Welcome to Bangkok and the final Minor Championship of the season! Squished in between the Majors in Moscow and Changsha, GESC is extremely important despite its reduced scope. For many of the attending teams this is their final chance to gain some of the dwindling available DPC points if they failed to make it through the qualifiers for the last 3 majors. While a direct invite for TI is out of reach for most teams, even a small amount of points could help them avoid running the gauntlet of the open qualifiers.
The overwhelming favorite - Team Secret
Running at the forefront of the competitors are Team Secret. While Puppey & Co. are clearly the favorites their recent performance has been quite lackluster, as they only marginally improved from their Top 12 at DAC to a Top 8 finish at Epicenter. For a team who is by many considered still among the Top 3 in the world, the last two tournaments have been quite the rude awakening. Competing against the arguably vastly weaker field in Bangkok might be exactly the thing they need to rebuild their confidence before they head into the last 2 Majors, since they are skipping ESL One Birmingham. With a win in Bangkok, Secret can also finally punch their tickets to Vancouver, so we both hope and expect them to show their best.
Within Striking Distance - EG & Fnatic
Blocking the easy road to the championship for Secret are EG and Fnatic. Both still in desperate need of DPC points to maybe sneak into the Top 8 cutoff for direct invites to Vancouver, Bangkok is of paramount importance for them. A win in Thailand would certainly lessen the pressure they will have in the subsequent majors. While they should be favored against anyone besides the somewhat struggling Secret, both teams need to show up with consistency to make sure they can not only challenge Team Secret but also keep the rest of the field at bay.
The Others
To say that all the other 6 teams are completely without chance would be doing them a disservice, although the gap between them and the aforementioned 3 is quite apparent. Especially if we keep in mind the format of a Bo1 group stage and single elimination which gives us the opportunity for upsets. Most likely to score these upsets would be VGJ.Storm and Vega Squadron. VGJ.Storm has grown into a much more serious contender in the NA scene, even besting EG and Optic for the qualifiers to MDL Changsha and will try to mount the challenge head on with their new addition to the team in Resolut1on. For Vega, unfortunately they have had to pull out from the tournament citing Visa issues as the cause. For the other teams we do not expect too much out of them; while The Final Tribe has won a couple of European qualifiers recently they are still very much a mediocre team. Maybe Keen Gaming can also surprise us considering the depth of the Chinese region, but there is little hope for SG or the local qualifier team Alpha Red to make much of an impact.
Regardless of who you cheer for, make sure to tune in for the final Minor Championship of the Season as these precious DPC points become even more rare
yeah this is going to be extremely important for them. It's also a shame Vega Squadron won't be attending although I guess that is one potential threat gone for EG/Fnatic.
On May 07 2018 20:35 ShiaoPi wrote: For Vega, unfortunately they have had to pull out from the tournament citing Visa issues as the cause.
On May 07 2018 20:41 OmniEulogy wrote: It's also a shame Vega Squadron won't be attending
Liquepedia still shows Vega Squadron listed for the tournament. Are they playing? If not, who is the replacement?
On May 07 2018 20:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
Blocking the easy road to the championship for Secret are EG and Fnatic. Both still in desperate need of DPC points to maybe sneak into the Top 8 cutoff for direct invites to Vancouver, Bangkok is of paramount importance for them. As they both only attend one out of the 3 final Majors of the season (ESL One Birmingham).
EG is playing in 2 majors, ESL and Supermajor. Fnatic has only 1 major to play, not EG.
This tournament actually only matters for Fnatic if they win it.
They need 985 points to pass VGJ.T (assuming they don't receive any more points themselves). If they get second at ESL Birmingham, they'll get the points they need regardless. If they get third at Birmingham, they would still be 310 points short of a TI invite, which they could only overcome by getting first at GESC (second place would only provide them with 270 points, just a bit short of the invite threshold). Thus, if no other team relevant to the discussion receives points (VGJ, VG, EG, OpTic, TnC, Na'Vi), then a win a GESC gives them the option of getting third at Birmingham instead of second to try to qualify directly to TI.
If Vici Gaming becomes the new target (assuming Evil Geniuses can pass VGJ.T too), then their performance at GESC doesn't matter anymore; since they're over 1,000 points behind Vici Gaming then they'll need to get second at ESL Birminham to pass up Vici; a first at GESC and a third at ESL won't be enough.
GESC is important but doesn't matter near as much as Birmingham; Fnatic needs to dominate Birmingham or they are eliminated no matter what they do at GESC.
On May 07 2018 23:51 MetalMercury wrote: This tournament actually only matters for Fnatic if they win it.
They need 985 points to pass VGJ.T (assuming they don't receive any more points themselves). If they get second at ESL Birmingham, they'll get the points they need regardless. If they get third at Birmingham, they would still be 310 points short of a TI invite, which they could only overcome by getting first at GESC (second place would only provide them with 270 points, just a bit short of the invite threshold). Thus, if no other team relevant to the discussion receives points (VGJ, VG, EG, OpTic, TnC, Na'Vi), then a win a GESC gives them the option of getting third at Birmingham instead of second to try to qualify directly to TI.
If Vici Gaming becomes the new target (assuming Evil Geniuses can pass VGJ.T too), then their performance at GESC doesn't matter anymore; since they're over 1,000 points behind Vici Gaming then they'll need to get second at ESL Birminham to pass up Vici; a first at GESC and a third at ESL won't be enough.
GESC is important but doesn't matter near as much as Birmingham; Fnatic needs to dominate Birmingham or they are eliminated no matter what they do at GESC.
EG actually plays 2 more majors (The post doesn't say that, but its wrong), so theoretically they can still qualify easy even if they cannot get any points here. But I am sure they want the win as 1 win here and two 4th places (or one 3rd place) in majors can give them the TI invite. If they fail to get any points here however, even if they get 4th place in both the majors (or 3rd place in 1 major) they won't go past Vici Gaming.
This tournament is actually very important for both EG and Fnatic, and also for non-participating teams like Na'vi, VGJ.Thunder, Vici Gaming and Newbee.
This tournament is also very important for Secret as they would love to be back in form right before TI, and finding a new touch will be very difficult in the fierce competition of the majors compared to GESC.
Edit : A minor without any CIS qualifier (rather without any CIS team). Didn't Valve say that for a tournament to have major / minor status, there would have to be qualifiers from all 6 primary regions (EU, CIS, SEA, CN, NA, SA) in the tournament? Is it too late to fly in Team Spirit or Na'vi?
It might be a bit of a stretch, but it wouldn't be too far off to see KG and VG.J UStorm be the best teams here, at least judging from recent performance. Both EG and Fnatic seem to have gotten "stuck" between mediocre - good (might sound harsh, but thats considering their players) this season, it could ofc change near TI but I'm not too convinced, they'll probably be stronger next season. As for secret, they never seem to get that consistent, it feels like thats always been the case with the team ( all iterations)
Im kinda cheering for VGJ and Abed. Interesting tournament nonetheless, imo no clear favourite so its prolly gonna be fun!
EG is probably a better team than Secret in Secret's current state, wouldn't call Secret the overwhelming favorite unless we're only looking at DPC standings
On May 08 2018 04:51 Chillander wrote: It might be a bit of a stretch, but it wouldn't be too far off to see KG and VG.J UStorm be the best teams here, at least judging from recent performance. Both EG and Fnatic seem to have gotten "stuck" between mediocre - good (might sound harsh, but thats considering their players) this season, it could ofc change near TI but I'm not too convinced, they'll probably be stronger next season. As for secret, they never seem to get that consistent, it feels like thats always been the case with the team ( all iterations)
Im kinda cheering for VGJ and Abed. Interesting tournament nonetheless, imo no clear favourite so its prolly gonna be fun!
KG and VGJ.Storm will only waste points if they get to top 4; that's good for VGJ.Thunder, Vici Gaming and Newbee though.
I am hoping for Fnatic vs Evil Geniuses grand finals, but Keen Gaming, VGJ.Storm and (of course) Team Secret are all very capable of taking this minor for themselves.
PS : I asked in a previous comment, is it not possible for GESC to fly in any CIS team? Otherwise this tournament (being a minor) won't happen in compliance with Valve declaration at the start of the season.
On May 07 2018 23:51 MetalMercury wrote: This tournament actually only matters for Fnatic if they win it.
They need 985 points to pass VGJ.T (assuming they don't receive any more points themselves). If they get second at ESL Birmingham, they'll get the points they need regardless. If they get third at Birmingham, they would still be 310 points short of a TI invite, which they could only overcome by getting first at GESC (second place would only provide them with 270 points, just a bit short of the invite threshold). Thus, if no other team relevant to the discussion receives points (VGJ, VG, EG, OpTic, TnC, Na'Vi), then a win a GESC gives them the option of getting third at Birmingham instead of second to try to qualify directly to TI.
If Vici Gaming becomes the new target (assuming Evil Geniuses can pass VGJ.T too), then their performance at GESC doesn't matter anymore; since they're over 1,000 points behind Vici Gaming then they'll need to get second at ESL Birminham to pass up Vici; a first at GESC and a third at ESL won't be enough.
GESC is important but doesn't matter near as much as Birmingham; Fnatic needs to dominate Birmingham or they are eliminated no matter what they do at GESC.
EG actually plays 2 more majors (The post doesn't say that, but its wrong), so theoretically they can still qualify easy even if they cannot get any points here. But I am sure they want the win as 1 win here and two 4th places (or one 3rd place) in majors can give them the TI invite. If they fail to get any points here however, even if they get 4th place in both the majors (or 3rd place in 1 major) they won't go past Vici Gaming.
This tournament is actually very important for both EG and Fnatic, and also for non-participating teams like Na'vi, VGJ.Thunder, Vici Gaming and Newbee.
This tournament is also very important for Secret as they would love to be back in form right before TI, and finding a new touch will be very difficult in the fierce competition of the majors compared to GESC.
Edit : A minor without any CIS qualifier (rather without any CIS team). Didn't Valve say that for a tournament to have major / minor status, there would have to be qualifiers from all 6 primary regions (EU, CIS, SEA, CN, NA, SA) in the tournament? Is it too late to fly in Team Spirit or Na'vi?
It's really not that important for Fnatic at all; if they win here it changes their requirement at Birmingham to third place instead of second place but otherwise the only way they end up displacing anyone is with a second place at Birmingham.
On May 07 2018 23:51 MetalMercury wrote: This tournament actually only matters for Fnatic if they win it.
They need 985 points to pass VGJ.T (assuming they don't receive any more points themselves). If they get second at ESL Birmingham, they'll get the points they need regardless. If they get third at Birmingham, they would still be 310 points short of a TI invite, which they could only overcome by getting first at GESC (second place would only provide them with 270 points, just a bit short of the invite threshold). Thus, if no other team relevant to the discussion receives points (VGJ, VG, EG, OpTic, TnC, Na'Vi), then a win a GESC gives them the option of getting third at Birmingham instead of second to try to qualify directly to TI.
If Vici Gaming becomes the new target (assuming Evil Geniuses can pass VGJ.T too), then their performance at GESC doesn't matter anymore; since they're over 1,000 points behind Vici Gaming then they'll need to get second at ESL Birminham to pass up Vici; a first at GESC and a third at ESL won't be enough.
GESC is important but doesn't matter near as much as Birmingham; Fnatic needs to dominate Birmingham or they are eliminated no matter what they do at GESC.
EG actually plays 2 more majors (The post doesn't say that, but its wrong), so theoretically they can still qualify easy even if they cannot get any points here. But I am sure they want the win as 1 win here and two 4th places (or one 3rd place) in majors can give them the TI invite. If they fail to get any points here however, even if they get 4th place in both the majors (or 3rd place in 1 major) they won't go past Vici Gaming.
This tournament is actually very important for both EG and Fnatic, and also for non-participating teams like Na'vi, VGJ.Thunder, Vici Gaming and Newbee.
This tournament is also very important for Secret as they would love to be back in form right before TI, and finding a new touch will be very difficult in the fierce competition of the majors compared to GESC.
Edit : A minor without any CIS qualifier (rather without any CIS team). Didn't Valve say that for a tournament to have major / minor status, there would have to be qualifiers from all 6 primary regions (EU, CIS, SEA, CN, NA, SA) in the tournament? Is it too late to fly in Team Spirit or Na'vi?
It's really not that important for Fnatic at all; if they win here it changes their requirement at Birmingham to third place instead of second place but otherwise the only way they end up displacing anyone is with a second place at Birmingham.
Well, not having to win a BO3 against one of the last 4 teams at a major does seem like a big help to me.
If Fnatic win this it will only help them at the semi-final at ESL where they can afford to lose 1 extra series and still qualify, everything else remains the same, considering that the cut-off for invites is still 1935 DPC points.
But in reality, that cut-off should go up (EG and Na'vi can easily cross 1935 DPC points with a good show at 1 major, VGJ.Thunder can also get some points at Supermajor and increase their tally from 1935). So ideally, Fnatic would want to reach 7th spot atleast in the DPC ladder by end of ESL (Since Na'vi, EG and VGJ.Thunder all play in the last major while Fnatic does not) to feel confident about a TI invite.
So I would still go by what I posted, this tournament is really very important for both EG and Fnatic (I guess more for Fnatic as they have only 1 major to play after this while EG has 2).
On May 07 2018 23:51 MetalMercury wrote: This tournament actually only matters for Fnatic if they win it.
They need 985 points to pass VGJ.T (assuming they don't receive any more points themselves). If they get second at ESL Birmingham, they'll get the points they need regardless. If they get third at Birmingham, they would still be 310 points short of a TI invite, which they could only overcome by getting first at GESC (second place would only provide them with 270 points, just a bit short of the invite threshold). Thus, if no other team relevant to the discussion receives points (VGJ, VG, EG, OpTic, TnC, Na'Vi), then a win a GESC gives them the option of getting third at Birmingham instead of second to try to qualify directly to TI.
If Vici Gaming becomes the new target (assuming Evil Geniuses can pass VGJ.T too), then their performance at GESC doesn't matter anymore; since they're over 1,000 points behind Vici Gaming then they'll need to get second at ESL Birminham to pass up Vici; a first at GESC and a third at ESL won't be enough.
GESC is important but doesn't matter near as much as Birmingham; Fnatic needs to dominate Birmingham or they are eliminated no matter what they do at GESC.
EG actually plays 2 more majors (The post doesn't say that, but its wrong), so theoretically they can still qualify easy even if they cannot get any points here. But I am sure they want the win as 1 win here and two 4th places (or one 3rd place) in majors can give them the TI invite. If they fail to get any points here however, even if they get 4th place in both the majors (or 3rd place in 1 major) they won't go past Vici Gaming
This tournament is actually very important for both EG and Fnatic, and also for non-participating teams like Na'vi, VGJ.Thunder, Vici Gaming and Newbee.
This tournament is also very important for Secret as they would love to be back in form right before TI, and finding a new touch will be very difficult in the fierce competition of the majors compared to GESC.
Edit : A minor without any CIS qualifier (rather without any CIS team). Didn't Valve say that for a tournament to have major / minor status, there would have to be qualifiers from all 6 primary regions (EU, CIS, SEA, CN, NA, SA) in the tournament? Is it too late to fly in Team Spirit or Na'vi?
It's really not that important for Fnatic at all; if they win here it changes their requirement at Birmingham to third place instead of second place but otherwise the only way they end up displacing anyone is with a second place at Birmingham.
Well, not having to win a BO3 against one of the last 4 teams at a major does seem like a big help to me.
If Fnatic win this it will only help them at the semi-final at ESL where they can afford to lose 1 extra series and still qualify, everything else remains the same, considering that the cut-off for invites is still 1935 DPC points.
But in reality, that cut-off should go up (EG and Na'vi can easily cross 1935 DPC points with a good show at 1 major, VGJ.Thunder can also get some points at Supermajor and increase their tally from 1935). So ideally, Fnatic would want to reach 7th spot atleast in the DPC ladder by end of ESL (Since Na'vi, EG and VGJ.Thunder all play in the last major while Fnatic does not) to feel confident about a TI invite.
So I would still go by what I posted, this tournament is really very important for both EG and Fnatic (I guess more for Fnatic as they have only 1 major to play after this while EG has 2).
If you think that VGJ.Thunder will no longer be the new target, then this tournament doesn't matter at all. All that would matter in that case is that Fnatic has to get at least second in Birmingham and then get lucky that no one manages to pass them in the Super Major.
This tournament is way more important to EG, as they are close enough to VGJ.Thunder that a win here will put them in place to actually leap frog VGJ on two occasions, of which they'd only have to get 4th twice or 3rd or better once. That's a huge deal to them.
Fnatic's placement here is pretty much irrelevant to their chances at TI (especially if VGJ.Thunder isn't the target); they are forced to get at least 2nd at Birmingham or they will not make TI. The point here won't change any critical threshold to matter.
On May 07 2018 23:51 MetalMercury wrote: This tournament actually only matters for Fnatic if they win it.
They need 985 points to pass VGJ.T (assuming they don't receive any more points themselves). If they get second at ESL Birmingham, they'll get the points they need regardless. If they get third at Birmingham, they would still be 310 points short of a TI invite, which they could only overcome by getting first at GESC (second place would only provide them with 270 points, just a bit short of the invite threshold). Thus, if no other team relevant to the discussion receives points (VGJ, VG, EG, OpTic, TnC, Na'Vi), then a win a GESC gives them the option of getting third at Birmingham instead of second to try to qualify directly to TI.
If Vici Gaming becomes the new target (assuming Evil Geniuses can pass VGJ.T too), then their performance at GESC doesn't matter anymore; since they're over 1,000 points behind Vici Gaming then they'll need to get second at ESL Birminham to pass up Vici; a first at GESC and a third at ESL won't be enough.
GESC is important but doesn't matter near as much as Birmingham; Fnatic needs to dominate Birmingham or they are eliminated no matter what they do at GESC.
EG actually plays 2 more majors (The post doesn't say that, but its wrong), so theoretically they can still qualify easy even if they cannot get any points here. But I am sure they want the win as 1 win here and two 4th places (or one 3rd place) in majors can give them the TI invite. If they fail to get any points here however, even if they get 4th place in both the majors (or 3rd place in 1 major) they won't go past Vici Gaming
This tournament is actually very important for both EG and Fnatic, and also for non-participating teams like Na'vi, VGJ.Thunder, Vici Gaming and Newbee.
This tournament is also very important for Secret as they would love to be back in form right before TI, and finding a new touch will be very difficult in the fierce competition of the majors compared to GESC.
Edit : A minor without any CIS qualifier (rather without any CIS team). Didn't Valve say that for a tournament to have major / minor status, there would have to be qualifiers from all 6 primary regions (EU, CIS, SEA, CN, NA, SA) in the tournament? Is it too late to fly in Team Spirit or Na'vi?
It's really not that important for Fnatic at all; if they win here it changes their requirement at Birmingham to third place instead of second place but otherwise the only way they end up displacing anyone is with a second place at Birmingham.
Well, not having to win a BO3 against one of the last 4 teams at a major does seem like a big help to me.
If Fnatic win this it will only help them at the semi-final at ESL where they can afford to lose 1 extra series and still qualify, everything else remains the same, considering that the cut-off for invites is still 1935 DPC points.
But in reality, that cut-off should go up (EG and Na'vi can easily cross 1935 DPC points with a good show at 1 major, VGJ.Thunder can also get some points at Supermajor and increase their tally from 1935). So ideally, Fnatic would want to reach 7th spot atleast in the DPC ladder by end of ESL (Since Na'vi, EG and VGJ.Thunder all play in the last major while Fnatic does not) to feel confident about a TI invite.
So I would still go by what I posted, this tournament is really very important for both EG and Fnatic (I guess more for Fnatic as they have only 1 major to play after this while EG has 2).
If you think that VGJ.Thunder will no longer be the new target, then this tournament doesn't matter at all. All that would matter in that case is that Fnatic has to get at least second in Birmingham and then get lucky that no one manages to pass them in the Super Major.
This tournament is way more important to EG, as they are close enough to VGJ.Thunder that a win here will put them in place to actually leap frog VGJ on two occasions, of which they'd only have to get 4th twice or 3rd or better once. That's a huge deal to them.
Fnatic's placement here is pretty much irrelevant to their chances at TI (especially if VGJ.Thunder isn't the target); they are forced to get at least 2nd at Birmingham or they will not make TI. The point here won't change any critical threshold to matter.
I am sorry but I don't get your point at all. How can you say 450 points this close to the end of season don't matter for a team placed 11th on the table, and with the last 3 qualifying teams on the table being within 300 points of each other?
I think you are looking at the numbers and taking them as the final numbers, but all these teams still have DPC tournaments to play; so it is most likely the numbers would change.
Edit : As per your explanation also, those 450 points will help Fnatic a lot if they want to get 'lucky' after finishing second at ESL.
On May 08 2018 04:55 TomatoBisque wrote: EG is probably a better team than Secret in Secret's current state, wouldn't call Secret the overwhelming favorite unless we're only looking at DPC standings
It's hard to say at the moment, but EG would definitely try to make the most of this tournament so they can qualify. It'll be interesting to see if the other teams such as Tribe, Fnatic and Keen to showcase what they have or they'll just have to play in regionals
Secret does appear to be struggling for consistency with two of their minor successes having situational elements (no liquid miracle and captains draft [though yes the for the latter one could argue that's great drafting skills]). The major 1st and 2nd places seem a long time ago. They appear to be are a bit like the french rugby team or chelsea pre-money, they can have storming games then lose when you do not expect them to. Let us hope the flair team comes back.
DPC points need to be less top heavy, especially as a DPC win at the start of the season is effectively worth more due to the positive feedback effect if has on invites to subsequent events.
On May 08 2018 17:25 svimes wrote: DPC points need to be less top heavy, especially as a DPC win at the start of the season is effectively worth more due to the positive feedback effect if has on invites to subsequent events.
I agree. If you win big tournaments at the start of the season, you keep getting invites throughout most of the season even if you don't win anything.
I think the invite system should change. When the Dota circuit has points based ranking system, it does not make too much sense to invite 6-10 out of 16 teams at a major event. Also as stated above, these invites are not always the teams playing the best at the given moment. I think invites should be capped off at 2 or 3 at the most and rest should qualify, at least for the majors.
EPT
