EPTSouth American Politics thread - Page 60
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GreenHorizons
United States22990 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
48% means he has it in the bag, despite CNN Brazil's best efforts | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
edit: Live counting: https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On October 03 2022 06:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Wait, what? How many people voted I wonder. Also is there a city/countryside political expectations when it comes to voting like in the US? https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1576687282605604864 Bolsonaro is stronger in the south and center-west and weaker in the north/norteast, so if states in one region finish first, you can see a big change in results. Compare Rio Grande do Sul to Bahia, for example https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao;e=e544;uf=ba;ufbu=ba/resultados https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao;e=e544;uf=rs;ufbu=rs/resultados I would have 100% bet on a second round before today, and it's looking to be going that way | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On October 03 2022 09:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So a run off happens on Oct. 30th... I'm guessing it will then just be Lula and Bolsonaro on the ballot? Yup, that's how it goes. Count is pretty much over, few votes left to tally. Lula: 48% Bolso: 44% Tebet: 4% Ciro: 3% D'avila: 0,5% Thronike: 0,5% D'avila and Thronike are classic liberal and conservative respectively, so their voters will probably lean heavy towards Bolsonaro. Maybe a few of D'avila voters will go Lula, but probably a small minority. Ciro is left wing, but Ciro himself has a massive personal beef with both PT and Lula. I think his voters will probably go Lula, but Ciro himself might stay quiet, so some of them might annul or maybe a couple even go Bolso. Simone Tebet is the centrist candidate, so her voters (group to which I belong) will be the big factor, and I don't really know if she will support a candidate or where her voter might lean as a whole. I'll begruginly vote Lula, but I won't like it. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On October 03 2022 09:30 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So what positions are the Candidates of say Tebet, and Ciro? If they are center or even further right then Lula could be in trouble... Like I said, Ciro is perhaps even left of Lula, especially in regards to his developmentist proposals (active economic government intervention in any sector where it fits, buoyed part by tax increase, part by fuzzy assumptions). Otherwise, they are pretty much the same tbh. Tebet is a conciatory in most matters. Focuses on public-private partnerships, for example, instead of talking privatizations or strenghtening public companies, takes up usual left themes of gender and racial equality, but also focuses on the importance of maintaining democratic principles and not flirting with autoritarianism. During the campaign (and during her senate career), generally she's been much more critical of Bolsonaro than Lula, for what that's worth. She's said she will make her statement in 2 days, but the political commentary I've seen is saying that she will probably at least give her personal support to Lula, even if it's not the full support of her campaign | ||
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Ace Frehley
2030 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On October 04 2022 10:22 Ace Frehley wrote: Another point of interest is that there were some 30+ million people who didn’t show up to vote. If someone can inspire those people to go out and vote, that would be huge. Yeah, this is true, first round was about 20% of abstention despite mandatory voting (it's mandatory but if you don't vote all you have to do is pay a really small fine). If history is anything to go by, though, abstention in the second round is almost always higher so the question is more of who can convince their voters to show up again. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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