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On September 24 2024 03:04 FlaShFTW wrote:
I think a lot of it has to do with Dems figuring out a solid strategy. Simply trying to win on policy doesn't play well in the current landscape of our society. Appearing strong, having quick wit, and being the supposed "alpha" is much more important these days. Biden simply didn't have that over Trump, in spite of his massive success as President. Harris, who is far younger, a former prosecutor and AG, was ready to throw hands. I also believe part of that was Democrats starts to say, fuck this whole "when they go low we go high" holier than thou attitude. They realized it didn't serve them any good. Now they're being more aggressive, going hard against the shit that Republicans have been saying, and it's working. It's sort of a fight fire with fire play, which works because Republicans realized they could get away by playing in the mud. Democrats have finally caught up and suddenly Republicans were saying how Democrats were bullies and that this rhetoric is divisive, in spite of a decade of divisiveness coming from their camp.
I agree with all of this. I think Lindsay Graham was right all along. Trump killed all they worked to build.
Regarding your "fight fire with fire" point, I think the republican "fire" before Trump was never "hot" enough to compel democrats to abandon their stupid "high road" nonsense. Trump redefining political discourse and normalizing open antagonism is very similar to republicans actually repealing Roe v Wade. In both cases, embracing full conflict rather than strategically inching out small wins destroyed their positional advantages.
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United States42509 Posts
On September 24 2024 03:50 BlackJack wrote:
who could have guessed that not running someone with borderline dementia would be a good idea
It was clear even a year ago that Biden was the only person Trump could beat and Trump was the only person Biden could beat. Republicans could have had President Haley if they would have subbed out their horse before the Dems did
Republicans do not control the Republican Party. Ask Ted Cruz and his ugly wife how much power they have over their candidate.
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Probably worth remembering this is in the context of Harris polling several percent worse than 2020 Biden and even 2016 Clinton (with some exceptions).
Seems Harris has squeezed all she's going to get out of being "Not Biden", and polling in the battleground states seems to indicate she's coming up short on closing it out. In that context, Harris begging for a debate makes more sense as does Trump declining (beyond the fact that he'd most likely lose it as well).
If this "Alpha" strat is working so much better than what 2016 Clinton and 2020 Biden did, the polling simply doesn't support that belief.
I think people are mistaking how bad off 2024 Biden was (since Dems were pushing the coinflip copium) for how well Harris is doing (actually a coinflip). Harris is doing worse than the 2016 and 2020 Dem nominees, but largely because 2024 Biden was so awful, people are thinking she's doing much better than she is.
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On September 24 2024 04:48 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 03:50 BlackJack wrote:
who could have guessed that not running someone with borderline dementia would be a good idea
It was clear even a year ago that Biden was the only person Trump could beat and Trump was the only person Biden could beat. Republicans could have had President Haley if they would have subbed out their horse before the Dems did Republicans do not control the Republican Party. Ask Ted Cruz and his ugly wife how much power they have over their candidate.
The Republican primary voters had the opportunity to sub out their candidate
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My understanding is Drumpf offered a set of 3 debates, Harris accepted one, and here we are. She doesn't need a debate as she's running as the opposition candidate to her own administration, but she needs a crutch to go "Drumpf is scared." He doesn't particularly need a debate as he's got ads, his rallies, and his alt media blitz, as well as picking up endorsements from Democrats like Gabbard, Kennedy, Amer Ghalib, and now Tim Walz, who at a rally proudly declared "We can't afford 4 more years of this," echoing the sentiments of most Americans towards the incumbent administration.
Drumpf didn't invent medical malpractice either, people wait half a year to see doctors or to have the wrong organ removed, and that's with the ACA. There's nothing in the LIFE Act mentioning D&C, let alone as a "criminalized" procedure as the newspapers lead on, not a single word, it deals with banning abortion, which if there's no heartbeat, and no baby, then there's nothing to abort or not abort. So if people don't have access to Thumer's privileged medical records it's safest to assume she had complications with a medication that may not be as safe as it is convenient, combined with run of the mill medical malpractice, possibly exacerbated by her race and sex.
Fans of Harris's message of joy and opponents of Drumpf's message of evil hate will be pleased to know that an Alaska man named Panos Anastasiou was arrested for making threats against six SCOTUS justices and a former president. Another ActBlue donor apparently. So I guess the obvious conclusion is he was inspired by Drumpf to threaten Obama and the six liberal justices of the Supreme Court. Also in assassin news, the golf course shooter had attached a scope to his SKS using tape. Sometimes far left incompetence is a boon.
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Norway28632 Posts
Trump just two days ago refused to have a debate on october 23rd. "The problem with another debate is that it's just too late. Voting has already started," the former U.S. president told supporters at a rally in Wilmington, North Carolina. reuters
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On September 24 2024 05:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Probably worth remembering this is in the context of Harris polling several percent worse than 2020 Biden and even 2016 Clinton (with some exceptions).
Seems Harris has squeezed all she's going to get out of being "Not Biden", and polling in the battleground states seems to indicate she's coming up short on closing it out. In that context, Harris begging for a debate makes more sense as does Trump declining (beyond the fact that he'd most likely lose it as well).
If this "Alpha" strat is working so much better than what 2016 Clinton and 2020 Biden did, the polling simply doesn't support that belief.
I think people are mistaking how bad off 2024 Biden was (since Dems were pushing the coinflip copium) for how well Harris is doing (actually a coinflip). Harris is doing worse than the 2016 and 2020 Dem nominees, but largely because 2024 Biden was so awful, people are thinking she's doing much better than she is.
You’re mostly right and I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Harris having a chance is a miracle because Biden was totally 100% going to lose. There was no reality where Biden was gonna win and that’s why Harris is the new candidate. Nothing short of 0% victory chance would have been enough to force Biden out. Would have been viewed as too risky unless he was tottttttally screwed.
However, 2016 was basically the inflection point of presidential elections having an entirely new culture and dynamic. It was the first election where nothing was more important than social media. Polls were crazy wrong. They have been slowly becoming more accurate since then. They’re decent at this point.
I fully expect Trump to outperform polling anyway. I am not doing victory laps yet. I won’t be until every news org calls it. But I do think it’s worth keeping in mind 2016 was extremely unique because it was the death of the old system of cultural influence.
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Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
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On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Do you think anyone not tired of his shit in 2020 is finally tired of his shit now? I honestly think that if his 4 years in office wasn't enough to turn you, then these last four years won't move that needle further. Sure, you hear of him being convicted and accused of all kinds of stuff, but you at LEAST equally hear of 'lawfare' etc. If you're willing to believe those waters are muddy, I don't see it turning you further against trump.
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On September 24 2024 07:37 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 05:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Probably worth remembering this is in the context of Harris polling several percent worse than 2020 Biden and even 2016 Clinton (with some exceptions).
Seems Harris has squeezed all she's going to get out of being "Not Biden", and polling in the battleground states seems to indicate she's coming up short on closing it out. In that context, Harris begging for a debate makes more sense as does Trump declining (beyond the fact that he'd most likely lose it as well).
If this "Alpha" strat is working so much better than what 2016 Clinton and 2020 Biden did, the polling simply doesn't support that belief.
I think people are mistaking how bad off 2024 Biden was (since Dems were pushing the coinflip copium) for how well Harris is doing (actually a coinflip). Harris is doing worse than the 2016 and 2020 Dem nominees, but largely because 2024 Biden was so awful, people are thinking she's doing much better than she is. You’re mostly right and I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Harris having a chance is a miracle because Biden was totally 100% going to lose. There was no reality where Biden was gonna win and that’s why Harris is the new candidate. Nothing short of 0% victory chance would have been enough to force Biden out. Would have been viewed as too risky unless he was tottttttally screwed. However, 2016 was basically the inflection point of presidential elections having an entirely new culture and dynamic. It was the first election where nothing was more important than social media. Polls were crazy wrong. They have been slowly becoming more accurate since then. They’re decent at this point. I fully expect Trump to outperform polling anyway. I am not doing victory laps yet. I won’t be until every news org calls it. But I do think it’s worth keeping in mind 2016 was extremely unique because it was the death of the old system of cultural influence.
Why do you think this? Are there certain pro-Trump realities that you think the polls are underestimating?
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On September 24 2024 08:37 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 07:37 Mohdoo wrote:On September 24 2024 05:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Probably worth remembering this is in the context of Harris polling several percent worse than 2020 Biden and even 2016 Clinton (with some exceptions).
Seems Harris has squeezed all she's going to get out of being "Not Biden", and polling in the battleground states seems to indicate she's coming up short on closing it out. In that context, Harris begging for a debate makes more sense as does Trump declining (beyond the fact that he'd most likely lose it as well).
If this "Alpha" strat is working so much better than what 2016 Clinton and 2020 Biden did, the polling simply doesn't support that belief.
I think people are mistaking how bad off 2024 Biden was (since Dems were pushing the coinflip copium) for how well Harris is doing (actually a coinflip). Harris is doing worse than the 2016 and 2020 Dem nominees, but largely because 2024 Biden was so awful, people are thinking she's doing much better than she is. You’re mostly right and I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Harris having a chance is a miracle because Biden was totally 100% going to lose. There was no reality where Biden was gonna win and that’s why Harris is the new candidate. Nothing short of 0% victory chance would have been enough to force Biden out. Would have been viewed as too risky unless he was tottttttally screwed. However, 2016 was basically the inflection point of presidential elections having an entirely new culture and dynamic. It was the first election where nothing was more important than social media. Polls were crazy wrong. They have been slowly becoming more accurate since then. They’re decent at this point. I fully expect Trump to outperform polling anyway. I am not doing victory laps yet. I won’t be until every news org calls it. But I do think it’s worth keeping in mind 2016 was extremely unique because it was the death of the old system of cultural influence. Why do you think this? Are there certain pro-Trump realities that you think the polls are underestimating?
Reasons Trump may perform better than polls predict:
1: Social media focusing on doom and anxiety farming has flipped "incumbent advantage" to "incumbent disadvantage". I think this was a major factor in both 2016 and 2020. I believe this will also gobble up a bunch of "undecided" pendulum voters who tend to see value in shaking things up.
2: Its easy to get a base fired up when they are the opposition. People get resentful and bitter about the other party ruling for 4 years. More people will get off the couch to vote when they are already very worked up and resentful of the current situation.
Reasons Trump may perform worse than polls predict:
1: Even though most republicans seem to agree Trump is making the right call avoiding another debate with Harris, they still feel deflated and disappointed seeing the obvious reality. Conservative psychology relies on reverence for authority but that same ideology can only label Trump as a coward. When Trump announced he wasn't going to do another debate, conservative communities were super disappointed and depressed about their immersion being broken.
2: Trump's entire campaign lacks confidence and they are desperately reaching for high risk plays. If these desperate plays continue to flop, I think it will continue to break the immersion of other conservatives. Many conservatives had a really hard time defending Trump and Vance going all-in on "immigrants are eating cats and dogs" and felt like it was a major blunder. I honestly think him and his team view this path as his only real path to victory. They are betting on a major messaging win that democrats struggle to respond to. Right now it feels like democrats are totally ready for any such event and it appears unlikely they'll stumble the way Clinton and Biden did. In short, I think Trump's chances of winning are probably at the highest they will be for the remainder of this election.
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On September 24 2024 08:30 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Do you think anyone not tired of his shit in 2020 is finally tired of his shit now? I honestly think that if his 4 years in office wasn't enough to turn you, then these last four years won't move that needle further. Sure, you hear of him being convicted and accused of all kinds of stuff, but you at LEAST equally hear of 'lawfare' etc. If you're willing to believe those waters are muddy, I don't see it turning you further against trump.
Not everyone who voted for Trump in 2020 was a die hard trumper. I think theres a good chance he loses turnout amongst some of those people. Maybe they just sitout. I dont see turnout being as high as 2020
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On September 24 2024 09:09 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 08:37 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 24 2024 07:37 Mohdoo wrote:On September 24 2024 05:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Probably worth remembering this is in the context of Harris polling several percent worse than 2020 Biden and even 2016 Clinton (with some exceptions).
Seems Harris has squeezed all she's going to get out of being "Not Biden", and polling in the battleground states seems to indicate she's coming up short on closing it out. In that context, Harris begging for a debate makes more sense as does Trump declining (beyond the fact that he'd most likely lose it as well).
If this "Alpha" strat is working so much better than what 2016 Clinton and 2020 Biden did, the polling simply doesn't support that belief.
I think people are mistaking how bad off 2024 Biden was (since Dems were pushing the coinflip copium) for how well Harris is doing (actually a coinflip). Harris is doing worse than the 2016 and 2020 Dem nominees, but largely because 2024 Biden was so awful, people are thinking she's doing much better than she is. You’re mostly right and I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Harris having a chance is a miracle because Biden was totally 100% going to lose. There was no reality where Biden was gonna win and that’s why Harris is the new candidate. Nothing short of 0% victory chance would have been enough to force Biden out. Would have been viewed as too risky unless he was tottttttally screwed. However, 2016 was basically the inflection point of presidential elections having an entirely new culture and dynamic. It was the first election where nothing was more important than social media. Polls were crazy wrong. They have been slowly becoming more accurate since then. They’re decent at this point. I fully expect Trump to outperform polling anyway. I am not doing victory laps yet. I won’t be until every news org calls it. But I do think it’s worth keeping in mind 2016 was extremely unique because it was the death of the old system of cultural influence. Why do you think this? Are there certain pro-Trump realities that you think the polls are underestimating? Reasons Trump may perform better than polls predict:1: Social media focusing on doom and anxiety farming has flipped "incumbent advantage" to "incumbent disadvantage". I think this was a major factor in both 2016 and 2020. I believe this will also gobble up a bunch of "undecided" pendulum voters who tend to see value in shaking things up. 2: Its easy to get a base fired up when they are the opposition. People get resentful and bitter about the other party ruling for 4 years. More people will get off the couch to vote when they are already very worked up and resentful of the current situation. Reasons Trump may perform worse than polls predict:1: Even though most republicans seem to agree Trump is making the right call avoiding another debate with Harris, they still feel deflated and disappointed seeing the obvious reality. Conservative psychology relies on reverence for authority but that same ideology can only label Trump as a coward. When Trump announced he wasn't going to do another debate, conservative communities were super disappointed and depressed about their immersion being broken. 2: Trump's entire campaign lacks confidence and they are desperately reaching for high risk plays. If these desperate plays continue to flop, I think it will continue to break the immersion of other conservatives. Many conservatives had a really hard time defending Trump and Vance going all-in on "immigrants are eating cats and dogs" and felt like it was a major blunder. I honestly think him and his team view this path as his only real path to victory. They are betting on a major messaging win that democrats struggle to respond to. Right now it feels like democrats are totally ready for any such event and it appears unlikely they'll stumble the way Clinton and Biden did. In short, I think Trump's chances of winning are probably at the highest they will be for the remainder of this election.
I think those are all reasonable takes. I have no way of knowing which of those will be most impactful, or least represented in the polls.
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On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Pretty much every poll has his approval underwater, but still at record highs. He's actually never been in as good a position to win, GH is right to point out that people here are getting out over their skis a bit. Jan 6th, not many people care about, Project 2025, as I keep saying, a silly thing to keep bringing up (and a sign of weakness). People still disapprove of Biden, think Trump did an OK job, and will forgive him for COVID (that last one is not unique to Trump). You can combine that with the obvious insincerity of Harris and her inability to articulate a reason why all the crazy left-wing things she said in 2020 she no longer believes, and people feel like Trump is a known quantity... and maybe life didn't suck with him around. Dems power players did manage to eject a feeble Biden, but they substituted in the second-worst candidate in his place. Trump can definitely win again.
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On September 24 2024 10:14 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Pretty much every poll has his approval underwater, but still at record highs. He's actually never been in as good a position to win, GH is right to point out that people here are getting out over their skis a bit. Jan 6th, not many people care about, Project 2025, as I keep saying, a silly thing to keep bringing up (and a sign of weakness). People still disapprove of Biden, think Trump did an OK job, and will forgive him for COVID (that last one is not unique to Trump). You can combine that with the obvious insincerity of Harris and her inability to articulate a reason why all the crazy left-wing things she said in 2020 she no longer believes, and people feel like Trump is a known quantity... and maybe life didn't suck with him around. Dems power players did manage to eject a feeble Biden, but they substituted in the second-worst candidate in his place. Trump can definitely win again.
It's absolutely insane to me that some people don't care about January 6th or Project 2025 or Trump's mishandling of covid, or just deny the existence/importance of all those things, imo.
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United States42509 Posts
Trump created the biggest single term increase in the deficit ever. People remember the handouts but not the borrowing.
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United States24664 Posts
On September 24 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 10:14 Introvert wrote:On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Pretty much every poll has his approval underwater, but still at record highs. He's actually never been in as good a position to win, GH is right to point out that people here are getting out over their skis a bit. Jan 6th, not many people care about, Project 2025, as I keep saying, a silly thing to keep bringing up (and a sign of weakness). People still disapprove of Biden, think Trump did an OK job, and will forgive him for COVID (that last one is not unique to Trump). You can combine that with the obvious insincerity of Harris and her inability to articulate a reason why all the crazy left-wing things she said in 2020 she no longer believes, and people feel like Trump is a known quantity... and maybe life didn't suck with him around. Dems power players did manage to eject a feeble Biden, but they substituted in the second-worst candidate in his place. Trump can definitely win again. It's absolutely insane to me that some people don't care about January 6th or Project 2025 or Trump's mishandling of covid, or just deny the existence/importance of all those things, imo.
Kind of reminds me of the movie the Big Short (or really, what actually happened) where the thing that should happen just doesn't happen because people aren't willing to accept the truth... they just keep doubling down into oblivion.
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On September 24 2024 11:36 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 24 2024 10:14 Introvert wrote:On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Pretty much every poll has his approval underwater, but still at record highs. He's actually never been in as good a position to win, GH is right to point out that people here are getting out over their skis a bit. Jan 6th, not many people care about, Project 2025, as I keep saying, a silly thing to keep bringing up (and a sign of weakness). People still disapprove of Biden, think Trump did an OK job, and will forgive him for COVID (that last one is not unique to Trump). You can combine that with the obvious insincerity of Harris and her inability to articulate a reason why all the crazy left-wing things she said in 2020 she no longer believes, and people feel like Trump is a known quantity... and maybe life didn't suck with him around. Dems power players did manage to eject a feeble Biden, but they substituted in the second-worst candidate in his place. Trump can definitely win again. It's absolutely insane to me that some people don't care about January 6th or Project 2025 or Trump's mishandling of covid, or just deny the existence/importance of all those things, imo. Kind of reminds me of the movie the Big Short (or really, what actually happened) where the thing that should happen just doesn't happen because people aren't willing to accept the truth... they just keep doubling down into oblivion.
And on that same note: "Why is [Trump] confessing!?" "He's not confessing... He's bragging." x.x
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On September 24 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 10:14 Introvert wrote:On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Pretty much every poll has his approval underwater, but still at record highs. He's actually never been in as good a position to win, GH is right to point out that people here are getting out over their skis a bit. Jan 6th, not many people care about, Project 2025, as I keep saying, a silly thing to keep bringing up (and a sign of weakness). People still disapprove of Biden, think Trump did an OK job, and will forgive him for COVID (that last one is not unique to Trump). You can combine that with the obvious insincerity of Harris and her inability to articulate a reason why all the crazy left-wing things she said in 2020 she no longer believes, and people feel like Trump is a known quantity... and maybe life didn't suck with him around. Dems power players did manage to eject a feeble Biden, but they substituted in the second-worst candidate in his place. Trump can definitely win again. It's absolutely insane to me that some people don't care about January 6th or Project 2025 or Trump's mishandling of covid, or just deny the existence/importance of all those things, imo.
Project 2025: messaging on this is so stupid. This proves there are still some Biden political operatives defining messaging strategy. This has boomer dem stupidity all over it. No one knows specific details and they just kinda understand it’s some kinda conservative strategy guide describing all their ideal scenarios. The messaging opportunities are the details. Describing specific immoral p2025 objectives would be so much more effective. We don’t need to list the whole damn thing lol. Hammer home all the reproductive stuff and education stuff. I think it’s a major mistake for democrat strategy to refer to it in entirety rather than snippets.
Jan6: long time ago and people are unaware of his specific involvement. It’s another topic that is easy to ignore when referenced in its entirety
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On September 24 2024 13:40 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2024 10:52 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 24 2024 10:14 Introvert wrote:On September 24 2024 07:56 Sadist wrote:
Does anyone think Trump will actually perform as well as 2020 either? Ya there are the die hards but im sure there are lots of voters who are also tired of his shit. Not to mention Jan 6th, Project 2025, etc.
Pretty much every poll has his approval underwater, but still at record highs. He's actually never been in as good a position to win, GH is right to point out that people here are getting out over their skis a bit. Jan 6th, not many people care about, Project 2025, as I keep saying, a silly thing to keep bringing up (and a sign of weakness). People still disapprove of Biden, think Trump did an OK job, and will forgive him for COVID (that last one is not unique to Trump). You can combine that with the obvious insincerity of Harris and her inability to articulate a reason why all the crazy left-wing things she said in 2020 she no longer believes, and people feel like Trump is a known quantity... and maybe life didn't suck with him around. Dems power players did manage to eject a feeble Biden, but they substituted in the second-worst candidate in his place. Trump can definitely win again. It's absolutely insane to me that some people don't care about January 6th or Project 2025 or Trump's mishandling of covid, or just deny the existence/importance of all those things, imo. Project 2025: messaging on this is so stupid. This proves there are still some Biden political operatives defining messaging strategy. This has boomer dem stupidity all over it. No one knows specific details and they just kinda understand it’s some kinda conservative strategy guide describing all their ideal scenarios. The messaging opportunities are the details. Describing specific immoral p2025 objectives would be so much more effective. We don’t need to list the whole damn thing lol. Hammer home all the reproductive stuff and education stuff. I think it’s a major mistake for democrat strategy to refer to it in entirety rather than snippets. Jan6: long time ago and people are unaware of his specific involvement. It’s another topic that is easy to ignore when referenced in its entirety
I agree that messaging by the Dems needs to be vastly improved. That's different than the underlying substance of January 6 and Project 2025 not being big deals.
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EPT
