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United States43927 Posts
On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen.
But you’re confident that it completed its mission, despite not having access to knowledge about what it’s mission was. Does that not strike you as an unusual stance?
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On February 05 2023 08:15 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen. But you’re confident that it completed its mission, despite not having access to knowledge about what it’s mission was. Does that not strike you as an unusual stance?
What?
I believe that's what happened. That is my opinion. Am I sure? No.
Can you say you are sure nothing bad has happened?
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On February 05 2023 08:20 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:15 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen. But you’re confident that it completed its mission, despite not having access to knowledge about what it’s mission was. Does that not strike you as an unusual stance? What? I believe that's what happened. That is my opinion. Am I sure? No. Can you say you are sure nothing bad has happened? The mere fact that it wasn't shot down before makes it infinitely more likely that the US military and intelligence decided it wasn't doing anything interesting compared to the opposite.
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On February 05 2023 08:22 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:20 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 08:15 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen. But you’re confident that it completed its mission, despite not having access to knowledge about what it’s mission was. Does that not strike you as an unusual stance? What? I believe that's what happened. That is my opinion. Am I sure? No. Can you say you are sure nothing bad has happened? The mere fact that it wasn't shot down before makes it infinitely more likely that the US military and intelligence decided it wasn't doing anything interesting compared to the opposite.
Even were it so, the mere fact that China can deploy balloons into the US and have it fly across the entire country is a political victory for the Chinese already. Appearances matter.
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On February 05 2023 08:27 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:22 Gorsameth wrote:On February 05 2023 08:20 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 08:15 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen. But you’re confident that it completed its mission, despite not having access to knowledge about what it’s mission was. Does that not strike you as an unusual stance? What? I believe that's what happened. That is my opinion. Am I sure? No. Can you say you are sure nothing bad has happened? The mere fact that it wasn't shot down before makes it infinitely more likely that the US military and intelligence decided it wasn't doing anything interesting compared to the opposite. Even were it so, the mere fact that China can deploy balloons into the US and have it fly across the entire country is a political victory for the Chinese already. Appearances matter. Yes, China having discovered the weather balloon sure is a great victory for them...
This just deserves a facepalm reaction.
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On February 05 2023 08:08 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:03 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 07:49 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 07:42 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 07:25 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 06:47 gobbledydook wrote:
Sure, shoot it down after it's done collecting data and leaving.
Or like, shoot it down before it has a chance to perform its mission? What was its mission? Do you think the US didn't take proper precautions when they were made aware of its presence in Canada before it entered US airspace? Why are you complaining about the US not shooting it down until now and not complaining about Canada not shooting it down in the Canada politics thread? How am I supposed to take your complaint seriously when you don't care about the one flying in South America and you didn't care about this one when it was flying over Canada? How am I not supposed to assume this is bad faith faux outrage based on your behavior? What is this argument? People have to care equally about espionage on other countries as they do espionage on the US for you to take them seriously? It's just really convenient the conservative posters on here never seem to care about the same things happening outside the US. How do I take this shit seriously when there is no consistency applied? Do the left-wing posters in the thread care as much about abortion rights or gun control in Latin America as they do the US? The balloon being in Canada first was posted in this thread. If we talked about a shooting in El Paso and then someone posted about how the shooting actually started in Juarez and then carried on into El Paso it would be very weird if no one from the left commented on it. But no one from the right seemed interested in engaging in that fact or questioning why the Canadian government let it be the US' problem. Weird.
I guess we should make a politics thread for every country these balloons fly over so we can debate whether each country should shoot the balloons down
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On February 05 2023 08:11 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen. Exactly. You don't know why the balloon is there. You don't know why our military left it in the air as long as they did. You don't know if the balloon retrieved anything useful. You don't know why you're upset.
Pretty safe to assume that if debris fell on someone's house and killed them it would have turned a slow news day story into a month long clown show
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On February 05 2023 08:34 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:08 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 08:03 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 07:49 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 07:42 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 07:25 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 06:47 gobbledydook wrote:
Sure, shoot it down after it's done collecting data and leaving.
Or like, shoot it down before it has a chance to perform its mission? What was its mission? Do you think the US didn't take proper precautions when they were made aware of its presence in Canada before it entered US airspace? Why are you complaining about the US not shooting it down until now and not complaining about Canada not shooting it down in the Canada politics thread? How am I supposed to take your complaint seriously when you don't care about the one flying in South America and you didn't care about this one when it was flying over Canada? How am I not supposed to assume this is bad faith faux outrage based on your behavior? What is this argument? People have to care equally about espionage on other countries as they do espionage on the US for you to take them seriously? It's just really convenient the conservative posters on here never seem to care about the same things happening outside the US. How do I take this shit seriously when there is no consistency applied? Do the left-wing posters in the thread care as much about abortion rights or gun control in Latin America as they do the US? The balloon being in Canada first was posted in this thread. If we talked about a shooting in El Paso and then someone posted about how the shooting actually started in Juarez and then carried on into El Paso it would be very weird if no one from the left commented on it. But no one from the right seemed interested in engaging in that fact or questioning why the Canadian government let it be the US' problem. Weird. I guess we should make a politics thread for every country these balloons fly over so we can debate whether each country should shoot the balloons down
Again, it being in Canada was posted in this thread. If gobbledydook cared so much about administrations' responses to the balloon, he could have called out the Canadian response here and still made it relevant to the thread, since the balloon became the US' problem. Weird that he didn't though.
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We’re going to look like a bunch of fools if we don’t send a weather balloon back at them immediately.
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On February 05 2023 08:37 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:34 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 08:08 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 08:03 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 07:49 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 07:42 BlackJack wrote:On February 05 2023 07:25 StasisField wrote:On February 05 2023 06:47 gobbledydook wrote:
Sure, shoot it down after it's done collecting data and leaving.
Or like, shoot it down before it has a chance to perform its mission? What was its mission? Do you think the US didn't take proper precautions when they were made aware of its presence in Canada before it entered US airspace? Why are you complaining about the US not shooting it down until now and not complaining about Canada not shooting it down in the Canada politics thread? How am I supposed to take your complaint seriously when you don't care about the one flying in South America and you didn't care about this one when it was flying over Canada? How am I not supposed to assume this is bad faith faux outrage based on your behavior? What is this argument? People have to care equally about espionage on other countries as they do espionage on the US for you to take them seriously? It's just really convenient the conservative posters on here never seem to care about the same things happening outside the US. How do I take this shit seriously when there is no consistency applied? Do the left-wing posters in the thread care as much about abortion rights or gun control in Latin America as they do the US? The balloon being in Canada first was posted in this thread. If we talked about a shooting in El Paso and then someone posted about how the shooting actually started in Juarez and then carried on into El Paso it would be very weird if no one from the left commented on it. But no one from the right seemed interested in engaging in that fact or questioning why the Canadian government let it be the US' problem. Weird. I guess we should make a politics thread for every country these balloons fly over so we can debate whether each country should shoot the balloons down Again, it being in Canada was posted in this thread. If gobbledydook cared so much about administrations' responses to the balloon, he could have called out the Canadian response here and still made it relevant to the thread, since the balloon became the US' problem. Weird that he didn't though.
Ah, the benefit of hindsight.
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United States43927 Posts
On February 05 2023 08:20 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:15 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 08:09 gobbledydook wrote:On February 05 2023 07:50 KwarK wrote:On February 05 2023 07:44 gobbledydook wrote:
In any case the mission is two fold:
1. See how the Americans respond to an intruding threat militarily. Including what assets are activated, how they track the threat, what action they take, what weapons they use to destroy it, and so on. Also, collect information using the onboard sensors, including information related to military bases.
2. See how the Americans respond politically.
I would argue that in both cases leaving the balloon flying across the entire U.S. is detrimental to U.S. interests. It lets the Chinese collect more data along its entire trip for point 1, and it shows American weakness for point 2. Can you provide the classified PRC mission briefing documents that you have access to? No, and that's a ridiculous argument. All of us are analysing this as laymen. But you’re confident that it completed its mission, despite not having access to knowledge about what it’s mission was. Does that not strike you as an unusual stance? What? I believe that's what happened. That is my opinion. Am I sure? No. Can you say you are sure nothing bad has happened?
I can’t say for sure that nothing bad has happened but you will note that I have not made that assertion. I am not saying your conclusion must be wrong, I’m saying it is wholly unsupported and contrary to the conclusions of the people with the best available information.
My point is that the people who actually made the decision have access to all this information that you lack. They have spies within the PRC military, they know the relative differences in capabilities between Chinese spy satellites and balloon mounted cameras, they know what the variables involved. This is not an area in which laypeople are remotely qualified to opine. Anyone confidently opining must be unaware of their own ignorance to a truly embarrassing degree.
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I don't care about Canada's response, because I don't care about Canadian politics. See?
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Well Biden says he ordered it to be shot down ASAP and the military decided to wait until it was over the ocean. So gobbledygook and Biden seem to be in agreement with each other over the correct course of action.
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On February 05 2023 08:49 Djabanete wrote:
We’re going to look like a bunch of fools if we don’t send a weather balloon back at them immediately.
Right, because the current pinnacle of military prowess is balloons, and it is imperative that we show the Chinese that we have balloons too!
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On February 05 2023 17:30 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 08:49 Djabanete wrote:
We’re going to look like a bunch of fools if we don’t send a weather balloon back at them immediately. Right, because the current pinnacle of military prowess is balloons, and it is imperative that we show the Chinese that we have balloons too!
Imagine if instead of cameras, they had someone throwing bombs on that balloon. They could bomb any house in any city, and there would be nothing anyone could do to prevent it!
(Late 19th century military fears intesify)
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It's funny how the more neutral observers from the German media claim what a disaster for the Chinese pr this has been, while the American conservatives are all yelling that this somehow made the US look weak. 😁
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On February 05 2023 17:36 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2023 17:30 Acrofales wrote:On February 05 2023 08:49 Djabanete wrote:
We’re going to look like a bunch of fools if we don’t send a weather balloon back at them immediately. Right, because the current pinnacle of military prowess is balloons, and it is imperative that we show the Chinese that we have balloons too! Imagine if instead of cameras, they had someone throwing bombs on that balloon. They could bomb any house in any city, and there would be nothing anyone could do to prevent it! (Late 19th century military fears intesify)
Japan launched 9,300 balloon bombs during WW2 with hopes of the jet stream carrying them to US forests and starting forest fires. One of them killed 5 students and an adult when they happened upon an exploded bomb while out on a picnic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb
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On February 05 2023 19:03 Broetchenholer wrote:
It's funny how the more neutral observers from the German media claim what a disaster for the Chinese pr this has been, while the American conservatives are all yelling that this somehow made the US look weak. 😁
I think the more people know about that balloon, the less worried they will be that it could do something super useful. Has been reported as ~3 school buses in size, which I'll just say is 500m^3 for easy math.
That gives it 52kg of weight capacity at 60k ft.
Items by weight
3-5kg - balloon
3kg - Altitude control tank and relief valve
10kg - Solar panels and Battery
2kg - Satellite Communications Array
Rough guess is that 20kg performs non-espionage related tasks. 32kg with limited electrical power (I'd guess from photos it has a few hundred watts to maybe 1kW available peak). It likely uses a heater to keep stuff from freezing, so a lot of the power is spent to keep stuff warm, and insulation would also cost weight.
End of the day, I think people smarter than me have made an analysis that a cubesat level payload isn't really going to pose a threat to US intelligence.
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