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On January 18 2019 23:32 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2019 23:30 Plansix wrote:
Movies are also cash grabs, but we talk about the positive and negative messages within them. The reductive dismissal of it as just a commercial is another vector of attack used by people uncomfortable with message. Nonsense - but its a nice sideways character attack. I'm perfectly comfortable discussing toxic masculinity and all of the problems it brings about. I'm against the advertising industry - the mass manipulation of entire populations for no other reason than to profit at others' expense. I'm especially against this when it co-opts an important message and devalues it in the process. Movies have artistic value, and their monetary gain is a product of the sum of that artistic value. Their purpose is to be a good movie and make money off the back of that. The purpose of an ad is to manipulate you into buying something else - the two are completely different. Show nested quote +On January 18 2019 23:30 Plansix wrote:
This is some deeply cynical bullshit that devalues any human labor and effort that was put into that commercial. Guilty. I have absolutely no respect for the advertising industry as a whole and I stick by that. If people want to make art they should do so in a less cynical fashion.
Two words: Product Placement.
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On January 18 2019 23:56 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2019 23:32 Jockmcplop wrote:On January 18 2019 23:30 Plansix wrote:
Movies are also cash grabs, but we talk about the positive and negative messages within them. The reductive dismissal of it as just a commercial is another vector of attack used by people uncomfortable with message. Nonsense - but its a nice sideways character attack. I'm perfectly comfortable discussing toxic masculinity and all of the problems it brings about. I'm against the advertising industry - the mass manipulation of entire populations for no other reason than to profit at others' expense. I'm especially against this when it co-opts an important message and devalues it in the process. Movies have artistic value, and their monetary gain is a product of the sum of that artistic value. Their purpose is to be a good movie and make money off the back of that. The purpose of an ad is to manipulate you into buying something else - the two are completely different. On January 18 2019 23:30 Plansix wrote:
This is some deeply cynical bullshit that devalues any human labor and effort that was put into that commercial. Guilty. I have absolutely no respect for the advertising industry as a whole and I stick by that. If people want to make art they should do so in a less cynical fashion. Two words: Product Placement.
Yes I mentioned this later on in the next post I made - and how product placement literally makes a movie worse. If the movie producers didn't gain monetarily from product placement do you think it would happen in the same way? Not a chance because its distracting and can even completely ruin a scene - but sometimes its necessary to get the movie made for financial reasons.
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On January 18 2019 23:19 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2019 21:12 Gorsameth wrote:On January 18 2019 21:09 On_Slaught wrote:
Well if Mueller actually has multiple pieces of corroborating evidence that Trump instructed Cohen to lie to Congress then you can turn out the lights because the party is over. Even Barr testified this week that the President instructing someone to lie would be a crime.
Or at least that is what id like to believe. I can't imagine that there is a literal email, letter, or voice recording of Trump saying this. Without that I imagine many Republicans wont buy it. The cynic in my thinks Trump testifying before Congress that he told Cohen to lie would not be good enough to get Republicans to turn on him. It's definitely a crime, but how crimey is it in the big scheme of things? My crime-dar is a little out of whack these days.
Oh they'll dismiss it. nothing short of a signed letter to Vladimir Putin with a supporting conference call where Trump literally asks for advice on how he can make Russia's life better would count for the believers.
Even then they'd probably say it was a 'smart business decision' or 'good negotiating'.
If you're hoping on impeachment... stop hurting yourselves. This GOP is not impeaching its President, not after going so all in on kissing his arse and protecting him on every stupid thing he says and does, and his base aren't going to disbelieve him. They literally think anything negative to Trump is fakenews not to be believed.
So if the GOP turns on Trump, the GOP are the traitors, not the ones punishing a (maybe) traitor. Ergo, the GOP aren't turning on Trump. McConnell knows what side his bread is buttered on, and that side has no relation whatsoever to moral rectitude.
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Assuming the Buzzfeed story is both true and has strong provable evidence behind it, I doubt the Republicans are going to be able to put up much of a defense. That is literally the exact same thing Nixon was going to get impeached for.
The other problem is that Trump it isn’t 2017 anymore. Trump’s White House is completely dysfunctional and the government is shut down. There is no signs that Trump is going to stabilize or be able to deal with the House Democrats. You are not seeing it publically, but reports are that Republicans freaking out because they know Trump won’t recover. It is only going to get worse.
Now the question is if we can somehow get Pence rolled up in all of this too.
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William Barr, who is almost certainly going to be the Attorney General, would probably agree it is at least obstruction of justice if the report is true. Check the bottom of the first page and the continuing paragraph on the second page.
https://www.scribd.com/document/396090342/June-2018-Barr-Memo-to-DOJ-Muellers-Obstruction-Theory-1
Even being grilled by Klobuchar and Graham he said yes to their questions on the same matter.
On January 19 2019 00:08 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2019 23:19 ticklishmusic wrote:On January 18 2019 21:12 Gorsameth wrote:On January 18 2019 21:09 On_Slaught wrote:
Well if Mueller actually has multiple pieces of corroborating evidence that Trump instructed Cohen to lie to Congress then you can turn out the lights because the party is over. Even Barr testified this week that the President instructing someone to lie would be a crime.
Or at least that is what id like to believe. I can't imagine that there is a literal email, letter, or voice recording of Trump saying this. Without that I imagine many Republicans wont buy it. The cynic in my thinks Trump testifying before Congress that he told Cohen to lie would not be good enough to get Republicans to turn on him. It's definitely a crime, but how crimey is it in the big scheme of things? My crime-dar is a little out of whack these days. Oh they'll dismiss it. nothing short of a signed letter to Vladimir Putin with a supporting conference call where Trump literally asks for advice on how he can make Russia's life better would count for the believers. Even then they'd probably say it was a 'smart business decision' or 'good negotiating'. If you're hoping on impeachment... stop hurting yourselves. This GOP is not impeaching its President, not after going so all in on kissing his arse and protecting him on every stupid thing he says and does, and his base aren't going to disbelieve him. They literally think anything negative to Trump is fakenews not to be believed. So if the GOP turns on Trump, the GOP are the traitors, not the ones punishing a (maybe) traitor. Ergo, the GOP aren't turning on Trump. McConnell knows what side his bread is buttered on, and that side has no relation whatsoever to moral rectitude.
I have no hopes the Republican senators will break ranks and ever give the 2/3rds majority to impeach, and with Trump's fervent support base who won't change their minds, the numbers just aren't there. But this article that lays out the argument for impeachment and got some attention argues impeachment is worth it alone to publicly air out the dirty laundry, and even a failed impeachment carries repercussions beyond the president. It either sinks their future political aspirations, or the ones of their successors.
+ Show Spoiler +And what if the Senate does not convict Trump? The fifth benefit of impeachment is that, even when it fails to remove a president, it severely damages his political prospects. Johnson, abandoned by Republicans and rejected by Democrats, did not run for a second term. Nixon resigned, and Gerald Ford, his successor, lost his bid for reelection. Clinton weathered the process and finished out his second term, but despite his personal popularity, he left an electorate hungering for change. “Many, including Al Gore, think that the impeachment cost Gore the election,” Paul Rosenzweig, a former senior member of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr’s team, told me. “So it has consequences and resonates outside the narrow four corners of impeachment.” If Congress were to impeach Trump, whatever short-term surge he might enjoy as supporters rallied to his defense, his long-term political fate would likely be sealed.
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i think except for the Turtle, senate GOP collectively dump Trump the second it is clear that the hot air coming out of trumps mouth isn’t enough to keep the boat afloat anymore.
in 2018 i was skeptical that this time would ever come before 2020, but its looking like a possibility from here, now.
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Congress has canceled a number of travel plans because the White House leaked their commercial flight information, causing the state department to up the security assessment due to the increased threat. I don’t think we make it to 2020, ya’all.
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On January 18 2019 23:30 Plansix wrote:
Movies are also cash grabs, but we talk about the positive and negative messages within them. The reductive dismissal of it as just a commercial is another vector of attack used by people uncomfortable with message.
I wouldn't say movies aren't made with the primary goal of making money, because they are. The key difference is that the movie is a product to which viewers give value, whereas advertisements by themselves only serve to sell a product.
Let's be honest here, Gilette is riding a political/social movement to make profit and the execs behind it probably don't care about the message itself.
Regardless of the question of whether toxic masculinity exists and is a problem (for the record I think it is), I think the ad is extremely distateful.
If you don't understand why so many 'men' hate the ad. Think about whether you would say to Muslims that they can be better than terrorists. Because that's the same thing as when you say Men can be better than rapists.
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On January 19 2019 00:33 explosivedog wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2019 23:30 Plansix wrote:
Movies are also cash grabs, but we talk about the positive and negative messages within them. The reductive dismissal of it as just a commercial is another vector of attack used by people uncomfortable with message. I wouldn't say movies aren't made with the primary goal of making money, because they are. The key difference is that the movie is a product to which viewers give value, whereas advertisements by themselves only serve to sell a product. Let's be honest here, Gilette is riding a political/social movement to make profit and the execs behind it probably don't care about the message itself. Regardless of the question of whether toxic masculinity exists and is a problem (for the record I think it is), I think the ad is extremely distateful. If you don't understand why so many 'men' hate the ad. Think about whether you would say to Muslims that they can be better than terrorists. Because that's the same thing as when you say Men can be better than rapists.
Hello account created today to respond to my post in good faith.
There was never a question if men could be better than the worst aspects of toxic masculinity. The ad didn’t say anything that wasn’t already taught to me by my father. The outrage surrounding isn’t confusing at all. Men with low self worth that subscribe to the worst aspects of toxic masculinity feel attacked and lash out. Because they are kinda slow and have never heard of Barbra Streisand.
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Based on my talks with folks who were around for Nixon, impeachment seemed impossible for a long time, and then over the course of around 11 days or so, the whole thing was over and Nixon was peacing out.
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On January 19 2019 00:48 farvacola wrote:
Based on my talks with folks who were around for Nixon, impeachment seemed impossible for a long time, and then over the course of around 11 days or so, the whole thing was over and Nixon was peacing out.
All it takes if feb 7th to come.
First question
"Let's just get this out of the way because these reports are disturbing, did the president instruct you to lie to congress?'
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On January 19 2019 00:48 farvacola wrote:
Based on my talks with folks who were around for Nixon, impeachment seemed impossible for a long time, and then over the course of around 11 days or so, the whole thing was over and Nixon was peacing out.
With Trump's disposition I don't know if he has the capacity to resign, unless he was dragged out screaming and clawing because his family begged him to do it for their protection.
Trump is attacking Cohen's honesty and tweeting out he's only doing it to protect himself and reduce his sentence, but this case isn't so dependent on Cohen because they apparently have physical evidence.
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Yep, the existence and reliability of documentary evidence is going to be key, I think. And it increasingly sounds like Mueller has some.
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On January 19 2019 01:04 PhoenixVoid wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2019 00:48 farvacola wrote:
Based on my talks with folks who were around for Nixon, impeachment seemed impossible for a long time, and then over the course of around 11 days or so, the whole thing was over and Nixon was peacing out. With Trump's disposition I don't know if he has the capacity to resign, unless he was dragged out screaming and clawing because his family begged him to do it for their protection. Trump is attacking Cohen's honesty and tweeting out he's only doing it to protect himself and reduce his sentence, but this case isn't so dependent on Cohen because they apparently have physical evidence.
Trump doesn’t fire people in person. He hates in person conflict because he is a coward who is terrified of losing the upper hand. I doubt he is going to be put on trial before the entire senate.
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I mean, Trump's approach to defending himself from allegations like this just far has been backpedaling and admitting someone else did it/he didn't know them (ignoring the naked lies which he just repeats on occasion that tend to get walked back by him). I'm not sure how that approach can work here if there's evidence beyond Cohen's word he was told to lie, so this is a watershed moment of sorts.
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Looking at Trump's twitter, I think Trump.exe has crashed.
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On January 19 2019 00:18 Plansix wrote:
Assuming the Buzzfeed story is both true and has strong provable evidence behind it, I doubt the Republicans are going to be able to put up much of a defense. That is literally the exact same thing Nixon was going to get impeached for.
The other problem is that Trump it isn’t 2017 anymore. Trump’s White House is completely dysfunctional and the government is shut down. There is no signs that Trump is going to stabilize or be able to deal with the House Democrats. You are not seeing it publically, but reports are that Republicans freaking out because they know Trump won’t recover. It is only going to get worse.
Now the question is if we can somehow get Pence rolled up in all of this too.
My problem with this narrative is we've been at 'point of no return' for Trump before and then his popularity spiked to its highest ever levels.
As for Nixon, he wasn't done until the Republicans turned on him (admittedly because they knew he was in the wrong). But the thing is they didn't go in believing it. I find it hard to believe most of the GOP of 2019 don't know full well that Trump is guilty of a ton of different immoral things, but they don't care because he helps them get their agenda over.
The media environment is also different, and also helps Trump.
He is 100% entirely safe unless his base turns on him, because the GOP aren't going to unless the base is on their side. If the Democrats make major gains in the Senate in two years, it might be different, of course.
In addition, most of the Republicans who lost in the last set of elections were ones who weren't all in supporters of the Orange One, meaning the current GOP is even less likely to dump Trump than the old one. Almost all of his enemies are gone or (in McCain's case literally dead) otherwise out of politics.
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I'd like to think Trump would fight but I imagine he would resign and have Pence pardon him before we got too deep into impeachment/indictments.
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On January 19 2019 01:26 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2019 00:18 Plansix wrote:
Assuming the Buzzfeed story is both true and has strong provable evidence behind it, I doubt the Republicans are going to be able to put up much of a defense. That is literally the exact same thing Nixon was going to get impeached for.
The other problem is that Trump it isn’t 2017 anymore. Trump’s White House is completely dysfunctional and the government is shut down. There is no signs that Trump is going to stabilize or be able to deal with the House Democrats. You are not seeing it publically, but reports are that Republicans freaking out because they know Trump won’t recover. It is only going to get worse.
Now the question is if we can somehow get Pence rolled up in all of this too. My problem with this narrative is we've been at 'point of no return' for Trump before and then his popularity spiked to its highest ever levels. As for Nixon, he wasn't done until the Republicans turned on him (admittedly because they knew he was in the wrong). But the thing is they didn't go in believing it. I find it hard to believe most of the GOP of 2019 don't know full well that Trump is guilty of a ton of different immoral things, but they don't care because he helps them get their agenda over. The media environment is also different, and also helps Trump. He is 100% entirely safe unless his base turns on him, because the GOP aren't going to unless the base is on their side. If the Democrats make major gains in the Senate in two years, it might be different, of course. In addition, most of the Republicans who lost in the last set of elections were ones who weren't all in supporters of the Orange One, meaning the current GOP is even less likely to dump Trump than the old one. Almost all of his enemies are gone or (in McCain's case literally dead) otherwise out of politics.
I think you are not taking into account the long term damage that is being done by Trump. There are reports today that GDP could drop by 1% due to the shut down. At four weeks of the shut down, the employees are going to start defaulting on mortgages, car payments and rent. It will only get worse. At some point the GOP in the Senate are going to break ranks because they will have to win re-election. Even McConnell. It is just a question of what the breaking point is.
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EPT
