US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2893

On December 15 2020 11:18 JimmiC wrote:

Is this a typo? The Dem led house is going to overturn the actual election results so Trump could win?

On December 15 2020 08:47 rope123 wrote:


I already conceded this point and also argued that basically any bayesian prediction suffers from this dilemma. Yes, it is probably a valid argument to say aliens landing tomorrow is less likely than aliens landing in the next millenium. It is also true that if we accept that events with an a priori unknownable probability exist any future prediction would be in essence unknowable. But as far as I am aware there is a difference between an unlikely event (meteor landing in 2021) and an unpredictable event (aliens). When we assess the value of a prediction, we look at the reasoning they give for their predicition and have to disregard the "black boxes". Bayesian predictions are in essence more social than mathematical. For example a random person in 2019 would have said: Disregarding black boxes the chances of Olympic Games being cancelled are 3 % and I will give you these odds. Bill Gates - always being worried about Pandemics (and with good reason) - maybe would have put the chances higher at 10 % and given those odds. Then in 2019 we couldve looked at the facts we had available and could have argued among ourselves whose prediction is more convincing.
What I am claiming is that nobody can make a convincing argument that goes further than total guesswork regarding an alien landing aside from relying on the (uninteresting and irrelevant) fact that it has not happened yet. So to me saying aliens landing is "unlikely" just is not a valid argument because if I ask: "why?" nobody can give any sound argument beyond "feelings".
Tldr we just dont know or understand enough about alien life, travel etc that any prediction claiming it is unlikely that they will show up tomorrow is not an valid prediction because we cant assess the quality of its reasoning. You can argue against the bayesian probabilities of a secession by analysing cultural, economical and political factors. But if you say aliens won't show up tomorrow, next week or next year, your only argument is that it hasnt happened yet.

//different example
Lets say we make a prediciton about a super volcano erupting in 2021. In this case we have good reason to assume that the probabilities of such an event can be inferred from the regularity with which such a volcano erupted over earth's history as long as the relevant geological factors were comparable. So we can make a sound prediction that the likelihood of this event is rather low. The quality of such a prediction wouldnt even change if we later after an eruption has taken place figure out that it was always inevitable that it would happen in 2021. As long as we didnt have access to the specific fact, that would have told us about the certainty of the eruption, when we made the predicition, it was a valid prediction. With Aliens you can reasonably take any! position. Them not having shown up yet might have very good reasons (e.g. they wait until we reach a very specific technological stage) or it might be an indicator that it is hard for aliens to show up etc.
Thus the simple fact that it is more likely that they will show up in the next 1000 years vs the next year vs the next day or minute will on its own never lead to any identifiable "number", nor even to "high" "small" "astronomically small". Only to relative statements like "lower"..

On December 15 2020 11:25 BerserkSword wrote:


It's not a typo.

The electorate would not be the house members. Each state would get one vote. Republicans have 26 delegations I believe. That's why I'm almost certain Trump would be favored in such a scenario

On December 15 2020 15:42 TheTenthDoc wrote:
I'd like to point out that the problem with Trump has always been his absurd narcissism and lack of empathy birthing an obsession with power, incredible lack of competency wed with possibly the worst case of Dunning-Kruger in presidential history leading him to break completely with reality, and his ability to be readily manipulated by his advisors and "allies" while being surrounded by people like Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, and co.

The idea that the only thing people farther left than the GOP hate Trump for his ideological leanings (which presupposes Trump has any ideology beyond self-interest) is just silly. He's awful in ways that are pretty uniquely his own, but there are other ways to be awful. There's a reason the largest fear is a competent Trump that is on a mission from God instead of a mission from grift.

On December 15 2020 19:02 Biff The Understudy wrote:

To be honest, the refusal to acknowledge that Trump was both an absolutely awful person and a terrible president by some people on the right here makes me wonder about both their values and their judgment.

That or people become unbelievably dumb when extreme partisanship and tribal reactions are at play. The guy is literally behaving and speaking like a batman villain, and they are like "naaaaah, he is only joking". If Obama had done the tenth of what Trump has pulled, they would have been absolutely horrified, and the worst thing is, they would have been right.

On December 15 2020 14:08 Danglars wrote:

Nah, it wasn't real dueling electors. It was just theater. You can find funny video of an official patiently speaking to and stopping the pretenders from entering the actual voting chamber.

Theater just like all the lawsuits and tweets and statements and letters and allegations. It'll all go on until Biden's swearing in, and then you can choose to pay attention to it or not. Then the next phase is Trump's rehabilitation as the moderate Republican than his successor candidates are oh-so-much-worse than, as we already saw talked about with Pence during the 25th Amendment theater.

On December 15 2020 14:08 Danglars wrote:

Nah, it wasn't real dueling electors. It was just theater. You can find funny video of an official patiently speaking to and stopping the pretenders from entering the actual voting chamber.

Theater just like all the lawsuits and tweets and statements and letters and allegations. It'll all go on until Biden's swearing in, and then you can choose to pay attention to it or not. Then the next phase is Trump's rehabilitation as the moderate Republican than his successor candidates are oh-so-much-worse than, as we already saw talked about with Pence during the 25th Amendment theater.

On December 15 2020 09:49 Danglars wrote:

The whole attempt to paint the Hunter Biden computer/emails story as some kind of Russian disinformation would've been smacked down hard if anyone leaked that there was an investigation of over two years into Hunter for Chinese money laundering. If you recall, his former business partner Bobulinski alleged all that back after the story, while confirming the authenticity of the emails.

The margins of the Biden electoral win in the states that carried him over was between 0.24% and 1.16%. I wouldn't discount the potential release of corroborating information close to the election. You're a little looney on the "nobody gives a shit."

As for the moral side, I've had enough of Comey-style prosecutorial releases near an election, and Barr made the right decision to sit on it.

On December 15 2020 19:48 Slydie wrote:


I agree that it is mostly a theater in that the outcome has always been pretty clear.

What worries me is the intentions of said theater, and that for far too many henchmen and supporters, it is a very real fight for "justice."

If some of those insane law suits actually succeeded, and millions of legal votes were thrown out, Trump would not have backed off and admitted he didn't "really" want to destroy the US democracy, would he?

On December 16 2020 00:35 Stratos_speAr wrote:


I think it's worth pointing out that you have consistently tried to downplay and trivialize Trump's disgusting attempts at a fascist takeover and you've been repeatedly shown to be wrong.

On December 15 2020 19:02 Biff The Understudy wrote:

To be honest, the refusal to acknowledge that Trump was both an absolutely awful person and a terrible president by some people on the right here makes me wonder about both their values and their judgment.

That or people become unbelievably dumb when extreme partisanship and tribal reactions are at play. The guy is literally behaving and speaking like a batman villain, and they are like "naaaaah, he is only joking". If Obama had done the tenth of what Trump has pulled, they would have been absolutely horrified, and the worst thing is, they would have been right.

On December 16 2020 02:47 Danglars wrote:

You’ve said the very important thing: the outcome has always been pretty clear. We have courts just in case fraud was present, but not judges at high courts willing to entertain all the ludicrous allegations (and just *look* at the venom with which they were dismissed). So Trump is made out to be a sore loser, but more importantly, an impotent sore loser.


This is what you get for not indulging in speculation that Trump’s judges are gonna hand him the election, or Trump’s military is going to overrule the result, or his staff will support him holing up in there. If you’re not as viscerally outraged in text on the internet, you’re gonna be accused of downplaying and trivializing. Your post here is sad and pathetic, so I’d encourage you to ease off the resistance signaling or whatever.

On December 15 2020 19:48 Slydie wrote:
I agree that it is mostly a theater in that the outcome has always been pretty clear.

What worries me is the intentions of said theater, and that for far too many henchmen and supporters, it is a very real fight for "justice."

If some of those insane law suits actually succeeded, and millions of legal votes were thrown out, Trump would not have backed off and admitted he didn't "really" want to destroy the US democracy, would he?

On December 16 2020 02:47 Danglars wrote:

You’ve said the very important thing: the outcome has always been pretty clear. We have courts just in case fraud was present, but not judges at high courts willing to entertain all the ludicrous allegations (and just *look* at the venom with which they were dismissed). So Trump is made out to be a sore loser, but more importantly, an impotent sore loser.


This is what you get for not indulging in speculation that Trump’s judges are gonna hand him the election, or Trump’s military is going to overrule the result, or his staff will support him holing up in there. If you’re not as viscerally outraged in text on the internet, you’re gonna be accused of downplaying and trivializing. Your post here is sad and pathetic, so I’d encourage you to ease off the resistance signaling or whatever.