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@Zatig: Calling the CDU losing the Election on "less for everyone" seems strange.
Germany was ruled by SPD/Greens and after the "lost" election it was ruled by CDU/SPD... How is that "losing"? Yeah, the CDU after that started to Change their advertisements and went a bit away from neoliberalism or least stopped promoting it openly. Then CDU/FDP came, which had the liberals actually as minor Partner (also known as scapegoat ).
Calling it a "lost" election when they won that and every election after seems a bit "off".
On February 23 2015 20:38 WhiteDog wrote: And you criticize "France" by insulting the weakest part of our society ? You talk about the public debt, but what about the fact that we have no inflation since 30 years (sure help for the debt right ?), what about the fact that the state bought out the banks for an absurd amount after the crisis, what about the fact that the current greek debt was entirely detained by banks and private institutions until our glorious politicians decided to make it entirely public because well you know we can't let our banks have risky assets ? You make it seem like the guy working for minimum wage, or worst the unemployed guy who have social security and free card for public transportation is responsible for the debt. Isn't it absurd ? And can you really, today, criticize france and not our system of "grandes écoles" ou "classes préparatoires" that cost a shit ton of public money to give the best education possible to the already most favored and rich part of our society ? Can you really criticize france without criticizing our tax system, heavy on indirect tax such as the TVA ? I'm all for criticizing our government, I actually dislike them so much I'd prefer voting for Sarkozy to prevent Hollande or Valls to get into power again, but at least be fair and don't put the blame on the poor guy that seek a job for a year only to find some short term proposition in a restaurant or a supermarket.
We're a lot less industrialized because the euro does that : it force countries into specializing theirselves to gain from competitivity advantage. Germany specialized itself in production of industrialized goods (because it was already the most productive country in europe in this regard), we specialized in services. Is it bad ? Yes. But it was foretold by economists such as Alain Cotta (who was Mitterand economist btw, but against the euro, debate in french that deal with this matter below). + Show Spoiler +
By the way, I never said we were doing well, I'm saying we're not ruined. We're actually filthy rich compared to most countries.
I'm just going to assume that a misunderstanding took place or something because we're both criticizing the same category of people. I never meant to say that the guy who is unemployed or working close to minimum wage is the problem. The problem is at the top of the money chain, not the bottom; I'm sorry if I gave the wrong impression.
My beef is with our political "elites" and indeed, the idiots who come out of the "grandes écoles" who can't wipe their ass without a report detailing what kind of torque their shit applies to the paper. In the mean time our universities are relegated to a "lesser" status. Try finding an internship with big industrial groups if you're doing studies in a university; they ask for "grandes écoles". It's very difficult to access such education, I agree with you on that.
I do criticize France's taxation and its heavy TVA. I criticize that the government attempts to control every aspect of the French life, both in the industry and in the home. People shouldn't have to rely on subsidies to sustain themselves, yet they do.
France is carrying a heavy weight which is, namely, our political and social "elite". You can be sure that they aren't the ones who are doing their best to take the country forward, they're doing the best to dodge taxes while finding ways to take money from the French populace. That "weight" (or parasite) is the reason why the people at the bottom of the food chain are poorly off in the first place. The category of person who is suffering the most these days is the guy who doesn't have a lot of income and who is trying to find work. Yet that work is difficult to obtain because of the incredibly heavy taxes which weigh on anyone who works (from bottom to top) and the companies which employ them.
You could argue that the Euro caused this problem; you might be right, I don't know enough about the way the economy works to be able to say yes or no to that. I'm lucid enough to see that the current government (and the one that was there before it) is doing nothing to help French people.
On February 23 2015 20:54 Velr wrote: @Zatig: Calling the CDU losing the Election on "less for everyone" seems strange.
Germany was ruled by SPD/Greens and after the "lost" election it was ruled by CDU/SPD... How is that "losing"? Yeah, the CDU after that started to Change their advertisements and went a bit away from neoliberalism or least stopped promoting it openly. Then CDU/FDP came, which had the liberals actually as minor Partner (also known as scapegoat ).
Calling it a "lost" election when they won that and every election after seems a bit "off".
When campaigning started in 2005, CDU/FDP polled in at a VERY comfortable lead. The lead was so great that they apparently thought the election already won. And to be fair, talk in the media was already generally what the new conservative government will do after their expected landslide victory. And full of hubris about their supposedly unassailable lead, they went into campaigning with a radical neo-liberal program.
A lot of credit has to go to Schroeder's brilliant counter campaign also, but in the end this program was what lost the CDU/FDP their promised victory. Yes, Merkel still got the chancellery, but once in the government she ended up doing quite literally the opposite her CDU and FDP had promised just a week before.
I mean, look at Merkel, Westerwelle, Stoiber on election night 2005. They are DEVASTATED:
Being a guy from a PIGS country (thank you whoever you are to have found this name, great example of collaboration and federal friendship) i just wonder about a thing. The plan to catch up was "we'll go in Europe and we'll shake the things up, we'll force Germany to marry us (this was the exact term) and we'll do the United States of Europe". After being calmed down by this promise for years, we finally realized that the girl we want to marry doesn't even want our phone number (if we have some debt to pay we can still email her) and that's ok i mean, it's her right to choose.
What i wonder, is why are growing "no-euro" parties when the problem is not the value itself, but a not-elected leader role of one country and the disparity of power in the coalization due to this. I personally don't want to face a globalized world alone as a country, i would really like to have as partners the countries with the same economic basics. So why should I call me out? PIGS should have developed "Germany out of Europe" parties, and not what they have done. It's pretty obvious what is the Europe's problem to everyone except France, they're always so self-proud, it's hard to believe they're not a leading role anymore even if they do trips to Minks together.
I'm sorry about the ironic tone about this post, but as i find the whole thing very ironic i think i should write about it ironically.
It's not just Germany, they're just leading a group of countries including The Netherlands, Austria, Finland etc. It's just that Germany is the biggest and the leader of this faction so for simplicity that's what the media refers to.
Some of you keep saying that euro is good for Germany&friends and bad for Southern Europe because northern economies are more competitive. How does it influence Eastern Europe? Obviously we can't compete with the West but somehow vast majority of our political scene supports switching to euro in the near future. I'm far from trusting their every word but I'm sure their opponents would say something about euro being disadvantageous for weaker economies.
On February 23 2015 20:51 Alathya wrote: just wondering:
iirc, the baltic states and other easern countries e.g. Slovenia had to undergo drastic reforms and changes as well due to the economic crysis. Still, there had been way less noise about it compared to Greece.
Did those changes have been just way less drastic compared to Greece or did "we" just cared less?
Afaik they had to make some (non drastic) reforms because they wanted to join the eurozone and not because their economies were in poor condition. I don't know how it looked like in the rest of Eastern Europe but my country dealt with the crisis pretty well. We didn't even stop growing while the rest of Europe suffered recession.
On February 23 2015 23:43 Sent. wrote: Some of you keep saying that euro is good for Germany&friends and bad for Southern Europe because northern economies are more competitive. How does it influence Eastern Europe? Obviously we can't compete with the West but somehow vast majority of our political scene supports switching to euro in the near future. I'm far from trusting their every word but I'm sure their opponents would say something about euro being disadvantageous for weaker economies.
On February 23 2015 20:51 Alathya wrote: just wondering:
iirc, the baltic states and other easern countries e.g. Slovenia had to undergo drastic reforms and changes as well due to the economic crysis. Still, there had been way less noise about it compared to Greece.
Did those changes have been just way less drastic compared to Greece or did "we" just cared less?
Afaik they had to make some (non drastic) reforms because they wanted to join the eurozone and not because their economies were in poor condition. I don't know how it looked like in the rest of Eastern Europe but my country dealt with the crisis pretty well. We didn't even stop growing while the rest of Europe suffered recession.
Eastern Europe is fine, for now. The common currency only becomes a "problem" if you get into deep debt. Its an advantage as long as you aren't in a recession where deleveraging needs to be the country's top priority.
Also, about German wages not growing. Guess what other country has not had much wage growth? America. And, when you look at the world since 1990, the situation in Germany/USA makes more sense than the situation in France/Periphery. There has been a massive influx of labor that earns less than $5/hour into the world market in India, China, South America, and other places. Plus immigration from poor countries. Logic and economics would suggest low wage growth would be the norm for 1st world countries until the poorer countries catch up enough to close that gap.
I'd still like to point out again that wages as well as hourly labour cost in Germany actually seem to be pretty appropriate compared to other countries with similar economic output.
On February 24 2015 05:15 Nyxisto wrote: I'd still like to point out again that wages as well as hourly labour cost in Germany actually seem to be pretty appropriate compared to other countries with similar economic output.
So what? Your economy is just as imbalanced as any other problem country in the Eurozone. You can skin that cat however you want - wages, consumption, investment - whatever. How Germany gets its shit together is as uninteresting as how Greece gets its shit together.
No it's important because the whole mess is actually not a matter of wage competitiveness or whatever. The Baltics and Eastern Europe surely can't compete with Northern Europe and they are not in the same situation as Greece or Italy. If the common currency or Germany's competitiveness where the decisive problem they'd be having the same troubles, too.
The elite is still building their castle in the sky. The united states of Europe. It will be just like the united states,the 5% winners take all and the middle class will be wiped out. The bottom will be given just enough to stay alive and do their job,quality of life will detoriate as corporations get more and more power to bend rules that should guarantee quality of life for everyone. For 400 years Europe has been in an unique position in the world,it was (and still is) the by far richest continent in the world. Europe is the only place with a big welfare system,the only place in the world where poor people have living standards almost equal to the middle class. All this is going to change and the people wont be ready for it. You can already see that now,while we are just at the start of this process,that the population of some states start to revolt and start voting on parties that do not belong to the establishment,and we are just at the start. Even the population of the northern countries wont be ready for what is going to unfold in the next 20 years. I feel sry for the generation growing up now,when they are in their prime there will be nothing left but a wasteland.They will have to struggle to come by just like 75%+ of America and the rest of the world has to struggle to just make a low standard of living. Europe wont be ready,we are to spoiled so to say and this will in the end lead to a revolution,civil war or worse, a through war. The powers that be wont stop,and at one point the population wont take it anymore. So far its only Greece but Italy spain and france will follow, If not now then within 10 years. So enjoy it while it lasts,let the band keep playing and dance, because we are near the end of an era.
On February 24 2015 06:20 Nyxisto wrote: No it's important because the whole mess is actually not a matter of wage competitiveness or whatever. The Baltics and Eastern Europe surely can't compete with Northern Europe and they are not in the same situation as Greece or Italy. If the common currency or Germany's competitiveness where the decisive problem they'd be having the same troubles, too.
Than how is austerity supposed to work? How do you think the Baltics recovered? It's like you're on another planet man...
The Baltics grew so fast because they restructured their economy to something that actually makes investment and existence of a modern economy possible. Simplification of the tax code, well working banking system, not drowning in debt, etc.. the same stuff that is being reiterated for years. If the failure you and WhiteDog keep promoting is systemic and inevitable then please explain to me why these countries are continuing to do well.
The recovery of the baltics shouldn't be surprising?
1: The baltics/eastern europe wasn't allways dirt poor... They became dirt poor due to russian rule/exploitation over decades. 2: Russia was gone and people could vote on their "own" goverment, which improved trust and decreased corruption and tax evasion (not erradicated, but decreased). 3: Juicy EU money for infrastructure and open borders for companies to invest and "exploit" the cheap labour.
This lead to rising wages and better living conditions... Its still a long road but one thing is certain... Austerity is the last thing you want when the problem of your country is "being poor".
Greece managed to accumulate record debt while still not building up any decent infrastructure or attracting companies with it. Banks are to blame for not caring about anything (and they have been proven right, else we now would have bankrupt banks, not bankrupt states) and Greece is to blame for thinking they can go on like this forever. This is bad, on both ends, but one thing is for sure... Austerity won't be the solution.
I think a lot of you people have different definitions of austerity. Sure, if you are imposing high tax rates to pay off debt and reduce the deficit and call it "austerity" that isn't going to be good for your economy. If austerity is limiting government spending so you don't get into the debt and deficit situations, then it is great for your economy because less dollars are being extracted from the productive sectors of the economy.
Austerity is not an economical solution but more of a political desperation move to get Greece to tackle the reforms that people hope will make Greece's economy functional. Another big thing about austerity is that pretty much all it does is demand a balanced budget. 80% of private wealth in Greece has been accumulated by about two thousand families. No one forced Greece to cut pensions or reduce wages, they could have as well reduced inequality and redistributed wealth and balanced the budget that way.
The failure of the EU was probably to not make such policies the basis of negotiation years ago. On the other hand they probably would have been accused of not respecting Greece's sovereignty.
On February 24 2015 06:36 Nyxisto wrote: The Baltics grew so fast because they restructured their economy to something that actually makes investment and existence of a modern economy possible. Simplification of the tax code, well working banking system, not drowning in debt, etc.. the same stuff that is being reiterated for years. If the failure you and WhiteDog keep promoting is systemic and inevitable then please explain to me why these countries are continuing to do well.
How can other countries avoid debt when Germans are throwing it at them? Germans have to pick one or the other. They can't simultaneously insist that others borrow from them, while insisting that borrowing is inevitably bad.
As for the Baltics, they went through a horrid period that took years to recover (have they even fully recovered yet?):
Part of that recovery was due to labor costs falling, which made them more competitive. They were also able to close their trade deficits, which not every country can do so long as others are running surpluses.
Germany needs to restructure your economy in a way that makes the existence of a modern economy possible. And no, 16th century mercantilism is not modern.
That "horrid period" also known as the financial crisis had the same effect on pretty much any country and the Baltics have actually rebounded pretty fast.
Also labour costs in the Baltics have not fallen during that period. + Show Spoiler +
How can other countries avoid debt when Germans are throwing it at them? Germans have to pick one or the other. They can't simultaneously insist that others borrow from them, while insisting that borrowing is inevitably bad.
Germany did not "throw" debt at Greece; during the Papandreou negotiations it was Germany which was most reticent about bailing out Greece, but finally succumbed to international pressure and political conformity. The Merkel government took a sizable political risk in giving German assent, in view of a sceptical public. In Germany, it was the Europhiles, not the "nationalists" who pushed hardest for the Greek bailout. The fact that these roles have been reversed in the assignment of motives merely 5 years on is a powerful testimonial to the force of resentful rationalisations.
I recall the domestic mood quite clearly, as back then I told my (largely pro-bailout) German acquaintances that contrary to their prognostications, this was not a loan, but a welfare scheme. They were fooling themselves in falling for the smoke and mirrors of "austerity" crafted to mute the sceptics.
On February 24 2015 07:38 Nyxisto wrote: That "horrid period" also known as the financial crisis had the same effect on pretty much any country and the Baltics have actually rebounded pretty fast.
Also labour costs in the Baltics have not fallen during that period. + Show Spoiler +
Both those statements are wrong. The effect on the Baltics was far worse than in most countries. A 15-25% contraction is HUGE. Just compare to the US (black line):
And your chart on labor costs shows a decrease followed by an increase. So yea, costs fell until recovery kicked in. Anyways, how do you think austerity is going to lead to a recovery beyond generic platitudes about tax complexity? Pre-crisis there was no lack of investment, quite the opposite actually. You think a simpler tax code combined with higher taxes and / or lower domestic demand is supposed to work make Greece a better place to invest?
FFS, just look at reality. The Eurozone has been doing what Germany wants and the recovery has been shit. Even Germany has been growing slower than the US, and the recovery here is considered shitty!
EPT
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