed has to decide again. Keep increasing rates (basicly kicking the can down the road) untill they get to a level where they will have an impact on inflation (which will take a long time at current pace). Or adress the excess liquidity directly.
Increasing the rates slowly while keeping liquidity very high will protect the market and to some extend the economy. But on the other hand it will prolong the inflation.
You could end up with high inflation lasting well over a decade , similar to the 70,s-80s previous century.
Untill volcker did what it took to stop it,which was 20%+ rates vs 15% inflation. For todays situation i guess that would mean 12-15% rates vs 10% inflation.

Or they could reduce liquidity which will trigger a more severe bearmarket and an economic recession. Resulting in a lot of pain on wallstreet (which is something the fed tends to avoid).

I dont think the economy can bear 15% rates anymore. It was possible for a short time in the 80,s because fundamental macro factors where more favorable (though it still came at a great cost). But the current situation is very different. Even 5-7 % rates will be problematic for the us government let alone the 10%+ that would be needed to stop the inflation. 10% rates are unly justifyable when there is still a lot of potential for real growth.
The fed could keep buying all the bonds off course,keeping liquidity very high. But that as said before wont stop inflation on the contrary.

Anyway this might seem a bit random and i find it rather difficult to explain how i see it directly but this is more or less what it comes down to.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 22 2022 12:48 GMT
#2189
Markets are back to collapsing with Biden telling Congress to suspend gas taxes. The irony being that what is good for the street is bad for the markets and vice versa.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11498 Posts
June 22 2022 14:06 GMT
#2190
Suspending gas taxes isn't good for the street either. It just means that the oil concerns increase their profit margins and charge the same amount of money from the people on the street.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-22 15:12:39
June 22 2022 15:09 GMT
#2191
A not insignificant part of the inflation comes from the energy market,leading to record profits in that sector. Suspending taxes wont do all that much in such an environment we have seen that in europe already. Where gasprices did fill the gap created by the tax suspencion in no time.

If oil would come down 25%+ then that would help a lot with inflation. It would be the least painfull solution overall except for the energy sector. Governments could intervene in the energy market but they have been very reluctant to do so and i dont expect this to change.

I can definitely see an argument for high energy prices,as it will help with the energy transition in the coming decades. But the cost at which this comes seems rather high for the rest of the economy.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
June 22 2022 15:22 GMT
#2192
A long-term increase in the price of energy, leading to deindustrialization and other adaptations, would be good for the environment. This is an outcome that should be encouraged, not fought against. Whining about the economy is stopping us from supporting the greater good or something.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13909 Posts
June 22 2022 17:07 GMT
#2193
High energy prices has been the thing that OPEC has tried its best to avoid over its entire existence. Sure they make money on it but the long term health of the cartel relies on a world that uses fossil fuels to run their economies by being cheaper and more convenient than investing in renewables. Nuclear power development wouldn't have been practically abandoned by parts of the world if the oil shocks in the 70's weren't smoothed out.

The problem for OPEC now is that the price of oil is disconnected with the price of gas and other practical energy now. Dropping oil to $70 or even $60 a barrel won't solve the bottlenecks in refinery capacity now that everyone is finally preparing for a post-fossil fuel world.

Russia decided to get out of the energy business far ahead of schedule broke things just as the world planned on its post plauge recession to come.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
June 22 2022 19:33 GMT
#2194
making money hand over fist is actually bad for opec

if we really want to sink saudi arabia, we need to trick them into becoming wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. in doing so we also stop global warming and save the world
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13909 Posts
June 22 2022 20:10 GMT
#2195
On June 23 2022 04:33 LegalLord wrote:
making money hand over fist is actually bad for opec

if we really want to sink saudi arabia, we need to trick them into becoming wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. in doing so we also stop global warming and save the world

Thats not how math works. Keeping people buying your product over decades is smarter than keeping prices high and watching the demand slowly sink down.

Higher volume is worth more than larger margins.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-22 21:30:13
June 22 2022 21:26 GMT
#2196
On June 23 2022 05:10 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 23 2022 04:33 LegalLord wrote:
making money hand over fist is actually bad for opec

if we really want to sink saudi arabia, we need to trick them into becoming wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. in doing so we also stop global warming and save the world

Thats not how math works. Keeping people buying your product over decades is smarter than keeping prices high and watching the demand slowly sink down.

Higher volume is worth more than larger margins.


But demand is already falling so perhaps OPEC and other Oil conglomerates realize that the end is here so why not get as much profit as possible before the end? EV's are now the best selling vehicles not only in the US, but in Asia, as well as Europe. That isn't counting Governments rapidly building renewable energy systems as fast as possible.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
June 22 2022 23:53 GMT
#2197
Warren asked Powell if Fed rate increases will lower gas prices, which have hit record highs this month.
"I would not think so," Powell said.
Warren asked if grocery prices will go down because of the Fed's war on inflation.
"I wouldn't say so, no," Powell said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/22/economy/jerome-powell-inflation-senate-hearing

Here powell says so himself. The rate hike wont have a direct effect on grocery and gas prices. Two of the biggest contributers to inflation.

I dont think Powell wants to drive the economy of a cliff as Warren suggested. The goal is still a soft landing.
This is possible but then inflation will remain high. Unless external factors would change dramatically.

Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13909 Posts
June 23 2022 01:02 GMT
#2198
The prices will never go down. The rate hike is meant to lower the increase in prices.

Even then it will be years until inflation goes down to normal. Crashing the economy as fast as possible is the only way to get things under control. That's why the market halved the last couple months.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
June 23 2022 11:29 GMT
#2199
On June 23 2022 10:02 Sermokala wrote:
The prices will never go down. The rate hike is meant to lower the increase in prices.

Even then it will be years until inflation goes down to normal. Crashing the economy as fast as possible is the only way to get things under control. That's why the market halved the last couple months.


I don't think that's a good idea. Once you pick the printer route you can't go back.
If they crash the economy, you still got all that money from the insane bailouts sloshing around but you reduce the industrial output as well: More inflation, more unemployment.

That's even worse, except for the bailed out corporations from the previous recession that can buy up things from entities there's no bailout for (= not in the stock market).
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13909 Posts
June 23 2022 14:04 GMT
#2200
If you don't get prices under control things get much much worse than a controlled recession.

The government has no levers to pull to control costs other than interest rates. We have the legislative branch paralyzed by a party that enjoys not doing anything and making things worse.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
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