TL Chess Match 4 - Page 99

unless NxN,....b4 should be our next move, but I like your Rb1 too......

The idea of 17. b3 is to hold the position together and give us a bit of room to develop until we're ready to do something more permanent about the b-pawn. Here's some analysis. It ended up taking much, much longer than I had planned, and towards the end I'm afraid that my helpful comments end up petering out as I just wanted to get it all down on paper and go to sleep. Sorry about that.

16... Bb7 17. b3 c5 (obviously not Black's only move, but b3 being a non-forcing move, I was unable to look at all of Black's possible responses. It was hard enough even to thoroughly analyze this one. However, ...c5 is a part of Black's overall attacking plan here, and the following line has Black pursuing his attack as quickly as possible, so hopefully this is at least a decent sample of what the position holds.)
18. dxc5 Bxc5 (18...Nxd2 is also possible, perhaps better)
19. Nxe4 dxe4 (forced, to recapture the Knight)
20. Nd2 f5 (forced, to defend the pawn)
21. b4 Bd4 (the Bishop has to move. It doesn't have to go to d4, but this seems to be Black's most aggressive try: if it goes somewhere else, White has another tempo to defend against the coming attack; also, if it goes to d6, it can be chased by Nc4, and if it leaves the a7-g1 diagonal, the strength of Black's attack is reduced)
22. Rb1 Rhg8 (not forced, but a logical way to press the attack, and I don't see something better. ...h5 is slow, ...f4 allows Nxe4, ...e3 drops a pawn for no reason, ...a5 seems to fail to Nb3, ...Bc3 looks slightly menacing but it helps us develop a Rook to the third rank with tempo and doesn't seem to give Black all that much for it, other moves don't threaten us.)
23. Nb3 e3 (here more prudent moves are certainly possible, but it should be noted that any move that takes the Bishop off the a7-g1 diagonal allows us to trade off Black's light-squared Bishop with Nc5+, eliminating much of the pressure from our position, if we feel the necessity. ...Bd6 may be worth a look, but I chose Black's most aggressive line. Also note that this move will probably be played at some point as part of Black's attack, so playing it without delay is probably Black's most efficient way to press the attack.)
24. Bxe3 Rxg2+ (otherwise 23...e3 was purposeless)
25. Kf1 Bxe3 (Black must do something about the hanging Bishop now. Again, other moves might be possible, but the possibility of Nc5+ must be kept in mind, especially with the g2 Rook defended only by the Bishop).
26. Rxe3 Rxh2 (...Rbg8 can be met by Rg3 [again, the threat of Nc5+ is crucial] and most other moves can be met by Rh3 and/or Nc5+)
27. Rd1+ Kc7 (...Kc8 virtually loses off the bat with Rc3+)
+ Show Spoiler [27...Kc6] +
28. Rc3+ Kb6 (...Bc6 loses the Bishop to the pin)
29. Rd6+ Kb5 (...Bc6 loses the Bishop immediately)
30. Re6 (forestalling ...Re8, [which would threaten checkmate] while preparing the threat of Re5+)
+ Show Spoiler [30...Ka4] +
+ Show Spoiler [30...Ba6] +
+ Show Spoiler [30...Rc8 (and most other moves as well)] +
+ Show Spoiler [30...Rh4] +
+ Show Spoiler [30...Rg8] +
30....Rd8 31. Rc5+ Ka4 32. Re3 Kxa3 33. Na5+ Kxb4 34. Nxb7 Rd7 35. Rcc3 Rd2 36. Rf3
PGN viewer.

This line wins a Bishop for two pawns. The 30...Rh4 lines (which are better) may apply here as well, but I'm too tired to check.

After 16...Nd6, 17. b4 may well be a good move: at first glance it looked all right, although I haven't spent very long on those lines. Hopefully other people have and can fill in the gaps.

After 16...Bb7, though, I strongly feel that 17. b4 should not be our next move (and so does mastergriggy). If you agree that after 17...a5, we're forced (within a move or two) to play bxa5, then why would you want to play b4 now? Opening up the b-file right now tends to strengthen Black's attack, from all I've seen. Even if you think that we can survive that, what benefit do you see in b4 over, say, b3? The major benefits of b4 over b3 that I know of are 1) that it prevents ...c5 and 2) that it doesn't tie down our pieces as much to defend it. After ...bxa5, neither of these is true anymore.

As for 17. Rb1, I think it's probably playable, but after looking at the position some more, I switched to 17. b3 because of the annoying ...Nc3 (attacking b1) which becomes possible as soon as we push the b-pawn. To eliminate that move from consideration, I'd prefer to have the Bishop on b2 before playing Rb1, which means b3 has to be played first. Just a question of move order.

Mastergriggy's suggestion of 17. Nh4 is a tactical idea which looks surprising at first glance, but so far seems to hold up. It's another strong possibility for us, in my opinion.

But b4...well, you've heard why I don't like it. What do you see in it?

After, 17. Bxd2 Rxb2 18. Bc3 Rb3 our position sucks and we lose a pawn.

After, 17. Nxd2 we don't lose our pawn. Having a pawn and a good position is always better than not having a pawn and having a bad position.

I kinda want to throw out some ideas about where we go from here. As far as I can tell, black will probably play one of these moves: Rhg8, c5, Ba6, or Rhe8.

+ Show Spoiler [17...c5] +
+ Show Spoiler [17...Ba6] +
+ Show Spoiler [17...Rg8] +
+ Show Spoiler [17...Re8] +

don't forget about 17...a5. I think it's a fairly strong move for all the reasons that it's always been: it discourages b4, threatens a4, and in short strengthens Black's grip on the Queenside. In particular, if Black is considering ...Ba6, he's probably giving serious consideration to playing ...a5 first, before the Bishop blocks that.

I haven't looked too deeply into this position yet, and it's always possible that I've missed some specific tactical reason that Black will forgo this move, but even if that's the case, I think we ought to address this move in the analysis (as last turn we addressed 16...f5?).