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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
On January 07 2025 22:44 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2025 07:10 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 06:45 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Government employees sorta got screwed out of a paid day off with MLK day and inauguration day falling on the same day.
However, the employees are getting Thursday off to mourn the death of Jimmy Carter.
So it ends up all even.
Trump is pushing back against reports by the WaPost that the scope of tariffs will be narrowed. According the the Trump camp it is full steam ahead on general tariffs on almost everything coming from outside the USA. So he really does intend to tank our economy. Neat. Unless he's lying, which is always a possibility for Trump. Great point, politicians didn't start lying until 2016... which makes Trump even more horrible. Trump invented lying. American politicians always fought for truth, justice and the American Way until Trump came along.
That's an obvious misrepresentation; it has nothing to do with him being the only person or the first person to ever lie. There is not a single person (not even just "politician") in the history of the United States who has lied as frequently as Donald Trump. It's not even close. He is the most extreme outlier out there when it comes to lying, so it is absolutely safe to say that Trump lying again is always a possibility.
What exactly do you mean by "tank"? Is the economy going to contract by 10%? Or is this just maudlin rhetoric?
Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information:
"The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups.
Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o
"Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes.
That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy.
The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs."
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/
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United States24615 Posts
The thing that stands out to me about Donald Trump is not so much the frequency with which he lies as how blatant about it he is. He's no longer unique now... this "deny reality even when it's staring you in the face" has proven be an effective strategy and others have adopted it.
"I didn't do X bad thing, vote for me." "Okay."
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On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information:
I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Also, the "expert consensus" on November 1, 2016 was that Trump would lose the election. So much for "the experts".
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/01/06/us-economy-job-market-2025-outlook/77380490007/
Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? I'll put #s to my comments. I think the US economic growth will be somewhat lower than it was in 2024. Something like 1.5% to 2.5%.
The negative 10-2 bond yield occurred during a time when no one knew who the next Prez would be. So, independent of Trump many expected a recession in 2025.
What is your range of economic growth possibilities in the USA in 2025? My range is 1.5% to 2.5%.
As a result of this outlook my life will not change much. I'm not planning any drastic maneuvers the next four years.
Then I'll get on my knees and pray We don't get fooled again. Don't get fooled again, no, no. Yeah. Meet the new boss ..Same as the old boss
2025 is just another year. You'll be dealing with lazy employees, lying salesmen, along with a batch of dedicated and inspired hard working people. meh.
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On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus."
Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves?
I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted?
If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes).
By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country.
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On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes).
I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025?
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On January 08 2025 00:00 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes). By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country. I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025?
What are you talking about? You don't even know what Trump's tariffs will actually be, and what the rest of his economic policies will actually be, so how can you justify creating a projection? What is your projection based on?
It's also not lost on me that you're consistently refusing to answer my questions.
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On January 08 2025 00:03 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:00 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes). By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country. I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025? What are you talking about? You don't even know what Trump's tariffs will actually be, and what the rest of his economic policies will actually be, so how can you justify creating a projection? What is your projection based on? It's also not lost on me that you're consistently refusing to answer my questions.
In order to plan my life in 2025 I have to have a range of possibilities in mind. I stated that range. You have none? You are living in chaos?
On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes).
By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country.
The USA Today's # projections are congruent with mine. Their narrative is click bait. I explicitly posted that a recession was projected by many independent of the result of the election months before the election.
Also, Biden in 2024 has about as many economic policies as Reagan did in 1988. Neither man was coherent during those years. Biden was not running the country in 2024 and neither was Reagan in '88.
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With Trump talking again about buying Greenland, I've wondered if some European country could buy Puerto Rico to create a new "European" holiday and retirement destination. It would be an excellent deal for Trump as Puerto Rico is not a state, and its residents can't vote for him. Also, they are in debt and occasionally get hit by costly hurricanes. Maybe Denmark could orchestrate an exchange for it.
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On January 08 2025 00:05 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:03 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 08 2025 00:00 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes). By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country. I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025? What are you talking about? You don't even know what Trump's tariffs will actually be, and what the rest of his economic policies will actually be, so how can you justify creating a projection? What is your projection based on? It's also not lost on me that you're consistently refusing to answer my questions. In order to plan my life in 2025 I have to have a range of possibilities in mind. I stated that range. You have none? You are living in chaos?
So you're just making up stuff without a proper justification, going out of your way to actually ignore relevant economic research, and pretending that your unsubstantiated "projection" is you avoiding "chaos". Got it.
Here are my two original questions again, addressing your denial of facts: Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves?
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On January 08 2025 00:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:05 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 08 2025 00:03 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 08 2025 00:00 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes). By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country. I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025? What are you talking about? You don't even know what Trump's tariffs will actually be, and what the rest of his economic policies will actually be, so how can you justify creating a projection? What is your projection based on? It's also not lost on me that you're consistently refusing to answer my questions. In order to plan my life in 2025 I have to have a range of possibilities in mind. I stated that range. You have none? You are living in chaos? So you're just making up stuff without a proper justification, going out of your way to actually ignore relevant economic research, and pretending that your unsubstantiated "projection" is you avoiding "chaos". Got it.
no, my economic projections are based on what i've already posted along with my personal experience. if you have no counter to it.. fine. you'll never be wrong. i could be wrong. meh.
On January 08 2025 00:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Here are my two original questions again, addressing your denial of facts: Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves?
i care about his policies and execution. "philosophy" is vague enough that any one can call it bad or good no matter what he does. and again, i've put a # to it. Ain't much happenin' in 2025.
If you want to get sucked into the vortex of "news" sensationalism... have fun man.
I project Trump will do a decent job and my quality of life will be slightly better in 4 years than it is today. Contrast this with my projections of what Trudeau and Mcguinty would do to Ontario and Canada. I projected they were going to fuck the province and the country into the ground; thus, I put time and effort into my career so I had work options outside of Canada.
You are projecting Trump is going to wreck the country? Are you creating an exit strategy?
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Northern Ireland24261 Posts
On January 07 2025 23:22 micronesia wrote:
The thing that stands out to me about Donald Trump is not so much the frequency with which he lies as how blatant about it he is. He's no longer unique now... this "deny reality even when it's staring you in the face" has proven be an effective strategy and others have adopted it.
"I didn't do X bad thing, vote for me." "Okay."
People at large don’t want truly 100% honest politicians, while we do collectively bemoan it I think there’s a collective acceptance for the need for some fudging and polish. More so in leadership parties or those in contention, the iconoclast independent or lifelong back-bencher can somewhat be beloved for saying it like it is. Whereas the ambitious politician who goes around saying ‘you know what I don’t know if we can fix that’ will soon be an unviable proposition.
But yeah it’s the difference between accepting the need for PR and spin, and just outright blatantly lying and it not being at all consequential.
Agreed that Trump is increasingly less of an outlier in this regard. Even if he was it’s still problematic but somewhat contained, but the malaise does appear to be spreading given that particularly odious trail he blazed.
As with many things Trump I think some of the biggest damage he’s doing is going to be medium thru long term based on how he’s shifted the limits of previous acceptability and shown what’s viable.
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On January 08 2025 00:17 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 08 2025 00:05 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 08 2025 00:03 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 08 2025 00:00 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes). By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country. I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025? What are you talking about? You don't even know what Trump's tariffs will actually be, and what the rest of his economic policies will actually be, so how can you justify creating a projection? What is your projection based on? It's also not lost on me that you're consistently refusing to answer my questions. In order to plan my life in 2025 I have to have a range of possibilities in mind. I stated that range. You have none? You are living in chaos? So you're just making up stuff without a proper justification, going out of your way to actually ignore relevant economic research, and pretending that your unsubstantiated "projection" is you avoiding "chaos". Got it. no, my economic projections are based on what i've already posted along with my personal experience. if you have no counter to it.. fine. you'll never be wrong. i could be wrong. meh. Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Here are my two original questions again, addressing your denial of facts: Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? i care about his policies and execution. "philosophy" is vague enough that any one can call it bad or good no matter what he does. and again, i've put a # to it. Ain't much happenin' in 2025. If you want to get sucked into the vortex of "news" sensationalism... have fun man.I project Trump will do a decent job and my quality of life will be slightly better in 4 years than it is today. Contrast this with my projections of what Trudeau and Mcguinty would do to Ontario and Canada. I projected they were going to fuck the province and the country into the ground; thus, I put time and effort into my career so I had work options outside of Canada. You are projecting Trump is going to wreck the country? Are you creating an exit strategy?
"Personal experiences" over data. Got it. I appreciate the honesty. You can't really "counter" anecdotes lol.
I don't know why you're lecturing me on "news sensationalism" when I'm the one who posted research and you're the one who posted a news article which you walked back by saying your own source's "narrative is click bait" when you realized it didn't say what you wanted it to say. If you want to get sucked into the vortex of "news" sensationalism... have fun man.
As I cited above, there are many reasons to believe Trump will be bad economically for the United States. I'm not leaving the country though; I'm preparing to weather whatever storms may happen during his second term, just as how I weathered his first term's storms.
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Northern Ireland24261 Posts
On January 08 2025 00:17 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 08 2025 00:05 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 08 2025 00:03 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 08 2025 00:00 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On January 07 2025 23:38 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On January 07 2025 23:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Maudlin rhetoric? Trump harming our economy is the expert consensus of economic professionals. This has been discussed for months already, both before and after the election. Surely you've seen or heard the countless accounts of how Trump's tariffs would start undoing the economic progress that Biden has made? Here is some information: " The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated Trump’s new proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of Americans, with the impact ranging from around 4% for the poorest fifth to around 2% for the wealthiest fifth. A typical household in the middle of the US income distribution, the think tank estimates, would lose around $1,700 each year. Trump's proposed tariffs projected to have a negative impact for all income groups. Let’s use a concrete example. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the value of washing machines jumped by around 12% as a direct consequence, equivalent to $86 per unit, and that US consumers paid around $1.5bn extra a year in total for these products. There is no reason to believe the results of even higher import tariffs from a future Trump administration would be any different in terms of where the economic burden would fall." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20myx1erl6o " Tariffs could have an inflationary impact or cause an economic downturn in the short run ... But no matter whether the short-term adjustment involves inflation or temporarily heightened unemployment, the long-run adjustment to tariffs involves lower incomes and production. Over the long run, tariffs shrink the size of the economy by reducing work and investment. ... Fewer hours worked and a smaller capital stock result in a permanently lower level of output and income. Additionally, tariffs lead to dynamic inefficiencies, which reduce productivity. ... Tariffs may also lead to inefficiencies through political favoritism and uncertainty. ... Increased uncertainty over trade and tariff policy itself can chill investment and decrease incomes. That brings us to Trump’s proposals. A dozen macroeconomic estimates have taken different approaches to analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, from estimating the fall in aggregate demand arising from the tax hikes to using various trade models to our work at Tax Foundation estimating the effects of the tax increase on labor. All studies consistently find that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative impact on the United States economy. The modeling highlights another major downside of imposing tariffs—the geopolitical pressure exerted on foreign governments to respond with retaliatory tariffs. When foreign governments impose taxes on US exports, it reduces how much US producers sell abroad, lowering incomes and shrinking output further. Most private forecasts of the effects of US-imposed tariffs model the impact with retaliation, ranging from tit-for-tat to more targeted responses. Estimates from Warwick McKibbin et al. of the Peterson Institution for International Economics suggest retaliation could more than double the economic losses from US-imposed tariffs." https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/ I do not think it is the "expert consensus." Well I guess since you disagree with the facts and ignored all of the direct quotes, studies, and sources, we'll just have to call it a draw ::shrugs:: If you're not going to acknowledge the answers, then why bother asking the questions? Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? I look forward to one day hearing a parent correct my teaching with something like "two plus two doesn't equal four; two plus two equals Donald Trump". I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Are there any numbers in all the stuff you posted? If only there were a way for you to click on the links and read the articles and studies, to figure that out... (yes). By the way, that USA Today article you posted agrees with me and the economists: Biden's economic policies will continue to help America recover, and once Trump's economic policies take over, things will become much harder for the country. I stated my projection for the US economy in 2025. What is your projection? Certainly you have one in order to guide your plans for 2025? What are you talking about? You don't even know what Trump's tariffs will actually be, and what the rest of his economic policies will actually be, so how can you justify creating a projection? What is your projection based on? It's also not lost on me that you're consistently refusing to answer my questions. In order to plan my life in 2025 I have to have a range of possibilities in mind. I stated that range. You have none? You are living in chaos? So you're just making up stuff without a proper justification, going out of your way to actually ignore relevant economic research, and pretending that your unsubstantiated "projection" is you avoiding "chaos". Got it. no, my economic projections are based on what i've already posted along with my personal experience. if you have no counter to it.. fine. you'll never be wrong. i could be wrong. meh. Show nested quote +On January 08 2025 00:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Here are my two original questions again, addressing your denial of facts: Does it really impact your identity that much, to learn that Donald Trump's economic philosophy is ignorant and harmful? What would you personally lose, to realize that Donald Trump is making more bad moves? i care about his policies and execution. "philosophy" is vague enough that any one can call it bad or good no matter what he does. and again, i've put a # to it. Ain't much happenin' in 2025. If you want to get sucked into the vortex of "news" sensationalism... have fun man.
‘America first’ has been a broadly consistent, understandable component of both Trumps first term and is front and centre in foreign and economic policy again moving into him taking office once more. I think one could point to something like that as a general philosophy of this administration.
I don’t see how it’s news sensationalism to report that Trump has repeatedly talked about introducing some kind of tariffs, and most economists not considering that a good idea.
So I mean a hell of a lot really does depend on whether Trump goes that route, and if so, what is the scope of tariffs if he does etc in terms of prediction and projections.
There are two separate strands of this as well, there’s the economy in totality, and there’s the ‘how is the economy doing for me? Or other sectors of society.’ When people say ‘the economy’ it can be referring to either, or both of those things.
To a degree I don’t think Presidents, or many leaders worldwide can have massive, massive impacts on the former, they’re mostly just along for the ride along with the rest of us. The latter they’ve more room for play, still limited but can be more impactful.
Or at least big, impactful positive impacts. It’s exceedingly difficult to steer that ship in the direction you want, but you can sink the thing.
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Trump had to spend like 20-30(?) billion bailing out farmers as a result of his tariffs against china. The notion that another trade war, which Trump has been very public about, won't see similar problems is just blind.
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On January 08 2025 01:46 Gorsameth wrote:
Trump had to spend like 20-30(?) billion bailing out farmers as a result of his tariffs against china. The notion that another trade war, which Trump has been very public about, won't see similar problems is just blind.
Shhhhh.... it's totally fine because Trump called Trudeau a governor (lol got em!).
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So Denmark is obviously not selling Greenland to Trump. How do you guys feel about him annexing it? Just to get it on the records in case it happens.
Logistically it's easy for the US, politically it would be a genius move if your aim is to make an enemy and alienate all of your NATO allies as quickly as humanly possible.
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On January 08 2025 03:50 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
So Denmark is obviously not selling Greenland to Trump. How do you guys feel about him annexing it? Just to get it on the records in case it happens.
Logistically it's easy for the US, politically it would be a genius move if your aim is to make an enemy and alienate all of your NATO allies as quickly as humanly possible. Article 5 followed by a coup d'etat from the military as they decide that while the US would probably win against the rest of the westerns world its a fight that no one wants to have.
More likely the military would just strait up refuse to follow the order to annex.
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Northern Ireland24261 Posts
On January 08 2025 03:50 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
So Denmark is obviously not selling Greenland to Trump. How do you guys feel about him annexing it? Just to get it on the records in case it happens.
Logistically it's easy for the US, politically it would be a genius move if your aim is to make an enemy and alienate all of your NATO allies as quickly as humanly possible.
The fact it’s even a question attests to fucking how insane things currently are.
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United States24615 Posts
Would the European response to the US invading Greenland (for whatever dumb reason) be any less tepid than the response to Russia invading Ukraine?
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The EU would, at most, sanction some industries and individuals. However, I would prefer to see some shenanigans related to the tech sector in such a case. It's really hard even to see the US being forced to close its military bases. Most likely, we will just say something about "value-based realism" and ignore it unless Europeans in heavily populated areas start dying.
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EPT
