EPT2. Regarding Moore's Law, read something the other day regarding analogue computing that is modelled in a loose way on the human brain, which isn't bound by such a law by virtue of it not being limited to binary processing of information. Pretty interesting but not my field, could be a load of bollocks :p
The year 2050 - Page 6
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25447 Posts
2. Regarding Moore's Law, read something the other day regarding analogue computing that is modelled in a loose way on the human brain, which isn't bound by such a law by virtue of it not being limited to binary processing of information. Pretty interesting but not my field, could be a load of bollocks :p | ||
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Millitron
United States2611 Posts
On May 11 2014 06:08 Wombat_NI wrote: 1. A continuing issue that is prevalent today, but may come into greater focus, namely as automated processes supplant human labour, the impact on the labour market. People still need jobs under current economic systems and socio-economic cohesiveness relies upon this. What will we be doing in the future when undeveloped nations catch up, and current technology becomes obsolete? 2. Regarding Moore's Law, read something the other day regarding analogue computing that is modelled in a loose way on the human brain, which isn't bound by such a law by virtue of it not being limited to binary processing of information. Pretty interesting but not my field, could be a load of bollocks :p 1) The issue with labor might not be as bad as it sounds. Someone's got to design those automated processes, someone's got to repair those robots. 2) Neat. But if it still uses any kind of electronics, its still bound by the now-failing Moore's Law. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25447 Posts
Not as good as the article I originally read, but can't locate that! My understanding was not that Moore's Law wouldn't apply, but I guess that 'when used in projections of computing system advancement', it might need re-applied if a new way of constructing processors is viable. If that makes sense? | ||
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Millitron
United States2611 Posts
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urboss
Austria1223 Posts
More than half of nowadays jobs are bullshit jobs no one actually needs! That is why unemployment because of machines replacing us will never become a problem. I really encourage you to read this article: http://www.strikemag.org/bullshit-jobs/ This is the NeuroGrid paper by the way. https://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/documents/BenjaminEtAlNeurogrid2014.pdf | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25447 Posts
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zatic
Zurich15329 Posts
On May 11 2014 16:52 urboss wrote: Even though most manual labor has been automated, people are still working the same amount of time as 100 years ago. More than half of nowadays jobs are bullshit jobs no one actually needs! That is why unemployment because of machines replacing us will never become a problem. I really encourage you to read this article: http://www.strikemag.org/bullshit-jobs/ This is exactly why automation is a big problem, and why it will continue to be an even bigger problem in the future. Sure there will always be "bullshit" jobs. I argue there will even be a whole lot more in areas that automation can't reach, say in personal coaches, personal consultants etc. The problem is that all these bullshit jobs pay shitty. In the past we were able to compensate for lost manufacturing by creating service sector jobs that payed at least on the same level. Now we are seeing those same service sector jobs being replaced more and more by software. What will compensate for that? The only thing on the horizon is more bullshit jobs that pay less and less. As a result you will see more and more a division of society into the super rich (capital holders, just like today), the wealthy (say the engineers who built the software) and a big bulk of service sector jobs with shitty pay. Like I said earlier: On May 07 2014 23:53 zatic wrote: There won't be major revolutionary changes, but there will be a progression along the lines we are already observing today: A significant increase in inequality of wealth, and jobs being cut / downgraded in favor of automation. The effect will be that the majority will indeed still be working, but in general real wages will be stagnating or declining. [...] | ||
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urboss
Austria1223 Posts
Being "employed" is still a remnant from the beginnings of the industrial age when lots of people were actually needed in manufacturing. Suddenly everyone needed to have a job since people who had a job started earning more and prices increased. People without a job just barely survived. Governments started to "push the economy" to create more jobs and this started a vicious circle. Jobs were created for the sake of creating jobs and not because there was an actual need for them. Nowadays, when more and more work can be automated we end up in this funny situation that there are lots of useless jobs, while a fraction of the work would suffice. The solution would be to abandon the concept of "employment" entirely. Get rid of all the useless jobs of today and downscale the economy. Introduce seasonal cycles of work: Everyone needs to get their hands dirty, but only for certain periods of the year. Unfortunately, this would require a major change of values. Currently, human nature still works against it. But as we have seen with modern concepts such as equality and green tech, the world might eventually succumb to it. | ||
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riyanme
Philippines940 Posts
On May 06 2014 22:01 urboss wrote: How do you think the world will look like in 2050? Will there be major wars until then or will the world drift toward peace? SAME Will democracies prevail? SAME Will there be a new world power? YES, CHINA Will global warming and overpopulation finally show their effects? YES Will we have found efficient ways of creating renewable energy? NO How will we be communicating with each other? "SMART" items Will there still be Facebook and Twitter around? NO Will people still be having a social life in the real world? YES What are people going to do in their spare time? I DONT KNOW Are new forms of art and entertainment going to emerge? KOREAN A/E to the MAX Is the music going to sound different? SAME Will YouTube beat television? NO How might future games look like? VMMORPG Will there be a robot in every household? NO Is there finally going to be a robot that cooks for me and cleans up afterwards? NO Are we still going to have Smartphones? Wearables? Google Glass? SMARTPHONES = YES Is everyone going to have chip implants? NO Will computers become more powerful? YES Will Moore's law still be in place in 2050? I DONT KNOW How will the Internet look like? I DONT KNOW Will it still be possible to live completely offline? YES Will governments take over the Internet? NO Will there be new ways of transportation?YES Will the electric car take over the traditional car? I DONT KNOW How will technology enable new ways of warfare? PROMOTE MASSIVE INSTANT DEVASTATION Will there be wars at all? YES Will women reach equality? SAME Will we still be dating in the real world? YES, WHAT KIND OF QUESTION IS THAT??? How will partners find each other? SAME Will there still be sex? YES, WTF!!! How many times will the stock markets crash until 2050? I DONT KNOW Will there be a major change in our economic system? I DONT KNOW Will the majority of people still be working? YES Will there still be poverty? YES, OFC Will we finally be able to treat diseases without side effects? NO Is there going to be a major breakthrough in the sciences? YES What will be the new threats to mankind? YES Will we be able to colonize other planets by 2050? NO Please present your own vision of the future! NO COMMENT The questions are only here to give suggestions as to where the discussion might lead to. You can answer some of these questions, or go more into detail on single questions, or just ignore the questions entirely! So, how do you think the year 2050 will look like? OPEN AND CHAOTIC What will be vanished, that is common nowadays? I DONT KNOW What will be important changes that will affect our lives? TECHNOLOGY What do you wish there would exist by 2050? NO COMMENT | ||
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BungaBunga
Italy23 Posts
There will be no sex. Humans will be bred artificially. There will be nuclear world war. Humans will live in huge underwater cities because the earth's surface is too contaminated. | ||
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urboss
Austria1223 Posts
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/182583-ibm-discovers-new-class-of-ultra-tough-self-healing-recyclable-plastics-that-could-redefine-almost-every-industry | ||
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zatic
Zurich15329 Posts
On May 07 2014 23:53 zatic wrote: Answering from a western / central European perspective: Women will most likely not reach complete equality (maybe never), however we can expect things to progress further. The differences will most likely be measurable only in jobs in terms of pay and the type of employment women are found in. However I do believe the effect will be significantly less than it is today. Dating will look similar to what it does today, but will be significantly aided by technology. Think of dating algorithms performing in real time during a conversation happens. You might have a wearable device that answers "should I kiss her?" for you as the conversation happens. Software will tell you another person is a likely match just from sensory data and analyzing conversation. There will be still sex, but I believe there will be less. Human communication will in general get more sterile and less physical. We see some of the effects already today: I am thinking somewhat along the lines of this article http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex There won't be major revolutionary changes, but there will be a progression along the lines we are already observing today: A significant increase in inequality of wealth, and jobs being cut / downgraded in favor of automation. The effect will be that the majority will indeed still be working, but in general real wages will be stagnating or declining. You could argue that there will be more poverty in the future going simply by percentile of income, however the poor of 2050 will be able to afford more luxuries too. Just as someone in poverty owns a smartphone today, the essential technological luxuries (say, computer aided dating mentioned before) will be affordable to the poor as well. It's been over ten years and I think about this post a lot. I feel like I was dead on, but did not expect the dramatically squeezed timeline to withering human connection and sexlessness. Sames with real wage stagnation. | ||
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