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On May 31 2021 13:40 plasmidghost wrote:
If Dems in the minority here could do this, then imagine what they could do in DC with all three branches of government if they actually cared
By design it is much easier to stop a bill than it is to pass one. In this case, the Democrats just had to walk away to stop a bill. Pretty easy, so they were able to accomplish it.
Actually passing something takes a ton more effort between writing effective bills and getting enough people on board... often adding questionable provisions to the bill to get that done. Then having to get it passed by the other half of Congress all while having to be filibuster proof. Get it accepted by the president (this part is easy if he’s part of the party passing the bill, hard if not). Then stand up to legal challenges in the Supreme Court, which is currently controlled by Republicans 6-3.
So no, the Democrats don’t control all three branches and it’s rarely about caring enough. The problem is usually about having representatives from very disparate places who don’t agree on solutions to problems despite being from the same party. Trying to whip them too hard in one direction can cause them to not represent their people and get ousted next election and lose the numbers advantage. Then you’ve put the other party in power to accomplish what they want and the best you can hope for is that nothing gets done.
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On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point?
Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier.
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On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier.
Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US?
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On June 01 2021 03:07 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier. Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US?
I encourage you to read about infection models and to play with tools that let you model infections over time. Minor differences can have gargantuan implications. The US isn't the only important country to me. Lots of countries simply did not have the capability to deal with a pandemic. There is an amazing amount of blood on China's hands and not all of it is American. Most of it isn't and those people deserve justice too.
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On June 01 2021 10:45 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 03:07 GreenHorizons wrote:On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier. Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US? I encourage you to read about infection models and to play with tools that let you model infections over time. Minor differences can have gargantuan implications. The US isn't the only important country to me. Lots of countries simply did not have the capability to deal with a pandemic. There is an amazing amount of blood on China's hands and not all of it is American. Most of it isn't and those people deserve justice too.
Out of curiosity, which countries do you think would have responded sooner if China had given warning at the time of the first infections?
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On June 01 2021 17:17 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 10:45 Mohdoo wrote:On June 01 2021 03:07 GreenHorizons wrote:On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier. Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US? I encourage you to read about infection models and to play with tools that let you model infections over time. Minor differences can have gargantuan implications. The US isn't the only important country to me. Lots of countries simply did not have the capability to deal with a pandemic. There is an amazing amount of blood on China's hands and not all of it is American. Most of it isn't and those people deserve justice too. Out of curiosity, which countries do you think would have responded sooner if China had given warning at the time of the first infections?
The Asia ones who had to do with SARS would have reacted even more quickly and effectively. Maybe it would even have been enough to contain it within China.
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On June 01 2021 19:16 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 17:17 EnDeR_ wrote:On June 01 2021 10:45 Mohdoo wrote:On June 01 2021 03:07 GreenHorizons wrote:On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier. Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US? I encourage you to read about infection models and to play with tools that let you model infections over time. Minor differences can have gargantuan implications. The US isn't the only important country to me. Lots of countries simply did not have the capability to deal with a pandemic. There is an amazing amount of blood on China's hands and not all of it is American. Most of it isn't and those people deserve justice too. Out of curiosity, which countries do you think would have responded sooner if China had given warning at the time of the first infections? The Asia ones who had to do with SARS would have reacted even more quickly and effectively. Maybe it would even have been enough to contain it within China.
Considering how contagious it is, it is unlikely it would have been contained in China even with early warning -- remember that in the beginning we knew absolutely nothing and the emphasis was on washing hands, not transmission through air droplets.
Asian countries have responded to the pandemic effectively for the most part. Do you think the ones that didn't, i.e. Indonesia or Philipines, would have responded more strongly/quicker if China had given an earlier warning? I just don't think it would have changed things significantly, most governments only responded when shit hit the fan, and the ones that acted early, well, they acted early and contained it. I don't see India or Europe shutting down their borders off of an early warning from China -- hell, the UK didn't even shut down when things had already hit the fan in Italy.
Which countries would have actually responded earlier?
I realise that the US politics megathread is probably not the best thread for this, so happy to move this to PM.
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On June 01 2021 21:12 JimmiC wrote:
I think lots would have responded earlier and some lives would be saved. I don't think we are talking about stopping the pandemic or even a major impact, but maybe a smaller first wave. Basically every reaction good or bad would have been earlier.
To me though the big concern is the next one, you would have to think almost everyone will react better next time. How do we ensure that China (or anywhere China is just one of the most likely due to population and conditions) gets that information out ASAP, whether it is lab release or nature.
Blaming is pointless, but learning from past mistakes, which basically everyone made a ton of, I'd super important.
I don't know. Over here in the Netherlands we basically did nothing until people returned from ski holidays in Italy and started showing symptoms. And it wasn't until things got bad in Northern Italy that measures really got moving.
China warning earlier doesn't matter when it wasn't China's warning that got government into action. In Europe the main catalyst for action was watching another first world country's healthcare system get overwhelmed.
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I don't think China giving warning earlier would have changed much for the West, but that's the wrong angle anyway.
The more relevant takeaway is that China's authoritarian system allowed it to seed in the first place. Censuring doctors for dissent as they try to raise the alarm is exactly how you turn a patient zero into a pandemic, and it's beyond dispute that they did this.
By and large, once the central authority got onto it I think they responded swiftly, but that point was crucially and unavoidably delayed by the culture of repression and fear that they have intentionally built. I think it is very reasonable to hold the CCP to account for the fruit of the environment they created.
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On June 01 2021 22:28 Belisarius wrote:
I don't think China giving warning earlier would have changed much for the West, but that's the wrong angle anyway.
The more relevant takeaway is that China's authoritarian system allowed it to seed in the first place. Censuring doctors for dissent as they try to raise the alarm is exactly how you turn a patient zero into a pandemic, and it's beyond dispute that they did this.
By and large, once the central authority got onto it I think they responded swiftly, but that point was crucially and unavoidably delayed by the culture of repression and fear that they have intentionally built. I think it is very reasonable to hold the CCP to account for the fruit of the environment they created.
This is about my take as well, there are valid concerns unrelated to "what might have happened differently" underlying the association of Covid's emergence and China's socio-political landscape. As a matter of historical fact, they go together and so long as the inquiry is carefully dissociated from xenophobic anti-China baiting, it's worth looking for lessons to be learned.
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On June 01 2021 22:58 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 22:28 Belisarius wrote:
I don't think China giving warning earlier would have changed much for the West, but that's the wrong angle anyway.
The more relevant takeaway is that China's authoritarian system allowed it to seed in the first place. Censuring doctors for dissent as they try to raise the alarm is exactly how you turn a patient zero into a pandemic, and it's beyond dispute that they did this.
By and large, once the central authority got onto it I think they responded swiftly, but that point was crucially and unavoidably delayed by the culture of repression and fear that they have intentionally built. I think it is very reasonable to hold the CCP to account for the fruit of the environment they created. This is about my take as well, there are valid concerns unrelated to "what might have happened differently" underlying the association of Covid's emergence and China's socio-political landscape. As a matter of historical fact, they go together and so long as the inquiry is carefully dissociated from xenophobic anti-China baiting, it's worth looking for lessons to be learned.
I agree broadly, in the sense that the initial 'nothing to see here folks' approach is basically criminal considering the consequences and there's definitely a lesson to be learned there for the Chinese government.
However, I do not think this thing would have been contained even if this information had not been repressed, covid-19 is just stupidly contagious and we focussed on the wrong transmission vector in the beginning, i.e. dirty surfaces vs airborne transmission. It might have probably delayed the first wave, but to my mind, there's no question that this thing gets out of China.
The early warning would have done nothing for NA/EU, and countries that had to deal with SARS already dealt well with covid, so the impact would have been minimal. Perhaps a few saved lives, but far away from the 'amazing amount of blood on their hands' from Mohdoo's post. In fact, if you want to talk about 'amazing amount of blood on their hands', I would posit that whoever was the first to go on tv and say 'it's just a flu' has far more blood on their hands.
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Trump has been telling people he'll be reinstated as president by August. This is why you don't let dictatorial strong men with extreme narcissistic personality disorder on top of delusions off without punishment : they're never going to accept reality, ever, and will keep trying until they're stopped.
per Haberman
Additionally, Flynn is calling for a military coup and Sydney Powell is backing it up. People are apparently telling reporters not to even report on this sort of thing, which I honestly think is probably the right approach if people would follow it. But they won't, so we have to deal with insane(r) claims .
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On June 01 2021 22:58 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 22:28 Belisarius wrote:
I don't think China giving warning earlier would have changed much for the West, but that's the wrong angle anyway.
The more relevant takeaway is that China's authoritarian system allowed it to seed in the first place. Censuring doctors for dissent as they try to raise the alarm is exactly how you turn a patient zero into a pandemic, and it's beyond dispute that they did this.
By and large, once the central authority got onto it I think they responded swiftly, but that point was crucially and unavoidably delayed by the culture of repression and fear that they have intentionally built. I think it is very reasonable to hold the CCP to account for the fruit of the environment they created. This is about my take as well, there are valid concerns unrelated to "what might have happened differently" underlying the association of Covid's emergence and China's socio-political landscape. As a matter of historical fact, they go together and so long as the inquiry is carefully dissociated from xenophobic anti-China baiting, it's worth looking for lessons to be learned.
I would say that the US gov, media, and public generally have already failed there.
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On June 01 2021 19:39 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 19:16 Slydie wrote:On June 01 2021 17:17 EnDeR_ wrote:On June 01 2021 10:45 Mohdoo wrote:On June 01 2021 03:07 GreenHorizons wrote:On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier. Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US? I encourage you to read about infection models and to play with tools that let you model infections over time. Minor differences can have gargantuan implications. The US isn't the only important country to me. Lots of countries simply did not have the capability to deal with a pandemic. There is an amazing amount of blood on China's hands and not all of it is American. Most of it isn't and those people deserve justice too. Out of curiosity, which countries do you think would have responded sooner if China had given warning at the time of the first infections? The Asia ones who had to do with SARS would have reacted even more quickly and effectively. Maybe it would even have been enough to contain it within China. Considering how contagious it is, it is unlikely it would have been contained in China even with early warning -- remember that in the beginning we knew absolutely nothing and the emphasis was on washing hands, not transmission through air droplets.
It doesn't need to be 100% contained. Even just 10% reduction in transmission early on, where it still goes all the same places, makes a huge difference when you are essentially racing against a vaccine. We could have done even better than that with communication alone.
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On June 02 2021 02:50 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2021 19:39 EnDeR_ wrote:On June 01 2021 19:16 Slydie wrote:On June 01 2021 17:17 EnDeR_ wrote:On June 01 2021 10:45 Mohdoo wrote:On June 01 2021 03:07 GreenHorizons wrote:On May 31 2021 23:58 Mohdoo wrote:On May 31 2021 03:55 raga4ka wrote:On May 31 2021 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:
In order for China to have handled this remotely respectfully, they would have needed to inform other countries many months earlier than they did. And they would have needed to not suppress information. And they would have have needed to give 5000000% access to all their labs. China handled this shamefully. How many months earlier? Information about the new disease only started popping up in December 2019, maybe late November, I'm not a 100% sure, but there were only a few cases at the time being reported in the media, did China even have any detailed information at that point? Just to be clear, you are citing information from China. I don’t think that information is correct. Lots of witnesses say hospitals knew something was up much earlier. Are you suggesting that China saying "something was up much earlier" than we know they did would have made some substantive difference for the US? I encourage you to read about infection models and to play with tools that let you model infections over time. Minor differences can have gargantuan implications. The US isn't the only important country to me. Lots of countries simply did not have the capability to deal with a pandemic. There is an amazing amount of blood on China's hands and not all of it is American. Most of it isn't and those people deserve justice too. Out of curiosity, which countries do you think would have responded sooner if China had given warning at the time of the first infections? The Asia ones who had to do with SARS would have reacted even more quickly and effectively. Maybe it would even have been enough to contain it within China. Considering how contagious it is, it is unlikely it would have been contained in China even with early warning -- remember that in the beginning we knew absolutely nothing and the emphasis was on washing hands, not transmission through air droplets. It doesn't need to be 100% contained. Even just 10% reduction in transmission early on, where it still goes all the same places, makes a huge difference when you are essentially racing against a vaccine. We could have done even better than that with communication alone.
Sure, a limited initial spread would have delayed the first wave. However, the whole scientific community does not start working on a vaccine unless there is a first wave, so the vaccine is also delayed. We certainly could have done better, but early warning from China would change things very little is what I'm saying here. You'd still have the same doofus going on tv saying that it's just a flu and that it'll go away in april.
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United States42009 Posts
Any potential actions taken that would have been effective at preventing a pandemic would have been decried as alarmist, unnecessary, and excessive by the people not dying. Successful preventative policy is always unpopular because it cannot be evaluated based on the hypothetical catastrophe avoided. Even after millions of deaths people are still angry about the lockdowns. The idea that the populist democracies of the west would have made informed proactive choices had they only been informed earlier is laughable. I’d say they needed the disaster in order to learn but that implies they’re capable of learning. Sound strategic planning is not a strength of populism.
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On June 02 2021 01:53 Nevuk wrote:
Additionally, Flynn is calling for a military coup and Sydney Powell is backing it up. People are apparently telling reporters not to even report on this sort of thing, which I honestly think is probably the right approach if people would follow it. But they won't, so we have to deal with insane(r) claims .
CNN will eat this up and report it a ton even though it's obvious how dangerous it is to even talk about these types of things. They've already shown they have no issue running with this type of stuff if they think it will get them attention. If anything has been shown the last 7 or so years, it's that we can not trust the US cable news networks and some news publishers to handle any topic in a reasonable and safe manner.
I can only hope that this doesn't end with somebody being hurt or killed.
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EPT
