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Bisutopia19299 Posts
On September 11 2024 20:48 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 20:42 BisuDagger wrote:On September 11 2024 20:34 Byo wrote:
I don't think voting Trump in hopes of this cabinet keeping him in check is sensible as we literally saw what happens with all the firings and revolving door. How many honest members do we still have that "stuck it out" for an extra 4?years just to battle it out for another 4. Sounds fairy taleish. I personally don't believe voting for his cabinet is reasonable, but that's the argument I here from other conservatives trying to justify voting for him even if they don't like him. As a fiscal conservative you should be voting Democrat. Look at the budget deficits from the last however many Presidents and notice how they go up under Republicans and come down under Democrats.
I agree lol. Kamala could have a very similar performance to Clinton in regards to tax policy.
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On September 11 2024 21:12 KwarK wrote:
People are almost certainly going to blame Kamala when the Trump middle class tax increases hit in 2025. Precisely as the Republicans envisioned when they wrote it.
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On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach?
I remember Biden vs Trump was a close call initially, but shortly before the elections some people had deeper regional insight and were 100% convinced that he was going to win, while others were still predicting a close race. It turned out to be significantly in Biden's favor, which only became clear towards the very end of the elections when suddenly lots of fresh votes for Biden appeared (this immediately spurred claims of election interference by Trump voters).
Trump was doing ok in the polls back then. He's not doing poorly this time (edit: I meant to delete the word "not"), while Kamala has risen very dramatically and clearly overtaken Trump in just about every aspect. People are unsure about Kamala, but they really really dislike Trump.
So while I can't give exact numbers, I can say these upcoming elections look even better than the ones before did for Biden. That's why I'm so convinced that Trump has no chance.
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On September 11 2024 22:15 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? I remember Biden vs Trump was a close call initially, but shortly before the elections some people had deeper regional insight and were 100% convinced that he was going to win, while others were still predicting a close race. It turned out to be significantly in Biden's favor, which only became clear towards the very end of the elections when suddenly lots of fresh votes for Biden appeared (this immediately spurred claims of election interference by Trump voters). Trump was doing ok in the polls back then. He's not doing poorly this time, while Kamala has risen very dramatically and clearly overtaken Trump in just about every aspect. People are unsure about Kamala, but they really really dislike Trump. So while I can't give exact numbers, I can say these upcoming elections look even better than the ones before did for Biden. That's why I'm so convinced that Trump has no chance. Significantly in Biden's favour?
Trump lost by ~43.000 votes.
The popular vote gap can be a billion votes, it doesn't matter in the US. 43k votes in the right states and Trump would have been re-elected.
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On September 11 2024 22:33 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 22:15 Magic Powers wrote:On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? I remember Biden vs Trump was a close call initially, but shortly before the elections some people had deeper regional insight and were 100% convinced that he was going to win, while others were still predicting a close race. It turned out to be significantly in Biden's favor, which only became clear towards the very end of the elections when suddenly lots of fresh votes for Biden appeared (this immediately spurred claims of election interference by Trump voters). Trump was doing ok in the polls back then. He's not doing poorly this time, while Kamala has risen very dramatically and clearly overtaken Trump in just about every aspect. People are unsure about Kamala, but they really really dislike Trump. So while I can't give exact numbers, I can say these upcoming elections look even better than the ones before did for Biden. That's why I'm so convinced that Trump has no chance. Significantly in Biden's favour? Trump lost by ~43.000 votes. The popular vote gap can be a billion votes, it doesn't matter in the US. 43k votes in the right states and Trump would have been re-elected.
Those are just the total votes, which is why people - including myself - thought it would be extremely close. People with deeper regional insight predicted a clear victory for Biden when everyone else was still unsure. There was one individual in particular (some person online, I'm no longer in that space) I spoke to during the election and I asked them how they could be so confident of a Biden victory, and they just said it was obvious due to the overall voter trend. I can't remember what those regions were, but if we look at the live map I'm sure I can show the clear Biden favored outcome towards the end of the election.
Anyway, the point I'm making is that Kamala has even better odds than Biden did previously. It's completely over for Trump.
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On September 11 2024 22:15 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? I remember Biden vs Trump was a close call initially, but shortly before the elections some people had deeper regional insight and were 100% convinced that he was going to win, while others were still predicting a close race. It turned out to be significantly in Biden's favor, which only became clear towards the very end of the elections when suddenly lots of fresh votes for Biden appeared (this immediately spurred claims of election interference by Trump voters). Trump was doing ok in the polls back then. He's not doing poorly this time, while Kamala has risen very dramatically and clearly overtaken Trump in just about every aspect. People are unsure about Kamala, but they really really dislike Trump. So while I can't give exact numbers, I can say these upcoming elections look even better than the ones before did for Biden. That's why I'm so convinced that Trump has no chance.
I'm not as confident as you are, but it's possible for most/all of the swing states to fall in favor of Harris.
Interestingly enough, North Carolina is in play. Trump won North Carolina in both 2020 and 2016, but polls show that Harris and Trump are pretty much tied in that state. If Trump actually loses NC, then Harris doesn't even need PA anymore. (They have roughly the same number of electoral votes: PA = 19, NC = 16, MI = 15, WI = 10.)
The complete list of electoral vote allocations by state: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/allocation
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On September 11 2024 22:41 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 22:33 Gorsameth wrote:On September 11 2024 22:15 Magic Powers wrote:On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? I remember Biden vs Trump was a close call initially, but shortly before the elections some people had deeper regional insight and were 100% convinced that he was going to win, while others were still predicting a close race. It turned out to be significantly in Biden's favor, which only became clear towards the very end of the elections when suddenly lots of fresh votes for Biden appeared (this immediately spurred claims of election interference by Trump voters). Trump was doing ok in the polls back then. He's not doing poorly this time, while Kamala has risen very dramatically and clearly overtaken Trump in just about every aspect. People are unsure about Kamala, but they really really dislike Trump. So while I can't give exact numbers, I can say these upcoming elections look even better than the ones before did for Biden. That's why I'm so convinced that Trump has no chance. Significantly in Biden's favour? Trump lost by ~43.000 votes. The popular vote gap can be a billion votes, it doesn't matter in the US. 43k votes in the right states and Trump would have been re-elected. Those are just the total votes, which is why people - including myself - thought it would be extremely close. People with deeper regional insight predicted a clear victory for Biden when everyone else was still unsure. There was one individual in particular (some person online, I'm no longer in that space) I spoke to during the election and I asked them how they could be so confident of a Biden victory, and they just said it was obvious due to the overall voter trend. I can't remember what those regions were, but if we look at the live map I'm sure I can show the clear Biden favored outcome towards the end of the election. Anyway, the point I'm making is that Kamala has even better odds than Biden did previously. It's completely over for Trump.
GH has made a compelling case that outlines why Harris might not have "better odds than Biden did previously" (assuming you're referring to 2020 Biden, and not 2024 Biden two months ago), according to the comparison of 2020 polling trends to 2024 polling trends.
Your last sentence is not supported by the data. Anyone could assert "It's completely over for Trump" or "It's completely over for Harris" and maybe they'll be right, but that level of confidence two months before the election is unjustified imo.
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On September 11 2024 21:16 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 20:48 Gorsameth wrote:On September 11 2024 20:42 BisuDagger wrote:On September 11 2024 20:34 Byo wrote:
I don't think voting Trump in hopes of this cabinet keeping him in check is sensible as we literally saw what happens with all the firings and revolving door. How many honest members do we still have that "stuck it out" for an extra 4?years just to battle it out for another 4. Sounds fairy taleish. I personally don't believe voting for his cabinet is reasonable, but that's the argument I here from other conservatives trying to justify voting for him even if they don't like him. As a fiscal conservative you should be voting Democrat. Look at the budget deficits from the last however many Presidents and notice how they go up under Republicans and come down under Democrats. I agree lol. Kamala could have a very similar performance to Clinton in regards to tax policy.
Fiscal policy largely doesn't connect to the president anymore except insofar as any party who wants to be president can't go too crazy on spending by themselves, or they'll suffer backlash at the top of the ticket. But the president doesn't control budgets. That's Congress. And especially recently the uniparty has realized they can both just agree with each other to spend other people's money on the things each other wants, with no repercussions because no single person or side is culpable so it's like the US's finances are nobody's fault at all, just some weird quirk of nature like the weather. Which is not true of course, it's deliberate gutting of the middle class, of US manufacturing, and of labor, to benefit corporatists and rich elites (Democrats are now 70% of US wealth). The only single viable force against this is Drumpf and that's why he has the opposition of everyone from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney.
You could elect Ron Paul and he couldn't actually stop Congress from printing and spending $50 trillion.
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United States43222 Posts
On September 11 2024 23:09 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 21:16 BisuDagger wrote:On September 11 2024 20:48 Gorsameth wrote:On September 11 2024 20:42 BisuDagger wrote:On September 11 2024 20:34 Byo wrote:
I don't think voting Trump in hopes of this cabinet keeping him in check is sensible as we literally saw what happens with all the firings and revolving door. How many honest members do we still have that "stuck it out" for an extra 4?years just to battle it out for another 4. Sounds fairy taleish. I personally don't believe voting for his cabinet is reasonable, but that's the argument I here from other conservatives trying to justify voting for him even if they don't like him. As a fiscal conservative you should be voting Democrat. Look at the budget deficits from the last however many Presidents and notice how they go up under Republicans and come down under Democrats. I agree lol. Kamala could have a very similar performance to Clinton in regards to tax policy. Fiscal policy largely doesn't connect to the president anymore except insofar as any party who wants to be president can't go too crazy on spending by themselves, or they'll suffer backlash at the top of the ticket. But the president doesn't control budgets. That's Congress. And especially recently the uniparty has realized they can both just agree with each other to spend other people's money on the things each other wants, with no repercussions because no single person or side is culpable so it's like the US's finances are nobody's fault at all, just some weird quirk of nature like the weather. Which is not true of course, it's deliberate gutting of the middle class, of US manufacturing, and of labor, to benefit corporatists and rich elites (Democrats are now 70% of US wealth). The only single viable force against this is Drumpf and that's why he has the opposition of everyone from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney.You could elect Ron Paul and he couldn't actually stop Congress from printing and spending $50 trillion.
Trump is not the savior of US manufacturing. Trump is the guy who blew up the farmers’ markets for their goods then printed $12b to reimburse them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_administration_farmer_bailouts
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On September 11 2024 21:43 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 21:12 KwarK wrote:
People are almost certainly going to blame Kamala when the Trump middle class tax increases hit in 2025. Precisely as the Republicans envisioned when they wrote it.
How does this work, exactly? Can't it be undone or reversed or vetoed or voted down during the next (or current!) president or by the new Congress in 2025? Why is it predestined to take effect?
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The tax cuts sunset by operation of the 2017 act that enacted them. New legislation must be passed to stop that from occurring.
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United States43222 Posts
On September 12 2024 00:05 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 21:43 Gorsameth wrote:On September 11 2024 21:12 KwarK wrote:
People are almost certainly going to blame Kamala when the Trump middle class tax increases hit in 2025. Precisely as the Republicans envisioned when they wrote it. How does this work, exactly? Can't it be undone or reversed or vetoed or voted down during the next (or current!) president or by the new Congress in 2025? Why is it predestined to take effect?
To get the upper class tax cuts through they had to make it revenue neutral. To make it revenue neutral they put an expiration on the middle class tax cuts dated 2025 on the assumption Trump was the incumbent and would win 2020 (which he probably would have without COVID and his pro spreading stance).
Changing it would require a new tax act which would also have to be revenue neutral which would need tax increases on someone else which the Republicans planned to pin on the Democrats. It’s an excellent piece of Republican electoral fuckery against the American working public.
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Got it. Thanks for the explanations, farv and KwarK 
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United States10236 Posts
On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach?
Hi, election guy back again.
The real answer to this is, well it depends. Harris has actually shown some ground gained in North Carolina (and winning NC would spell disaster for the other states on the board like the Sun Belt). In reality, at the moment it's a coin flip on whether Harris will win the Sun Belt like Biden did. I have her favored in the Rust Belt. I think we're probably looking around the same electoral votes honestly. She might lose Georgia for North Carolina if anything, but I think with abortion being such a hot issue in Arizona, she's like to hold that state along with Nevada will still holding the Rust Belt. But that's just my inclinations right now.
With regards to polls, it's not that Trump isn't performing well in them, in fact, he hasn't really LOST ground in the polls, but Harris has continued to eat into the undecided voters. For example, earlier in the race between Trump and Biden/Harris, he was around 47/48% while Biden/Harris were sort of stuck at the 44/45% in a lot of key states. Now, Harris has pulled ahead and polls are looking more like 48% Trump, 49% Harris. So Trump's support in independents and swing voters hasn't really improved, he's locked his base up, while Harris and the Dems have been going hard to fight for those middle voters who play the most crucial role in the election.
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On September 12 2024 01:05 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? Hi, election guy back again. The real answer to this is, well it depends. Harris has actually shown some ground gained in North Carolina (and winning NC would spell disaster for the other states on the board like the Sun Belt). In reality, at the moment it's a coin flip on whether Harris will win the Sun Belt like Biden did. I have her favored in the Rust Belt. I think we're probably looking around the same electoral votes honestly. She might lose Georgia for North Carolina if anything, but I think with abortion being such a hot issue in Arizona, she's like to hold that state along with Nevada will still holding the Rust Belt. But that's just my inclinations right now. With regards to polls, it's not that Trump isn't performing well in them, in fact, he hasn't really LOST ground in the polls, but Harris has continued to eat into the undecided voters. For example, earlier in the race between Trump and Biden/Harris, he was around 47/48% while Biden/Harris were sort of stuck at the 44/45% in a lot of key states. Now, Harris has pulled ahead and polls are looking more like 48% Trump, 49% Harris. So Trump's support in independents and swing voters hasn't really improved, he's locked his base up, while Harris and the Dems have been going hard to fight for those middle voters who play the most crucial role in the election.
I like that analysis, and I think it makes a lot of sense. There aren't many Republicans who have supported Trump for a decade and are now, suddenly, switching to Harris between August 2024 and September 2024 (why would they? because of Dick Cheney? lol). Trump's not really losing ground, but Harris is slightly gaining ground, because there is still a little more ground up for grabs. Hopefully, Trump doesn't gain the remainder of the up-for-grabs ground.
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Bisutopia19299 Posts
On September 12 2024 01:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2024 01:05 FlaShFTW wrote:On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? Hi, election guy back again. The real answer to this is, well it depends. Harris has actually shown some ground gained in North Carolina (and winning NC would spell disaster for the other states on the board like the Sun Belt). In reality, at the moment it's a coin flip on whether Harris will win the Sun Belt like Biden did. I have her favored in the Rust Belt. I think we're probably looking around the same electoral votes honestly. She might lose Georgia for North Carolina if anything, but I think with abortion being such a hot issue in Arizona, she's like to hold that state along with Nevada will still holding the Rust Belt. But that's just my inclinations right now. With regards to polls, it's not that Trump isn't performing well in them, in fact, he hasn't really LOST ground in the polls, but Harris has continued to eat into the undecided voters. For example, earlier in the race between Trump and Biden/Harris, he was around 47/48% while Biden/Harris were sort of stuck at the 44/45% in a lot of key states. Now, Harris has pulled ahead and polls are looking more like 48% Trump, 49% Harris. So Trump's support in independents and swing voters hasn't really improved, he's locked his base up, while Harris and the Dems have been going hard to fight for those middle voters who play the most crucial role in the election. I like that analysis, and I think it makes a lot of sense. There aren't many Republicans who have supported Trump for a decade and are now, suddenly, switching to Harris between August 2024 and September 2024 (why would they? because of Dick Cheney? lol). Trump's not really losing ground, but Harris is slightly gaining ground, because there is still a little more ground up for grabs. Hopefully, Trump doesn't gain the remainder of the up-for-grabs ground.
You are wrong about this though. In the Jacksonville, Fl area which I reside, we are a purple area. Lots of conservatives I know would outright refuse to vote for Biden no matter what are now willing to vote for Kamala. We voted for a dem mayor after having a fantastic republican mayor that ran out of terms he can run, because the new republican candidate was a terrible human being. There seem to be a lot of open minded people in this region of the state.
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Its helpful to remember a lot of people don't have the full picture of the candidates and a lot of Trumps appeal is based on how much you're willing to suspend your disbelief of the things he says hes going to do that you like vs the things you don't like.
He wants to build the wall, but no one expects him to be held accountable for how much that costs vs how effective that would be to do anything. He wants to deport millions of people but also doesn't say where exactly he is going to deport them to or how they're going to be treated at the concentration camps before they're deported there. He wants to lower the cost of the family by a lot but hes going to do this by making everything more expensive with tariffs on the goods they buy while ignoring the counter tariffs other nations will implement in response. Everyone wants to balance the budget by cutting spending but when it comes to explaining what the spending is you want to cut comes it becomes hard to sell. Its easy to convince people that the equivalent to abortion bans that are killing women is the draft, its a lot less sexy to explain to them that the law for men is to fill out a form for a plan everyone agrees was terrible decades ago and never wants to repeat.
Everything you need to understand trump comes from the line he gave when he let himself get nailed down on the healthcare plan hes promised for a decade. He doesn't have a plan or any solutions just the concepts of a plan. People love the concepts for a plan, they never want to hear what the actual plan is.
On September 11 2024 18:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 11 2024 12:30 Sermokala wrote:
Biggest win on the night was harris picking up a public endorsement of Taylor swift right after. Wasn't 100% guaranteed this early or at all with her dating her conservative NFL boyfriend. The irony is that Taylor Swift's endorsement post on Instagram made it clear that the reason why she felt it was important to voice her opinion is because Donald Trump had been sharing fake, AI-generated images of Swift and her fans "supporting" Trump. Anti-fans of Swift complain about how she likes the attention, but Swift may have never actually gone public with her endorsement of Harris and Walz if Trump hadn't lied about Swift and her community in the first place.
I think its more clear that shes confident that harris is actually going to win after this debate. She didn't come out for Biden or start to retcon her political beliefs until Biden was far in the lead during the last election. People talk about betting markets but theres no one more calculating than taylor swift with what shes doing right now.
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On September 12 2024 02:57 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2024 01:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 12 2024 01:05 FlaShFTW wrote:On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? Hi, election guy back again. The real answer to this is, well it depends. Harris has actually shown some ground gained in North Carolina (and winning NC would spell disaster for the other states on the board like the Sun Belt). In reality, at the moment it's a coin flip on whether Harris will win the Sun Belt like Biden did. I have her favored in the Rust Belt. I think we're probably looking around the same electoral votes honestly. She might lose Georgia for North Carolina if anything, but I think with abortion being such a hot issue in Arizona, she's like to hold that state along with Nevada will still holding the Rust Belt. But that's just my inclinations right now. With regards to polls, it's not that Trump isn't performing well in them, in fact, he hasn't really LOST ground in the polls, but Harris has continued to eat into the undecided voters. For example, earlier in the race between Trump and Biden/Harris, he was around 47/48% while Biden/Harris were sort of stuck at the 44/45% in a lot of key states. Now, Harris has pulled ahead and polls are looking more like 48% Trump, 49% Harris. So Trump's support in independents and swing voters hasn't really improved, he's locked his base up, while Harris and the Dems have been going hard to fight for those middle voters who play the most crucial role in the election. I like that analysis, and I think it makes a lot of sense. There aren't many Republicans who have supported Trump for a decade and are now, suddenly, switching to Harris between August 2024 and September 2024 (why would they? because of Dick Cheney? lol). Trump's not really losing ground, but Harris is slightly gaining ground, because there is still a little more ground up for grabs. Hopefully, Trump doesn't gain the remainder of the up-for-grabs ground. You are wrong about this though. In the Jacksonville, Fl area which I reside, we are a purple area. Lots of conservatives I know would outright refuse to vote for Biden no matter what are now willing to vote for Kamala. We voted for a dem mayor after having a fantastic republican mayor that ran out of terms he can run, because the new republican candidate was a terrible human being. There seem to be a lot of open minded people in this region of the state.
That's interesting! Florida doesn't seem to be particularly close ( https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-harris ) but it would be pretty sweet if Harris somehow won your state anyway.
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Bisutopia19299 Posts
On September 12 2024 03:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2024 02:57 BisuDagger wrote:On September 12 2024 01:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 12 2024 01:05 FlaShFTW wrote:On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? Hi, election guy back again. The real answer to this is, well it depends. Harris has actually shown some ground gained in North Carolina (and winning NC would spell disaster for the other states on the board like the Sun Belt). In reality, at the moment it's a coin flip on whether Harris will win the Sun Belt like Biden did. I have her favored in the Rust Belt. I think we're probably looking around the same electoral votes honestly. She might lose Georgia for North Carolina if anything, but I think with abortion being such a hot issue in Arizona, she's like to hold that state along with Nevada will still holding the Rust Belt. But that's just my inclinations right now. With regards to polls, it's not that Trump isn't performing well in them, in fact, he hasn't really LOST ground in the polls, but Harris has continued to eat into the undecided voters. For example, earlier in the race between Trump and Biden/Harris, he was around 47/48% while Biden/Harris were sort of stuck at the 44/45% in a lot of key states. Now, Harris has pulled ahead and polls are looking more like 48% Trump, 49% Harris. So Trump's support in independents and swing voters hasn't really improved, he's locked his base up, while Harris and the Dems have been going hard to fight for those middle voters who play the most crucial role in the election. I like that analysis, and I think it makes a lot of sense. There aren't many Republicans who have supported Trump for a decade and are now, suddenly, switching to Harris between August 2024 and September 2024 (why would they? because of Dick Cheney? lol). Trump's not really losing ground, but Harris is slightly gaining ground, because there is still a little more ground up for grabs. Hopefully, Trump doesn't gain the remainder of the up-for-grabs ground. You are wrong about this though. In the Jacksonville, Fl area which I reside, we are a purple area. Lots of conservatives I know would outright refuse to vote for Biden no matter what are now willing to vote for Kamala. We voted for a dem mayor after having a fantastic republican mayor that ran out of terms he can run, because the new republican candidate was a terrible human being. There seem to be a lot of open minded people in this region of the state. That's interesting! Florida doesn't seem to be particularly close ( https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-harris ) but it would be pretty sweet if Harris somehow won your state anyway.
On our local news they sited a poll where she had a 4 point lead in Duval/Clay County.
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United States10236 Posts
On September 12 2024 03:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2024 02:57 BisuDagger wrote:On September 12 2024 01:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 12 2024 01:05 FlaShFTW wrote:On September 11 2024 21:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On September 11 2024 20:55 Magic Powers wrote:
Trump lost this debate, not so much because Kamala necessarily gained further ground, but because he failed to give hope to his supporters. All of his talking points are tired. The Republican successes came from SCOTUS - which was just a lucky coincidence, it cannot be repeated. He failed to give women hope, so they won't vote for him any more now than they did before. If anything they're rapidly turning against him as reality sinks in after years of oppression. Trump has no grand plan for women other than to oppress them further, and they're feeling it. No better future, no better life. And - political differences aside - husbands tend to side with their wives, because why wouldn't they? Marriage lasts forever, but political ideology can be discarded almost at a whim. Trump is losing on that front. He also lost more of the black vote. The white male demographic? They're undecided.
This is why this debate favored Kamala. She's rising in the polls, and Trump completely failed to change anything about his own trajectory.
I'm now firmly predicting a landslide victory for Kamala. Trump is dunzo. Do you think Harris will earn more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 (he received 306)? What number do you think Harris will reach? Hi, election guy back again. The real answer to this is, well it depends. Harris has actually shown some ground gained in North Carolina (and winning NC would spell disaster for the other states on the board like the Sun Belt). In reality, at the moment it's a coin flip on whether Harris will win the Sun Belt like Biden did. I have her favored in the Rust Belt. I think we're probably looking around the same electoral votes honestly. She might lose Georgia for North Carolina if anything, but I think with abortion being such a hot issue in Arizona, she's like to hold that state along with Nevada will still holding the Rust Belt. But that's just my inclinations right now. With regards to polls, it's not that Trump isn't performing well in them, in fact, he hasn't really LOST ground in the polls, but Harris has continued to eat into the undecided voters. For example, earlier in the race between Trump and Biden/Harris, he was around 47/48% while Biden/Harris were sort of stuck at the 44/45% in a lot of key states. Now, Harris has pulled ahead and polls are looking more like 48% Trump, 49% Harris. So Trump's support in independents and swing voters hasn't really improved, he's locked his base up, while Harris and the Dems have been going hard to fight for those middle voters who play the most crucial role in the election. I like that analysis, and I think it makes a lot of sense. There aren't many Republicans who have supported Trump for a decade and are now, suddenly, switching to Harris between August 2024 and September 2024 (why would they? because of Dick Cheney? lol). Trump's not really losing ground, but Harris is slightly gaining ground, because there is still a little more ground up for grabs. Hopefully, Trump doesn't gain the remainder of the up-for-grabs ground. You are wrong about this though. In the Jacksonville, Fl area which I reside, we are a purple area. Lots of conservatives I know would outright refuse to vote for Biden no matter what are now willing to vote for Kamala. We voted for a dem mayor after having a fantastic republican mayor that ran out of terms he can run, because the new republican candidate was a terrible human being. There seem to be a lot of open minded people in this region of the state. That's interesting! Florida doesn't seem to be particularly close ( https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-harris ) but it would be pretty sweet if Harris somehow won your state anyway.
Florida is for sure still in lean/likely R territory (I'd guess around 5-6 points at the moment) but it's not entirely out of play just yet. I'm honestly very curious how the whole illegal immigrants eating pets line is going to go down with a lot of the hispanic immigrant population in Florida considering that Trump and Republicans were targetting the Haitians (I know there's not entirely overlap between Haitians and Cubans for example but it'll be interesting to see if there's any backlash to those comments).
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