EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 1906
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
A few things to note: - their means of contacting participants was landline and online survey only. No cell/mobile phone. Roughly 2/3rds of their data was from landlines, which will obviously skews their results. Rasmussen previously got a lot of heat for skipping mobile since it skewed their results, so it's odd these folks have gone with this. The majority of pollsters now incorporate calling cell phones into their polling methodology - they polled 66.4% white people, and 45% of respondents were 50+ - this is the only poll in the last two weeks with net positive approval for Trump, which is a big red flag given all other polling done in this same time period suggests otherwise by a big margin (even the most recent Rasmussen poll has him at 46/52 approval/disapproval and Rasmussen tends to skew pro-Republican). For comparison, most other polling has Trump at ~40-44%/50-52% approval/disapproval, There have only been 3 polls in the last 2 weeks in which Trump had less than 50% disapproval, and this Emerson poll is one of them - This is the big one and gets to my point on why I think 538 needs to show undecided on things: 11.8% of respondents were undecided on impeachment, and 45%(!!!!!!) say they may change their vote from who they said they support for the next election - They somehow managed to end up with 11.7% of their respondents be people who voted third party last election, which is strange and out of proportion with the number of third party votes by double (~5% of folks voted third party in 2016) So it certainly makes sense why this poll is rather off compared to others.This also drives home the point that poll aggregates are a double-edged sword. They're convenient when used to look at trends and that's about it. They obfuscate too much information and methodology to be useful on a day-to-day basis, and it's much more useful to just look at the polling data itself instead. | ||
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
In the latest sign Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend freely on a prospective presidential bid, the billionaire has begun booking a huge quantity of TV ad time in media markets across the country — including the one that’s home to President Donald Trump’s winter White House, Mar-a-Lago. The ads will begin airing as soon as Monday. As of the close of business on Friday, Advertising Analytics tracked buys of around $34 million in reservations so far, touching parts of all but two of the lower 48 states. “This buy is MASSIVE,” Ben Taber, an analyst for the television ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics, said in an email to POLITICO earlier Friday. "I think it‘s going to be the biggest buy of all time," he wrote. Then-President Barack Obama had a $30 million, one-week long buy in 2012, Taber said. Asked early Friday about the ad buy as the first reports trickled in, Bloomberg aide Howard Wolfson texted back an animated GIF that read: “Stay Tuned.” A spokesperson said he had "nothing to share at the moment." “Bloomberg could spend more in one day than other presidential candidates spend in an entire campaign’s lifespan," said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic consultant pollster who worked for President Obama’s campaigns. "What makes the Bloomberg campaign budget so amazing is that there is no budget. Everything is attainable....We haven’t seen a presidential campaign like one that Michael Bloomberg could run.” https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/22/michael-bloomberg-ad-buy-2020-election-072893 | ||
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redlightdistrict
382 Posts
On November 24 2019 02:14 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote: Bloomberg is really going to run it seems? Reports are he's done a 34 million dollar ad buy for next week, the highest of all time. Will be 'interesting' too see how far money will go in getting votes. https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/22/michael-bloomberg-ad-buy-2020-election-072893 Bloomberg has been setting this up since last week when he was apologizing for stop and frisk https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-speech.html With Biden being hammered by the Impeachment trail, Gabbard poaching away supporters from Warren, and Sanders health concerns, Bloomberg sensed an opportunity for him to capitalize upon. Him owning one of the largest newspapers and Tic Tok doesn't hurt either. | ||
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Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
On November 24 2019 02:14 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote: Bloomberg is really going to run it seems? Reports are he's done a 34 million dollar ad buy for next week, the highest of all time. Will be 'interesting' too see how far money will go in getting votes. + Show Spoiler + In the latest sign Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend freely on a prospective presidential bid, the billionaire has begun booking a huge quantity of TV ad time in media markets across the country — including the one that’s home to President Donald Trump’s winter White House, Mar-a-Lago. The ads will begin airing as soon as Monday. As of the close of business on Friday, Advertising Analytics tracked buys of around $34 million in reservations so far, touching parts of all but two of the lower 48 states. “This buy is MASSIVE,” Ben Taber, an analyst for the television ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics, said in an email to POLITICO earlier Friday. "I think it‘s going to be the biggest buy of all time," he wrote. Then-President Barack Obama had a $30 million, one-week long buy in 2012, Taber said. Asked early Friday about the ad buy as the first reports trickled in, Bloomberg aide Howard Wolfson texted back an animated GIF that read: “Stay Tuned.” A spokesperson said he had "nothing to share at the moment." “Bloomberg could spend more in one day than other presidential candidates spend in an entire campaign’s lifespan," said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic consultant pollster who worked for President Obama’s campaigns. "What makes the Bloomberg campaign budget so amazing is that there is no budget. Everything is attainable....We haven’t seen a presidential campaign like one that Michael Bloomberg could run.” https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/22/michael-bloomberg-ad-buy-2020-election-072893 I still don't get why he's bothering unless he's planning purely to do so to absorb attacks from Trump and deflect negative attention away from the actual candidates. Support for Bloomberg's candidacy has been horrid in the polls. Even in that Emerson poll, less than 1% of people who identified as Democrats wanted him to be candidate, and 16% wanted him to participate in the primaries at all. For comparison, they also asked about Hillary Clinton (even though she can't because of filing dates, etc.) and more people wanted her to run in the primaries than Bloomberg. Something I also thought of: given Facebook's wretched policy on fact-checking ads from candidates (they will fact check third party groups but not candidates), what's to stop someone filthy rich like Bloomberg from running, then going on a massive ad blitz against Trump on Facebook and drag him through the mud as much as possible? That's what I'd do if I were in his shoes: participate without the intention of actually running, and then instead use my new-found first party advertising powers to go after Trump exclusively while helping the other candidates. Use all that Bloomberg "fuck you" money to fill the Fox News advertising with anti-Trump messaging. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
The CEO of Naftogaz is willing to testify against Giuliani, and help connect the dots for us... https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/everything-is-connected-ukraine-state-gas-firms-ceo-willing-to-testify-against-rudy-giuliani/ | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23929 Posts
On November 24 2019 02:14 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote: Bloomberg is really going to run it seems? Reports are he's done a 34 million dollar ad buy for next week, the highest of all time. Will be 'interesting' too see how far money will go in getting votes. https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/22/michael-bloomberg-ad-buy-2020-election-072893 Lol, that's more than Booker and Klobuchar have raised their entire campaign combined. He could spend that much on ads +the same amount on staff every day from today till November next year and still be 10x+ more wealthy than the other billionaire running for the Dem nom. | ||
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Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
On November 24 2019 05:10 Nouar wrote: The next couple of monthes are really going to be amusing. I cannot wait to see what will befall Giuliani. It seems his ukrainian allies and others are just leaving him to hang dry. Is he going to take the fall by himself ? Is he going to go down with a bang ? Since he's at the root of this whole Ukrainian impeachment inquiry with his lies and ukrainian interests, I am looking forward to seeing how everything will connect, and who will just implode... The CEO of Naftogaz is willing to testify against Giuliani, and help connect the dots for us... https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/everything-is-connected-ukraine-state-gas-firms-ceo-willing-to-testify-against-rudy-giuliani/ There's gonna be a lot of backstabbery going on among all of these folks that'll be pretty funny to watch. Parnas has essentially flipped on Trump and Giuliani and it sounds like he may have documents backing his claims up. Giuliani went on Fox the other day and essentially said he has "insurance" against Trump turning on him and throwing him under the bus. Parnas is also willing to testify against Devin Nunes (who, for the record, hired Parnas to help with some investigation Nunes was conducting in 2018 involving Ukraine), claiming that Nunes met with Ukrainian officials from the previous government looking for dirt on Joe Biden during a 2018 trip to Vienna. It sounds like Nunes is about to be subjected to his second ethics investigation in under two years based on comments from other folks in the government (which makes that amazing face he made after the Sondland testimony make a lot more sense). Pompeo was dragged into this thing by Sondland, and now the State Department released info as part of an FOIA claim that shows a clear link between Pompeo and Giuliani via Trump's ex-assistant who arranged a phone call between the two. I'm sure Trump has already made sure a spot was saved under the bus for Pompeo in case things get sufficiently ugly. It's going to be a bunch of grifters attempting to throw each other under the bus while trying to save their own skin, and the desperation we are seeing from them all already is pretty amusing. Will anything happen from it all? Who knows, but it'll be fun to watch. That's for sure. It's like watching a bunch of kids get caught cheating on a test trying to get everyone else in trouble to save themselves. | ||
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ZerOCoolSC2
9052 Posts
I don't have high hopes, but there needs to be a clear message sent. I don't want to go McCarthy on the government, but there needs to be some body investigating everyone in the higher levels of government constantly. Scare them straight, so to say. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On November 24 2019 07:52 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: The on thing I think most of us want to see come from all of this, is that the corruption, grifting, and unethical behavior slows down immediately and in a perfect world, stops altogether. This has to be one of the most corrupt administrations in history and we can only wish that the voting citizens do their duty and get them out of office. From local to DC. I don't have high hopes, but there needs to be a clear message sent. I don't want to go McCarthy on the government, but there needs to be some body investigating everyone in the higher levels of government constantly. Scare them straight, so to say. Half of your country doesn't think that's true, though. They only think the other guys are corrupt. Even now, the general right wing approach is that Trump did nothing wrong. Or has Fox started admitting Trump's looking bad here? | ||
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Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
On November 24 2019 08:09 iamthedave wrote: Half of your country doesn't think that's true, though. They only think the other guys are corrupt. Even now, the general right wing approach is that Trump did nothing wrong. Or has Fox started admitting Trump's looking bad here? It depends on the Fox News host. Chris Wallace has not been sugarcoating things in the way other Fox hosts have and has been actually reporting on the hearings and stuff. Same with one or two others and a couple of their regular guests. But yes, the Fox & Friends hosts, Hannity, Ingraham, etc. are essentially saying some combination of "What happened isn't impeachable", "What happened isn't illegal", "He's allowed to do this", and "He did nothing wrong". Right wing media has been general running with the Republican narrative that the hearings are a sham, that the witnesses are hand-picked by Schiff, they are testifying things that aren't true, all the testimony is just hearsay, the Democrats just want to get revenge for the 2016 election, and so on. It's pretty predictable and in line with how they've handled past events of a similar nature. The Republicans grandstand and put on a show during the public hearings and then the right wing media run with it. | ||
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redlightdistrict
382 Posts
https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-charged-boyfriends-suicide-being-145546553.html You, dressed in a white sweater and black pants, didn’t speak during the proceedings. She was taken into custody in handcuffs after the judge set her bail at $5,000. She posted bail soon afterward and was released. You, who was born in South Korea and is a naturalized U.S. citizen, was also ordered to surrender her passport and remain in Massachusetts. Her next court date is in January, and her case won’t go to trial until November 2020. Prosecutors say You and Alexander Urtula, 22, of Cedar Grove, New Jersey, exchanged more than 75,000 texts in the last two months of their turbulent, 18-month relationship, with You sending the majority of them. They say You isolated Urtula from his friends, urged him multiple times to “go kill yourself” and called him “worthless” in a constant barrage of messages. Urtula died in Boston on May 20, just minutes before his Boston College graduation. During You’s arraignment, assistant prosecutor Caitlin Grasso said the two Boston College students had met through the university’s Filipino student society. But You, she said, became upset after learning Urtula was still communicating with an ex-girlfriend. Grasso read from some of the thousands messages You sent to Urtula, many laden with expletives and sent in one-word bursts and capital letters. She also detailed how You, who withdrew from the university over the summer, forced Urtula to block his friends on social media and regularly monitored his location through his smartphone’s GPS. If you is convicted, this could set a prescient in America for people being held accountable for someone's else choice to commit suicide. This is a real life case of Sydney Barringer from the movie Magnolia + Show Spoiler + | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23929 Posts
On November 24 2019 08:09 iamthedave wrote: Half of your country doesn't think that's true, though. They only think the other guys are corrupt. Even now, the general right wing approach is that Trump did nothing wrong. Or has Fox started admitting Trump's looking bad here? Republicans watch fox news, and some independents, but I imagine the ~20% of Democrats and ~55% of independents absorb the same media as the Democrats that support impeachment and still don't support it themselves. One reason they never broke 50% support is because Democrats refuse to confront why that is. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22308 Posts
On November 24 2019 09:25 redlightdistrict wrote: Being held responsible for pressuring someone into suicide is not a bad thing for society.You has been charged with involuntary manslaughter for the involvement in a Man's taking his own life. This could set a prescient in America for people being held accountable for someone's else choice to commit suicide. https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-charged-boyfriends-suicide-being-145546553.html This isn't just because they happen to know eachother. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45765 Posts
On November 24 2019 02:55 jrkirby wrote: Why would Bloomberg run as a democrat? I thought he was obviously a republican. Because he has a 0% chance of beating Trump in the Republican primary, as opposed to a 0.00001% chance of winning the Democratic primary. Also, Deval Patrick cancelled an event of his because literally only two people showed up lol. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26745 Posts
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Excludos
Norway8254 Posts
On November 24 2019 09:25 redlightdistrict wrote: You has been charged with involuntary manslaughter for the involvement in a Man's taking his own life. https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-charged-boyfriends-suicide-being-145546553.html If you is convicted, this could set a prescient in America for people being held accountable for someone's else choice to commit suicide. This is a real life case of Sydney Barringer from the movie Magnolia + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec51smvcsDY Did you even read the whole case? This is mental abuse in this case was on another level. They sent 75000 messages over the course of 2 months, and she would pressure him into answering at any time to the detriment of sleep. She also repeatedly told him to go kill himself, or she would. The messages, which are public, are horrible. Besides, this isn't the first time this has happened, so there's no precedent to set. Pressuring someone into taking their own lives is not ok. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35172 Posts
On November 24 2019 16:47 Excludos wrote: Did you even read the whole case? This is mental abuse in this case was on another level. They sent 75000 messages over the course of 2 months, and she would pressure him into answering at any time to the detriment of sleep. She also repeatedly told him to go kill himself, or she would. The messages, which are public, are horrible. Besides, this isn't the first time this has happened, so there's no precedent to set. Pressuring someone into taking their own lives is not ok. Because 75000 texts is such a large number, for context that's at best(two 31 day months back to back) ~1210 texts from a single person a day with an average of 1 text every ~1m11s. | ||
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