Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
As a result of these changes, the average maturity of Greece’s debt is now 16.5 years, double that of Germany and Italy, according to data compiled by Joakim Tiberg, a strategist at UBS. Portugal and Ireland, which also benefit from favourable terms for their own bailout loans, have average maturities of 11 and 12.5 years, respectively. Furthermore, the amount Greece pays each year to service its debts has steadily come down. Zsolt Darvas, a research fellow at Bruegel, a think-tank, has calculated that Greece’s nominal interest spending in 2014 was 4.3 per cent of gross domestic product, less than Italy or Portugal. In fact, this is probably an overestimate of the real interest burden. Greece did not have to pay any interest on its EFSF loans and received back the yield it pays to the European Central Bank and other national central banks, which hold just under one-tenth of its debt. Taking this into account, Mr Darvas calculates that total interest expenditure in 2014 was 2.6 per cent, only marginally above France’s 2.2 per cent.
source He doesn't just make it seem like 2.6% is nothing it is really little for a country especially with a junk rating.
You talk about two different things. The debt service is low but europe ask for a primary surplus to pay back. The greek did everything that was wanted and only achieved a 1,5 % primary surplus while the europe asked for a 4,5% primary. Just think about it, if the primary is 1,5 and you need 2,6 for the service of the debt you are still in deficit... Yes 2,6% for the risk is not much, but it is irrelevant : it is in relation to greeks payment capacities that you need to compare.
On February 26 2015 01:50 oneofthem wrote: ^that is not really true. a conciliatory greek government would not be able to get germans to relax anything and this stuff about blaming greeks for taking the hard line is just rationalization and blame shifting. they need to recognize the reality that they need to write off some fo the debt.
The problem are not the german people. If you read the media and comments and talk to people you hear a lot of "screw it. Let them cut their depts and give them their weird war reparations so they are on their way to wherever, we will be fine without them and this shit is over". None of the current polititians will loose their job no matter what they are doing to greece because germans are so sick of this topic and even more sick of that our democratically elected leaders, no matter what you are thinking about them, are displayed as the worst Germans in history.
The real problem are countries like Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia which are poorer the greece but had to also sacrifice a lot in the past years of financial crisis. How, as a politician, do you explain that to your people? "Well sorry guys we had to cut a lot of social spending the past years and we werent smart enough to stop giving a fuck like greece".
Greece is losing its productive next generation with its poor economy/social spending/corruption.
Statistics tell the story. An estimated 160,000 to 180,000 university graduates have left Greece since the crisis hit—this from a country with a total population of only 11 million—according to Lois Labrianidis, an economic geographer who researches migration at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki. In his book "Investing in Leaving: The Greek Case of International Migration of Professionals in the Globalization Era," he points out that half of these migrants have Ph.Ds.
Endeavor Greece, an international group that supports entrepreneurship, has even higher estimates. In its "Creating Jobs for Youth in Greece" report, it puts the tally at 200,000 people since the crisis hit five years ago. According to the Endeavor Greece study, to date about 71 percent of the Greek migrants have gone to countries in the EU. The other 29 percent have gone to Australia, Canada, the U.S., the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Specific countries also appear to be absorbing specific types of professionals. For example, finance graduates have gone primarily to the U.K., medical graduates to Germany, computer science graduates to the United States, and engineers to the Middle East.
Emigration figures were highest in 2013, tripling in comparison to the pre-crisis period, the study revealed. But the most disturbing statistic from the study showed that the trend is not dissipating: a stunning 46 percent of Greeks living in the country are considering relocating.
I've never understood the concept of austerity as a remedy for an ailing economy; consumers are the lifeblood of any economy and to systematically limit their spending power is to systematically inhibit growth.
The Fed's decision to delay quantitative easement and to artificially prolong all-time low interest rates is the reason the United States economy continues to grow and continues to rebound from nearly a decade of cavalier spending and inadequate oversight culminating in a global financial crisis.
Austerity is an obvious solution to debt and perhaps the only true path toward solvency, but to embark on such a path prior to achieving economic stability is a recipe for economic disenfranchisement, for degradation of livelihood and for the resentment which festers and evolves into radicalism.
On February 25 2015 21:41 WhiteDog wrote: The currency is not the origin of the problem but the reason why they can't get out of it. The greeks are not responsible for the entirety of the greek tho. In your mind, I'm sure greeks are like kiddos drinking soda under the sun spending german's money and going around buttnaked in their BMWs... Do you know that the debt quadrupled under the dictature of the colonels (1967 - 1974), that another part has been contracted in order to help european financial institutions (mainly german and french institutions), that another part is the result of the corruption (like when firms such as Siemens - in 2008 - tried to sell their defectuous products) ?
I really think it is insulting to make it seem like the greeks profited from all this, especially considering 40 % of them had no heating this winter, that 30 % of them are under the poverty line, that 25 % of them are unemployed.
No, in my mind the Greeks are people who have continually and democratically elected clientelistic governments since 1974, and in my mind people in a democracy bear responsibility for the representatives they send to parliament.
You cannot want to have the power to vote your own leaders into office, enjoy all the benefits during the good times but deny any and all responsibility for their actions once things go south.
I hope that Syriza is serious about their efforts to reform the country. They can be a force for the better for all of Europe if their project is succesful, and if they are given a chance to proceed with their plans. I think Schäuble should have given them a little bit more leeway, although his position is understandable. It will be a huge uphill struggle nonetheless.
I think f Tsipras and Varoufakis wouldn't have acted like an elephant in a porcelain closet and antagonized the whole of Europe to please their voters before they even started negotiating they would've gotten better terms. Dijsselbloem actually said as much on Dutch TV.
Instead now we're stuck with a sub optimal solution for Europe and Greece.
The previous government that was totally agreeable, got wined and dined regularly by EU elites and so on got the Chardouvelis email as a result of its agreeability, which included such fun things as a primary surplus target of 3% for this year, VAT hikes, further pension cuts and so on all in order to achieve it.
I know I'm Greek and therefore negatively predisposed towards Dijsselbloem but this guy is a really sneaky bastard of a politician. He made it into FinMin of a successful economy and president of Eurogroup with an undergrad degree in agricultural economics and a failed masters for crying out loud. Been a politician his whole life, no real credentials to his name at all.
Besides, he's saying that ego halted a better deal for Greece. Really? A better deal for Greece is not in the interests of Europe as a whole now, which would obviously mean that egos have to be put aside no matter what? We don't want to fix the problems asap?
Once again I will post about projections and reality, haven't seen a comment about this yet (remember, EU hardliners pushed for this stuff to continue, had it put on hold for a little while and in the summer will no doubt push for it again). This is what happens when you miscalculate the multiplier: + Show Spoiler +
Statistics tell the story. An estimated 160,000 to 180,000 university graduates have left Greece since the crisis hit—this from a country with a total population of only 11 million—according to Lois Labrianidis, an economic geographer who researches migration at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki. In his book "Investing in Leaving: The Greek Case of International Migration of Professionals in the Globalization Era," he points out that half of these migrants have Ph.Ds.
Endeavor Greece, an international group that supports entrepreneurship, has even higher estimates. In its "Creating Jobs for Youth in Greece" report, it puts the tally at 200,000 people since the crisis hit five years ago. According to the Endeavor Greece study, to date about 71 percent of the Greek migrants have gone to countries in the EU. The other 29 percent have gone to Australia, Canada, the U.S., the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Specific countries also appear to be absorbing specific types of professionals. For example, finance graduates have gone primarily to the U.K., medical graduates to Germany, computer science graduates to the United States, and engineers to the Middle East.
Emigration figures were highest in 2013, tripling in comparison to the pre-crisis period, the study revealed. But the most disturbing statistic from the study showed that the trend is not dissipating: a stunning 46 percent of Greeks living in the country are considering relocating.
The same happened to Spain and Portugal, if I remembered correctly. Portugal is the third biggest supplier of foreign labour in the Belgian construction industry, after Poland and The Netherlands (which serves as a supplier of Polish workers via networks of temping agencies).
Apart from that, I recall reading that many of them also migrated to South America.
I don't know the demographic situation of the southern European countries, but if such a thing were to happen to Belgium or Germany, it'd be disastrous and the consequences would be felt in less than a decade, mainly with regard to pensions and social security.
On February 26 2015 06:08 always_winter wrote: I've never understood the concept of austerity as a remedy for an ailing economy; consumers are the lifeblood of any economy and to systematically limit their spending power is to systematically inhibit growth.
The Fed's decision to delay quantitative easement and to artificially prolong all-time low interest rates is the reason the United States economy continues to grow and continues to rebound from nearly a decade of cavalier spending and inadequate oversight culminating in a global financial crisis.
Most of it is purely nominal. Look at the real living situation of people in the Western World and then look at the "economic growth" of the last two or three decades. What does some arbitrary number of economic growth mean if people are drowning in student debt and their rent doubles every ten years?
We could literally burn down a house and build it up again and economically you could consider it Keynesian stimulus. It's true that austerity reduces economical activity and thus will always look bad on paper but if it manages to initiate actual political and economical change it may as well be worth it.
Yes, it happens the same on Spain aswell. It's a deplorable situation. South America is mostly engineers/architechs as far i recall. But many graduates also go to other countries and work in whatever they can get (ie waitress, etc), specially for those who the language barrier is harder than others, or they get paid less than the natives, but most go to the UK.
State policies on Spain had been about making harder the access to universitary studies by making it more expensive. D'ouh.
On February 25 2015 03:00 Narw wrote: Cameron today announced that British military personnel (advisers) will be deployed to Ukraine in about month time and also spoke about non-lethal equipment to be delivered there (i guess that means stuff like body armor/communication devices?) and also spoke about “materially different” sanctions to be deployed if situation dosn't improve. Not sure about what he means about different sanctions, but well, im happy to at least see some actions taking place instead of just stating that politics are "deeply concerned". It's also important to note that he considers possibilty of similar hybrid war scenario development in Moldavia and Baltic States.
I'm not sure if it's already been noted here in the thread, but the British Government also sent over some very old, demiltarised Saxon vehicles that Dannatt said were "worse than useless".
Actually, the mobility of production factor, while a tragedy for the weekest countries, can also be a way to reequilibrate the eurozone (it is a way to do it from a theorical standpoint) but it will not because of languages differences. Portuguese prefer going in old colony in africa rather than Germany, same for Spain.
Nyxisto you can look at it in all the ways you want to, the US will always do better than europ, at least since 2007.
On February 26 2015 06:55 Godwrath wrote: State policies on Spain had been about making harder the access to universitary studies by making it more expensive. D'ouh.
Can you be more specific? I know that limiting access to education is rarely a good idea but I would support it in certain situations. For example a lot of people chooses to study some bullshit things just because it's (almost) free and they have no idea what to do with their lives. I'm fine with this as long as they pay for it from their own pocket but it's getting silly when the state has to finance their whims.
For example, order 3+2 (students are currently on a strike and the goverment is trying to pass it withouth the need for approval from parlamient) implies 3 years for grade (1 year reduction) and 2 years for masters (1 more year). Public masters for one year can cost up to 23k Euros, something that a student or a regular family can't afford already, and if that has to be two years instead of one, well you get the drill.
By the way, the more costly are the masters on economics and finances.
There is also the LOMCE, which is intended to cut down the number of scholarships and to increase tuition fees.
Not to speak about Religion making a comeback as an obligatory subject (and yes, it's mostly about Christianism for the most part), having the same weight as subjects like Math.
There is also the earlier professional formation more based towards practical applications, which in my opinion can be positive (we have an obligatory school system until the 16 year old, that's too late imo, since there are kids that just don't want to be there anymore and are just stuck in there), but the state has education on a really precarious state where the resources needed for this formation (laboratories, equipment, products, personal) is just not avaible because the state is not willing to pay for it. Therefore, the quality of the formation is highly dubious and it just segregates and leads to precarious jobs with poor qualifications instead.
Another positive aspect is how Math is also required for High School science related studies (which was just stupid for starters, but kind of unrelated to what we are speaking, since the people who didn't pursue Math in High School, don't tend to get far in their universtary science related studies).
I've just come across this video showing the voting process in the justice committee of the greek parliament. If this is democracy, I don't want it and I don't want to pay for it.
The video was recorded in 2013, where the former government was in power and the people of Europe were told everything was according to plan and fine. The lady who is so courageously speaking up is from Syriza and is now as far as I know the president of the new parliament.
Stuff like this can and must be corrected and you don't need money for that. As far as I understand the German position is and always was that Greece has to correct problems in its administration to establish a climate where people want to invest money. It's no use giving money to a country where only the rich take it, where the rich show no solidarity with the poor and the normal European working class should show solidarity while their own elites refuse any.
The greek press which is owned by very influential and rich people tries to find scapegoats for the situation in Greece and accuses everybody but themselves for the shit that is going on.
On February 27 2015 15:27 Banaora wrote: I've just come across this video showing the voting process in the justice committee of the greek parliament. If this is democracy, I don't want it and I don't want to pay for it.
The video was recorded in 2013, where the former government was in power and the people of Europe were told everything was according to plan and fine. The lady who is so courageously speaking up is from Syriza and is now as far as I know the president of the new parliament.
Stuff like this can and must be corrected and you don't need money for that. As far as I understand the German position is and always was that Greece has to correct problems in its administration to establish a climate where people want to invest money. It's no use giving money to a country where only the rich take it, where the rich show no solidarity with the poor and the normal European working class should show solidarity while their own elites refuse any.
The greek press which is owned by very influential and rich people tries to find scapegoats for the situation in Greece and accuses everybody but themselves for the shit that is going on.
At that time they were "voting" drafts of "reforms" imposed by the EU/IMF/ECB in total accordance and support by the German political system (how couldn't?). In fact the great majority of deforms that agreed through the bailout programs the last few years do not get through the greek parliament for votting at all.
At this point it's my duty to remind you also that New Democracy (greek ex government) is a EPP member together with CDU. Likewise PASOK (ex coalition partner) is a member of PES, comrades(lol) with SDP.
On February 26 2015 06:58 WhiteDog wrote: Portuguese prefer going in old colony in africa rather than Germany, same for Spain.
Nyxisto you can look at it in all the ways you want to, the US will always do better than europ, at least since 2007.
Really? Is there a Portugese who would confirm that youd rather move to Angola or Mozambique than Germany? I cant really imagine any circumstance where if given a choice between living in a country like Germany or a country where I have some cultural-language links but that is in a developing one Id pick the developing one...
On February 26 2015 06:08 always_winter wrote: I've never understood the concept of austerity as a remedy for an ailing economy; consumers are the lifeblood of any economy and to systematically limit their spending power is to systematically inhibit growth.
The Fed's decision to delay quantitative easement and to artificially prolong all-time low interest rates is the reason the United States economy continues to grow and continues to rebound from nearly a decade of cavalier spending and inadequate oversight culminating in a global financial crisis.
Austerity is an obvious solution to debt and perhaps the only true path toward solvency, but to embark on such a path prior to achieving economic stability is a recipe for economic disenfranchisement, for degradation of livelihood and for the resentment which festers and evolves into radicalism.
Actually production is the lifeblood of an economy. After all, if there is no production there is no consumption. I don't want to de-rail the thread too much though, except that your analysis is laughably wrong. Keynes ghost still haunts us. /shiver
Also, did you read your second paragraph and not note the disconnect? Cavalier spending? That's what negative interest rates and QE (printing / creating mass amounts of fiduciary media/currency) encourage, and was the reason for the situation we got ourselves into. I don't think you bothered to check Greenspans interest rates from 98' to 07' did you? Funny your analysis.
Europe is living in a fantasy where the idea that you can have massive Social Welfare systems along with open-door policies, coupled with the idea that you can pay for this through financial manipulation (fiat credit) & have 'economic stability' is about as absurd as a politician promising 45$ minimum wage as the solution to poverty. It's like no one learned anything from Cantillon and the Mississippi Company. Don't worry, reality always wins in the end no matter how delusional you may believe something (Keynesianism).
On February 26 2015 06:58 WhiteDog wrote: Portuguese prefer going in old colony in africa rather than Germany, same for Spain.
Nyxisto you can look at it in all the ways you want to, the US will always do better than europ, at least since 2007.
Really? Is there a Portugese who would confirm that youd rather move to Angola or Mozambique than Germany? I cant really imagine any circumstance where if given a choice between living in a country like Germany or a country where I have some cultural-language links but that is in a developing one Id pick the developing one...
It saves them the trouble of having to learn a new language and to compete with people who are equally, if not better educated than they are.
On February 26 2015 06:58 WhiteDog wrote: Portuguese prefer going in old colony in africa rather than Germany, same for Spain.
Nyxisto you can look at it in all the ways you want to, the US will always do better than europ, at least since 2007.
Really? Is there a Portugese who would confirm that youd rather move to Angola or Mozambique than Germany? I cant really imagine any circumstance where if given a choice between living in a country like Germany or a country where I have some cultural-language links but that is in a developing one Id pick the developing one...
Don't know about Portugal but for Spain this is incorrect. Emigration to Germany saw the biggest relative jump in the top destination countries for Spain, with the exception of Ecuador; however:
it is worth noting that in the case of Ecuador most emigrants are population that was not born in Spain or children under 15 years old, which seems to indicate a return migration of original Ecuadorians who have acquired the Spanish nationality along with the children born in Spain.
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/02/20150216_var1.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/8pBBfi8.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/2hTsyxf.png)
