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On March 13 2020 14:24 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2020 09:34 m4ini wrote:On March 13 2020 09:11 Zambrah wrote:
That travel ban looks like it might be a good thing, help to keep the rest of the world out of the petri dish that is the United States. I was thinking similar. At first i somehow felt somewhat offended, but after looking closer at how the US handles this pandemic (or the shocking, jaw dropping lack of handling), i started to be happy again. Then i remembered that i now live in the US' poodle buddy, the UK, and now i'm concerned again. I absolutely can't grasp why people aren't taking to the streets (well probably not the greatest idea currently, granted) and demanding actual action. Four days ago, the US tested a whopping 4500 people altogether, nationwide - of which around 10% tested positive. That's a ridiculous number. Both because it's so laughably small in people tested, and because it's so shockingly obvious that there's a lot of cases out there. If that doesn't show the blatant inability of your administration, i don't know who's worse: trump, trying his usual spin of "hoax", then "foreign invasion" - or people actually arguing that this isn't the absolutely most retarded way possible to respond to something that is fucking obviously the worst threat to our health in our lifetime/generation. To the point where the UK Prime Minister prepares his people with the sentence "more families, uh, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time". I can't stand the dumb memes of "flu kills that many people, corona only killed that many" - which is basically the US in a nutshell. I just can't fathom the idiocy of it. If extrapolated and 10% of the population is infected with C-19 then the CFR for C-19 is laughably low and the hysteria about it is doing far more harm (economic, which is real life and death shit, just ask any poor and or communist/socialist country) than the virus itself. Also, comparing C-19 to the Flu is apt, as the flu is one of the deadliest seasonal virologies on the planet and yet our response to the flu isn't to destroy economic activity and isolate ourselves like its 28-days later. I suspect the CFR rate is closer to the #'s in Korea (probably somewhere between 4-6x of the flu's .1% CFR). The "upside" to C-19 is that it is less deadly for healthy adults and children/babies than the flu. Speaking of, didn't some of y'all talk about wanting boomers to die for your glorious revolution anyways? /shrug A Korea situation is already out of reach for the US. The virus is freely spreading and unseen because of a lack of tests.
Remember you have a lag time of a bit under 2 weeks because of the time until symptoms show. If by some miracle of god the virus completely stopped spreading today you would still have an exponential increase in patients for 2 weeks.
Your not going to get a China style situation either because they implemented containment which kept the virus somewhat contained to certain region. There is still a ton of travel throughout the US which leads to cross infection between states.
So your looking at an Italy, where the healthcare is completely overwhelmed and beds and equipment have such shortages that doctors have to resort to triage, decide who lives and who dies because there are 20 people who will die without medical attention but only equipment for 10 of them.
Its like a doctors game where you have to save X% of people, except these aren't pixels dying, but someones parents/grandparents.
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Trump going on a tirade blaming Obama,regulations, Europe, and China while at the same time calling for Unity in his previous tweet. There is no sense of accountability in anyone in his government. These people dont give a damn about any of us.
This is a man who cant even read a teleprompter right and causes mass confusion after he addresses the nation.
Nothing will wake this POS up. All he does is deflect and blame others. He has 0 accountability. Ive seen 3 year olds more mature than the President. The next 2 or 3 weeks are going to be ugly. I cant imagine how poorly its going to reflect on our country if this slob is re-elected in November.
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Norway28814 Posts
Honestly thinking the US is gonna be one of the western countries struggling the most with this. The combination of government isn't trustworthy/competent, people don't trust their government (these two factors make it more likely that advice on what to do is ignored, and so far the advice on what to do has been extremely lackluster), health care infrastructure sorely lacking for a big % of the population, worker rights not really being there, welfare state underequipped, % of people living paycheck to paycheck who can't afford not going to work when they feel mild symptoms..
I mean I think European countries where several of these factors are lesser factors are still gonna get hit pretty hard, but for us, we're learning pretty fast from Italy, so hopefully, most of us don't get a worse trajectory at least. For you guys, I think it will be. Trondheim looks like summer vacation when 50%+ of people are on holiday right now - everybody is staying home.
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Things will definitely be very rough here, folks are doing their best to prepare for what is to come, but the sheer math of transmission is gonna push people to the edge. Folks comfortably thought there were only 3-4 cases in Ohio as yesterday started, and as it ended the state health authority estimated that 100k had already been infected.
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On March 13 2020 20:21 farvacola wrote:
Things will definitely be very rough here, folks are doing their best to prepare for what is to come, but the sheer math of transmission is gonna push people to the edge. Folks comfortably thought there were only 3-4 cases in Ohio as yesterday started, and as it ended the state health authority estimated that 100k had already been infected.
Until we can actually test everyone its going to be wild speculation. I assume the 100k number came from an exponential growth rate so its probably accurrate but at this point who knows.
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The US should be at the absolute top of the hotlist. If a country has travel-banned Iran and Italy, it should be travel-banning the states.
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Northern Ireland27001 Posts
On March 13 2020 20:06 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Honestly thinking the US is gonna be one of the western countries struggling the most with this. The combination of government isn't trustworthy/competent, people don't trust their government (these two factors make it more likely that advice on what to do is ignored, and so far the advice on what to do has been extremely lackluster), health care infrastructure sorely lacking for a big % of the population, worker rights not really being there, welfare state underequipped, % of people living paycheck to paycheck who can't afford not going to work when they feel mild symptoms..
I mean I think European countries where several of these factors are lesser factors are still gonna get hit pretty hard, but for us, we're learning pretty fast from Italy, so hopefully, most of us don't get a worse trajectory at least. For you guys, I think it will be. Trondheim looks like summer vacation when 50%+ of people are on holiday right now - everybody is staying home.
It does seem to be quite the shitshow, even the Tories over here are pumping money into sick pay so that workers don’t have to choose between being broke or coming to work and potentially transmitting the virus. Probably one of the least-mentioned facets of this crisis in general media coverage is precisely that, although I feel we’re well served in this particular thread.
Other European states and Asian states have had clear, coordinated and stringent responses. What is the US doing? This European travel ban makes little sense to me if it’s not covering US citizens, just seems like posturing to look decisive while not being so.
It’s also rather dispiriting to see how easy it is for governments to find money down the back of the sofa to keep the economy ticking over or to throw at the stock markets when it’s a virus, that isn’t there under normal conditions.
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Norway28814 Posts
Hm i think its rather reaffirming that there are spare funds available for this type of scenario that arent there normally, tbh
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Yeah. Situations like this is why we have those spare funds. If they were being used at every minor domestic crisis, there would be none of it left for a major one like this.
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On March 13 2020 22:19 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Hm i think its rather reaffirming that there are spare funds available for this type of scenario that arent there normally, tbh
I mean, most countries can borrow almost unlimited funds in case of emergency. It doesn't mean they "have" this money.
I am amazed by the discipline and the sacrifices countries and people are able to make. Oslo feels like zombie town, but everybody is keeping calm and doing all the right thing.
Wonder what will happen when the US get properly hit. With their crappy health coverage, their extremely vulnerable poorest communities, decentralized system and wreck of a leadership, it might end up not being pretty.
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On March 13 2020 22:39 Neneu wrote:
Yeah. Situations like this is why we have those spare funds. If they were being used at every minor domestic crisis, there would be none of it left for a major one like this.
This is actually a highly unsettled question, whether government spending, money supply, and inflation are as closely linked as economic orthodoxy holds.
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It is going to be a mess. I do wonder what happens when US demand for a variety of imported goods drops significantly though.
Is the world ready for the US to be in a recession with no major gatherings for a few quarters?
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On March 13 2020 22:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
It is going to be a mess. I do wonder what happens when US demand for a variety of imported goods drops significantly though.
Is the world ready for the US to be in a recession with no major gatherings for a few quarters?
Frankly it seems like we've been seeing economic growth for so long that no one remembers what a recession is even like. Feels like people thought that a fundamentally weak economy could be propped up by low interest rates forever, but that might have finally run its course after the longest economic expansion on record.
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Northern Ireland27001 Posts
On March 13 2020 22:41 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2020 22:19 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Hm i think its rather reaffirming that there are spare funds available for this type of scenario that arent there normally, tbh I mean, most countries can borrow almost unlimited funds in case of emergency. It doesn't mean they "have" this money. I am amazed by the discipline and the sacrifices countries and people are able to make. Oslo feels like zombie town, but everybody is keeping calm and doing all the right thing. Wonder what will happen when the US get properly hit. With their crappy health coverage, their extremely vulnerable poorest communities, decentralized system and wreck of a leadership, it might end up not being pretty.
There seems to be a rather different response across cultures, crudely speaking anyway. Anglo-Saxon land seems to be the worst (that I’ve seen)for this with our deeply ingrained greed is good culture.
As per my previous comments, there’s emergency spending on quarantining and screening and extra medical staff and there’s finding the money for things during an emergency that could be there anyway. Like the revolutionary idea that sick people should probably not go to work or what have you.
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On March 13 2020 22:53 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2020 22:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
It is going to be a mess. I do wonder what happens when US demand for a variety of imported goods drops significantly though.
Is the world ready for the US to be in a recession with no major gatherings for a few quarters? Frankly it seems like we've been seeing economic growth for so long that no one remembers what a recession is even like. Feels like people thought that a fundamentally weak economy could be propped up by low interest rates forever, but that might have finally run its course after the longest economic expansion on record.
I don't think a lot of people are really grasping how much of an economic collapse is coming. Just the sports teams,large gatherings ceasing in the US could basically bankrupt entire towns where everyone and the town itself invest huge portions of their annual budgets for specific events/gatherings that aren't going to happen. Then all of the chain impacts from the surrounding towns that count on the through traffic and haggling between vendors/customers about who is going to eat sunk costs in various orders that ricochet around the country and world.
For better or worse this may be the moderate catastrophe we needed to drive the drastic reorganizing of society we need. If we put a bandaid on it with emergency/temporary half-measures the outlook is very poor imo.
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Northern Ireland27001 Posts
On March 13 2020 22:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
It is going to be a mess. I do wonder what happens when US demand for a variety of imported goods drops significantly though.
Is the world ready for the US to be in a recession with no major gatherings for a few quarters?
Is it even ready for big chunks of Europe to be in that state?
If shit does hit the fan properly it could make 2008 seem like small fry, and without even the silver lining that reform of a particular sector could potentially happen in the wake of it.
It is rather instructive as to what can be done with sufficient will, we can quarantine and isolate people for extended periods and people are largely playing ball, makes efforts in other domains such as climate really pathetic by comparison.
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A few thoughts on why the markets are being hit so hard.
There are two different reasons, though they're of course related. The coronavirus and a loss of confidence in Trump. We all know why the coronavirus is hitting the economy everywhere - mass gatherings are being cancelled and all travel is halted from 1/7 of the World.
The other one, well. Markets are irrational, everyone knows this. Most of the rally after Trump was elected was always a little odd, in the sense that there was no real reason for the stock market to keep climbing as a whole as rapidly as it did. Swapping out an investment in green energy for investment in coal, sure, but that should've been very close to net zero transfer. That's at least my personal view. That isn't to say that it wouldn't have kept rising, but that the rate at which it did was a little unfounded - the economy wasn't significantly better in 2017/18 than it was in 2016 by any stats (unemployment was lower, but the rate at which it decreased wasn't as great since it was rather low to begin with). The tax cut increased stock buybacks and basically nothing else, and the increase I'm talking about started well before the tax cut.
My theory:
A lot of Republicans believed that the economy instantly started doing better when Trump was elected (there are plenty of stats on this, or at least them saying it to pollsters). This increase in confidence is what led to them investing more heavily, which is why the market kept increasing. I don't know that for SURE, but it seems very likely. The massively inept handling, by any measure, of the coronavirus, has led to some of them questioning that confidence. This handling wasn't revealed to be so bad until this week, and it wasn't unquestionably visible until that awful press conference Trump gave a couple of days ago. I can understand why people didn't think it was so bad a week ago, which is the last time I found a poll conducted, - Trump kept saying it wasn't bad and the various states were going along with that view.
The effects of the coronavirus being bad months out is true, but I don't think it's why the markets are so negative this week. They aren't usually very forward looking.
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On March 13 2020 23:17 Nevuk wrote:
A few thoughts on why the markets are being hit so hard.
There are two different reasons, though they're of course related. The coronavirus and a loss of confidence in Trump. We all know why the coronavirus is hitting the economy everywhere - mass gatherings are being cancelled and all travel is halted from 1/7 of the World.
The other one, well. Markets are irrational, everyone knows this. Most of the rally after Trump was elected was always a little odd, in the sense that there was no real reason for the stock market to keep climbing as a whole as rapidly as it did. Swapping out an investment in green energy for investment in coal, sure, but that should've been very close to net zero transfer. That's at least my personal view. That isn't to say that it wouldn't have kept rising, but that the rate at which it did was a little unfounded - the economy wasn't significantly better in 2017/18 than it was in 2016 by any stats (unemployment was lower, but the rate at which it decreased wasn't as great since it was rather low to begin with). The tax cut increased stock buybacks and basically nothing else, and the increase I'm talking about started well before the tax cut.
My theory:
A lot of Republicans believed that the economy instantly started doing better when Trump was elected (there are plenty of stats on this, or at least them saying it to pollsters). This increase in confidence is what led to them investing more heavily, which is why the market kept increasing. I don't know that for SURE, but it seems very likely. The massively inept handling, by any measure, of the coronavirus, has led to some of them questioning that confidence. This handling wasn't revealed to be so bad until this week, and it wasn't unquestionably visible until that awful press conference Trump gave a couple of days ago. I can understand why people didn't think it was so bad a week ago, which is the last time I found a poll conducted, - Trump kept saying it wasn't bad and the various states were going along with that view.
The effects of the coronavirus being bad months out is true, but I don't think it's why the markets are so negative this week. They aren't usually very forward looking.
The jump in the market is super easy and super simple. He cut corporate tax rates. Doing that is ALWAYS going to boost the market. Then when he cut those taxes instead of investing in their workforce more a lot of companies did stock buy backs. That pumps the market even more.
There is more to it than that, but this is a real simple base of it. You add that with pretty decent job growth/ low unemployment numbers and you are going to get a climbing market.
The issue is when a market is based on tax cuts as its base.... well as soon as you hit that a bit it comes down
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On March 13 2020 23:04 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2020 22:53 LegalLord wrote:On March 13 2020 22:47 GreenHorizons wrote:
It is going to be a mess. I do wonder what happens when US demand for a variety of imported goods drops significantly though.
Is the world ready for the US to be in a recession with no major gatherings for a few quarters? Frankly it seems like we've been seeing economic growth for so long that no one remembers what a recession is even like. Feels like people thought that a fundamentally weak economy could be propped up by low interest rates forever, but that might have finally run its course after the longest economic expansion on record. I don't think a lot of people are really grasping how much of an economic collapse is coming. Just the sports teams,large gatherings ceasing in the US could basically bankrupt entire towns where everyone and the town itself invest huge portions of their annual budgets for specific events/gatherings that aren't going to happen. Then all of the chain impacts from the surrounding towns that count on the through traffic and haggling between vendors/customers about who is going to eat sunk costs in various orders that ricochet around the country and world. For better or worse this may be the moderate catastrophe we needed to drive the drastic reorganizing of society we need. If we put a bandaid on it with emergency/temporary half-measures the outlook is very poor imo.
In countries that are not led by absolute idiots, the state will inject massive amount of cash into the economy to make sure economic collapse doesn't happen. Denmark is already talking of a plan of 50 billion dollars. Just like it can find trillions of dollars for a war, a major country can find trillions of dollars for such a crisis.
So the Corona crisis will be costly, for sure, but that's exactly what state intervention is for. Unless you are completely braindead and think that this is socialism and that's a plot and so on and so forth.
Of course the fact that the party leading the US got their economic understanding from Atlas Shrugged and are ready to bend any fact to match their unsustainable ideology is worrying. We could see a 21st century version of the irish Potatoe Famine, where free market dogma is more important than thousands and thousands of lives.
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The economy has been anemic for a good 5-6 years now. The stock market has been doing well, by virtue of a period of never-ending cheap money. That’s led to an endless supply of terrible businesses that have kept afloat with infinite borrowing. That’s kept the unemployment rate low as well, albeit with shitty jobs that keep most people marginally afloat. Even the corporate tax cuts led to more dividends and stock buybacks than actual useful investment. Everyone involved (businesses, consumers, etc) has been accumulating some serious debt in the meantime.
The common mythos in the economics world is that nothing bad ever happens with an economy held up like that until the interest rates finally go up. We just finally found an external shock that will cause the system to tumble deep into the red even when the rates are low.
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EPT
