EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2248
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States24505 Posts
On April 10 2020 11:29 Belisarius wrote: It's certainly ironic that the big healthcare change Bernie's young supporters "laid the groundwork for" is of exclusive benefit to Biden's own boomer base. It's only ironic if you think the kind of self-serving, society dooming political calculations we see from Republicans aren't also practiced by Democrats imo. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46692 Posts
Poll finds Biden with 11-point national lead on Trump https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/491992-poll-finds-biden-with-11-point-national-lead-on-trump?amp&fbclid=IwAR1m2fXN4lkuU5kTFukCIMXGhDXUNl3SIkefl6J0TH6JG6vbo9fH82WfHgc Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 11 points in a new national survey released by CNN on Thursday. The poll finds Biden with 53 percent support against 42 percent support for Trump. That's the largest margin for any poll released this month. A Monmouth University survey released on Thursday found Biden with a 4-point national lead. Most other recent surveys put Biden's advantage between 3 points and 8 points. Trump has a clear advantage in enthusiasm - 70 percent of the president's supporters say they're very excited to cast a ballot for him, compared to 50 percent of Biden's supporters. Both Trump and Biden have more than 90 percent support from voters within their own parties, but independents broke for Biden in the poll by 12 points. Biden also has a massive 30-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump's lead among men is only at 7 points. Biden has 72 percent support among voters of color. Trump leads by 8 points among white voters. Among voters under the age of 35, Biden leads 62 percent to 31 percent. Among voters over the age of 55, Trump leads 55 percent to 42 percent. Fifty-two percent of voters said they trust Biden to handle the coronavirus outbreak, compared to 43 percent who said Trump. On the issues of health care and helping the middle class, voters picked Biden over Trump by 18 points in both instances. However, 50 percent of voters said they trust Trump on the economy, compared to 46 percent who said Biden. The CNN-SSRS survey of 875 registered voters was conducted April 3-6 and has a 3.7 percentage point margin of error. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24505 Posts
We see that in those enthusiasm numbers Trump has a clear advantage in enthusiasm - 70 percent of the president's supporters say they're very excited to cast a ballot for him, compared to 50 percent of Biden's supporters. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46692 Posts
On April 10 2020 22:28 GreenHorizons wrote: I think everyone knows that it's not reasonable to say it is literally impossible for Biden to win. The argument is based on the general election electorate not being as willing as Democrat loyalists to look past Biden's abysmal record and show up to vote for him (especially amid a pandemic and several hour lines). We see that in those enthusiasm numbers That's true; there's definitely a difference between merely wanting a candidate and actually getting out there and voting for them. | ||
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farvacola
United States18876 Posts
On April 10 2020 22:44 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: That's true; there's definitely a difference between merely wanting a candidate and actually getting out there and voting for them. As us Bernie supporters know all too well. Cardi B said some funny stuff about Bernie dropping out, I recommend looking for those sound bites. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27478 Posts
On April 10 2020 11:39 JimmiC wrote: Sadly, it is just campaign winning logic. Make your policies appealing to those most likely to vote and vote for you. The DNC primary saw how even smashing in the young demographics does not matter. And then the last few pages have been about how those same people are not going to vote. There really is not much point to making policy for those who are not going to vote for him, or anybody. Where as winning the boomer vote means winning the election. Young people staying away from the election does not bring extra power to the young it brings extra power to the old. It is the same flawed logic is hoping trump wins because that will bring us further away from fascism? It is a self fulfilling prophecy of failure mixed in with making yourself a "victim" of the system so you don't have to do anything because nothing you do can make a difference.... If anyone was looking at the numbers based on turnouts, they would make their policy favor the old. If people were looking at twitter, reddit or here. They would base there policy on the old because the young don't show up, and are announcing their intention. Policy for the young is a losing strategy. So don’t build your platform around the youth vote but give them stuff on your platform that will appeal to them. Which even Biden has seen the need for, thanks thread for the further explanations by way. As long as said policies don’t conflict with your older base’s wish, a platform of stuff for their concerns with some additional tacked on stuff is just going to be better than ignoring an entire demographics concerns. I mean black turnout is lower in totality and percentage generally from my recollections, but if I suggested just ignoring their policy concerns on that basis people would rightly call me an idiot. I know the GOP generally do but talking a Dem candidate here. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24505 Posts
On April 10 2020 22:45 farvacola wrote: As us Bernie supporters know all too well. Cardi B said some funny stuff about Bernie dropping out, I recommend looking for those sound bites. I feel like it won't land well with groups of young voters that had to wait hours in line on campus to vote. For those that went to vote, stood in line for a couple hours, then left so they didn't get chewed out by their boss/coworkers at their minimum wage job, they're just not going to waste their time in Nov. | ||
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farvacola
United States18876 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States24505 Posts
On April 10 2020 23:23 farvacola wrote: Not enough wasted their time in the primary either, so oh well. I stand with Cardi on this one lol I'm confident they'll get the blame for a system that disenfranchises them in November to similar results. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32761 Posts
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farvacola
United States18876 Posts
On April 10 2020 23:56 PhoenixVoid wrote: If there is one question I'd like to see added on those polls, is "How enthusiastic are you to defeat Donald Trump in November?". In terms of enthusiasm to vote, Trump is beating out Biden, but the prospect of evicting Trump from the White House is just as powerful of a motive to go to the polls for Democrats and anyone who they are allowing in the big tent to defeat Trump. I'd suspect many people voting Biden are doing so because they are enthusiastically seeking to oust Trump more so than want Biden, and that isn't a force you can easily ignore. That’s more or less how I’d characterize my motivation to vote in November despite my strong objections to numerous aspects of Biden’s candidacy. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8224 Posts
On April 10 2020 23:56 PhoenixVoid wrote: If there is one question I'd like to see added on those polls, is "How enthusiastic are you to defeat Donald Trump in November?". In terms of enthusiasm to vote, Trump is beating out Biden, but the prospect of evicting Trump from the White House is just as powerful of a motive to go to the polls for Democrats and anyone who they are allowing in the big tent to defeat Trump. I'd suspect many people voting Biden are doing so because they are enthusiastically seeking to oust Trump more so than want Biden, and that isn't a force you can easily ignore. If the election was Romney - Biden or Mc Cain - Biden, I would understand people not voting. But I think a lot of people realize how much damage Trump is doing and how dangerous for american democracy a second term would be. I would give a 50% chance that 2020 is the last proper elections and that the US goes full Hungary if Trump is reelected. He is the most corrosive politician for american democracy in history. In my opinion, not voting in a moment like that because you didn't get the candidate you wanted is morally repugnant. What is at stake is immense. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Logo
United States7542 Posts
On April 11 2020 00:01 Biff The Understudy wrote: If the election was Romney - Biden or Mc Cain - Biden, I would understand people not voting. But I think a lot of people realize how much damage Trump is doing and how dangerous for american democracy a second term would be. I would give a 50% chance that 2020 is the last proper elections and that the US goes full Hungary if Trump is reelected. He is the most corrosive politician for american democracy in history. In my opinion, not voting in a moment like that because you didn't get the candidate you wanted is morally repugnant. What is at stake is immense. You're making a bet. Is Trump going to go "full Hungary" if re-elected? Is he smart or capable enough to do that? Or is the next Republican who will succeed Trump when Biden doesn't fundamentally change anything the one who will go "full Hungary"? Are we on a path that things will get better? Is Biden really going to deliver even positive incremental change? How? Is someone like Tom Cotton or Dan Crenshaw way more capable than Trump and more willing to grab power rather than just grift money from the system? You don't put your foot down on Biden because "you didn't get the candidate you wanted" you put your foot down because we're running out of time to get a candidate who will pull the country away from a death spiral of income inequality, climate change, and a rising nativist sentiment (oh and a looming giant economic & health crisis now). By all accounts things are going to keep getting worse if things don't fundementally change and each step on the way it will become riskier and riskier to try to force a different path. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
"Im not voting for Biden" is not "Im not going to vote" | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46692 Posts
On April 11 2020 02:17 Zambrah wrote: Who is saying not to vote, I keep hearing this, but Im not sure anyone here has stated that they aren't going to vote? "Im not voting for Biden" is not "Im not going to vote" While it's true that those two statements are not equivalent on their face, they're certainly equivalent in terms of affecting the outcome of the election (unless you're explicitly voting for Trump). The final count of Biden's votes vs. Trump's votes will be the same if you don't vote for either of them (whether that's voting third-party, writing in Sanders, not voting at all, etc.). | ||
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