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On November 07 2012 14:34 Adreme wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:32 paralleluniverse wrote:
Romney is a sore loser. It's over.
The only states left to be called is Virginia and Florida. And he disputes Ohio.
Even if he won all three of these, Obama will still win 272-266.
There is no hope. It is over and he has lost but the man has spent 7 years(and thats assuming he wasnt planning it when he ran for govenor of Mass) preparing for this one night and to fall short he probably needs time to figure out how he is going to concede and what he wants to do.
That and I'm sure that they're waiting until they are sure on either Ohio or Colorado. Just because TV says it is so that the President won does not make it so.
Again, I'm not arguing that Romney is going to win this he just wants to be sure and frankly that's reasonable.
edit: And something Gore should have done before he made his concession call to President Bush in 2000.
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On November 07 2012 14:35 hypercube wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:22 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 07 2012 14:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Is Nate Silver going 50/50 again? He went 49/50 last time. It looks like 50/50 this time. To be fair a better score would be something around 46. Giving Obama a 50.3% chance of winning Florida should be worth 0.503 points, not 1. Of course his opponents wouldn't have given him that slack so I understand the sentiment.
The reason he gave FL a 50.3% is because it's very very close.
And it is. It adds, not detracts, to the correctness of his prediction.
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2008 seemed more "brutal," Obama had to get past Hillary just to fight McCain! He was a brave man.
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And dems get majority in senate as expected
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Right now, Obama is probably like "gg it up, yo"
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Where does the house candidates even come from? Is that based on the amount of states and not the population or something?
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Would be supremely epic if Obama came up stage and did a Full Monty type dance, then just walked off.
Also, so many of those women just dancing... Turning me on!
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On November 07 2012 14:36 Adreme wrote:
CBS has now projected Obama to win Virgina.
Just more salt in the wounds for Romney. Florida is a bottle of lemon juice.
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On November 07 2012 14:35 hypercube wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:22 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 07 2012 14:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Is Nate Silver going 50/50 again? He went 49/50 last time. It looks like 50/50 this time. To be fair a better score would be something around 46. Giving Obama a 50.3% chance of winning Florida should be worth 0.503 points, not 1. Of course his opponents wouldn't have given him that slack so I understand the sentiment.
What you want to do is compare the number of states he actually got correct to the total amount of confidence he had in his predictions. ie, if Silver gave 4 states a 75% chance of being correct, but he was actually right on all 4, he's underestimating his model's accuracy by saying just 75%. Ideally, over the long run, the total states he gets correct should equal the total sum of his probabilities.
Other statisticians like Sam Wang or Drew Linzer, whose predictions are also doing very well tonight, expressed higher confidence in their picks. In fact one of those two has criticized Silver for underselling his own model with low confidences.
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Florida is stuck at 97%? Can't finish the last 3?
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my reaction to romney losing:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jOg2F.gif)
dont care if i get banned for making a post that is just an image
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On November 07 2012 14:38 MooMu wrote:
Florida is stuck at 97%? Can't finish the last 3?
Hanging chads.
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On November 07 2012 14:38 Roflhaxx wrote:
Where does the house candidates even come from? Is that based on the amount of states and not the population or something?
House is depending on state population
Senate each state gets two
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On November 07 2012 14:38 Roflhaxx wrote:
Where does the house candidates even come from? Is that based on the amount of states and not the population or something?
Each state is guaranteed one rep and then there's another for every ~650,000 citizens or so, iirc. The states are all divided into districts, and each district has a rep.
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On November 07 2012 14:37 MountainDewJunkie wrote:
2008 seemed more "brutal," Obama had to get past Hillary just to fight McCain! He was a brave man.
Romney basically got destroyed by Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum. They dug out all the crap about him, Obama just had to restate it.
Hillary really uncanned all the racism on Obama during the primary. McCain pussyfooted around it to avoid being labeled a racist himself.
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On November 07 2012 14:32 Zergneedsfood wrote:
Not sure why people are calling this the most "negative campaign" in history.
Weren't like.....elections in the 18th century brutal? Didn't Andrew Jackson's wife commit suicide over allegations from an opposing campaign? :[
Why everyone so mad? D:
So what if it's brutal.
Romney deserved to get wrecked by attacks for his lies, flip-flops, vagueness, and disastrous economic policies.
It's not just about re-electing Obama, it's also about preventing Romney being elected.
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AP officially calls Virginia for Obama. Still Romney refusing to concede. He will be judged in these final hours and how he handles his defeat. So far no good.
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On November 07 2012 14:37 MountainDewJunkie wrote:
2008 seemed more "brutal," Obama had to get past Hillary just to fight McCain! He was a brave man.
Personally I would be much more afraid of Hilary than McCain. After winning that crazy of a primary, McCain must have felt like a victory lap.
On that matter I would have also been more afraid of Palin . . . I vote conservative, and she even scares me.
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On November 07 2012 14:38 Roflhaxx wrote:
Where does the house candidates even come from? Is that based on the amount of states and not the population or something?
each state gets a certain number of representatives to the house of representatives. The number of representatives that each state gets is based on the states population
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On November 07 2012 13:47 slyboogie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 13:44 jpak wrote:On November 07 2012 13:44 ticklishmusic wrote:
I'm actually ok with Karl Rove destroying what credibility he had. He had credibility to start the day? That's news to me. Actually, the modern American political scene was largely shaped by Karl Rove's 2000 campaign plan. The political activation of the Republican base was largely his doing, and the polarization of the nation was a strategic plan of his. Target the 51% while antagonizing the 49%. Very successful, actually.
Oh please, let's not give Rove too much credit. The genesis of that was born in the late 70's and early 80's. That was where Reagan's "welfare queen" nonsense came from, along with the birth of conservative pundits like Rush Limbaugh and their listeners. From then, the machine just got bigger and bigger: the growth of the conservative echo-chamber that helped turn the word "liberal" into a slur.
All Rove did was use the machine that was already there and turn up the volume.
On November 07 2012 13:54 ampson wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 13:51 Plexa wrote:On November 07 2012 13:50 ampson wrote:On November 07 2012 13:48 Ben... wrote:
Fox already doomsaying about Obama's second term.
Also, on Romney "He came pretty close."
HA Romney came pretty damn close, one must consider that Obama has the enormous incumbent advantage. Romney is still winning the popular vote, and will pull in over 200 electoral votes. Two months ago anyone would tell you it would be an Obama landslide. It was close. He's only up on Obama by 100k votes atm. Just wait until the final count is in. I realize that, and Obama will probably win the popular vote by a million or two. But the point is that he was making it out like there was no competition, when a few thousand votes in Ohio and Florida could have changed the outcome of the election.
Not given the BBC's map at present. According to them, they could flip Ohio, Florida, and Virginia to Romney and Obama would still have 272. So yeah, after all that fuss and campaigning... Obama doesn't even need to win one of those swing states to still win.
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EPT
