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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1016

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7887 Posts
January 03 2019 10:20 GMT
#20301

And meanwhile the POTUS talks basic history with more or less the same mastery than a 3 years old trying to explain the plot of spongebob squarepants.

That clip is completely surrealist.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21665 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-03 10:56:40
January 03 2019 10:56 GMT
#20302
On January 03 2019 18:49 iamthedave wrote:
So now McConnell's said he outright won't discuss or vote on anything the Democrats send.

What happens if both sides just dig in their heels and refuse? Or more likely, the Democrats keep coming up with reasonable bills and Mitch just refuses to table them?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shutdown-mcconnell/senate-will-not-consider-house-democratic-bills-to-end-shutdown-republican-mcconnell-idUSKCN1OX01I?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=reddit.com
You keep sending clean CR's to the Senate until the country explodes.
The Democrats should have learned a valuable lesson under Obama.
You do not negotiate with terrorists or Republicans.

It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 03 2019 14:03 GMT
#20303
McConnell can say that, but he doesn’t have the margins to keep that up long term. The members of his own party will start revolting, especially with so many of them up for re-election in 2020.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8982 Posts
January 03 2019 14:08 GMT
#20304
This administration should be taught in high school and college on how not to govern. If there is a wrong way, this administration is doing it and doing it exceptionally well. While I look forward to watching the carnage in 2 months unfold, this is just embarrassing as a nation.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
January 03 2019 14:18 GMT
#20305
The courts run out of backup money on the 11th, so look to that date as a possible watershed for havoc.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 03 2019 14:31 GMT
#20306
On January 03 2019 23:18 farvacola wrote:
The courts run out of backup money on the 11th, so look to that date as a possible watershed for havoc.

What court systems does that include? I know immigration courts are going to be backed up. But does that also cover bankruptcy courts?
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
January 03 2019 14:47 GMT
#20307
So the judiciary manages all three levels of article III courts, magistrate’s courts, and bankruptcy courts, so all of those will be affected come the 11th. All of the other non-article III courts are likely already in full shutdown mode because each belongs to an agency directly impacted (immigration courts under the DoJ, tax courts under the IRS, SEC admin hearings, etc.). Soon, pretty much everything will come to a halt save for some criminal actions where speedy trial rights are in play and civil rights cases involving ongoing human well-being (think DHS children in cages cases).
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 03 2019 15:16 GMT
#20308
Great. A bunch of clients are going to be losing their god damn minds if the bankruptcy courts shut down. 80% of them will want to put everything on super extra hold so not to violate any potential stay/order because they are rightfully terrified of the BK courts. The 20% will assume all bankruptcy ceases to exist because they are investors and see all law as a creator of lesser mortals. I look forward to this dichotomy of deeply stupid emails and phone calls. It will be as much fun as the phone calls about FHA closings where I just tell people "There are no guidelines for the goverment shutting down. It isn't supposed to happen."

I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8982 Posts
January 03 2019 15:28 GMT
#20309
I also do not think this will continue past February, as tax season for a lot of people starts around then. People are going to want to pay their taxes and get a refund if they are owed. They also don't want to be hit with any kind of fees/penalties because people can't do their fucking jobs and mistakes are made. When this fiasco hits the low-income taxpayer's taxes, the shit is gonna truly hit the fan.
iamthedave
Profile Joined February 2011
England2814 Posts
January 03 2019 16:08 GMT
#20310
Over on the other thread, Greenhorizons feels the Democrats are conceding tons of ground to Trump; be this so? All I'm seeing from (un)merry old England is stuff saying the Dems are holding fast.
I'm not bad at Starcraft; I just think winning's rude.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-03 17:18:47
January 03 2019 16:17 GMT
#20311
A negative opinion of the Democrats, so you don’t say? I would take any assessment like that with a grain of salt. Very little has happened since the shut down and the Democrats just got sworn in today. I’m not impressed with some of the new rules they are putting in place, but I don’t see anything that makes me think they are giving up much. Or anything really. I would need to see whatever article is saying they are giving things up.

Edit; It is the PayGo rule in the House, which a bunch of progressive have jumped on as being terrible. It seems to be the brain child on conservative democrats who want to run on not blowing up the budget since the Republicans already did that. Its stupid, but also easily changed since it is only a house rule on originating bills. It wouldn't impact final votes, consolidated bills. I'm not even it impacts the amendment process.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Womwomwom
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
5930 Posts
January 03 2019 16:37 GMT
#20312
The only Democrat who got bodied hard during this shutdown period has been Elizabeth Warren.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15684 Posts
January 03 2019 16:40 GMT
#20313
On January 04 2019 01:08 iamthedave wrote:
Over on the other thread, Greenhorizons feels the Democrats are conceding tons of ground to Trump; be this so? All I'm seeing from (un)merry old England is stuff saying the Dems are holding fast.

Do we really need to be taking ideas from other threads to discuss here? Kinda defeats the entire purpose of different threads.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
January 03 2019 17:06 GMT
#20314
On January 04 2019 01:40 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2019 01:08 iamthedave wrote:
Over on the other thread, Greenhorizons feels the Democrats are conceding tons of ground to Trump; be this so? All I'm seeing from (un)merry old England is stuff saying the Dems are holding fast.

Do we really need to be taking ideas from other threads to discuss here? Kinda defeats the entire purpose of different threads.


It's entirely on topic, so i don't really see your problem here. Just because he's read it in another thread, rather than being told by an angry trumpet, it's not worth discussing in the thread that's literally called "US politics"?
On track to MA1950A.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 03 2019 17:20 GMT
#20315
I’ve done some digging into the PayGo rule and its really hard to find out who supported it or put it in the rules package. Or how rules packages are created, for that matter. But given that they are voting on this rule package the day they got back, my bet is a bunch of conservative democrats wanted to undercut the progressives and pushed to have it added to the rules. To zero people’s surprise, this had lead to a fight on the first day of the House.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-03 18:10:57
January 03 2019 17:59 GMT
#20316
So we have a 1 trillion dollar deficit and it will certainly go higher as the economy softens over the year. I do think the FEDGOV should continue running deficits, but this high? PAYGO would require:


Congress must pay for such legislation by reducing other entitlement spending or increasing other revenues

Congress can, however, waive PAYGO for a particular bill with the support of 60 senators and the majority of the House of Representatives. Also, PAYGO does not apply to discretionary programs (the programs Congress funds each year through the appropriations process), which are limited instead by the annual spending targets set in congressional budget plans.


Taxes need to go back up. The Ryan/Trump tax cuts were dumb. This does mean that progs can't pass some unfunded legislation, which I guess kinda sucks? But is also means that suburban Dems now have something to run on and keep fake deficit hawks at bay. This could also lead to offsetting the Ryan/Trump tax cuts. This seems like a progs gonna prog issue where they cause a stink about something procedural without ever getting into any substance.

https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/national-debt-guide/glossary/pay-as-you-go-rule-definition/

EDIT: I get the argument AOC is making here. PAYGO is less prog than !PAYGO, thus it is bad because anything less prog is bad. But beyond the deontological argument, is there a consequentialist argument here? What substantive evil is PAYGO going to cause? The Dem caucus can't send another dead bill for McConnell to ignore that also doesn't have associated offsets or revenue increases?
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12169 Posts
January 03 2019 18:05 GMT
#20317
When your side tries to block us with procedure, I'm pretty sure we're going to respond by being procedural. Seems coherent to me.
No will to live, no wish to die
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
January 03 2019 18:08 GMT
#20318
PayGo rules have been around in some form or another since 1990s and never stopped the Republicans or Democrats from blowing up the budget. I wouldn't be worried about it.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12169 Posts
January 03 2019 18:15 GMT
#20319
On January 04 2019 03:08 Plansix wrote:
PayGo rules have been around in some form or another since 1990s and never stopped the Republicans or Democrats from blowing up the budget. I wouldn't be worried about it.


It's never stopped them from blowing up the budget in ways that they want. The whole point is that we suspect, with good reason, that they don't want to do our stuff.
No will to live, no wish to die
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-01-03 18:27:14
January 03 2019 18:23 GMT
#20320
On January 04 2019 03:15 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2019 03:08 Plansix wrote:
PayGo rules have been around in some form or another since 1990s and never stopped the Republicans or Democrats from blowing up the budget. I wouldn't be worried about it.


It's never stopped them from blowing up the budget in ways that they want. The whole point is that we suspect, with good reason, that they don't want to do our stuff.

Bills that don't have enough votes to pass don't come to the floor of the House. It takes the exact same number of votes to override the rule as it does to pass legislation. It doesn't' mean they won't be debated or discussed on the floor. It just mean they won't be opened for pre-vote debate and a final vote without first receiving an override.

If the centrist and leadership don't want a progressive bill to come to the floor, they don't need this rule to kill it. And if the progressives have a popular program or bill they want to bring to the floor, this rule won't stop them. It isn't magic.

Edit: I get that progressives are suspicious of the leadership and the centrist, but this is the game. If the minority of conservatives in the Freedom Caucus proved anything, it is that a minority within the majority still has power. Rather than demanding the PayGo rule not exist, carve out some exceptions for things progressives want to push this congress. And remember that new rules can be put in place during the next congress.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
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