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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 17 2020 04:47 Mohdoo wrote:
I basically see it as: The federal government should pay everyone's mortgage for about 2 or 3 months. We'll probably be fine after that.
Sounds like a solid $400-600 billion stimulus package (128 million households, average $1400 rent is my ballpark estimate based on a quick search). At least it'd do a lot more good than trying and failing to prop up the stock markets.
On March 17 2020 04:47 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 04:38 LegalLord wrote:On March 17 2020 03:59 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 17 2020 03:50 LegalLord wrote:
It seems quite questionable to just say "handle the accounting problem later." If people stop paying, someone gets screwed. Either the renters, the landowners, or the banks. If the government has already agreed to pick up the bill, maybe that's the best option, but again: if you don't know what's happening, what's to stop people from just failing to pay their rents/mortgages for the foreseeable future? Maybe the first attempt isn't perfect, but hopefully someone at least thought that problem through. Protect people where they live, then landlords that can't make their mortgage and banks that can't pay taxes on the land lose it to compensate the government for keeping the people in their homes. Then the government turns over any vacant properties to a public housing project to provide housing for those still left out. As a practical matter some properties that are impractical for single/multi-family occupation will have to be repurposed and/or reconstructed. Not what I expect from Trump and Congress, but that's what I think we need imo. Also requisition unoccupied homes in populous areas that are not occupied by their owner to be used for additional public housing. Should be a transitioning of ownership from the feds to the people that live there in an orderly fashion over time as well. Sounds inefficient. If we're to arbitrarily force landlords to provide free housing to the current tenants, and banks to cover the loans, why not just skip those intermediate steps and go to the part where the government forcefully seizes all private property? Because honestly, that sounds like exactly what you're suggesting. Staggering it and using mechanisms people already accept would be more orderly imo. I suppose we could quibble over the 'forcibly' part. I don't think "all private property" is realistic unless we're talking about over the course of decades. If landlords and bankers turned violent in their efforts to remove people from their homes, I could see it settling out more rapidly.
Well, I suppose it's consistent with a "tax private property out of existence" approach. Not a fan, personally, but to each their own.
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You see that bottom? It's fallen out. Market is in chaos.
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On March 17 2020 05:22 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
You see that bottom? It's fallen out. Market is in chaos.
just by looking at this it seemed pretty obvious there's been a bubble before Corona
Trump said so himself in 2016 in a debate with hillary
![[image loading]](https://i.gyazo.com/cd834320e78e303892df7770056c2a80.png)
So a correction was due anyways even if corona didn't happen
There's a real threat that bursting the bubble + Corona might lead to a depression - am I correct in that assessment?
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That's the concern if NO measures are taken. An actual depression is somewhat unlikely given the lessons learned after 1929. Recession is definite though. A 2008 level one is what people are trying to avoid now.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 17 2020 05:26 LemOn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 05:22 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
You see that bottom? It's fallen out. Market is in chaos. just by looking at this it seemed pretty obvious there's been a bubble before Corona Trump said so himself in 2016 in a debate with hillary So a correction was due anyways even if corona didn't happen There's a real threat that bursting the bubble + Corona might lead to a depression - am I correct in that assessment?
There's definitely been a massive bubble brewing for quite a few years now. Trump definitely delayed it by offering lots of corporate tax cuts and using the Fed to prop up the stock market really hard. It definitely looked like we'd have seen a moderate crash in late 2018, for example, until the Fed dropped the rates then and several more times throughout 2019. We've just finally hit a crisis that monetary policy can't forestall, and it causes everything else - corporate debt, consumer debt, fragile supply chains, etc - to just suddenly all look like they're about to fail.
Needless to say, this could look very bad for the economy, yes.
On March 17 2020 05:29 Nevuk wrote:
That's the concern if NO measures are taken. An actual depression is somewhat unlikely given the lessons learned after 1929. Recession is definite though. A 2008 level one is what people are trying to avoid now.
2008 seems to be where the lessons were not learned. It's like someone decided that the cure to a bubble was to use government stimulus to create an even bigger bubble. Now, here we are.
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The market is crashing because the physical economy is crashing and grinding to a halt. It doesn't matter if its a bubble or artificially inflated. Nor do I think a bubble makes the crash any worse then it would otherwise have been.
You can't expect the market not to crater if the businesses they are built on stop work.
Sadly the economy is probably to tightly entwined with the stock market or this would be a great situation to simply halt all trade for a month or more and wait for all these quarantines to be eased off. Once the businesses get back into motion you resume trade.
But hey, if you have any spare money lying around its going to be a great time to put it into stock when the market bottoms out, it can only go up from there.
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Northern Ireland25642 Posts
Well great I have fuck all money to invest...
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Northern Ireland25642 Posts
On March 17 2020 06:11 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 05:06 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 16 2020 09:59 JimmiC wrote:On March 16 2020 09:36 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 16 2020 09:05 JimmiC wrote:
Why do people keep posting as if the people saying negative things about other countries are somehow absolving the US of its misdeeds? It is often the same people who are saying that Saudi Arabia government is shit that are also saying that China Government is shit and that the American Government is shit and foreign policy has been awful and continued to be awful.
Pointing out factually why China's government is shit does not make the US the good guys. There are multiple Good guys and bad guys and even within those countries governments there are varying levels of good guys and bad guys. There is a whole bunch of shit in the world, and it is OK to point it out everywhere. In fact you should because the goal shouldn't be proving who is the worst but getting all these shitty people out of power.
People need to start being just as critical of the actions of those they consider "to be on their team" as they are of the people on the "other team". And also stop making the logically in-congruent assumption that if someone is talking poorly about what Government A is doing that they must be fully supportive of Government B. That is not how the world works.
No one should be defending the Chinese, Venezuelan , North Korean, and so on governments because they believe in socialism, because those governments are giving socialism a horrible name by not following its principals but pretending they are and that all the problems are "propaganda".
People who believe in neoliberalism should not defend the US actions in the Middle East, South America and so on, because they are giving it a horrible name by not following many of its principals and pretending that they are and they need to because if they don't the paragraph above this version of socialism is coming to get us. Because that is also propaganda.
The sad truth is most of the world is run by a bunch of rich and powerful assholes who want us all pointing fingers at each other and not notice that they are the fucking problem. Whether that is the Donald, Xi, Putin, MBS or any of the other evil people who only really care about their own wealth and power. The thing in the west we need to care the most about and work the hardest to protect is the checks and balances that keep someone from rising to absolute power, because there has yes to be anyone who has and has not made it incredibly awesome for themselves and incredibly awful for everyone else. Well ok but what do you believe in? Half your posts are about how China/Venezuela etc are bad and that’s about it, the other half is just milquetoast ‘It could be worse’ liberalism and it’s just irritating really. Just constant talk about checks and balances as if they work lmao I believe the best system that currently exists is social democracy. It is far from perfect but is a lot better than the likes of China, Venezuela, North Korea and so on in the dictatorship "left" (I put left in brackets because I don't see any meaningful difference between a right and left wing dictatorship, saying the left one is better is like saying I'd rather eat my shit than someone else's which does not much matter, I'd rather just not eat any shit). And far better than dictatorship right like Russia, Turkey and so on. And far better than the democratic right like US, Brazil and so on. And I also believe that any democracy is better than Totalitarian dictatorships, especially domestically, not always the case outside of ones borders. There is reasons why most of the countries around China allow American air Bases and are not happy about China building new islands and so on to expand their reach. There is also reasons why millions of Venezuelan's are fleeing Venezuela and no it is not the "soft power" exerted by America that caused it, millions had fled before the sanctions, but they are not helping. Mainly because if enough people want someone like Bernie Sanders in the States they have the power to elect him. The Chinese people, and Venezuelan people have no choice, they are stuck with their shit. I do not think the right action is to force people into socialism through violent revolution, but rather educate them so eventually they choose it this will take way longer and might never work. But having a violent revolution and then forcing it on people will defiantly not work, I know this because it never has. No it is not as fast as I would like, but it sure as hell beats the alternative. And yes checks and balances do not work perfectly and that is why loop holes need to be constantly closed instead of being opened on purpose like is currently happening in the USA. Much like with video games when you have a shit ton of people trying to exploit shit for their own benefits tons of stuff gets figured out and needs to be patched. The US system needs a hell of a patch not more bugs. Rather late but apologies for my shitty attitude in my post Jimmy, thanks for the earnest response. All good, we are all allowed to have bad days, I know I've had more than my fair share.
Thanks man, hopefully we both have fewer in the future!
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Dismantles the pandemic teams... a hoax stirred up by the Democracts... 15 patients soon to be zero... no one has died... we've got this contained near air tight...
If the Democrats want to beat Trump, they just need to show clips of him saying that stuff over and over. The Populist leaders are failing their countries with their loose association with the truth and lack of belief in science.
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On March 17 2020 05:04 Sadist wrote:
This press conference is a clown show.
Trump actually makes everything worse. He just needs to fucking shut up. He shouldnt even be talking it should be experts only.
What did he say NOW?
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Jesus he just said that hes considering quarantining areas. Jesus christ I'd bail out of cities right now.
"We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves,"
Thats just good leadership right there.
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The markets gotta rally tomorrow, right?
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On March 17 2020 09:01 IgnE wrote:
The markets gotta rally tomorrow, right?
Dow is up 1.29% in futures right now. I wouldn't take it as a sign either way, but its not a sure shot for red or green
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I would guess a day of holding patterns, but that's just a hunch. The impact of the next day's worth of spread news is hard to gauge.
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The thing is, all these maybe kind of good news things are still based on no testing. As soon as stuff starts to fall apart, its all going down.
We are going to start hearing about manufacturing closing down. This is one of those few times I actually have a very good ability to comment on this lol. 2 weeks from now is gonna be realllllllly weird. So many things closing down.
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The auto plants in Michigan and Ohio will shut down sometime in the next few days, if not tomorrow.
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On March 17 2020 09:01 IgnE wrote:
The markets gotta rally tomorrow, right?
Seems unlikely that we're at the bottom, but maybe a small rally before another limit break.
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On March 17 2020 10:01 farvacola wrote:
The auto plants in Michigan and Ohio will shut down sometime in the next few days, if not tomorrow.
What will that mean for you guys? We are "Silicon Forest" and this is gonna be pretty devastating. The way things are going right now, we are in this weird winding down where we keep going thinner and thinner, but it is clearly headed towards zero. As critical technicians end up returning from travel or contact with people or whatever, big portions of these skeleton crews are removed from the factory.
There is very, very, very clearly a need for some huge stimulus thing. Factories are going to actually shut down and it feels like people don't understand the implications.
Everyone continues to frame this as if it is probably really abnormal, but not actually a big deal. It's strange. It's like people aren't capable of grasping what is happening because it is so unique.
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EPT
