EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 181
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
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Reaps
United Kingdom1280 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:25 RoomOfMush wrote: This sounds like a real mess. From what I am reading it sounds like the entire government is collapsing. I am just curious how brits, especially english people, feel about this. Is this just media buzz or are regular people actually afraid of what lies ahead? My job requires me to travel around UK a lot, talked to a lot of people about this, the majority say they will just wait and see what happens, thinking it will just "blow over", some are a little worried of course but say there is too much uncertainty to panic yet. A few even said they don't care and just want to get on with their lives. To be fair, a lot of people who are saying UK is fucked etc in this thread are people from outside of the country. Then again, Brits are notorious for staying calm even in the most dire of situations  | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:25 RoomOfMush wrote: This sounds like a real mess. From what I am reading it sounds like the entire government is collapsing. I am just curious how brits, especially english people, feel about this. Is this just media buzz or are regular people actually afraid of what lies ahead? From what I am hearing, it's not just the government, but the entire political leadership. What the hell is going on? You really woulnd't expect his level of headless chaos with Britain. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
On June 29 2016 23:22 KwarK wrote: What the hell are you talking about? To be in the single market they must conform to the regulations of that market which are exactly the same regulations that the leave group were demanding freedom from. Only now they have regulations without any role in making them. And we've had the metric system for decades. I grew up under it and I'm pushing 30. I don't remember any other system. You may not think Scotland needs to leave but this is another vote in which the English majority fucked things up for Scotland. You think they don't mind what happened to the pound? They were using that and now it's been devalued and all imported shit costs way more. Every time Scotland votes one way, England votes the other and then England fucks it up Scotland gets more independent. I don't think Scotland cares about your opinion. Off course they will have to confirm to regulations,but I don't see that as being a problem. They only have to confirm to regulations when it comes to trading with the eu. With all other countries they don't have to conform to eu regulations anymore and they can make their own deals. The pound dropped 10%, so what big deal. People need to start making up their mind about currencys lol. Is a strong currency good and a weak currency bad, or is it the other way around. People use both statements at will depending on what they want to argue. (though in all fairness i have not seen you personally use the argument both ways,this is more a general thing and I have to agree with you that a strong currency in general is better then a weak currency, still 10% is nothing to worry about imo.There are both good and bad economic effects) And I never said Scotland should care about my opinion, not sure what you mean with that remark. Its just my opinion,posted on a forum where people post opinions and discuss them. What exactly was it that Cameron said btw to corbyn? "for heavens sake man,just go" or something like that. Got to love English politics,always interesting to watch. Personally I do hope corbyn stays,he seems like a straight forward and fair person. | ||
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Zealos
United Kingdom3576 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:37 zatic wrote: From what I am hearing, it's not just the government, but the entire political leadership. What the hell is going on? You really woulnd't expect his level of headless chaos with Britain. Yeah I have no idea whats going on haha My main concern is that if Labour slide into total irrelevancy, then we'll end up with basically no viable opposition, which is bad for the country regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:25 RoomOfMush wrote: This sounds like a real mess. From what I am reading it sounds like the entire government is collapsing. I am just curious how brits, especially english people, feel about this. Is this just media buzz or are regular people actually afraid of what lies ahead? The government is very stable, its just not going to do anything until a new leader is elected, the opposition however are in complete chaos. Also: | ||
KwarK
United States44203 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:25 RoomOfMush wrote: This sounds like a real mess. From what I am reading it sounds like the entire government is collapsing. I am just curious how brits, especially english people, feel about this. Is this just media buzz or are regular people actually afraid of what lies ahead? Again Corbyn is leader of the shadow government, the people who roleplay at running the country because it's not their turn right now. Okay, imagine you're 7 years old and your 10 year old brother is playing a single player game on his Sega. However mom told you both to play together so he gave you the second controller. Only it's not plugged in. And deep down you know this because you're not a stupid 7 year old. But you press the buttons and you get into it anyway because there's shit happening on the screen and you can still play, even if you're not literally playing the game. Well that's basically what the shadow government do. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
When looking at the ftse you also have to take into account the 10% drop of the pound. | ||
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Gowerly
United Kingdom916 Posts
On June 30 2016 01:04 Zaros wrote: The government is very stable, its just not going to do anything until a new leader is elected, the opposition however are in complete chaos. Also: https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/748180045563301888 The 100 isn't that great an indicator of performance, the 250 is used as a more accurate index and that's still down > 1000 points. | ||
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:51 pmh wrote: Off course they will have to confirm to regulations,but I don't see that as being a problem. They only have to confirm to regulations when it comes to trading with the eu. With all other countries they don't have to conform to eu regulations anymore and they can make their own deals. The pound dropped 10%, so what big deal. People need to start making up their mind about currencys lol. Is a strong currency good and a weak currency bad, or is it the other way around. People use both statements at will depending on what they want to argue. (though in all fairness i have not seen you personally use the argument both ways,this is more a general thing and I have to agree with you that a strong currency in general is better then a weak currency, still 10% is nothing to worry about imo.There are both good and bad economic effects) And I never said Scotland should care about my opinion, not sure what you mean with that remark. Its just my opinion,posted on a forum where people post opinions and discuss them. What exactly was it that Cameron said btw to corbyn? "for heavens sake man,just go" or something like that. Got to love English politics,always interesting to watch. Personally I do hope corbyn stays,he seems like a straight forward and fair person. A low value currency is good for countries with strong exports like china. If you export and your currency is weak it means your goods will be cheaper for other countries; they will probably buy more of your stuff. But if you dont export that much and instead import a lot it is bad to have a weak currency because you have to pay more for foreign products. As far as I know (and I might be wrong on this one) the UK is not very strong on export. A weak currency is not something great for them. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6303 Posts
On June 30 2016 00:51 pmh wrote: Off course they will have to confirm to regulations,but I don't see that as being a problem. They only have to confirm to regulations when it comes to trading with the eu. With all other countries they don't have to conform to eu regulations anymore and they can make their own deals. The pound dropped 10%, so what big deal. People need to start making up their mind about currencys lol. Is a strong currency good and a weak currency bad, or is it the other way around. People use both statements at will depending on what they want to argue. (though in all fairness i have not seen you personally use the argument both ways,this is more a general thing and I have to agree with you that a strong currency in general is better then a weak currency, still 10% is nothing to worry about imo.There are both good and bad economic effects) And I never said Scotland should care about my opinion, not sure what you mean with that remark. Its just my opinion,posted on a forum where people post opinions and discuss them. What exactly was it that Cameron said btw to corbyn? "for heavens sake man,just go" or something like that. Got to love English politics,always interesting to watch. Personally I do hope corbyn stays,he seems like a straight forward and fair person. The effects of currency devaluations are actually pretty clear. Short term it mostly produces inflation (imports become more expensive) and it has negative consequences for FDI. Long term it's good for exports. Whether the drop in the pound is enough to significantly benefit manufacturing is doubtful though. The reason the drop in the pound is seen as bad is because of a weakening in the fundamentals of the British economy and a long term reduced growth potential. In the long term it'll probably ease the recovery. Anyway the British economy is very liberal and dynamic so they'll manage. They'll just have a lower growth than they would have had staying in the single market. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
Edit: I'm not saying Britain is not worse off, it very likely is. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On June 30 2016 03:20 Sbrubbles wrote: I would be skeptical of saying anything about the effects of brexit on long term growth. Short term, british exporters will suffer to some extent as they will have to deal with new bureocracy, and the exchange rate will adjust to partially balance this out, but stating that, after the smoke clears, this will have an appreciable effect on investment or technology adoption, is an exercise in divination. Edit: I'm not saying Britain is not worse off, it very likely is. I would simply point to what the overwhelming number of economists have said regarding the full implications of an Article 50 invocation and a full exit. This depends greatly on the kind of deal the UK negotiates out of it If it turns out to be similar to Norway, and thus common market plus free movement (essentially what the UK has now), but minus any political influence in EU legislation, the Thatcher rebate and EU subsidies, then, well...yes, economic ramifications are going to be survivable, though I'm not sure if that would be popular at all since the majority of the Brexit vote was motivated by immigration (and the free movement clauses of the EU). If it turns into a full reversion to WTO standards, then yes, it will absolutely harm the UK economy. The primary reason it's been the target of so much FDI and is/was growing quite nicely was due to a major financial sector that could service the EU (which would migrate over to Paris/Frankfurt if free movement of capital is lost), as well as serving as a gateway to the EU for many firms (which a major break would cause a migration of, over to Ireland or elsewhere). The UK may still recover if it can reorient it's economy and shift it away from this (as well as make up for the structural shortfalls fiscally that the loss of EU subsidies to underserved areas and scientific research a withdrawal from the EU will definitely entail), but a weaker pound for a major net-importing country, and knocking down the UK economy's primary pillars, is not a recipe for economic growth. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Lonyo
United Kingdom3884 Posts
On June 29 2016 23:25 Dan HH wrote: Does he seriously believe that leave won for economic reasons? That's incredibly naive. Not really. The reality is that most of the gains post-recession have been for the already rich, and minimal gains have been felt by the lower echelons. (Paywall) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1ad5c43a-a593-11e5-a91e-162b86790c58.html https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/scale-economic-inequality-uk https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/15/wealth-inequality-uk-ticking-timebomb-credit-suisse-crash "The UK is the only G7 country to record rising wealth inequality in 2000-14" Don't see how he is at all wrong. The economy growing does not mean that the welath or standards for the majority of the population are improving, it just means more money, and in the UK for certain, and in much of the worl, a disproportionate share of that goes to the already rich. If the poor don't see any benefit from being in the EU, then why the hell would economic arguments persuade them to remain in it? It's done little to nothing for them as far as they are concerned. | ||
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Lonyo
United Kingdom3884 Posts
On June 30 2016 01:07 pmh wrote: Yup,the panic seems minimal at least for now. Maybe it will all work out just fine though I personally think its not over yet. When looking at the ftse you also have to take into account the 10% drop of the pound. Yep. According to a study in 2013, 77% of the income in the FTSE 100 is from overseas. Really you only see c.23% of the UK impact being reflected in the FTSE, assuming no significant movements elsewhere. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On June 30 2016 03:38 Lord Tolkien wrote: I would simply point to what the overwhelming number of economists have said regarding the full implications of an Article 50 invocation and a full exit. This depends greatly on the kind of deal the UK negotiates out of it If it turns out to be similar to Norway, and thus common market plus free movement (essentially what the UK has now), but minus any political influence in EU legislation, the Thatcher rebate and EU subsidies, then, well...yes, economic ramifications are going to be survivable, though I'm not sure if that would be popular at all since the majority of the Brexit vote was motivated by immigration (and the free movement clauses of the EU). If it turns into a full reversion to WTO standards, then yes, it will absolutely harm the UK economy. The primary reason it's been the target of so much FDI and is/was growing quite nicely was due to a major financial sector that could service the EU (which would migrate over to Paris/Frankfurt if free movement of capital is lost), as well as serving as a gateway to the EU for many firms (which a major break would cause a migration of, over to Ireland or elsewhere). The UK may still recover if it can reorient it's economy and shift it away from this (as well as make up for the structural shortfalls fiscally that the loss of EU subsidies to underserved areas and scientific research a withdrawal from the EU will definitely entail), but a weaker pound for a major net-importing country, and knocking down the UK economy's primary pillars, is not a recipe for economic growth. An overwhelming number of economists agree that brexit is a terrible move, no doubt about that, but I would point out (recent poll of british economits) that while the significant majority (72% in this case) see a negative long term effect, is it less than the 88% who agree on short term effects. Moreso, the poll asks about an impact of brexit over the level of gdp, so if most believed in a negative effect on long term growth, that number should have gone up from 88%, as the negative effect accumulates, not down to 72%. I know this poll is probably not what you were refering to when making the overwhelming number of economists argument, but I feel it's representative (also, it was the first one that showed up when googled). You are making specific sectorial arguments about who will lose with brexit, and I have no problem with that (and overall agree!), but long term growth is not about which industries win or lose, it's about productivity. You might have a good argument there about loss of EU subsidies for science; I'll admit I know nothing about that. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22488 Posts
On June 30 2016 03:43 Lonyo wrote: Not really. The reality is that most of the gains post-recession have been for the already rich, and minimal gains have been felt by the lower echelons. (Paywall) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1ad5c43a-a593-11e5-a91e-162b86790c58.html https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/scale-economic-inequality-uk https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/15/wealth-inequality-uk-ticking-timebomb-credit-suisse-crash "The UK is the only G7 country to record rising wealth inequality in 2000-14" Don't see how he is at all wrong. The economy growing does not mean that the welath or standards for the majority of the population are improving, it just means more money, and in the UK for certain, and in much of the worl, a disproportionate share of that goes to the already rich. If the poor don't see any benefit from being in the EU, then why the hell would economic arguments persuade them to remain in it? It's done little to nothing for them as far as they are concerned. Cutting off the nose to spite the face is the term I believe. Leaving the EU to hurt the rich by a small % that they can afford to lose while the working class lose a % they will sorely miss is a bad choice, regardless of how much you hate the rich elites. | ||
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