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Not anything i hadn't read before, but an interesting take on the immigration crisis nonetheless with AfD storming ahead in Germany.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/feb/18/europes-population-crisis-see-how-your-country-compares-visualised
Basically, if Europe wants to maintain its lifestyle, it absolutely needs immigration. Without immigration, Europe depopulates AND ages, a devastating combination for productivity. We can either make a place for migrants in our society, or we can't afford our pension plans, healthcare or much of anything else. With migration we'll still need serious reform to face the demographic crisis, but it'll be a more realistic ask.
And while the article doesn't say so, I think the reason populists are on the rise is precisely because our demographic crisis has already started. Boomers are retiring, and the millennials are having to shoulder that cost. That increased burden causes unrest and migrants are an easy scapegoat. Rather than blaming the system, we prefer to blame people with a different skin color culture. The long and the short of it, we need systemic changes and we need migration.
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We've been talking about the aging population for literal decennia now... it had to start some day. Our fault for not being prepared. I've already given up on the idea of retiring or a pension a while ago. We'll see if I can be pleasantly surprised when I'm senile or not lol
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Yes, most of the systematic problems in Europe stem from our bad demographics. With lots of old people above retirement age and way too few young people interested in modern technologies, how could it be different?
Already in the 80s, it was clear to politicians that the demographic crisis would create huge problems in the future. Despite this, they refused to do anything about it because actually effective measures would have been deeply unpopular. Now it's too late and immigration turns out to be a very flawed solution, in particular given the size of the hole that needs to be plugged.
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Migration is flawed because we're very apathic towards the people that come here and have never tried to engage properly. Instead they're dumped and frowned upon and left to their own devices all while being told that they have to integrate socially ans culturally. How are you going to experience a society that basically tells you to fend for yourself while also lamenting that you're getting all the benefits from the taxpayers while doing nothing.
The infrastructure was thought out poorly and the social element is thought out poorly. And then we wonder why immigration is such a problem...
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On February 18 2025 20:02 Acrofales wrote:Not anything i hadn't read before, but an interesting take on the immigration crisis nonetheless with AfD storming ahead in Germany. https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/feb/18/europes-population-crisis-see-how-your-country-compares-visualisedBasically, if Europe wants to maintain its lifestyle, it absolutely needs immigration. Without immigration, Europe depopulates AND ages, a devastating combination for productivity. We can either make a place for migrants in our society, or we can't afford our pension plans, healthcare or much of anything else. With migration we'll still need serious reform to face the demographic crisis, but it'll be a more realistic ask. And while the article doesn't say so, I think the reason populists are on the rise is precisely because our demographic crisis has already started. Boomers are retiring, and the millennials are having to shoulder that cost. That increased burden causes unrest and migrants are an easy scapegoat. Rather than blaming the system, we prefer to blame people with a different skin color culture. The long and the short of it, we need systemic changes and we need migration.
I think this analysis is way too lazy. It's true that Europe, as most industrialized nations, is facing demographic challenges resulting in a diminishing ratio between working age people and the rest, but it's not at all clear that immigration can or should be a solution to those challenges.
Some thoughts:
First and foremost, many European economies have absolutely insane unemployment rates. In Southern Europe unemployment rates among the youth is typically between 20 and 30 percent, and while many of those will probably end up dropping out of the labor force and will thus no longer be counted among the unemployed, there's an enormous potential, both with regards to economic ouput and quality of life, in recruiting among Europe's exisiting unemployed population. I'm pretty sure that fertility will also rise among those that, through employment, get to move out from their parents house and enjoy self sufficiency, dignity and a more affluent lifestyle.
Secondly, while immigration may seem like an attractive fix to this demographic conondrum, what will happen in a generation or two, when these immigrants have hopefully adapted to their new host country? Wouldn't they then also adapt the reproductive behaviours of the existing population?
Thirdly, we have to consider the economic and technological factors. I believe economists will say that as labor gets more scarce, firms will seek to replace labor with capital (technology), resulting in a greater productivity of labor. And I believe that, through most of the "industrial era", the disruptive potential of labor saving technologies has been seen as a much bigger threat to society than a lack of labor. With the advent of AI, it's hard to say if lack of labor or lack of work will be the biggest issue in a few decades.
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Germany is a gerontocracy at the moment.
99 in 100 top level politician is a boomer, and the main voter demographic is also all boomers.
Somebody should have told them 20 years ago that their Pensions ride on how well young people and general economy do in 2030. Not their "Achievements" in jobs. Those paid for the generations before them, not their own.
In 2070 Germany will have 6 Million less people between 18 and 70, and 4 Million more under the age of 10 or above 85.
I see no way but to increase taxation on wealth, top income and at the same time drasticly invest into industrial production and cheap energy.
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It is understated how destructive a generation boomers were, and still are.
But you're right, if we're not allowed to think outside of the system this is a very difficult equation to solve.
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On February 18 2025 23:47 KT_Elwood wrote:
Germany is a gerontocracy at the moment.
99 in 100 top level politician is a boomer, and the main voter demographic is also all boomers.
Germany has, as many countries do, a demographic problem but this part is nonsense. Even if you just take the ministers there are like 6 who are born after 1969.
Also gerontocracy is not a good description anyway because politicians in Germany actually retire (as compared to the US...) and tend not to be much older than 67. Sure, having more young people in top positions would probably be good but the age of our politicians is not such a huge issue.
EDIT: Just for fun I looked up the average age of the Bundestag at inauguration and it was 47,3.
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I'm slowly grinding my teeth at Europe for staying this passive in this while UA-RU and now US meddling situation. I'm still figure out if or what I should/can do anything about it myself though. I want to fucking shake Von der Leyen to get some sense it to her that she has to act now. That time for all this ridiculous good mannerism bullshit is over and that we need to load our collective shotgun. We have 700m people, we can crush this bozo.
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On February 20 2025 03:37 Uldridge wrote:
I'm slowly grinding my teeth at Europe for staying this passive in this while UA-RU and now US meddling situation. I'm still figure out if or what I should/can do anything about it myself though. I want to fucking shake Von der Leyen to get some sense it to her that she has to act now. That time for all this ridiculous good mannerism bullshit is over and that we need to load our collective shotgun. We have 700m people, we can crush this bozo.
I agree tbh.
Europe will meekly let the USA and Russia decide its future before it actually does anything at all though.
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Only if we let our politicians get away with it. It's time for Europeans to stop the bickering and work together to have a say in Europe's future. And yes, that includes the UK, staunch supporter of Ukraine from Day 1 of this war.
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On February 20 2025 03:37 Uldridge wrote:
I'm slowly grinding my teeth at Europe for staying this passive in this while UA-RU and now US meddling situation. I'm still figure out if or what I should/can do anything about it myself though. I want to fucking shake Von der Leyen to get some sense it to her that she has to act now. That time for all this ridiculous good mannerism bullshit is over and that we need to load our collective shotgun. We have 700m people, we can crush this bozo. Von der Leyen has little power in this. Military EU action has to come from member states and EU states are cowards.
The ship sailed after monday(?)'s emergency meeting couldn't get beyond 'we kinda should do something but no one wants to do anything'. the EU will abandon Ukraine because everyone is to scared to do anything.
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I have half a mind of walking to Kyiv. Don't know how my family will deal though lol.
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On February 20 2025 04:42 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2025 03:37 Uldridge wrote:
I'm slowly grinding my teeth at Europe for staying this passive in this while UA-RU and now US meddling situation. I'm still figure out if or what I should/can do anything about it myself though. I want to fucking shake Von der Leyen to get some sense it to her that she has to act now. That time for all this ridiculous good mannerism bullshit is over and that we need to load our collective shotgun. We have 700m people, we can crush this bozo. Von der Leyen has little power in this. Military EU action has to come from member states and EU states are cowards. The ship sailed after monday(?)'s emergency meeting couldn't get beyond 'we kinda should do something but no one wants to do anything'. the EU will abandon Ukraine because everyone is to scared to do anything.
Its not like we couldn't have seen it coming.
The sad lesson that we all need to learn here is that if you want to achieve your goals and they aren't 'keeping everything the same' you need to find a way to totally bypass any checks on your power and need for cooperation.
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One thing we all can do as Europeans, is to be better. Work out more. Aquire new skills. Read books. Engage in politics. Build your community. I noticed earlier today I actually felt more connected with my countrymen now that we live in more precarious times.
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Congratulations to our German friends. It looks like America's recent meddling didn't make a difference in these elections. :-)
![[image loading]](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GERMANY-ELECTION/zdpxaydgavx/chart.png)
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Probably. Overall not an amazing result, not something to be happy about, but kinda serviceable.
It doesn't get us forward the way we would need to go forward, but it also doesn't collapse us into fascism. Basically 4 years of status quo and important problems getting shoved down the road.
At least no FDP or BSW in Bundestag, but 20% AfD is scary and horrible.
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On February 24 2025 03:52 maybenexttime wrote:Congratulations to our German friends. It looks like America's recent meddling didn't make a difference in these elections. :-)
Didn't make a difference? Look at the AfD bar
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EPT
