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On April 04 2013 11:52 zpikduM wrote:
Why would Russia or China want to get involved with NK right now? China makes a lot of its wealth from selling goods to the U.S. and its allies. Meanwhile, Russia has spent the last twenty years trying to bridge the gap between it and the US since the fall of the USSR.
What do either of these nations have to gain by supporting NK right now? To use a fair analogy, NK is low on chips at the poker table, and the only way its gonna get back into the game is to play high risk, to bluff, to be aggressive with the chips it has left. But what happens when someone calls their bluff?
Because nk is still their allies.
Anything that China or Russia do will have an impact to the rest of their allies opinion on them.
Not to mention Japan hatred against USA had been reduced due to the island dispute and increased against China.
It's no luck that Japan policy just suddenly becomes more aggressive against China,some say it's helped or suggested by the us because then us would have more reasons to have more Asia influence and also threaten China reputation of trying to develop army size without looking hostile
But even then, nk is still China ally and it is a difficult choice for China for what to do
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On April 04 2013 09:49 Doodsmack wrote:
Do people still care about/take NK seriously? The threats are for domestic political purposes lol, this has been well-known for years and years.
Every government does things for domestic political purposes; that doesn't mean the end result couldn't be bad. In the past decade North Korea sunk a South Korean battleship, killing more than 30 and shelled some villages killing several, so it's not unheard of that some sort of provocative action might be carried out soon.
These kind of actions might be small and in the past never escalated because South Korea never retaliated. What is more dangerous now is that public opinion in South Korea has hardened towards the North because of these previous incidents and the South Korean government looks a lot more likely to actually retaliate if there is any provocation this time. This could lead to a counter-reaction from the North and escalate into war.
Of course nobody wants a war but if North Korea does some new terrorist action this time and South Korea bends over and takes it there will be public outrage and the ruling Saenuridang (conservatives) who were elected partly for their tough attitude to NK will be forced to do something. This is the real danger in the current scenario- SK looks like it is no longer willing to go on appeasing the North, and whether the North will understand this and back down or act anyway is the question.
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Literally waiting for shots to be fired at this point. Seems like the threats have finally gotten a bit out of control.
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On April 04 2013 12:24 emjaytron wrote:
wtf, there was a nuke with a yield of 10kg of TNT? weighing 30kg? what is the point of that?
It's 10 tons of tnt
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It's also interesting to note that China hasn't issued any statements asking for the US to back off or not deploy these defense measures. Look at the fuss over missile defense systems against Iran being deployed in Eastern Europe a few years back. Powerhouse countries like Russia, China, and the U.S. don't like crap in their backyard, and don't tolerate it unless there are legitimate concerns. China isn't backing NK this time.
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I've heard rumors that apparently China has placed soldiers, etc on North Korean borders.
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So they've approved nuclear strikes against the US, but most people doubt they're capable of mounting a ballistic device able to reach the US? Up until now I would've said they were all talk, but those are big words. Too threatening to not have some weight behind it. A little scared of what might happen, but hopefully the military measures the US has taken will be sufficient in preventing any form of damage.
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On April 04 2013 12:55 LimitSEA wrote:
So they've approved nuclear strikes against the US, but most people doubt they're capable of mounting a ballistic device able to reach the US? Up until now I would've said they were all talk, but those are big words. Too threatening to not have some weight behind it. A little scared of what might happen, but hopefully the military measures the US has taken will be sufficient in preventing any form of damage.
I think they're just trying to scare us, which obviously wont work.
I think the big thing stopping an invasion is and always will be China being right across the river from NK.
But I think most of their threats are empty. otherwise
USA USA USA
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yeah On April 04 2013 07:36 micronesia wrote:
I think NK is waiting for the USA or SK to 'crack' under the pressure and make some kind of an offer to reduce the tension. I don't think this will work. Their bluff will be called. that's got to be it. What they're saying just doesn't make sense no matter how you're looking at it.
Let's just assume, for a second, they have nukes ready right now while everyone thinks that it'll still take some years to have them ready for missile-use. Let's further assume they do want to nuke the USA and are willing to go full suicidal. If that's the case, why would they tell anyone? The rest of the world thinking NK still needs 5 more years (or whatever), not knowing about it in time would be the best thing they could ask for if they really wanted to go nuts AND had the capabilities to do so.
I mean, obviously just my laymans opinion but I usually don't tell people when I got a pocked of aces either if my intend is to use them to the fullest... I guess it's a little simplified though
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They are probably just hoping to get more foreign aid in exchange for behaving themselves
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On April 04 2013 12:37 krndandaman wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2013 11:52 zpikduM wrote:
Why would Russia or China want to get involved with NK right now? China makes a lot of its wealth from selling goods to the U.S. and its allies. Meanwhile, Russia has spent the last twenty years trying to bridge the gap between it and the US since the fall of the USSR.
What do either of these nations have to gain by supporting NK right now? To use a fair analogy, NK is low on chips at the poker table, and the only way its gonna get back into the game is to play high risk, to bluff, to be aggressive with the chips it has left. But what happens when someone calls their bluff? China is getting tired of NK but they remain their allies because what worries them more is the lack of a buffer zone between them and South Korea/USA. If NK collapses (which they will without Chinese help) the US/SK will be right on their borders. They don't want that.
All these assumptions about China backing NK in case of it performing a nuclear strike are hilarious.
What's even funnier is thinking in terms of SK/USA being a threat to Chinese border. As if USA and SK would simultaneously attack China with their ground forces rofl. This is just so fearmongerish and childish to me.
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1019 Posts
On April 04 2013 13:25 chimpandfrog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2013 12:37 krndandaman wrote:On April 04 2013 11:52 zpikduM wrote:
Why would Russia or China want to get involved with NK right now? China makes a lot of its wealth from selling goods to the U.S. and its allies. Meanwhile, Russia has spent the last twenty years trying to bridge the gap between it and the US since the fall of the USSR.
What do either of these nations have to gain by supporting NK right now? To use a fair analogy, NK is low on chips at the poker table, and the only way its gonna get back into the game is to play high risk, to bluff, to be aggressive with the chips it has left. But what happens when someone calls their bluff? China is getting tired of NK but they remain their allies because what worries them more is the lack of a buffer zone between them and South Korea/USA. If NK collapses (which they will without Chinese help) the US/SK will be right on their borders. They don't want that. All these assumptions about China backing NK in case of it performing a nuclear strike are hilarious. What's even funnier is thinking in terms of SK/USA being a threat to Chinese border. As if USA and SK would simultaneously attack China with their ground forces rofl. This is just so fearmongerish and childish to me.
Theres historical precedence for this, because it's exactly what happened during the korean war, and it's the main reason why the US/south korean forces couldn't reunify the country at that time. I don't think anyone wants the US and china to confront each other on the korean peninsula again.
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A couple of NK subs left NK today. They could theoretically put a nuke inside a sub and detonate it in a west coast bay. =/
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On April 04 2013 13:36 Loophole wrote:
A couple of NK subs left NK today. They could theoretically put a nuke inside a sub and detonate it in a west coast bay. =/
Were they subs that are designed to launch nuclear missiles? Or does North Korea even have those yet?
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On April 04 2013 13:40 autoexec wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2013 13:36 Loophole wrote:
A couple of NK subs left NK today. They could theoretically put a nuke inside a sub and detonate it in a west coast bay. =/ Were they subs that are designed to launch nuclear missiles? Or does North Korea even have those yet?
Their best subs are 65 year old soviet subs and their newer domestic subs are small and much less capable. I highly doubt their subs could launch a SLBM even if they did have the tech to build the missiles, which they don't. It's pretty advanced and not many countries have the capability.
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Not sure if anyone has posted this yet buuuuut:
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/03/17580610-north-korea-warns-its-military-allowed-to-wage-nuke-strikes-against-us?lite
North Korea warns its military allowed to wage nuke strikes against US
North Korea escalated its provocative rhetoric on Thursday, warning that its military is authorized to wage "cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified" nuclear strikes to protect against the United States.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown no inclination to back off yet. The rogue nuclear state's latest move was banning South Korean workers from the jointly run Kaesong industrial zone.
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Kaesong, a major source of income for the impoverished, communist North, is home to 124 South Korean companies that employ 53,000 North Korean workers in a cross-border, heavily fortified joint enterprise. Permission is granted on a daily basis for South Korean workers to cross into the complex, situated in the North, the BBC reported.
So supposedly the NK military has been given 'official' permission now to use nukes, and they've shut out South Koreans from a joint industrial area largely run by South Korea and major source of income for the North.
I honestly can no longer tell if this is becoming a Korean version of the Cuban Missile Crisis, or if North Korea has just gotten incredibly stupid and reckless with their rhetoric.
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On April 04 2013 13:36 white_horse wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2013 13:25 chimpandfrog wrote:On April 04 2013 12:37 krndandaman wrote:On April 04 2013 11:52 zpikduM wrote:
Why would Russia or China want to get involved with NK right now? China makes a lot of its wealth from selling goods to the U.S. and its allies. Meanwhile, Russia has spent the last twenty years trying to bridge the gap between it and the US since the fall of the USSR.
What do either of these nations have to gain by supporting NK right now? To use a fair analogy, NK is low on chips at the poker table, and the only way its gonna get back into the game is to play high risk, to bluff, to be aggressive with the chips it has left. But what happens when someone calls their bluff? China is getting tired of NK but they remain their allies because what worries them more is the lack of a buffer zone between them and South Korea/USA. If NK collapses (which they will without Chinese help) the US/SK will be right on their borders. They don't want that. All these assumptions about China backing NK in case of it performing a nuclear strike are hilarious. What's even funnier is thinking in terms of SK/USA being a threat to Chinese border. As if USA and SK would simultaneously attack China with their ground forces rofl. This is just so fearmongerish and childish to me. Theres historical precedence for this, because it's exactly what happened during the korean war, and it's the main reason why the US/south korean forces couldn't reunify the country at that time. I don't think anyone wants the US and china to confront each other on the korean peninsula again.
Historical precedence from cold war era doesn't explain anything that has to do with modern day affairs. It is entirely different and would simply not fly in this information age and 24/7 awareness. It's as good as modeling after 1812 events.
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That update is basically just their stepping up of more rhetoric against the US.
What I'm worried about is the USA suddenly having all these responses and saturating the media with "NK this" and "NK analysis" here. Its identical to what they did in the days before we invaded the Middle East. We were shoved into the face of "the enemy" and we were drummed up on how dangerous they were becoming and how imperative it was for us to go in there and "stop something before its too late".
This could very well be just another staged escalation to justify another war like so many throughout history already.
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North Korea seen moving mid-range missile to their east coast.
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has moved what appears to be a mid-range Musudan missile to its east coast, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said on Thursday, quoting multiple government sources privy to intelligence from U.S. and South Korean authorities.
It was not clear if the missile was mounted with a warhead or whether the North was planning to fire it or was just putting it on display as a show of force, one South Korean government source was quoted as saying.
"South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities have obtained indications the North has moved an object that appears to be a mid-range missile to the east coast," the source said.
The Musudan missile is believed to have a range of 3,000 km (1,875 miles) or more, which would put all of South Korea and Japan in range and possibly also the U.S. territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean. North Korea is not believed to have tested these mid-range missiles, according to most independent experts
South Korea's defense ministry declined to comment.
North Korea has threatened a nuclear strike on the United States and missile attacks on its Pacific bases, including in Guam. Those threats followed new U.N. sanctions imposed on the North after it carried out its third nuclear test in February.
The missile was moved to the coast by train. The North has a missile launch site on the northeastern coast, which it has used to unsuccessfully test-fire long-range rockets in the past.
The Yonhap report did not say if the missile had been moved to the missile site.
Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper issued a similar report on Thursday, saying the North had moved what appeared to be a long-range missile to its east coast.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE93301S20130404?irpc=932
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EPT
