EPTMy guess is it will start in October this year.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 641
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pmh
1355 Posts
My guess is it will start in October this year. | ||
TheNewEra
Germany3128 Posts
On January 19 2017 02:34 pmh wrote: Eu gonna fall apart this year or next year? place your bets. My guess is it will start in October this year. What exactly do you classify as "fall apart" just out of interest? | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
But I think the real trouble will start whenever Greece teeters towards insolvency again. Agreeing on debt delays has probably run its course, and while the scheduled date is 2018 it might come this year. What Trump said about "EU or nations, I don't care" should spell trouble. EU might survive but I think its fracture is more likely than not at this point. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18078 Posts
On January 19 2017 03:18 LegalLord wrote: I think hard Brexit is going to be the beginning of the end, if it happens. People can dismiss the UK as a barely-EU nation but they underestimate the destabilizing effect of that result. But I think the real trouble will start whenever Greece teeters towards insolvency again. Agreeing on debt delays has probably run its course, and while the scheduled date is 2018 it might come this year. What Trump said about "EU or nations, I don't care" should spell trouble. EU might survive but I think its fracture is more likely than not at this point. Why should the EU care what Trump said about the EU? Greece could cause problems. The French, Dutch and Italian elections could cause problems. Trump cannot cause problems with the internal strife between EU members. He's an outsider clown and everybody knows his idea about the EU since he cheered and congratulated the British with their Brexit vote. His willingness to work with individual nations is neither here nor there. I doubt he'll be offering incentives to break up the EU, and most countries' populations (and in particular, the populists) are actually not in favour of TTIP-esque trade deals, so it's hard to even see how Trump would offer incentives anyway. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On January 19 2017 03:23 Acrofales wrote: Why should the EU care what Trump said about the EU? Greece could cause problems. The French, Dutch and Italian elections could cause problems. Trump cannot cause problems with the internal strife between EU members. He's an outsider clown and everybody knows his idea about the EU since he cheered and congratulated the British with their Brexit vote. His willingness to work with individual nations is neither here nor there. I doubt he'll be offering incentives to break up the EU, and most countries' populations (and in particular, the populists) are actually not in favour of TTIP-esque trade deals, so it's hard to even see how Trump would offer incentives anyway. He signals the policy of the most important outside economy for Europe. There is nothing about that that you can just pooh-pooh and hope will pass. He's basically saying that if you're looking to keep the EU together, you're entirely on your own for the next four years. | ||
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
Britain has always be a trouble maker and I am pretty happy they decided to leave. Its important to let people go. Sometimes you have to test out alternatives and look at different ideas if you want to improve and grow. If we see britain suffer enormous losses outside the EU we will learn a huge lesson. And if we see britain succeed we will learn a lesson too. New experiences are always important if you want progress. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
Still, your confidence in France is interesting. Their population/political elite hold even more disparate views than their UK equivalents, and they have a less favourable opinion of the EU in polls than the UK does. No doubt they feel more at home in the EU than the UK did, but it's hardly written in stone that they will stick with it. | ||
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Laurens
Belgium4548 Posts
France is more worrying. I have been repeatedly assured that there is 0% chance of Le Pen winning round 2, but if her opponent is Fillon I am wary. Don't know enough about Italy to comment, after the referendum there was a lot of concern for their banks but so far nothing catastrophical seems to have happened. | ||
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Furikawari
France2522 Posts
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
France is probably the weak link of France-Germany-Italy. At this point it looks likely that it will be Fillon vs Le Pen, with Macron being the other possible option (who is most pro-EU here anyways?). Italy may have an early election, which is probably going to be a victory for the anti Euro groups. Really, I see Greece as the most likely flashpoint for a larger breakup. Maybe Italy if its economy goes full-out crisis mode, but I ultimately think the breakup will be based on economic insecurity, if it ultimately happens. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I don't think we'll have countries isolated but if France gets Le Pen and they yoloswag it I don't see the EU surviving without a reboot of some sort. Some other countries leaving sure, but France out of the EU would be gg right there. So really depends on France imo and I don't happen to be as optimistic as most people on that one | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
Needless to say that they don't want to be ruled by Germany (bad idea), but a change in how politics are conducted would do the country hella good. | ||
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Makro
France16890 Posts
that's why many europeans leaders are actively trying to resolve the brexit issue harshly, it's good publicity that's the main reason france leaving the EU won't happen | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Laurens
Belgium4548 Posts
On January 19 2017 04:15 LegalLord wrote: Because they are afraid of being smacked in the face by the "rest of the EU" that is going to punish them for it? They're also part of Eurozone and Schengen which complicates things a bit more. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
For one, I wonder how much "pay 2 percent or we don't necessarily got your back" is going to look, economically. And how it's going to look to nations that don't want German occupation. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/rHoFnt4.jpg) | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6238 Posts
Meanwhile Trump giving Europe the cold shoulder only strengthens the case for Federalists since there's no viable alternative left except the EU if the US isn't willing. Yes the EU has been through a lot of crises with the credit crisis, the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, Brexit and Russian aggression but we've actually been climbing out of that hole for a while now. Growth and inflation is picking up and the refugee flow has greatly receded. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
On January 19 2017 04:14 Makro wrote: with the brexit, medias are doing a good thing at hammering the head of the people that leaving the EU would be the biggest catastrophy ever and will turn the country into dust that's why many europeans leaders are actively trying to resolve the brexit issue harshly, it's good publicity that's the main reason france leaving the EU won't happen And what if the UK comes out the other side stronger than ever? On January 19 2017 04:33 RvB wrote: I've been hearing that the EU will collapse since the eurocrisis. THat's 7 years ago. The EU isn't going anywhere. THe PVV is no danger, M5S is supposedly eurosceptic but wanted to join the liberal fraction in the European parliament and Greece doesn't even want to leave after all the shit they've been through. France is a little bit of a toss up but Le Pen isn't going to win. Meanwhile Trump giving Europe the cold shoulder only strengthens the case for Federalists since there's no viable alternative left except the EU if the US isn't willing. Yes the EU has been through a lot of crises with the credit crisis, the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, Brexit and Russian aggression but we've actually been climbing out of that hole for a while now. Growth and inflation is picking up and the refugee flow has greatly receded. Right. Because nothing has changed since 7 years ago, has it? I mean, it's not like one of the biggest members has left. Not like Italian banks are on the brink of collapse and Greece is no better than before. Not like millions of migrants have come to the continent against the will of most people. Also, did you notice that Farage did not (and never would be able to) win a general election in the UK? Even without a populist leader being elected, there is only so long that you can deny your peoples the votes that they want. And then, who knows? | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On January 19 2017 04:33 RvB wrote: I've been hearing that the EU will collapse since the eurocrisis. THat's 7 years ago. The EU isn't going anywhere. THe PVV is no danger, M5S is supposedly eurosceptic but wanted to join the liberal fraction in the European parliament and Greece doesn't even want to leave after all the shit they've been through. France is a little bit of a toss up but Le Pen isn't going to win. Meanwhile Trump giving Europe the cold shoulder only strengthens the case for Federalists since there's no viable alternative left except the EU if the US isn't willing. Yes the EU has been through a lot of crises with the credit crisis, the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, Brexit and Russian aggression but we've actually been climbing out of that hole for a while now. Growth and inflation is picking up and the refugee flow has greatly receded. Kwark was right, in a way, when he said, "if you predict economic crisis you will eventually be right." So that much is true. The biggest thing now, though, is that the EU's crisis is buried more so than resolved (Greece will default again, for sure) and we have some very concrete reasons to think this is only going to get worse. Britain for example already voted to leave; they might not have too many good options outside the EU but they did make the choice in the referendum and it very well may happen. The US basically says that the EU is on its own, which should be further reason to be concerned. The Eurosceptics just keep getting stronger and stronger as we go forward. There is no real sign of this EU crisis getting less severe; it keeps going from crisis-point to crisis-point (Greece, refugees, Brexit, Trump) and I just don't see any resolution on the horizon. While five years ago I would have probably said an EU breakup is unlikely and they will work it all out eventually, at this point I would have to classify it as "more likely than not." | ||
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