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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
I am especially salty about Sikorski not being KO candidate. Before Trzaskowski was chosen You could feel a general enthusiasm towards him. Even some stunch PiS suporrters were saying they dont mind voting for him. He has much more conservative image than Trzaskowski and was fighting russians in Afghanistan which would immediatelly steal a lot of votes from far-right. He is also well known on his own, and You could have made argument that he will be indepedent from Tusk. Thus shielding him from Tusk's (i will reapeat myself) GIGANTIC negative electorate.
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Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world.
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There's value, I guess, in driving home the fact that even with Trump clearly fucking everything up, that's not going to long term stop the far right representatives from winning elections. This guy is a Trump admirer apparently, at least that's what my newspaper is reporting; it's 2025, and he can still win. The political strategy of offering a choice between a bad and a worse candidate will always lead to the worse candidate winning about half the time.
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Nawrocki is from branch of right thats anti-German, anti-Russian, anti-EU, ani-UKR the only foreign policy choice thats left is UK and US. He has to kiss US presidents ass, the fact thats Trump just makes this more enjoyable for him but if that was Kamala or Hillary he would have to kiss their asses nontheless. He doesn't have other options as Poland is not strong enough to stand on its own on world stage and he hates our neighbors.
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On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world.
Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental.
I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback.
Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means.
We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing.
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On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing.
As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along.
Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans.
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On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans.
Fair point, but I do think the reason we're seeing this archetype so often is because it is genuinely more electable, rather than because it is being forced on the electorate.
As for populism, we're already a few cycles into this. The populists have been in charge and failed to deliver the unicorns and they get elected again. The economy isn't the be-all-end-all anymore, I'm seeing the weird right argue that it's better to be poor but live 'our way'.
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Yes, Nawrocki was handpicked by PiS leader Kaczyński. However, I think they were genuinely not aware how much dirt that guy had in his closet. The football hooligan thing should be his bane. He unashamedly admitted that he took part in illegal fights between organized football hooligan gangs, that should be it. Amazingly it wasn't.... It's difficult to wrap one's head around this.
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On June 03 2025 02:46 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Fair point, but I do think the reason we're seeing this archetype so often is because it is genuinely more electable, rather than because it is being forced on the electorate. As for populism, we're already a few cycles into this. The populists have been in charge and failed to deliver the unicorns and they get elected again. The economy isn't the be-all-end-all anymore, I'm seeing the weird right argue that it's better to be poor but live 'our way'.
I can see that reading being true, it's certainly possible. Especially since we've lived in that kind of world for a while now, probably the younger generations are likely to adapt to those political paradigms and view them as the main factor of politics. But also everything I see about the politics in the States tells me that populism is a major factor there still and they've had those paradigms for the longest.
The way I see it, when neither party delivers anything good for the future, people end up voting against people more than they vote for people, and that's how populations get more polarized. The people who will be disappointed at the end of Trump because he hasn't done anything populist and he's only made the rich richer will probably feel betrayed, but what are they going to do, vote for Kamala Harris? That is unlikely, they'll just hope that the next guy isn't lying. He will be.
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On June 03 2025 03:02 Silvanel wrote:
Yes, Nawrocki was handpicked by PiS leader Kaczyński. However, I think they were genuinely not aware how much dirt that guy had in his closet. The football hooligan thing should be his bane. He unashamedly admitted that he took part in illegal fights between organized football hooligan gangs, that should be it. Amazingly it wasn't.... It's difficult to wrap one's head around this.
I honestly can't understand why Nawrocki's opponents think this episode from his past should lower his chances let alone seal his defeat. His supporters either don't mind it or find it cool. Most of the people who have a problem with that kind of activity wouldn't vote for him anyway and there's also a decently sized group of people who consider this issue neutralised by the fact that Donald Tusk also hung out with hooligans at some point of his life.
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Norway28683 Posts
On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans.
Naw I think for Poland the economic explanation doesn't hold water. Looking at the economy, KO are more 'traditionally conservative' and PiS is closer aligned to social democrats - having provided some real, actual and helpful welfare policies. My understanding is that the 500zl program is their most popular piece of policy.
They're engaged in all sorts of bullshit culture wars, of course, and in terms of values, they seem to embody the usual hodgepodge of anti-woman anti-science anti-eu anti-lgbt pro-'old school masculine' (which I guess is why they're fine with a hooligan pimp), but if you placed them on a left-right economic spectrum, my understanding (polish wife who is very politically literate) is that PiS would be to the left and KO to the right.
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On June 03 2025 03:36 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Naw I think for Poland the economic explanation doesn't hold water. Looking at the economy, KO are more 'traditionally conservative' and PiS is closer aligned to social democrats - having provided some real, actual and helpful welfare policies. My understanding is that the 500zl program is their most popular piece of policy. They're engaged in all sorts of bullshit culture wars, of course, and in terms of values, they seem to embody the usual hodgepodge of anti-woman anti-science anti-eu anti-lgbt pro-'old school masculine' (which I guess is why they're fine with a hooligan pimp), but if you placed them on a left-right economic spectrum, my understanding (polish wife who is very politically literate) is that PiS would be to the left and KO to the right.
Okay, thank you I don't know much about this. How do the wealthy/capitalists split up in terms of support, are they more on the side of KO, is it even?
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On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:
Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans.
In this case Nawrocki is just an accident of internal party politics.
Kaczyński had to pick a complete nobody as otherwise PIS would tear itself apart in faction wars.
Ironically similar logic applied to KO.
They spent years grooming Trzaskowski for office as a lifetime achievement award.
Come elections they wouldn't accept any alternative.
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Northern Ireland25618 Posts
On June 03 2025 02:46 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Fair point, but I do think the reason we're seeing this archetype so often is because it is genuinely more electable, rather than because it is being forced on the electorate. As for populism, we're already a few cycles into this. The populists have been in charge and failed to deliver the unicorns and they get elected again. The economy isn't the be-all-end-all anymore, I'm seeing the weird right argue that it's better to be poor but live 'our way'.
Indeed, although I think it’s a bit twofold. It does create quite the barrier.
I think there definitely is a big, and seemingly growing cohort for whom some form of cultural purity outweighs purely economic concerns. But I think it is somewhat bolted on to those who don’t see the link between the economy improving and making their actual lives better, or are skeptical that future improvements would even happen.
The problem seems to be that to some degree on the right hand side of the ledger, these two groups kind of coalesce into one bloc. One that the components of the left struggle to chip away at.
You’re either too radical for the cultural warriors on that axis if you’re economically radical enough for the other lot, or too milquetoast for both if you try to hover vaguely centre.
Quite the conundrum really. A culturally right, economically left party might appeal to some of those cohorts, but then you lose big chunks of the traditional left.
Incidentally to Poles here, how big is the office of President versus Prime Minister? With a US President having enormous power at one end of the President scale, and an Irish President basically being purely a ceremonial figurehead at the other?
Thanks for indulging my ignorance in advance!
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Norway28683 Posts
On June 03 2025 04:04 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 03:36 Liquid`Drone wrote:On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Naw I think for Poland the economic explanation doesn't hold water. Looking at the economy, KO are more 'traditionally conservative' and PiS is closer aligned to social democrats - having provided some real, actual and helpful welfare policies. My understanding is that the 500zl program is their most popular piece of policy. They're engaged in all sorts of bullshit culture wars, of course, and in terms of values, they seem to embody the usual hodgepodge of anti-woman anti-science anti-eu anti-lgbt pro-'old school masculine' (which I guess is why they're fine with a hooligan pimp), but if you placed them on a left-right economic spectrum, my understanding (polish wife who is very politically literate) is that PiS would be to the left and KO to the right. Okay, thank you I don't know much about this. How do the wealthy/capitalists split up in terms of support, are they more on the side of KO, is it even?
Haven't seen data on wealth, but urban/rural divide, age and education all point towards wealthier = more likely to support KO. Anecdotally I heard of some wealthy jerks who went for Mentzen in round 1 who might have gone Nawrocki in round 2 but that's just anecdotes.
Anyway to be more specific: Urban/rural divide: Nawrocki also won a significant majority of votes from rural residents — 63.9 percent.
In addition, 48.4% of voters from cities with up to 50,000 inhabitants voted for him, 42.6% from cities with up to 200,000 inhabitants, 34.4% from cities with up to 500,000 inhabitants and 32.9% from cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants.
Education: Nawrocki was also supported by 72.8 percent of voters with (only) primary education, 69.5 percent with vocational education, 53.6 percent with secondary education and 38.7 percent with higher education.
Trzaskowski's best age groups are 40-49 and 50-59, and he fares poorly with younger voters.
All of these to me indicate, pretty strongly, that if there was a wealth column too, Trzakowski would definitely be favored by the wealthy - and by the capitalists. And I know quite a few polish leftists (who voted Zandberg round 1) who abstained from round 2 because fuck KO neolibs (and also fuck Nawrocki for all the obvious other reasons).
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On June 03 2025 02:46 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Fair point, but I do think the reason we're seeing this archetype so often is because it is genuinely more electable, rather than because it is being forced on the electorate. As for populism, we're already a few cycles into this. The populists have been in charge and failed to deliver the unicorns and they get elected again. The economy isn't the be-all-end-all anymore, I'm seeing the weird right argue that it's better to be poor but live 'our way'.
You also have another group not voting for the economy. The environmentalists. They see the need for action right now since we did very little the last 40 years. That will actually be a net negative for the economy short term, while of course being a positive long term due to less natural disasters and more resources to use in 40 years compared to the current trajectory.
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On June 03 2025 03:17 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 03:02 Silvanel wrote:
Yes, Nawrocki was handpicked by PiS leader Kaczyński. However, I think they were genuinely not aware how much dirt that guy had in his closet. The football hooligan thing should be his bane. He unashamedly admitted that he took part in illegal fights between organized football hooligan gangs, that should be it. Amazingly it wasn't.... It's difficult to wrap one's head around this. I honestly can't understand why Nawrocki's opponents think this episode from his past should lower his chances let alone seal his defeat. His supporters either don't mind it or find it cool. Most of the people who have a problem with that kind of activity wouldn't vote for him anyway and there's also a decently sized group of people who consider this issue neutralised by the fact that Donald Tusk also hung out with hooligans at some point of his life.
Like really? Not only those fights are illegal in itself, they are also often used to settle differences between gangs about turfs and drug trade. Those hooligan gangs are considered organized crime groups and are often involved in racketeering, drugs and theft. A presidential candidate hanging out with gangsters (and not being ashamed about it) should be an end to his ambition.
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Incidentally to Poles here, how big is the office of President versus Prime Minister? With a US President having enormous power at one end of the President scale, and an Irish President basically being purely a ceremonial figurehead at the other?
The president can nominate some important officials and plays a big but supportive role in foreign and military matters. His most imporant power is getting to sign or veto laws enacted by the parliament. He can't make his own laws like the American president. I would say he's around the middle of your scale or maybe slightly closer to the American end.
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On June 03 2025 04:40 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 04:04 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 03:36 Liquid`Drone wrote:On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Naw I think for Poland the economic explanation doesn't hold water. Looking at the economy, KO are more 'traditionally conservative' and PiS is closer aligned to social democrats - having provided some real, actual and helpful welfare policies. My understanding is that the 500zl program is their most popular piece of policy. They're engaged in all sorts of bullshit culture wars, of course, and in terms of values, they seem to embody the usual hodgepodge of anti-woman anti-science anti-eu anti-lgbt pro-'old school masculine' (which I guess is why they're fine with a hooligan pimp), but if you placed them on a left-right economic spectrum, my understanding (polish wife who is very politically literate) is that PiS would be to the left and KO to the right. Okay, thank you I don't know much about this. How do the wealthy/capitalists split up in terms of support, are they more on the side of KO, is it even? Haven't seen data on wealth, but urban/rural divide, age and education all point towards wealthier = more likely to support KO. Anecdotally I heard of some wealthy jerks who went for Mentzen in round 1 who might have gone Nawrocki in round 2 but that's just anecdotes. Anyway to be more specific: Urban/rural divide: Nawrocki also won a significant majority of votes from rural residents — 63.9 percent. In addition, 48.4% of voters from cities with up to 50,000 inhabitants voted for him, 42.6% from cities with up to 200,000 inhabitants, 34.4% from cities with up to 500,000 inhabitants and 32.9% from cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. Education: Nawrocki was also supported by 72.8 percent of voters with (only) primary education, 69.5 percent with vocational education, 53.6 percent with secondary education and 38.7 percent with higher education. Trzaskowski's best age groups are 40-49 and 50-59, and he fares poorly with younger voters. All of these to me indicate, pretty strongly, that if there was a wealth column too, Trzakowski would definitely be favored by the wealthy - and by the capitalists. And I know quite a few polish leftists (who voted Zandberg round 1) who abstained from round 2 because fuck KO neolibs (and also fuck Nawrocki for all the obvious other reasons).
Hard to say from this imo, this seems to track somewhat well with US numbers with the exception of age, and we know that the ultrawealthy capitalists in the US are still showering republicans in money.
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On June 03 2025 05:12 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2025 04:40 Liquid`Drone wrote:On June 03 2025 04:04 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 03:36 Liquid`Drone wrote:On June 03 2025 02:32 Nebuchad wrote:On June 03 2025 02:12 Dan HH wrote:On June 02 2025 16:59 Gorsameth wrote:
Its the criminal part I don't get most of all. Sure right wing voters vote for right wing candidates but who sees someone that steals from you and then thinking "I want this guy to be in a position to steal more from my taxes" is just something I cannot wrap my brain around.
And sure you can call it fake news but government official stealing shit is about the most easily believable thing in the world. Almost every election these days has the scummiest thug imaginable as the 'traditional Christian values' candidate, it's not accidental. I also asked myself why they don't pick an honest person with traditionalist views since they could easily do so. I think the answer is that they genuinely see their culture under siege from immigration, LGBT rights and secularism, and every time they elected a straight shooter conservative in the past what they got was at most a slowdown or a brief break, never an actual rollback. Sleazebags not bound by silly concepts such as ethics or shame are their only hope to move the needle in the opposite direction. They want a dirty fighter on their side, someone who is defiant and aggressive rather than virtuous. The end of saving civilization justifies the means. We're not getting out of this one just by having better opposing candidates, we need to de-escalate the culture war, make people stop blaming out-groups for all their problems. And that's a monumental task because scapegoating feels so damn good, it gives people meaning, identity, community. Good luck to political scientists and psychologists trying to figure this one out cause I've got nothing. As usual I think it's important to not attribute power and agency to groups that don't really have those things. This guy was I believe handpicked by the leader of PiS, I'm pretty sure I read that? He wasn't chosen by christians as their champion. The cause and the consequence are flipped, it's the parties that represent conservatives that choose people like them, and then the voters follow along. Why do they choose people like this? Well I don't know about Poland of course but I assume it's the same as anywhere else, namely that they pretend to be populists and that gives them an advantage over the honest conservatives that are open about their austerity plans. Naw I think for Poland the economic explanation doesn't hold water. Looking at the economy, KO are more 'traditionally conservative' and PiS is closer aligned to social democrats - having provided some real, actual and helpful welfare policies. My understanding is that the 500zl program is their most popular piece of policy. They're engaged in all sorts of bullshit culture wars, of course, and in terms of values, they seem to embody the usual hodgepodge of anti-woman anti-science anti-eu anti-lgbt pro-'old school masculine' (which I guess is why they're fine with a hooligan pimp), but if you placed them on a left-right economic spectrum, my understanding (polish wife who is very politically literate) is that PiS would be to the left and KO to the right. Okay, thank you I don't know much about this. How do the wealthy/capitalists split up in terms of support, are they more on the side of KO, is it even? Haven't seen data on wealth, but urban/rural divide, age and education all point towards wealthier = more likely to support KO. Anecdotally I heard of some wealthy jerks who went for Mentzen in round 1 who might have gone Nawrocki in round 2 but that's just anecdotes. Anyway to be more specific: Urban/rural divide: Nawrocki also won a significant majority of votes from rural residents — 63.9 percent. In addition, 48.4% of voters from cities with up to 50,000 inhabitants voted for him, 42.6% from cities with up to 200,000 inhabitants, 34.4% from cities with up to 500,000 inhabitants and 32.9% from cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. Education: Nawrocki was also supported by 72.8 percent of voters with (only) primary education, 69.5 percent with vocational education, 53.6 percent with secondary education and 38.7 percent with higher education. Trzaskowski's best age groups are 40-49 and 50-59, and he fares poorly with younger voters. All of these to me indicate, pretty strongly, that if there was a wealth column too, Trzakowski would definitely be favored by the wealthy - and by the capitalists. And I know quite a few polish leftists (who voted Zandberg round 1) who abstained from round 2 because fuck KO neolibs (and also fuck Nawrocki for all the obvious other reasons). Hard to say from this imo, this seems to track somewhat well with US numbers with the exception of age, and we know that the ultrawealthy capitalists in the US are still showering republicans in money.
Don't republicans lower taxes for the rich each time they get a president? Increasing the deficit and slightly weakening the economy, thus being in line with what the rich want?
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EPT
